Wikimedia CommonsFoto: Tony Wills. El crédito con grado de inversión pierde su brillo
Yields on European investment grade credits have fallen so low that it is now time to sell securities in the asset class and look for a better deal elsewhere, says Lukas Daalder, Head of the Global Allocations team in Robeco.
Instead, the high yield, non-investment grade corporate bond market still offers a decent yield difference (spread) above sovereigns, and at relatively low default rates, he says.
Robeco Asset Allocation has subsequently decided to lower its exposure to investment grade credits by one percentage point and spend the money on high yield corporate bonds. The multi-asset fund is now underweight on investment grade, as it holds fewer bonds than the benchmark, and significantly overweight on high yield.
“European investment grade credits have shown a decent performance since 2009, leading to spread compression versus government bonds,” he says. “We see the corporate credit spread no longer as attractive, and a large part of the index spread is attributable to implicit country risk versus Germany.” Today, both investment grade credits and their sovereign bond peers yield around 1.5%-2%.
“However high yield bonds are still offering a decent credit spread, given their strong fundamentals, low default rates and the favorable regional mix, particularly in the US, despite the drop in high yield spreads in the last few years.”
Three reasons for the switch
Daalder gives three reasons why investment grade credits are not as attractive as they once were:
Both the non-financial corporates and the financial credits index yield have dropped significantly in the last years, and are now moving in tandem with European government bond yields. This can be seen in the chart below:
Source: Bloomberg
The index spread, measured against German Bund yields, is for a large part a compensation for the exposure to country risk against Germany. What people think is credit spread is actually country spread. For example, compared to the low German Bund yields, there still is a positive spread for various credits. However, if you compare it to national government bonds, which would be fairer, the spread is actually negative in many cases, as can be seen from the example of Unicredito in the chart below:
Source: Bloomberg
Although the credit fundamentals of European credits and financial bonds still look good thanks to strong balance sheets, conservative behavior and a low interest rate burden, we think that the solid fundamentals are discounted by the market by now.
US allocation helps spread buffer
Daalder says the spread buffer is higher and regional exposure is more favorable in high yield than in investment grade, thanks partly to a large allocation that his fund has made to the US.
“Sure, the yield and spread on high yield bonds have fallen as well, but the ratio between high yield and investment grade yields still looks attractive, while high yield fundamentals remain strong,” he says.
“We see the overall fundamental picture as still supportive for high yield bonds. The interest rate burden is at an all-time low, while default rates remain at very low levels.”
Photo: Martin St-Amant (S23678). Wall Street Bonuses Went Up 15% in 2013
The average bonus paid to securities industry employees in New York City grew by 15 percent to $164,530 in 2013, which is the largest average bonus since the 2008 financial crisis, and the third highest on record, according to an estimate released today by New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli. The bonus estimate includes cash bonuses for the current year, supplemented by compensation deferred from prior years.
“Wall Street navigated through some rough patches last year and had a profitable year in 2013. Securities industry employees took home significantly higher bonuses on average,” DiNapoli said. “Although profits were lower than the prior year, the industry still had a good year in 2013 despite costly legal settlements and higher interest rates. Wall Street continues to demonstrate resilience as it evolves in a changing regulatory environment.”
After record losses during the financial crisis, the securities industry has been profitable for five consecutive years, including the three best years on record. The industry reported profits for the broker/dealer operations of the New York Stock Exchange member firms, the traditional measure of profitability for the securities industry, totaled $16.7 billion in 2013, which is 30 percent less than in 2012 ($23.9 billion) but still strong by historical standards.
The securities industry has undergone a major overhaul since the 2008 financial crisis. Regulatory reforms are changing the way the industry does business by requiring larger reserves, limiting proprietary trading and imposing other changes intended to reduce unnecessary risk and to enhance transparency. In response to compensation reforms, firms now pay a smaller share of bonuses in the current year and a larger share is deferred to future years.
Even though the securities industry has been very profitable in recent years, the number of industry jobs in New York City has not returned to the pre-crisis level. DiNapoli estimates the securities industry employed 165,200 workers in New York City in December 2013, which is 12.6 percent fewer workers than before the financial crisis. After large job losses during the recession, employment in the securities industry in New York City has stabilized.
