Foto: Diliff . Corea y Tailandia, economías beneficiadas por la nueva política monetaria de Japón
Emerging Asian currencies, which already appreciated by a large margin versus the JPY shortly after the election of Shinjo Abe as Japan’s prime minister, appreciated even further after BoJ’s announcement on monetary policies, clouding the outlook for economies and assets in the region.
Axa’s IM analysis pinpoints the key recipients of Japanese financial flows in Emerging Asia, i.e., the economies in the region that will potentially benefit from Japan’s excessive easing.
Currently, more than 7% of Japanese bank lending is cross-border lending to emerging Asia, and according to Axa, the trend will most likely accelerate after the BoJ’s unprecedented monetary easing was announced, since interest rate margins are more favorable in Emerging Asia than in Japan.
Japanese portfolio investors primarily favor assets issued by Emerging Asian issuers over other emerging market regions
Axa IM classifies the various economies in Emerging Asia as belonging to one of three different groups depending on the share of domestic lending contributed by Japanese banks. In the first group, they position countries where the share overshoots 10% of total domestic lending, hovering at around 15% (Singapore and Thailand). In the second group, they have countries where the share is between 5% and 10% (Indonesia, Hong Kong and Philippines). And in the third, the share is below 5% (China, Taiwan, India, Korea and Malaysia).
The four economies in the region where credit growth is the most excessive are also the four locations where the share of lending by Japanese banks to total domestic lending is the highest (Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand).
Another channel through which Japanese liquidity is finding its way to Emerging Asia is through portfolio investments, which include the purchase of stocks and bonds (sovereign and company debt instruments).
Portfolio investment by Japanese investors to emerging markets has been growing steadily since 2002, from 2.5% of total Japanese portfolio investment abroad in 2002 to 4% in 2011. Japanese portfolio investors primarily favor assets issued by Emerging Asian issuers over other emerging market regions.
Japanese portfolio investors continue to prefer mostly equities in China, Taiwan, India, Thailand, Indonesia and Singapore, while they prefer debt securities in the Philippines, Korea and Malaysia. In 2011, they began holding more debt securities in Thailand, India, the Philippines and Korea.
Japanese liquidity finds its way to Emerging Asia through Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) as well. Japanese FDIs are particularly large relative to the size of the economy in Singapore and Thailand.
According to Axa’s analysis, Korea and Thailand have the potential to attract more Japanese FDIs, while Singapore and Hong Kong more portfolio investments. Thailand and Singapore will attract more lending from Japanese banks, too. “These findings are further supported by stock valuations, namely the P/Es which signal that these economies are the cheapest in Emerging Asia, as well paving the way to more financial flows from Japan”, concludes the report.
Wikimedia CommonsLeonardo Vilar, chairman of Fedesarrollo. "Economic growth, savings, and the Colombian financial sector may get affected if the new pension reform gets passed"
The entrance into operation of the private pension system in Colombia has generated “significant impact” on the economic growth, the increase of savings and to a greater extent the financial system. In terms of growth, the annual increase ranges between 0.3% and 0.8%; as far as the savings, the annual increase is 1.5% of the GDP, while the financial depth increased 0.19% of the GDP. These are some of the conclusions that Fedesarrollo came to, after conducting a study about the impact of a reform on the Pension System in Colombia, and which they explained this past Friday during the second working day of the VI Asofondo Congress and the XI International Congress of the International Federation of Pension Fund Manager (FIAP).
Fedesarollo, one of the most important economic research centers in Colombia, revealed the results from a recent study, whose objective was to measure the effect caused by the creation of the Individual Savings System (pension funds) over the economic development of the country.
In this direction, the director of Fedesarrollo, Leonardo Villar, emphasized that “without any doubt, the pension reform, which gave life to the individual saving system, has benefited the economic development of the country, with important effects which could increase if the informality and the employment were lower in Colombia”.
