Political Uncertainty, Inflation, and Central Banks Will Shape the Exchange Rate Between the Euro and the Dollar

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The political uncertainty following recent European elections and ahead of the U.S. elections in November this year is a key factor in evaluating the future of the euro-dollar exchange rate. Additionally, this situation is compounded by the evolution of inflation in both economies, which is decreasing at a slower pace than expected, and the decisions that the ECB and the Fed will make regarding the pace of interest rate cuts.

To provide an approximate forecast of how the euro-dollar relationship will evolve, we have gathered analysis from various experts. For example, Claudio Wewel, currency strategist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, considers it unlikely that the euro will rebound, as manufacturing momentum is slowing, although the currency should rise once the Fed starts cutting rates.

“Since the beginning of the year, the euro has had a mediocre performance. So far this year, it has fallen by around 3% against the U.S. dollar, while it has recorded a 1% rise in trade-weighted terms. Notably, the euro’s fluctuation band has been narrowing in recent years, and since January, the euro-dollar ratio has remained between 1.06 and 1.10,” Wewel points out.

According to his view, the duration of the current episode of “prolonged rise” will depend on the data. In this regard, he notes that the latest U.S. macroeconomic data have been weaker than expected, suggesting a moderation of the U.S.’s superior cyclical performance. However, he sees it as unlikely that the cyclical euro will benefit from the weakening economic activity in the U.S., given that the main economies of the eurozone have seen disappointing manufacturing PMIs in June.

“In this relative cyclical context, the ECB should be able to cut its policy more than the Federal Reserve this year. Along with the greater rigidity of U.S. inflation, the Fed’s less deep rate cut path than the market expected also reflects the increased odds of Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, which markets have started to consider as the base case. In our opinion, Trump’s policy mix would likely be more inflationary than a continuation of Biden’s policies, implying that in 2025 the Fed would implement fewer rate cuts in this case,” adds the expert from J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM.

From Ebury, they point out that market nervousness and uncertainty will benefit safe-haven currencies. The fintech predicts a slight appreciation of the euro-dollar pair in the coming months, which will largely result from “some convergence in economic outcomes across the Atlantic in 2024, as the U.S. economy slows after an impressive year, while the eurozone accelerates from a very low base.” Ebury analysts believe this circumstance “will push the pair back towards the 1.10 level by the end of the year, with further appreciation towards the 1.14 level in 2025.”

However, they warn that the outcome of the November presidential elections in the U.S. could pose a risk to this view. “A Donald Trump electoral victory, which markets currently assign about a 50% probability, could be bearish for EUR/USD if the former president doubles down on the protectionist policies that characterized his previous tenure in the White House,” they explain.

Parity: An Omen of Bad Luck?

Finally, according to Bank of America, parity between the two currencies is “rare” and “has not lasted long,” and they believe that for it to happen again, “everything would have to go wrong and stay that way.” According to their analysts, the probability of the euro/dollar reaching parity or less using quarterly data is zero.

“The verdict is still out on whether the euro/dollar will stay at its post-2014 lows or recover to its previous highs. Much depends on the balance between unsustainable debt and U.S. exceptionalism, and to what extent Europe unites to tackle its severe challenges stemming from geopolitics and energy dependency. A potential trade war after the U.S. elections could further weaken the euro. However, for us, parity remains only an outcome in extreme risk scenarios, and even then, we wouldn’t expect it to last long,” explains the entity in one of its latest reports.

Drawing on historical perspective, BofA indicates that the euro/dollar fell below parity only in exceptional circumstances that did not last long. Specifically, it did so only during the periods of 2000-2002 and from August to October 2022. “The first period, which was the longest, occurred during the dot-com bubble in the United States and its burst. The second period was during a perfect storm of negative shocks for Europe, with the war in Ukraine triggering a severe deterioration in its terms of trade through an energy shock, and with divergent monetary policies as the Fed was raising rates while the ECB denied inflation, delaying its policy tightening. However, the euro/dollar was above parity in November 2022, as these shocks began to diminish and the ECB started catching up with the Fed,” they point out.

Their analysis shows that the euro/dollar weakened but stayed above parity during other severe shocks. For example, it was well above parity during the global financial crisis and the eurozone crisis. It weakened substantially but also remained above parity during the ECB’s negative policy rate period after 2014. “Similarly, it stayed well above parity and without a clear trend during Trump’s first term in the United States: the euro/dollar initially strengthened and then weakened. It also remained well above parity during the pandemic,” concludes BofA in its report.