DiNapoli’s office releases an annual estimate of cash bonuses paid to securities industry employees who work in New York City during the traditional bonus season. Bonuses paid by firms to their employees located outside of New York City (whether in domestic or international locations) are not included. The Comptroller’s estimate is based on personal income tax trends, which do not distinguish between cash bonuses for the current year and compensation deferred from prior years. The estimate does not include stock options or other forms of deferred compensation for which taxes have not been withheld.
DiNapoli also reported that:
The bonus pool for securities employees who work in New York City also grew by 15 percent in 2013 to $26.7 billion during the traditional December-March bonus season. The Comptroller’s estimate includes cash bonuses for the current year, supplemented by bonuses deferred from prior years. Over the past two years, the bonus pool has grown by 44 percent, driven by compensation deferred from prior years;
Although data are not yet available for 2013, the average salary (including bonuses) paid to securities industry employees in New York City ($360,700 in 2012) was 5.2 times greater than the rest of the private sector ($69,200 in 2012);
Despite its relatively small size, the securities industry is still one of New York City’s major economic engines. The securities industry, for example, accounted for 22 percent of all private sector wages paid in New York City in 2012 even though it accounted for only 5 percent of the city’s private sector jobs;
The securities industry generates a significant amount of tax revenue for New York state and New York City. DiNapoli estimates New York City collected $3.8 billion in taxes in fiscal year 2013 from activities directly attributed to the securities industry, nearly 27 percent more than in the prior year and the second-highest level on record. Although less than the prerecession peak (11 percent), the securities industry accounted for 8.5 percent of the city’s tax revenues;
New York state, which depends more heavily on Wall Street revenues than the city does, collected $10.3 billion in taxes attributed to the securities industry during SFY 2012-13. Last year, the securities industry accounted for 16 percent of all state tax revenue, less than the prerecession peak (20 percent); and
City tax revenues could be $100 million higher than anticipated in the city’s budget because it assumed a 5 percent decline in the bonus pool. The state budget assumes a 7.8 percent increase in bonuses for the entire financial sector. While there is the potential for some additional state tax revenue, the state outlook is more consistent with DiNapoli’s forecast.
. Consensus Might be Underestimating the Tightness of the Oil Market
OECD oil inventory levels, a proxy for global oil stock levels, fell sharply in November (the latest month for which there is official data). The 54 million barrel decline was the largest monthly fall since December 2011, and preliminary indications suggest a further 43 million barrel fall for December.
Looking in more detail at the OECD oil inventory levels by geography, the Investec Commodities & Resources Indicator report, finds striking that the large draws in November were across the board in the Americas, Europe and Asia. Despite the surge in US oil production growth, US oil stock levels are lower than last year owing to high refinery utilization and strong product demand and exports. European oil inventories fell by 13 million barrels in November, compared to an average 12 million build for the month, and Asian stock levels also fell further than the seasonal norm.
Oil demand across the developed world significantly exceeded analysts’ expectations in the second half of 2013: year-on-year (yoy) comparisons were strong for both the third and fourth quarters of 2013. Third quarter demand rose from 45.9 million barrels per day (bl/d) to 46.4 million bl/d yoy, while increasing from 46.2 million bl/d to 46.6 million bl/d yoy in the fourth. We had suggested that oil demand for 2013 would come in above consensus, driven by a combination of non-OECD growth and OECD recovery, and so it proved.
Investec is expecting a repeat in 2014: the current fear around emerging market currency weakness distracts from the structural demand growth story which is still on track, and the asset manager expects oil demand growth from the non-OECD region of 1.3-1.5 million bl/d in 2014, following growth of 1.1 million bl/d in 2013.
Strong demand and low spare capacity has tightened global oil inventory levels. Investec’s Commodities & Resources team should not be surprised by Brent crude oil ranging between $100-$115/bl: the only surprising aspect from their vantage point is that many commentators, mainly economists, continue to talk about $80/bl oil.
You can access the last Investec Commodities & Resources Indicator report lin the following link.