In regards to the reform of the Pension system, whose Bill will be presented to the Congress in the upcoming weeks, Villar stated that “preliminary estimates shows that an amount of $4.1 billion will stop going to the Individual Savings System in order to pass over to the public system, as it is presented in the proposal by the national government”.
“This reform has a cost in terms of growth. How much? A reduction between 6 to 20 basis points of the economy, with a negative impact in regards to the savings and the financial depth”, Villar assured.
The researcher explained that what is known in regards to the proposal up until now is only partial, meaning that its fiscal impact and other side-effects are still unknown. He further stated that some aspects related to tax savings, transitional regimes, and special schemes, still need to be clarified. In any case, the country will choose a structural reform that will allow “a totally acceptable retirement system” and that will offset the possible side-effect that might come with it.
Wikimedia CommonsAndrew Kelly (right) at Charlie Bartlett´s awards ceremony with KJ Choi in Augusta (GA). Aberdeen moves Andrew Kelly to New York as Head of Marketing for the Americas
Aberdeen moved Andrew Kelly from London to New York, where he will be responsible of the Marketing Division of the Americas.
Kelly, 33 years old and originally from New Zealand, worked at Aberdeen from 2005 up until 2010. He held several positions during this time, including the last three years as the Head of Marketing of the Group.From2010-2012he worked atGoldmanSachsAsset Management at the InternationalMarketingdepartment,division focusedoninstitutional channelsin Germany, Beneluxand Middle East. After this two years, last year returned to Aberdeen, where he focused in Europe before moving to New York.
Kellyhas a degree inMarketingand Finance fromthe University ofOtago, NewZealand.
Foto: Alvesgaspar . Japón supera a China en expectativas: los inversores aprueban el fenómeno Abenomics
Global investors are moderating their earlier exuberance in the face of somewhat lower conviction over global growth, though they remain positive towards equity markets overall, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for April.
“European expectations and risk appetite are moderating as global caution over the region wins out”
A net 49 percent of respondents now expect the global economy to strengthen in the next 12 months. This is a decline of as much as 12 percentage points from March. While the threat of a U.S. fiscal crisis has largely receded, anxiety over the eurozone and new risks – particularly the potential for conflict in Korea – has intensified. A “hard landing” in China also remains a concern.
Investors’ more cautious stance is reflected in their increased cash holdings. These are now at the highest level reported by the survey in six months (4.3 percent).
Fund managers showed sharper regional preferences than they have in past surveys. They are increasingly positive towards the U.S. and Japan, where 12-month views have reached their most bullish in seven years. Appetite for exposure to the U.S. dollar remains at the highest level in the survey’s history.
At the same time, panelists have grown more negative on both emerging markets and the eurozone. A small majority now look to underweight emerging markets – the survey’s weakest reading on this measure in over two years after a 30-point decline in just two months. Confidence in eurozone growth also fell sharply this month. A net 19 percent of regional investors expect the region to strengthen this year, down from March’s net 40 percent.
“‘Abenomics’ signals that Japanese policy-makers are joining the fight against deflation. This reinforces our expectation of a ‘Great Rotation’ into equities from fixed income,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. “European expectations and risk appetite are moderating as global caution over the region wins out,” added John Bilton, European investment strategist.
Eurozone confidence declines
Lower confidence in eurozone growth is reflected in global investors’ move to a net 8 percent underweight. Regional investors sharply cut cyclical exposures such as Construction (down 38 percentage points), Basic Resources (down 22 points) and Oil & Gas (down 17 points) this month, while increasing defensive plays like Healthcare/Pharma (up 20 percentage points to a net overweight).
In a new question for the survey, fund managers were asked what event would be most positive for European risk appetite. More than half of respondents identified steps towards a regional banking union and agreement on structural reforms in key periphery economies. Given the inter-connection between eurozone banks and sovereigns, this reinforces the regional risks highlighted elsewhere in the survey.