Asian Markets: Is It Time to Seek Yield as Well as Growth?

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In the current yield-seeking environment, the American asset manager Matthews Asia suggests that the Asian continent should be considered a source of dividend yield as well as a market for exposure to Asian growth. This is the value proposition of the strategy followed by the Asia Dividend fund, which is registered in Luxembourg and follows the UCITS format.

In 2011, the global amount of dividends distributed by listed companies in Asia reached $254 billion. This figure exceeds the pool of dividends distributed by S&P 500 companies in the same year by more than $10 billion. The dividend yield of the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index also surpasses that of the S&P 500 (2.8% versus 2.3% for the S&P 500). Additionally, the growth in total dividends distributed in Asia has an annualized rate of 16% for the period 2002-2011, more than double the 7% rate for the S&P 500.

The strategy operates within a universe of companies with yields ranging from 1.5% to 5% and dividend growth between 5% and 15%.

Kenneth Lowe, CFA, Portfolio Manager at Matthews Asia, explains to Funds Society that in addition to having more dividends that grow faster, “in every sector we find established companies with good but stable dividend yields, such as a mature telecom in Hong Kong or Singapore, and companies with intense dividend growth, although their current dividend yield is lower, like new operators in Indonesia.” According to Lowe, this diversity helps avoid concentration by both country and sector.

The Matthews Asia Dividend Fund strategy combines dividend yield and growth of the dividend pool, managing a universe of companies with yields ranging from 1.5% to 5% and dividend growth between 5% and 15%. “Since we incorporate dividend growth as a key factor in selecting stocks for the fund, we do not neglect the growth aspect of investing in Asian equities,” says Kenneth Lowe.

According to this expert, companies that distribute good dividends tend to have more aligned interests between shareholders and management, and also tend to better meet corporate governance requirements because “it is more difficult to hide accounting or business problems if you have to distribute a good dividend year after year,” Lowe points out. Finally, the manager comments that it is as important to identify companies with the highest growth in Asia as those whose growth is both stable and sustainable.

Currently, the strategy maintains its position in defensive and cyclical consumer companies, as well as in the telecommunications sector to benefit from the growth of domestic consumption in Asia, focusing mainly on companies that provide stability in dividend distribution. Recently, some more cyclical positions have been added due to their attractive valuation in both absolute terms and relative to companies with more predictable earnings growth.

As future risks, the manager highlights macroeconomic factors, both in Europe and the U.S. due to their fiscal problems and the possibility of a permanent slowdown in China’s growth. Despite this, Matthews Asia notes that Asian companies maintain the positive differential in dividend yield compared to American companies and remain well positioned to grow their dividends.

Matthews Asia has just over $5 billion under management in the Asian dividend yield strategy, which was launched in 2005 in the U.S. and had its UCITS format counterpart, the Luxembourg-based Asia Dividend fund, launched in April 2010. The UCITS strategy has $376 million in assets under management (as of February 28, 2013).

BBVA México Launches Fund Focused on Nearshoring

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Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Mexico linked to nearshoring grew at an annual rate of 47%, rising from $10.5 billion between January and September 2022 to a total of $15 billion in the same period of 2023.

This figure is one of the reasons BBVA México announced the launch of the BBVANSH investment fund, focused on the economic phenomenon of nearshoring, which is transforming the global dynamics of production and trade.

This investment fund is a Mexican equity product that operates with an initial capital of 120 million pesos ($6.48 million), selecting stocks of companies and Real Estate Investment Trusts (FIBRAs) focused on the logistics, supply, infrastructure, and services sectors.

The sectoral distribution of the investment fund primarily includes airport services, construction, rail transportation, passenger transportation, equipment and auto parts, as well as the hotel and education sectors, among others.

BBVA México led the country’s investment fund market during the first half of the year with a 24.53% share; the new BBVANSH fund increases the institution’s offering of investment strategies to 56 available products.

“BBVANSH not only reflects our commitment to innovation and adaptation to global trends but also our confidence in Mexico’s economic potential. We firmly believe that the fund, aside from providing attractive returns to our investors, will also contribute to the sustainable economic development of our country,” said Luis Ángel Rodríguez Amestoy, director of BBVA Asset Management México.

“We recognize the opportunity that this strategy represents not only for our country but also for companies and investments in the financial markets,” added Jorge Alegría Formoso, CEO of the Mexican Stock Exchange.

According to BBVA México, BBVANSH will consist of between 15 and 35 issuers listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange, with approximately 70% being companies and 30% FIBRAs, prioritizing high and mid-cap issuers.