Daniel Canel, CEO of Advanced Capital.. Advanced Capital Consolidates Latin American Presence with Peru Acquisition
Advanced Capital Securities, a Latin American investment bank capitalizing on regional and international market synergies for its clients, has consolidated its Latin American presence with the acquisition of Andes Securities SAB and Andes Securities SAFI, a longstanding Peruvian brokerage firm and investment fund manager with an impeccable track record and extensive experience in managing investments and securities services in the domestic market.
“This acquisition forms part of our goal to grow as a regional investment company focused on an emerging segment of Latin American companies and institutions, and Peru is important not only for regional integration, but due to its location within the Andean corridor,” said Daniel Canel, CEO of Advanced Capital.
With its arrival in Peru, Advanced Capital will bring to the country’s banking sector its characteristic investment banking services and specialists who bring their vast experience to help customers make sound decisions. Advanced Capital intends to consolidate its current business model, grow within the national market and introduce new financial solutions from Advanced Capital offices throughout the region.
The Peruvian Experience
Andes Securities SAB (now Andes Advanced Securities SAB) boasts a 13-year tradition of offering sound financial services in Peru, with a portfolio of more than 2,000 clients that includes individual investors as well as legal and institutional clients.
For Jacobo Said, Andes Advanced Securities founding partner and CEO, “this integration serves as an opportunity to increase the availability of Andes Securities services as well as the quality of its services through Advanced Capital, and the company’s executives, with their extensive experience and knowledge, will bring expertise to the market”.
He ensures that Peru’s capital market has impressive growth rates compared to its neighbors;”Peru plays an important role in the region, which raises business expectations and allows for a more advanced distribution network. The country should become a foreign exchange hub, and macroeconomic policies improving the country’s capital markets should guarantee Peru’s position as an important player in the region’s capital markets,” Said added.
Andes Advanced Securities SAB will offer services including equity and fixed-income services for both institutional and individual clients, manage investment funds through Andes SAFI and underwrite, structure and distribute debt and equity in the country’s capital markets.
Michael Marquez and Alfonso Baigorri. Bessemer Trust Recruits Alfonso Baigorri as Managing Director and Appoints Michael Marquez as Florida Region Head
Bessemer Trust has recruited Alfonso Baigorri to head its Miami office as Managing Director. After five years at the helm of the aforementioned office, Michael Marquez now assumes the position of Regional Director for Florida at Bessemer Trust, which has offices in Miami, Palm Beach and Naples.
As Baigorri himself, who to date has worked as managing director for JPMorgan Private Bank, explained to Funds Society, he joins one of the largest family offices in the United States with great enthusiasm, since it is a new challenge in his career; which for the past 20 years has been focused mainly on wealth consultancy to international families with family and economic ties both abroad and in the United States.
From this moment on, Baigorri assumes the management of Bessemer Trust in Miami, where he shall be in charge of professionals who work primarily with U.S. clients, although in recent times the number of foreign clients abroad, and foreign clients who have moved to Southern Florida, have contributed to design a new structure in Miami for a family office which has 107 years of history in the United States.
In addition to JPMorgan, where he worked since January 2008, Baigorri has been a partner in companies such as Buchanan Ingersoll & Rooney and Katz Barron Squitero Faust, as well as holding various positions at Banco Santander, where he worked for 12 years both in Puerto Rico and in Miami. Baigorri, a graduate of Boston University, has a Law degree from the Faculty of Law at the InterAmerican University and an LL.M. in Estate Planning from the University of Miami. Baigorri belongs to the Florida Bar Association and is a member of the Society of Trust and Estate Practitioners (STEP).
Meanwhile, Marquez is responsible for all of Bessemer’s interests in Florida, including the management of client relationships and new business development for the firm’s three offices in the state.
Before joining Bessemer, Marquez worked as managing director for JP Morgan Private Bank, coinciding with Baigorri, and also served as a member of the company’s mergers and acquisitions division. Prior to this, Martin spent several years at PricewaterhouseCoopers, where he held the position of manager for the group’s Global Capital Markets division.
Marquez holds a Columbia Business School MBA with honors, and is a Boston College Magna Cum Laude graduate.
