Negative sovereign rating actions exceeded positive actions in the first half of 2014 in Latin America and the Caribbean, according to Fitch Ratings. While the Rating Outlooks for most countries in the region remain Stable, Negative bias remains for ratings as currently more countries have Negative Outlooks than Positive Outlooks.
Fitch downgraded the sovereign ratings of Bermuda, Guatemala and Venezuela by one notch each during the first half of 2014. However, Fitch also took two positive rating actions in the region, upgrading Jamaica to ‘B-‘ from ‘CCC’ and assigning a Positive Outlook to Paraguay.
The Stable Rating Outlooks for the majority of sovereigns in the region suggest that positive and negative rating pressures are balanced. Currently, only Paraguay has a Positive Outlook while Argentina (Local IDR only), Aruba, El Salvador and Venezuela have Negative Outlooks.
‘Softer commodity prices, China’s slowdown, slower domestic demand and country-specific factors are clouding the near-term prospects of the Latin American region,’ said Shelly Shetty, Head of Fitch’s Latin America Sovereigns Group. ‘Structural constraints including low investment rates and infrastructure gaps, are also biting in some countries and highlight the need for a broader reform effort to improve the medium term growth trajectory,’ she added. Slower growth will likely constrain improvements in fiscal and external solvency ratios and dampen the sovereign credit momentum in the region, particularly as the rating cycle for the region has been quite positive in recent years.
At the same time, Fitch does not anticipate broad-based negative rating actions either as several Latin American countries have adequate external liquidity and credible policies in place to confront potential higher international volatility. Market access remains relatively robust for most countries. Fiscal room to stimulate domestic economies is more constrained although countries like Chile and Peru with countercyclical buffers and low government debt burdens have room to implement such policies.
Fitch is projecting Latin America’s real GDP growth will reach 1.9% in 2014 compared to 2.6% last year with modest recovery expected in 2015. The regional growth forecast masks important differences between countries. Brazil and Mexico are likely to under-perform this year with growth in the former reaching only 1.5% and remaining below 3% in the latter. Even the previously fast growing Chilean economy is losing steam as it confronts lower copper prices and China’s deceleration. Growth will also slow although remain relatively robust in Bolivia, Panama, Paraguay and Peru, while Colombia and the Dominican Republic are the only economies expected to accelerate this year. On the other hand, Argentina and Venezuela will likely experience recession.
Among the inflation targeting countries inflation remains elevated in Brazil and Uruguay. Chile, Mexico and Peru have cut interest rates amid slowing growth. Brazil has halted its monetary tightening cycle arguing the impact of the rate increases is cumulative and operates with a lag. Colombia is the only country in a tightening mode given its robust domestic demand dynamics. Argentina and Venezuela will continue to have the highest inflation rates in the region.
A gradual fiscal deterioration is forecasted in 2014 for several countries due to slower growth, lower commodity prices and continued spending pressures amid a heavy electoral calendar. The two largest economies of Brazil and Mexico will see higher deficits this year. Aruba, Costa Rica, El Salvador and Suriname will incur among the highest deficits in the region (surpassing 4.5% of GDP in each case). Only Bolivia and Peru are forecasted to run a small surplus or near balanced budget positions. Commodity dependent and recession-stricken economies of Argentina and Venezuela will have to manage their fiscal accounts within the constraints imposed by their limited financing options. Nevertheless, the modifications to Venezuela’s FX regime and the weaker average official exchange rate will likely benefit government oil receipts.
The regional current account deficit is forecasted to reach 2.6% of GDP in 2014. Current account deficits remain elevated in several countries including Brazil, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Jamaica, Panama and Uruguay. However, in most cases, external vulnerability is mitigated by healthy external reserves cushion, the continued resilience of FDI flows and access to markets and multilaterals. On the other hand, international reserves of Argentina and Venezuela have faced pressure over the past year. While they have stabilized in recent months, Fitch will continue to monitor their trajectory as significant drainage could further undermine their external debt repayment capacity.