The expectations of the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) indicate that nearshoring will continue to be one of the major investment magnets for the Mexican economy in the coming years.

IMCO recently highlighted an analysis of the 57 sectors most related to nearshoring and the trend of FDI, including automobile and truck manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and the beverage industry—data that BBVA also considered when launching its new product in the institution’s fund family.

Retail Investors Become the Main Clientele for Funds in Brazil

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The number of individual investors in Credit Rights Investment Funds (FIDC) has skyrocketed in the past year, making this class of investors the primary category in the investment sector, according to a report published by Anbima (Brazilian Association of Financial and Capital Market Entities).

According to available data, in May (the most recent month available), the number of individual investors reached 37,830, a figure 70% higher compared to the previous year. In second place are investment funds, with 28,968 managers.

According to Sergio Cutolo, Director of Anbima, CVM Resolution 175 was largely responsible for the change. “Our expectation is that the adaptation of the stock of FIDCs to the new standards, which will take place in November of this year, will pave the way for even greater growth than what has been recorded so far,” he says.

Liquidity and Transparency

The liquidity of FIDC assets, especially open-end funds, is a crucial issue for this asset class. The obligation to provide detailed liquidity information to the regulator (CVM) revealed that many managers still face challenges. In May 2024, 88 funds did not submit the required information, and of the 404 that did, 76 were discarded due to filling errors.

However, FIDC liquidity has increased, and longer terms are being offered to investors. The data shows that 71.56% of the assets of these funds have liquidity of more than 360 days, an improvement compared to the beginning of the year, but still lower than the levels in 2021 and 2022.

The presence of open-end financial funds investing in closed-end FIDCs represents a liquidity risk, especially due to the difficulties in handling shareholder redemptions. In May 2024, there were 1,656 open-end FIFs with shares in closed-end FIDCs, a significant increase from the 1,189 in January 2023. Despite this, most FIFs maintain relatively low exposure to FIDCs, which helps mitigate risks.

Ambiguity Takes Hold of U.S. Consumers in July

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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased in July to 100.3 (1985=100), up from a downwardly revised 97.8 in June.

“Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break out of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.

The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, decreased to 133.6 from 135.3 last month. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, improved in July to 78.2. This is an increase from 72.8 in June but still below 80, the threshold that generally signals an impending recession. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was July 22, 2024, The Conference Board explains.

“Although consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market, they still seem concerned about high prices and interest rates, and uncertainty about the future—things that may not improve until next year,” Peterson added.

Compared to last month, consumers were somewhat less pessimistic about the future, and expectations regarding future income improved slightly. However, consumers remained generally negative about business and employment conditions, the statement explains.

Additionally, consumers were a bit less positive about the current labor market and business conditions. Potentially, smaller monthly job additions are weighing on consumers’ assessment of current job availability: although still quite strong, consumers’ assessment of the current labor situation fell to its lowest level since March 2021.

In July, confidence improved among consumers under 35 and those 55 and older; only the 35 to 54 age group saw a decrease. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence remained highest among consumers under 35.

Regarding the prediction of a recession, Peterson added that it remains well below the peak of 2023. Consumers’ assessments of their family’s financial situation, both currently and in the next six months, were less positive. In fact, evaluations of family finances have continuously worsened since the beginning of 2024.

The Monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on an online sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna, a technology company that provides real-time consumer insights and market research through its innovative technology, expertise, and panel of over 36 million consumers. The deadline for preliminary results was July 22.

To read the full report, you can visit the following link.

UBS Private WM Adds Dan Chorney to Its New York Office

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Dan Chorney has joined the New York office of UBS Private Wealth Management as a portfolio manager.

“I am proud to announce that Dan Chorney has joined our UBS 1285 Avenue of the Americas Private Wealth Management office in New York City,” posted Thomas Conigatti, market director of the firm, on LinkedIn.

Chorney arrives from Bernstein Private Wealth Management, where he worked for nearly 21 years, according to his LinkedIn profile. Since joining the firm in 2003, he has served as a business analyst, national director of private client services, and wealth advisor.

Alongside the experienced professional arrives Stefanie Schechter, coming from Neuberger Berman.

Chorney, together with his colleague specializing in wealth strategy, Stefanie Schechter, “are positioned to guide multigenerational families and institutions to successfully simplify their complex financial lives, maximize the value of their businesses, and create lasting family legacies,” says the UBS statement.

The advisors are already effective in their positions.