Bessemer Trust was founded in 1907 by Henry Phipps, a partner of Andrew Carnegie in the Carnegie Steel Company, and the company still holds and manages his property; the company has 95 billion dollars in assets under management and has a ratio of three customers per employee. It currently has more than 2,200 customers and 800 employees and their average client has a portfolio of 43 million dollars.
Bessemer’s headquarters are in New York. The firm has offices in major U.S. cities as well as in London and in the Cayman Islands.
Doug Orton, Buisiness Development at MFS Investments. Investors' Thoughts and Behaviors Don't Align
According to the latest MFS Investment Sentiment Insight survey, there is disconnection investors’ between thoughts and behaviors. Investors continue to remain sceptical about investing despite their self-stated optimism and belief that equities represent a good investment choice over the long term.
When asked about their asset allocation and their opinions about various asset classes, their attitudes and behaviors didn’t match. Cash had the lowest positive ratings of any asset class and also the highest negative ratings.
But investors had almost a quarter of their portfolio in cash. On the other hand, US equity had the highest positives and lowest negatives, but investors had only 39% of their portfolios allocated to US equity. They may know that this isn’t the right choice: Less than half were very confident they had the right allocation.
Investors seem to be reacting emotionally to what’s happening in the news cycle rather than focusing on how to meet their long term goals. Lengthening their time horizons will help them match their goals and investments, according to MFS.
Garanti Asset Management, the leading and the first asset management firm in Turkey, has announced its appointment as the manager of two Turkey specific UCITS funds established on global banking group BBVA’s Luxembourg SICAV platform. Actively managed Turkish Equity and Turkish Fixed Income Funds are open-ended, offering daily liquidity. Funds’ reference currency is TL and available in US Dollar and Euro denominated share classes.
“We are proud of Garanti Asset Management’s international recognition. During the fund approval process, the team went through a very detailed due diligence, conducted by BBVA and CSSF authorities” stated Gökhan Erun, Executive VP at Garanti Bank. He added “We have full confidence on the portfolio managers who have been successfully running similar strategies for our local pension funds. To show our commitment, we are seeding both funds with a total of 15 million Euros.”
Manuel Galatas, Head of BBVA Turkey added saying “We are glad to witness yet another global collaboration with our partner, Garanti; in line with BBVA’s international expansion strategy of teaming up with the leading local players. With its robust banking system, strong budget and primary balance and sustainable growth, Turkey has become one of the key players among the emerging economies. Hence we saw the necessity to enhance BBVA’s platform by adding two new products.”
Chief Investment Officer of Garanti Asset Management, Mahmut Kaya explained their investment approach as “A top-down macro analysis of the global and local markets to generate a house-view and bottom-up fundamental analysis to identify attractive risk-reward opportunities.” He added “Our teams’ strong local expertise is leveraged significantly by our extensive network of industry contacts, key decision and policy makers. We apply defined guidelines for portfolio construction and monitor exposures by an independent risk team using a robust infrastructure.”
At a time when being truly local is essential to maneuver country specific events while fully exploiting return opportunities, BBVA and Garanti Asset Management aim to accommodate the investor demand to Turkey by these two UCITS funds.
Cantor Fitzgerald Wealth Partners, an affiliate of Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. serving the private wealth management market, has announced the expansion of its wealth management team with the appointment of two registered financial advisors, Jeff Schulte and Jim Hiles, previously of Mariner Wealth Advisors. Messrs Schulte and Hiles bring decades of experience to Cantor Fitzgerald Wealth Partners and will be instrumental in further developing Cantor’s private client group. They will report to Stan Gregor, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cantor Fitzgerald Wealth Partners.
“We believe in listening to the marketplace, and we’ve heard consistently that sophisticated investors are interested in capitalizing on the expertise that Cantor Fitzgerald has long delivered to our institutional clients. The expansion of Cantor’s Wealth Partners platform demonstrates our commitment to providing existing and new clients with best-in class services and offerings, and building our global franchise,” said Shawn P. Matthews, Chief Executive Officer of Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. “Jim and Jeff’s extensive industry experience and breadth of contacts further supports our ability to provide exceptional investment advice to current and future high net worth clients.”