The electoral calendar was heavy in the first half of 2014 with Presidential elections held in Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador and Panama. The election outcomes do not materially impact sovereign credit trends in these countries. However, countries like El Salvador and Costa Rica face the challenge of implementing fiscal reforms to secure better fiscal and government debt trajectories. Bolivia, Brazil and Uruguay will hold elections in the second half of 2014. The Bolivian President Evo Morales is expected to win the re-election bid which would imply broad policy continuity. Uruguay’s market friendly policies are likely to remain in place after the elections in which former President Tabare Vasquez is the current frontrunner. The polls in Brazil suggest that the likelihood of a second round have increased. Regardless of the electoral outcome, the next administration will confront the challenge of making policy adjustments to reduce the existing macroeconomic imbalances and take measures to boost confidence and competiveness of the economy. Political polarization will remain high in Venezuela and could make it difficult for the government to make faster progress on the much needed policy adjustments to ease foreign exchange constraints and address issues of scarcity, crime and very high inflation. Periodic periods of social instability cannot be ruled in Venezuela.
Material structural reforms to boost the lagging productivity growth in the region have not made significant headway. Mexico is the only exception where the government has been making progress on long-standing issues.
Photo: Romazur. CBH Compagnie Bancaire Helvétique Acquires Latam and Iberian Private Banking Business of Banque Privée Espírito Santo
Banque Privée Espírito Santo (BPES) has announced the sale of a significant part of its private banking business to CBH Compagnie Bancaire Helvétique SA, a Swiss independent private bank. The agreement covers the bank’s clients in the Iberian and Latin American regions.
The similarities in terms of culture and approach between the two banks will ensure continuity of the high-quality service and proximity to which BPES clients are accustomed. CBH and BPES will now work closely together to complete the transfer of the clients involved under the best possible conditions.
“I firmly believe that in CBH Compagnie Bancaire Helvétique we have found an excellent solution that will enable us to continue to work in the interests of our clients and our staff in the best way posible,” stated José Manuel Espírito Santo, Chairman of the Board of Directors of BPES.
Banque Privée Espírito Santo will continue to support its clients that are not transferred, maintaining a high-quality service and then gradually reducing its activities while at the same time developing its partnership with CBH Compagnie Bancaire Helvétique.
“We are very pleased to have concluded this agreement and we believe that it represents a significant step forward in the development of our bank, enabling the expansion of our business into the Latin American and Iberian markets. We are delighted to welcome the new team, with which we share a common strategic vision that is focused on a close relationship with our clients,” said Philippe Cordonier, CEO of CBH Compagnie Bancaire Helvétique.
Mary Oliva, fundadora de International Wealth Protection. Foto: Forbes. Servicio de seguros 'concierge' para los más acaudalados de Latinoamérica
For Latin America’s ultra-high-net worth individuals and families— and for the financial institutions and advisors who serve them—the gateway to culturally tailored wealth protection can be found in Miami, Florida. That’s the home of International Wealth Protection, an insurance brokerage firm unlike any other in the U.S., according to Forbes.
Founder and longtime industry veteran Mary Oliva, who wields 20+ years of international marketplace experience, has traveled extensively throughout Latin America. She understands its wealthiest citizens’ unique needs and challenges; more importantly, she has the knowledge, tools and acumen to effectively address them.
“We work jointly with other wealth advisory professionals who want to fully service their foreign national clients but aren’t familiar with the cultural intricacies and regional realities that complicate plan- ning,” Oliva says. “We’re on the ground in Latin America, meeting with clients on a regular basis. The full scope of service we provide and the way we provide it truly set us apart.”
Managing the Many Facets of Risk
International Wealth Protection provides insurance-based wealth protection and wealth transfer strategies designed to protect clients’ assets, sustain their lifestyles and safeguard their legacies—all in a region too often beset by military insurrection, political instability and currency volatility.