Awaiting The Harris Effect, Trump Remains The Favorite

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The Predictable Exit of Joe Biden Happened Last Weekend. According to data from Polymarket, Kamala Harris has a 92% chance of being the Democratic nominee for the November presidential election. The support from most Democrats, as well as from the 50 state party leaders, guarantees — barring any last-minute major surprise — her official nomination at the party congress at the end of August.

Although initially (and before news of Biden’s withdrawal), Robert F. Kennedy Jr. seemed better positioned, according to betting houses, Harris’s replacement seems to bring some hope to the Democratic ranks. After facing serious difficulties in attracting campaign contributions in recent weeks, they have reportedly raised over $150 million in donations in less than 24 hours since the new candidacy announcement, according to CNBC.

With barely three months before the elections, and seeing how the gap has widened substantially between Kamala and other Democratic candidates in the latest polls, it seems that the blue party is rallying around the least bad option they have. Kamala Harris’s contributions to the White House battle have a marginally positive balance.

On the negative side, Harris’s electoral record is not brilliant. She won the California Attorney General position in 2010 by only 0.8% more votes than her opponent, Republican Steve Cooley. As previously explained, she was not the preferred replacement for Biden. She also doesn’t seem likely to significantly diminish Trump’s apparent advantage in the electoral vote (vs. popular vote). Additionally, as Vice President of the current administration, she will bear the brunt of issues like inflation or lack of control in immigration that are dragging down poll numbers.

Perhaps the most unfavorable aspect, which Donald Trump will surely exploit to his advantage, is the perception among conservative Americans regarding Harris’s political positioning, which is to the left of Biden and other more conservative Democratic presidents. Considering the U.S. demographics (50.4% women and approximately 14% African Americans, with only about 23% of registered Democrats identifying as “liberals”), the median voter theorem consolidates her as a disadvantaged candidate.

On the positive side, Harris’s disapproval rating before the announcement was better than Joe Biden’s (49.5% vs. 57%). In her role as Vice President, anyone who would have voted for Biden this November would reasonably consider a scenario where Kamala would have to replace him in the Oval Office before 2028 and would be the natural alternative for Democrats in the presidential elections that year.

Additionally, it forces Republicans to rethink their strategy, facilitating their opponents’. Kamala is now in a position to attack Trump using his advanced age as a primary argument (Harris is 59 years old, compared to Trump’s 78). Counteracting the negative interpretation of her chances according to the median voter theorem, a Pew “think tank” chart suggests a “center” or moderate voter group (39%) that surpasses both blue liberals and red conservatives. In other words, if Kamala can convincingly take a step to the right — assuming, with the addition of JD Vance, that Trump won’t moderate his rhetoric — she could improve her poll numbers compared to Biden’s records.

As explained in this analysis published in 2022, Americans who actively use X to interact with politicians, media, or journalists in public forums demonstrate that Harris could leverage this tool to present a more moderate profile: as distribution graphs show, blues have much more exposure to the social network than conservative Republicans.

Applying the 13 criteria of historian Allan Lichtman, which have accurately predicted the popular vote direction in all presidential elections from 1984 to 2020 and offer an interesting framework to study contenders’ merits despite being subjective at times and dependent on almost real-time information at others, my result would favor Trump (6 or more false criteria coincide with a change of White House occupant).

In the coming weeks, we’ll start receiving poll results that will show whether the Democrats’ surprise move allows Kamala Harris to close the gap with Donald Trump. The first, from Quinnipiac University, conducted a day after the announcement, seems to point in this direction: 49% of participants supported Trump, compared to 47% for Harris, improving the 48% – 45% shown in the previous poll with Biden. Another Ipsos poll on Wednesday placed her two points ahead of her opponent. The average of the three most recent polls leaves the difference at just one point.

For now, although Trump remains the favorite, his approval rating is low at 42.3%, but it surpasses Kamala Harris’s 37.8%. The balance of the few polls conducted since July 19 gives him a three-point advantage. The bets, which have been more accurate in identifying winners in other electoral processes, are 61%-36% in favor of the Republican, although he has lost three points in the last three days.

The election remains close, and it’s important to follow the polls in the “swing states” identified a couple of weeks ago, as they could be key: a shift towards normalization in Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin (historically Democratic strongholds now leaning the other way).

Only a month has passed since the first presidential debate, and things have moved very quickly since then. Although it’s very likely that Powell will clarify his intention to start lowering rates in September at the July Fed meeting, the other support for portfolio rotation discussed last week has become much more unstable.