“The focus at Cantor Fitzgerald Wealth Partners is on developing a private wealth management business structured as a true partnership model in which our advisors are equity owners. We provide our private clients access to the same customized services typically reserved for Cantor’s institutional clients,” added Mr. Gregor. “We will continue to expand the business by adding experienced wealth advisory teams in the coming months.”
Mr. Schulte and Mr. Hiles said in a joint statement, “We are extremely pleased to join such a highly regarded firm as Cantor, and strongly believe that this will be a significant upgrade for our business and our clients. We are confident that Cantor Fitzgerald’s client-focused culture and broad array of resources will enable us to maximize value to our clients.”
Mr. Schulte served as a Senior Financial Consultant for high net worth clients at Mariner Wealth Advisors. Earlier, he held senior positions at CBIZ Wealth Management and Prudential Securities. He was also a co-founder of eMoney Advisors and Wharton Business Group, an investment advisory firm. Mr. Schulte holds a B.A. in Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, and is a Chartered Financial Consultant.
Mr. Hiles served as Senior Wealth Advisor at Mariner Wealth Advisors, and he held a senior position at CBIZ Wealth Management. Mr. Hiles holds a B.A. in Economics from Bucknell University, and is a Chartered Financial Consultant.
Cantor Fitzgerald Wealth Partners, an affiliate of Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., serves the private wealth market. In addition to its partnership structure, Cantor Fitzgerald Wealth Partners provides its advisors with an expansive suite of products and services, as well as access to Cantor Fitzgerald’s services reserved for Cantor’s large institutional clients.
Photo: Daniel Schwen. Cartica Capital Calls on CorpBanca’s Board to Focus on Fundamental Issues of Value and Fairness in the Merger with Itaú
Cartica Capital, one of the largest minority shareholders of CorpBanca S.A., has sent a letter to the Board of Directors of CorpBanca calling on the Board to focus on the fundamental issues of the value of CorpBanca and the fairness of any transaction to all CorpBanca shareholders, not statements made by CorpGroup and CorpBanca’s management that appear intended to deflect attention from the fundamental issues of value and fairness.
In reiterating its commitment to pursuing this matter, Cartica’s letter also calls the Board’s attention to yet another valuable exclusive benefit for CorpGroup, and highlights why the protection of minority shareholders’ rights is important to the health of Chile’s markets and its economy.
We firmly believe the Board erred in approving a transaction that provides a series of valuable benefits to Álvaro Saieh and CorpGroup at the expense of the minority investors.
The full text of the letter follows:
March 10, 2014
Dear Members of the Board:
We are writing you again to ensure that statements made by CorpGroup and CorpBanca do not divert your attention from the fundamental issues of value and fairness we have raised concerning the proposed CorpBanca – Itaú transaction. Over the past week, CorpGroup and certain members of CorpBanca management have endeavored to focus public discussion on false issues of whether a merger combination without a tender offer is lawful under Chilean law, and whether a combination of CorpBanca and Itaú would result in a stronger bank. These are not the issues we dispute. In fact, we do believe that CorpBanca would be a significantly stronger bank with Itaú or any other respected financial institution in control rather than Álvaro Saieh and CorpGroup, particularly in light of the financial difficulties CorpGroup has reportedly experienced. Similarly, we do not insist that a tender offer is the only way to be fair to all shareholders. There should be no further time lost and no further CorpBanca resources wasted engaging in these false debates.
To be perfectly clear: the fundamental issues the minority shareholders want you to address are value and fairness.
We firmly believe the Board erred in approving a transaction that provides a series of valuable benefits to Álvaro Saieh and CorpGroup at the expense of the minority investors. In addition to the six exclusive and highly valuable benefits cited in our March 3rd letter that will be provided solely to CorpGroup in connection with the transaction, it has been brought to our attention by Chilean minority investors that the limited information included in the hecho esencial and Form 6-K filed by CorpBanca reveal yet another: “a right to sell will be granted to CorpGroup as a way out for its interest in the merged bank”. If this in fact refers to a valuable put option, why wasn’t this benefit extended to all CorpBanca shareholders?
It is incumbent on the Board of CorpBanca to fulfill its legal responsibilities as directors, not shrink from them. Shareholders have every reason to insist that you take immediate action to ensure that the terms of any merger combination: (1) capture the true value of CorpBanca for its shareholders and (2) treat all shareholders equally without providing special private benefits to Álvaro Saieh and CorpGroup.