Japan surpasses China
Confidence in Japan’s new expansionary policy is evident in the survey. Every regional fund manager polled expects the economy to strengthen over the next 12 months. Global investors also expect the policy shift to weaken the yen. Their appetite for the currency is now at its lowest since February 2002.
In contrast, bullishness on China is evaporating. A net 13 percent of regional investors now expect the country’s economy to strengthen in the next 12 months, down from a net 71 percent as recently as January. The survey’s global reading on this question is now down to its lowest level since last October.
Call for capex
The survey continues to highlight fund managers’ call for companies to put their significant volumes of cash to work, or to return it to their owners. With a net 60 percent regarding companies as underinvesting in their businesses, 48 percent would most like to see excess corporate cash flow directed to higher capital spending. Thirty-four percent want surplus funds distributed back to them through buy-backs or dividends, with only a far lower 11 percent viewing the reinforcement of balance sheets as a priority.
Despite this call for higher capex and their still-benign macroeconomic view, investors are more doubtful about prospects for significant global earnings growth. A net 38 percent now judge that companies are unlikely to raise EPS by as much as 10 percent this year. This stance has grown much more skeptical since March. Their expectations of corporate margin performance weakened similarly.
Stephen Thornber, gestor del fondo Threadneedle Global Equity Income Fund. ¿Busca dividendo? Cinco ideas de Threadneedle
Stephen Thornber, manager of the Threadneedle Global Equity Income Fund, picks five global stocks which are all yielding more than 5%:
Blackstone
Blackstone is the largest alternative asset manager in the world and is benefiting from a number of powerful drivers to its business. Banks around the world are being forced to de-leverage as tighter controls on capital are implemented by regulators, Blackstone with its strong capital base, ability to raise new funds and management skills, is ideally placed to acquire assets at attractive prices that the banks are being forced to sell. Demand for alternative investments is also growing as investors seek to diversify their investments and Blackstone has a strong brand, scale and a diversified long-life asset base. Together with a strong balance sheet and a commitment to an attractive dividend pay-out, Blackstone is yielding 6% currently and we believe this can grow by over 10% pa for the next few years.
Enterprise Products
Enterprise Products is a US utility company which operates oil and gas pipelines and transfer and storage facilities. Enterprise is benefitting from the growth in energy production from the US shale regions, production here has grown rapidly, but the necessary infrastructure is struggling to match this growth. Enterprise’s earnings are stable thanks to its long-term contracts, it has little energy price risk as most of its contracts are related to volumes, not value and it has a growth dimension unusual in the utility sector because it is expanding its pipeline network and signing new customers as shale production increases. Enterprise has a yield of 5% and has grown its dividend every year for the past 13 years.
NagaCorp
NagaCorp is a Cambodian casino and entertainment operator and has a 40 year exclusive casino licence for the capital Phnom Penh. Positioned in fast growing IndoChina, NagaCorp is leveraged to the region’s economic growth, increased tourism and the growing demand for gaming destinations. NagaCorp has a strong balance sheet, with no debt, low cost operations, a favourable tax regime and a significant expansion project underway that will double its capacity by 2015. NagaCorp is trading at a discount to the Macau casinos and pays a 5.5% dividend.
Prosafe
Prosafe is the world’s leading operator of floating accommodation rigs and provides accommodation rigs to energy companies to house their staff and contractors when they undertake maintenance on offshore fields. Demand is strong as offshore production activity increases, existing rigs age and require more maintenance, and also by tighter health and safety regulations. Prosafe operates the largest and most sophisticated fleet, meaning it can charge the highest rates and operate in the toughest environments. Prosafe has a yield of 5.8% which has grown by over $20 a year in the last 5 years, a strong balance sheet with very little debt and is investing in two new rigs to meet future demand.