The rebalancing towards more cyclical, value, and small-cap companies could continue to benefit from macro announcements pointing to a consolidation in the disinflation trend, allowing the Fed on the 31st to lay the foundations for the start of a cycle of easing monetary policy.

However, more evident signs of a cooling job market or loss of momentum in the first quarter’s industrial activity rebound would deny the hypothesis of a cycle elongation. Additionally, investors, after the initial boost, may reassess the macro implications of a second Trump term, which might not be as favorable for the stock market.

Insigneo Adds Jeannie P. Adams From Morgan Stanley

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Insigneo announced on Wednesday the hiring of Jeannie P. Adams from Morgan Stanley.

“This significant addition is the result of a joint effort by Insigneo’s Market Heads in New York and Miami,” says the statement accessed by Funds Society.

Before joining Insigneo, Adams dedicated her career to advising high-net-worth Latin American families.

She began her career at Lehman Brothers, where she traded commodities and futures, and expanded her expertise at Prudential Securities and UBS Wealth Management, guiding families through political and investment challenges. Over the past decade, she has been an International Financial Advisor at Morgan Stanley, specializing in risk management, wealth planning, tax treaties, and multigenerational solutions.

“She has focused on providing clients with a sense of control and stability over their complex financial situations,” adds the firm’s statement.

Born in New York and raised in Santiago, Chile, she was influenced by her father’s legacy in the financial industry.

“I am delighted to join the talented team at Insigneo, where our top priority is to offer exceptional advice and service to our clients,” said Adams when asked about her new role at Insigneo.

Adams’ addition to the Insigneo team represents a great asset to the firm, as her extensive experience and commitment to excellence will drive unparalleled growth and innovation in Insigneo’s wealth management services, said the firm’s executives.

“We are very fortunate at Insigneo to have someone of Jeannie’s caliber in our network of financial advisors. We look forward to working with her in the years to come,” added José Salazar, Head of the Miami Market.

Finally, Alfredo Maldonado, Head of the New York Market, expressed his happiness at reuniting with Adams after knowing her for 17 years.

“I am thrilled to welcome Jeannie Adams to the Insigneo team! I have had the pleasure of knowing Jeannie for over 17 years, and her professionalism and dedication to building strong client relationships are truly impressive. I have no doubt that she will be a valuable asset to our firm,” concluded Maldonado.

Why Will Equities Be One of the Major Stars of the Second Half of the Year?

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The presentation of the semi-annual outlook by international asset managers has highlighted three common ideas: the impact of monetary policy decisions by major central banks, the increase in geopolitical risks, and the importance of being invested in both traditional and alternative assets. In this context, the main risk for investors is staying out of the market, given the numerous sources of uncertainty and volatility on the horizon for the next six months.

According to the managers’ projections, global growth expectations are set at 3.1% in 2024 and 3% in 2025. Inflation is expected to normalize in 2024, allowing central banks to continue cutting rates, although not all at the same time. In this regard, a renewed spike in inflation after the U.S. elections is a risk that investors should watch.

Benjamin Melman, Global CIO of Edmond de Rothschild AM, notes that a year ago, the economy presented many uncertainties, as disinflation remained tepid and there were fears of a recession in the United States. However, political difficulties were relatively contained at that time. Since then, the issues have reversed. “While the economic environment now seems quite promising, it is overshadowed by political problems. The only constant has been the continuous deterioration of the geopolitical environment. This means that there could be some volatility triggered by political turmoil in France or the potential return of Trump to the White House. The good news is that markets can sometimes overreact to political crises, which can create some attractive opportunities,” Melman states.

Taking this into account, the CIO of Edmond de Rothschild AM suggests that “considering the returns recorded so far this year and the strength of the global economy, it makes sense to remain well exposed to equities.”

Opportunities in Equities

“The economic context supports profits and risk assets, but most of the upside potential is already priced in by the markets, and it will be challenging to find clear catalysts for new gains. To navigate this uncertain transition to the next phase of the cycle, we favor high-quality equities, along with a positive bias in duration and commodities to protect against inflationary risks,” adds Vincent Mortier, Group CIO of Amundi.

When discussing specific opportunities, Melman notes that within equity markets, “while the main geographical decisions (U.S. versus Europe) will largely be determined by the aforementioned political issues, the investment teams prefer Big Data and Healthcare, as well as European small caps, which are trading at very attractive valuations considering the more favorable economic environment and the monetary easing that has already begun.”