Everyone with a stake in the Chilean capital markets should fully recognize the broader implications that shareholders’ rights has for a nation’s economy. The members of Cartica’s senior management team have been active in the development of Chile’s capital markets since the late 1980s, both in the private sector and as senior executives of the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation. With this perspective, Cartica believes that all Chileans, not only CorpBanca’s minority shareholders, have a stake in whether the CorpBanca – Itaú transaction is consummated on its current terms. Any transaction, such as the proposed CorpBanca – Itaú merger, that brazenly and unfairly benefits a majority shareholder at the expense of minority investors, damages Chile’s reputation as a safe environment for investment, raising the cost of capital for all issuers, which in turn has consequences for the domestic economy. Accordingly, we fully expect this transaction as currently structured will be the subject of very careful scrutiny by the securities and banking regulators, both locally and internationally.
Just as you should not be confused over what the fundamental issues are, no one should have any doubt about Cartica’s commitment to pursuing this matter. We reiterate that in the absence of prompt actions by the Board of CorpBanca to fully address and satisfy the concerns of minority shareholders, we will act to defend our interests. We will hold CorpBanca’s directors, who are fiduciaries of all shareholders, accountable for any destruction in the value of our investment and that of all minority shareholders.
Photo: I.Barrios & J.Ligero. Oyster Launches an Increased Leverage Version of its Market Neutral Fund
The Swiss banking group SYZ & CO has announced the launch of Oyster Market Neutral Plus, a new sub-fund of Oyster, its Luxembourg UCITS SICAV. The fund is an increased leverage version of the Oyster Market Neutral fund, whose neutral beta long/short strategy has proved itself since it was launched four years ago. Managed by SYZ Asset Management according to the same investment process and with the same diversification and non-correlation objectives as the original fund, Oyster Market Neutral Plus offers 2x leverage and targets a return of LIBOR +10%.
With a target return of LIBOR +10% a year over a full cycle, Oyster Market Neutral Plus aims to achieve a performance twice as high as the original strategy. To do so, it uses twice as much leverage, which means that the portfolio’s exposure may vary from 100% to 400%. Volatility target limits will be 12%, instead of 6% for the original fund. Managed according to the same process and by the same team at SYZ Asset Management (Giacomo Picchetto and Stefano Girola), the fund also retains the same portfolio diversification and non-correlation objectives as Oyster Market Neutral. Since it was launched in August 2009, this fund has obtained some very good results, and ranks in the Top 25% of its category over 3 years and since the beginning of 2014, and in the Top 10% over two years.
Apart from Luxembourg, the sub-fund is already registered in the United Kingdom, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Spain, Italy and Sweden. It should soon be registered in France and Switzerland. “With interest rates in Europe offering mediocre returns, the original fund is aimed mainly at conservative investors looking for a substitute for their bond investments. The double-leverage version will be attractive to investors wishing to invest in the equity market while limiting directional bias,” explained Xavier Guillon, CEO of Oyster Funds.
A strategy centred on anticipating revisions to corporate earnings
The strategy developed by SYZ Asset Management aims at taking advantage – in both rising and falling markets – of price inefficiencies in European equities, while maintaining equity market exposure as near as possible to zero. Alpha generation is extracted by anticipating revisions to corporate earnings forecasts since consensus estimates suffer from structural biases that can be exploited. Indeed, analysts have a tendency to “fall in love” with the companies they monitor and, what is more, are afraid of harming their relationship with company management by being too aggressive. They therefore tend to adjust their figures after publication of earnings results instead of genuinely anticipating them.
In addition, even in the case of a reversal in the economic cycle, companies tend to remain set in their tracks until their budgets are next reviewed. Finally, the reduction in the number of analysts for economic reasons has led to under-coverage of companies, in particular among small and mid caps, which increases inefficiencies. A sound network of contacts within companies together with proprietary, multi-factor filters then serve as a basis for a bottom-up investment approach and genuine fundamental analysis. The fund does not use complex structured products and restricts itself to long/short positions in European equities.