Digi.com
Digi.com is the third largest mobile telecom company in Malaysia, Digi’s growth is being driven by strong economic growth in Malaysia, the increasing usage of mobile phones and the pickup of data usage as smartphones become a larger part of the mobile market. Digi currently yields over 5% and I expect its profits to grow by 20-25% this year. The company’s debt free balance sheet means management have committed to increasing its dividend in line with its profit growth. Digi is part owned by Telenor, the Norwegian telecoms company, who have introduced European style cash management systems and levels of corporate governance, reinforcing our confidence that the company can deliver earnings growth and a high and growing dividend in the next few years as mobile usage continues to grow in Malaysia.
Michael Strobaek. Michael Strobaek se suma a Credit Suisse como CIO de Banca Privada y Gestión de Patrimonio
Credit Suisse today announced that Michael Strobaek will join the bank as Chief Investment Officer for the Private Banking & Wealth Management division, effective May 1, 2013. In addition to this role, Strobaek will head the newly established Investment Strategy and Research Group within the division. He will report to Robert Shafir, Head Private Banking & Wealth Management Products.
The Investment Strategy and Research Group is comprised of the Global CIO Office, Research for Private Banking & Wealth Management, Regional CIOs and additional groups within the division that produce complementary investment content. Giles Keating, Head of Research for Private Banking & Wealth Management, will assume the role of Deputy Head of the Investment Strategy and Research Group in addition to his current role. Research will partner closely with the CIO office on actionable ideas, while retaining the independence of process.
Robert Shafir, Head Private Banking & Wealth Management Products, said: “We’re excited to have Michael joining Credit Suisse. He brings significant experience in financial markets to this role, including managing international investment management businesses. Michael’s skill set will enhance our ability to deliver our investment views and themes for the benefit of clients across all segments.”
Hans-Ulrich Meister, Head Private Banking, added: “The creation of the Investment Strategy and Research Group is an important step for the Private Banking & Wealth Management Division. It will enhance the value proposition for our clients. We look forward to working with Michael and are pleased to have him as part of our team.”
Michael Strobaek joins Credit Suisse from a Swiss family office, where he was CEO and CIO. Prior to that, Mr. Strobaek spent 13 years at UBS in a number of senior positions, most recently Head of Investment Management for Wealth Management, and prior to that Global Head of Investment Solutions.
Wikimedia CommonsBestinver’s XII Annual Investors Conference. Bestinver’s XII Annual Investors Conference: crisis-proof mutual funds
The Spanish boutique Bestinver held this evening its annual investors’ reunion in Madrid. Francisco Garcia Paramés, Alvaro Guzman de Lázaro and Fernando Bernad Marrase exposed, in front of an audience that exceeded 2000 people, the main keys to its domestic and international strategies.
Both strategies closed an exceptional 2012, outperforming index in 5 percentage points in the international fund, and a spectacular 15% in the domestic fund. It would seem as if Bestinver’s funds are not being affected at all by any crisis, regardless of where it comes from.
“We like the companies that have family members in their management team, it is fundamental to us”
This year the domestic portfolio -Bestinver Bolsa– turned 20 years – and the international strategy –Bestinver Internacional– turned 15. The asset manager has €6.5 billion in AuM (data as from the end of March, 2013) in all its strategies with quite a stable environment of inflows and outflows. Bestinver has ensured that there is no predetermined limit for the size of their funds, and they are not planning on closing the fund regardless of the inflows.
Bestinver’s managers exposed that the domestic portfolio has lowered its country risk, increasing its cash position and reducing the exposure to companies as Repsol, utilities or Pescanova, a position that Bestinver has reduced by 60% -from a 4% weight in the fund to 1.5% a the end of February- emphasizing that “they wish they had been able to unload the position even more”. Pescanova, that filed for pre-bankruptcy on February 28, and has been suspended of trading in the Spanish Stock Exchange since March 12th , is an example of the turn from more cyclical companies to more defensive ones that Bestinver has carried out in its portfolio since 2008. “Usually, we avoid commodity-related companies or companies that have a lot of debt”, explained the managers, who invest searching for high quality companies.