Mortier expands on his idea of high-quality equities: “Avoid concentration risks and focus on quality and valuation.” He adds that opportunities abound in U.S. quality and value stocks and global equities. “Also consider European small caps that could capitalize on the economic cycle recovery, with attractive valuations. In terms of sectors, our position is balanced between defensives and cyclicals at the lower end of the range. We are more positive on financials, communication services, industrials, and healthcare,” states Mortier.

He also believes that emerging market equities offer interesting opportunities and relatively attractive valuations compared to the U.S. “We favor Latin America and Asia, highlighting India for its robust growth and transformation trajectory,” he adds.

Ronald Temple, Chief Market Strategist at Lazard, expects to see a broadening of the equity market rally driven by better earnings growth outside the technology sector. “This broadening does not mean that tech and AI stocks will stop performing. However, it is likely that the gap between tech leaders and the rest of the market will narrow, or even reverse, as investors realize that the rest of the market has largely stagnated for more than two years and now offers more attractive return potential,” he argues.

Temple also notes that non-U.S. markets are trading at much less demanding valuation multiples and are expected to benefit from accelerated growth while the U.S. market slows down. “Additionally, non-U.S. companies are often more exposed to variable-rate debt, which should benefit them as the ECB and other central banks ease monetary policy before the Fed, and they could also experience a more significant recovery in revenues and profits from current levels,” he concludes.

Ashish Shah, Chief Investment Officer, Public Investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, estimates that in equity markets, stronger business models have demonstrated margin resilience, with recent earnings seasons in the United States exceeding expectations. Performance has expanded beyond the so-called Magnificent Seven.

“The second half of 2024 may present opportunities for investors to broaden their horizons beyond the largest names, with U.S. small-cap companies poised to rebound, offering attractive absolute and relative valuations. Small-cap companies can provide access to greater growth potential from future mid- and large-cap leaders. Certainty around rate cuts should provide additional tailwinds,” Shah points out.

Regarding Europe, he adds that “the improved growth and inflation mix in Europe, combined with better corporate earnings dynamics and modest valuations, bodes well for continental European equities.” In the Japanese equity market, he sees great opportunities as structural changes are driving good performance after decades of deflation.

Franklin Templeton Expands Its Range of ETFs with a New Japanese Equity Fund

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Franklin Templeton expands its range of passive funds with the launch of the Franklin FTSE Japan UCITS ETF, the first ETF to track the Japan index. According to the manager, this brings the number of indexed funds offered to investors to 22.

The Franklin FTSE Japan UCITS ETF invests in large and mid-cap stocks in Japan. It is passively managed and tracks the performance of the FTSE Japan Index – NR (Net Return), a market-capitalization-weighted index representing the performance of large and mid-sized companies in Japan, aiming to capture 90% of the investable Japanese equity market universe.

“We are pleased to offer this new single-country index-tracking UCITS ETF that invests in Japanese equities to European investors. Investors can now gain diversified exposure to over 500 Japanese companies across a wide range of industries. The Japanese stock market is the second-largest stock market in the Asia-Pacific region and the largest developed market in the region. After decades of deflationary trends, Japan’s central bank recently stated that it sees a virtuous cycle between wages and prices intensifying, which should help boost consumption and investments. The country’s strong position in the global technology supply chain, including semiconductors, along with a renewed focus on corporate governance and shareholder value, should also favor the domestic stock market,” highlighted Caroline Baron, Head of ETF Distribution for EMEA at Franklin Templeton.

The new ETF will provide European investors with cost-effective and UCITS-compliant exposure to Japanese stocks, with one of the lowest total expense ratios (TER) in Europe for its category, at 0.09%. It will be managed by Dina Ting, Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, and Lorenzo Crosato, ETF Portfolio Manager at Franklin Templeton, who have more than three decades of combined experience in the asset management industry and extensive track records in managing ETF strategies.

According to Matthew Harrison, Head of Americas (excluding the US), Europe, and the UK at Franklin Templeton, following the launch of the Franklin FTSE Developed World UCITS ETF a few weeks ago, the manager is expanding its offering of core index-tracking equity products with the launch of this new low-cost FTSE Japan ETF. “With a market capitalization of $6 trillion and Japanese market returns expected to recover, Japanese equities can be a core portfolio building option for an investor’s portfolio,” highlights Harrison.

The Franklin FTSE Japan UCITS ETF will be listed on Deutsche Börse Xetra (XETRA) on July 30, 2024, on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and Euronext Amsterdam on July 31, 2024, and on Borsa Italiana on September 4, 2024. The fund is registered in Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.