True to its value strategy, the portfolio of the international strategy has an estimated PE of 8.7x in 2013, which compares to a PE of 12.5x for the S&P500 Index. Another characteristic of Bestinver’s management style is its trust in the family run companies. “We like the companies that have family members in their management team, it is fundamental to us”, they state.
In regards to the Spanish real estate sector, Bestinver’s managers say that “they are not looking in that direction”, although on a personal note they do admit that the sector has been improving, and that in fact all three of them are taking their some steps on the housing market.
Yesterday, the Colombian government announced a package of measures to “boost productivity and employment” and enable “all the sectors of the economy to receive the benefits of economic growth.” Specifically, the government has been worried about the weakness of the non-mining tradable sectors, agriculture and manufacturing, says Luka Barbosa, economist of Itaú.
“Despite the high expectations created before the announcement, we expect the measures to have a limited impact on the economy in the medium to long term. In the foreign exchange market, no effective measures were announced. Finance Minister Cárdenas only said that the government will give incentives for pension fund managers to invest more abroad, by valuing their performance taking into account diversification and risk management instead of just returns.The impact will depend on the willingness of fund managers to really invest their assets abroad”.
Fiscal and credit incentives for the agricultural, industrial, housing and construction sectors may have a short-term impact on growth, especially in construction through housing and public works. But, in general terms, none of the measures aims to tackle the country’s long-term structural issues.
FX Measures
The government believes that the main issue hindering agricultural and manufacturing growth is the appreciated foreign exchange rate. To that end, the finance ministry announced that it will provide incentives for pension fund managers to invest more abroad. The performance of pension funds will start to be valued taking into account diversification and risk management, instead of only returns.
The government expects that the changes may increase the share of overseas pension fund investments from 6% to 11%, boosting demand for dollars by USD 4 billion. In countries such as Chile and Peru, pension fund managers invest more than 30% of their assets abroad, according to Finance Minister Cárdenas. The changes add to the current program of international reserve accumulations.
Additionally, a royalties fund controlled by the government called FONPET will buy 1 billion dollars of assets overseas. The measures combined would increase demand for dollars by USD 5 billion, according to the government. Of course, the bulk of the amount depends on the willingness of pension fund managers to really diversify, investing more overseas. We expect no major impact on the FX rate.
Fiscal Measures
The most significant measure announced is a reduction in mortgage rates charged by banks. According to the government, the interest rate on housing loans for the middle class will fall from 12.5% to 7.0%, with 2.5% of the decrease being subsidized by the government and the rest by the banking sector.
The government has been urging banks to lower rates in the past months, arguing that the banking sector has not passed on the policy rate cuts to their lending rates, thus not helping the economic recovery. Less than one year ago, authorities were worried about too-fast consumer credit growth and increasing leverage among consumers, and so they acted with macroprudential measures to stem credit expansion, continues Barbosa.
Also, the government anticipated in two months the reduction of non-wage labor costs for companies approved by the end of 2012 in order to “stimulate a rapid creation of formal employment.” The measure reduces labor costs by 5%. In addition, the government announced that the mining sector will pay a higher withholding tax than the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, which “helps the cash flow” of the latter sectors.
Tax incentives for the industrial and agricultural sectors were announced. Taxes on imported capital goods and raw materials will remain at 0% until August 2015. Taxes on electricity for the industrial sector were reduced. Specific fiscal expenditures to improve the development of the agricultural sector will also take place.
The finance ministry will also speed up the construction of roads and invest in the quality of transportation. The government said that it is working on laws that improve the efficiency of infrastructure projects.
The fiscal measures will cost the government USD 2.8 billion. Cárdenas argued that the stimulus doesn’t jeopardize the anti-cyclical fiscal framework because the fiscal cost will be spread out over several years.
Wikimedia CommonsFoto: Jim G from Silicon Valley, CA. Oracle Paradise Wine Fund, un nuevo fondo de vinos que se diversifica en cognacs y whiskies
Oracle Capital Group, a global independent multi-family office and wealth consultancy, has launched the Oracle Paradis Wine Fund as a new alternative asset investment opportunity. In an additional benefit for investors, the Oracle Paradis Wine Fund has added a new share class to its classic wines – rare cognacs and whiskies. This allows for much wider diversification than other wine funds.
The fund invests in world-class Bordeaux and Burgundy wines and rare collector’s wines such as early vintage port, 18th and 19th century Madeira and Imperial-era Tokaji. However, it is the inclusion of cognacs, primarily from the 18th and 19th centuries, and pre-1940 whiskies, that distinguishes the Oracle Paradis Wine Fund from its competitors.
In one notable recent purchase, the fund recently acquired bottles of Cognac Clos de Griffier 1789 from the cellars of the famous La Tour d’Argent restaurant in Paris.
According to David Nathan-Maister, Director of the fund and a former wine producer and expert on spirits, the opportunity the Oracle Paradis Wine Fund offers for investment in rare spirits, as well as fine wines, gives protection from flat markets and capital losses.
“Rare, old spirits are currently undervalued in comparison with fine wines, having largely missed out on the wine investment boom of the last 15 years. They are set for significant increases in market value over the next five to ten years.
“Our goal is to generate above-inflation returns through highly-informed purchases, access to first-buyer pricing from the very top chateaux and active trading of the rare spirits portion of the fund in particular. By actively trading, we aim to generate trading profits even in an overall environment where the wine market may be flat or even trending downwards.”
The wines, which also include other classic French wine regions such as Rhone and Champagne as well as some world-class wines from Italy and Spain, are stored in London City Bond’s Vinoteque and sold through public auctions and to wealthy individuals.
The Oracle Paradis Wine Fund is traded via Liv-ex, against which the fund’s quarterly reports and valuations are benchmarked. Minimum investment in the fund is $100,000 and it is managed by an investment team made up of industry experts and financial specialists.
About the Oracle Paradis Wine Fund Investment Team
David Nathan-Maister is a vineyard and distillery owner, and has particular experience in trading fine wines in the BRICS market. He is a recognised expert in the field of spirits and highly-regarded internationally as an author and historian on the subject. Pierre Beuchet is the founder of the wine distribution business DIVA Group, specialising in fine wines world-wide. He has strong personal relationships with many leading Chateaux owners.Dave Hughes is an international wine and spirits judge and writer, with 50 years’ experience in the trade. He has written or co-authored dozens of books on wines and spirits.
Wikimedia CommonsNew Image of ING US, now as Voya Financial . ING U.S Announces Expected Price Range for Proposed Initial Public Offering
ING U.S announced tuesday that it has filed an amended Registration Statement on Form S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in connection with its proposed initial public offering (IPO).
The proposed IPO will consist of both a primary component offered by ING U.S. and a secondary component offered by Netherlands-based ING Group at a currently estimated price range of $21.00 to $24.00 per share for a maximum of 64,166,667 shares of common stock offered, excluding an overallotment option ING Group has granted the underwriters. Based on this price range, the total offering is expected to be approximately $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion in size, including $600 million in primary proceeds for ING U.S., and will reduce ING Group’s ownership in ING U.S. to 75 percent immediately following the IPO.
ING U.S.’s amended Registration Statement also includes preliminary qualitative statements on its first quarter financial results.
ING U.S. has been approved to list its common stock on the New York Stock Exchange, subject to official notice of issuance, under the symbol “VOYA,” which reflects the new brand name of Voya Financial that ING U.S. recently announced it will transition to beginning in 2014.
Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, Goldman, Sachs & Co., and Citigroup Global Markets Inc. are acting as joint global coordinators for the offering. Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Securities, and J.P. Morgan are acting as joint book-running managers for the offering.