“Ninety percent of Latin American businesses are family owned, yet only 1 percent reach the fourth generation due to a lack of planning,” Oliva says. “We understand our clients’ unique concerns as well as the nature and degree of risk they face, and we’re focused on having the conversations no one else is having with them—what keeps them up at night and the future they envision.”
International Wealth Protection also stays a step ahead of emerging regional trends. “We’ve now entered a global era of transparency and compliance,” Oliva says. “Our firm is pioneering the utilization of life insurance, including private placement policies, to meet Latin Americans’ growing need for tax-planning strategies.”
Protecting Your World: Concierge-Style Service
International Wealth Protection delivers straightforward insurance-based solutions to the highly complex and diversified jurisdiction that is Latin America. With complete understanding of the regulatory and tax environment of the region’s 20 different countries, Oliva is able to implement personalized solutions in a compliant and tax-efficient manner.
These solutions include but are not limited to: general risk evaluation ; multijurisdictional tax planning; charitable giving strategies ; U.S. beneficiary planning ; business continuity ; extraordinary risks ; asset protection ; multigenerational planning .
“Our goal is to help our clients mitigaterisk in a seamless fashion,” Oliva says. “We go to great lengths to provide an excep- tional client experience.”
Black Diamond Capital Management has announced the appointment of Jerome Shapiro as a Managing Director and Structured Product Portfolio Manager.
Mr. Shapiro joined the firm on June 1 at its Greenwich, Connecticut office and has responsibility for structured product investments across the Black Diamond platform.
“Jerome’s hiring expands our structured product capabilities and reflects Black Diamond’s view that structured investment opportunities are an attractive asset class for generating returns for our clients,” said Stephen Deckoff, Managing Principal of Black Diamond. “Jerome is a seasoned professional and his expertise will enable us to continue to enhance our capabilities in this important area.”
“It’s a privilege to join the Black Diamond team,” said Mr. Shapiro. “I’m confident that we have the experience and ability to significantly enhance and grow our structured products portfolio.”
Mr. Shapiro was most recently a Senior Vice President at One William Street, an alternative investment firm, managing an asset-backed portfolio across multiple commercial and consumer sectors. He previously worked at Merrill Lynch & Co. in the Principal Investment Group, co-managing a whole loan portfolio. He also held positions in trading and structuring CMBS and other mortgage products at Bear, Stearns & Co. Mr. Shapiro holds a BS in Mathematics from Tufts University.
PIMCO and Source announced the listing of two ETFs on the SIX Swiss Exchange. The PIMCO Euro Short Maturity Source UCITS ETF and the PIMCO US Dollar Short Maturity Source UCITS ETF were launched in 2011, initially on Xetra and the London Stock Exchange, and since then have gathered assets of €1.3 billion and US$1.8 billion respectively.
These short maturity funds – known as ‘MINT’ – were the first actively managed ETFs to be listed in Europe and offer investors direct access to PIMCO’s global cash management expertise.
Their aim is to preserve capital and provide the potential for superior income and total returns compared to traditional money market funds. They do this by investing in baskets of short-term investment grade debt securities. The funds are wholly transparent, with full disclosure of holdings published daily.
The fund managers look to take advantage of opportunities in the market by actively managing exposure to duration and credit. Currently, the Euro fund has an effective duration of 0.98 years, while the US Dollar fund has a shorter duration of 0.51 years. Both funds maintain duration of up to 1 year. In terms of credit exposure, the average rating within the two funds is currently A+.
The PIMCO Euro Short Maturity Source UCITS ETF and the PIMCO US Dollar Short Maturity Source UCITS ETF both have an annual management fee of 0.35%.
Photo: Dabackgammonator. S&P Dow Jones Indices Will License All of Mexico's BMV Indices
S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) has announced that it has reached an agreement in principle with the Mexican Stock Exchange (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores, BMV) to license all of the BMV indices including their flagship index, IPC (Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones) – the broadest indicator of the BMV’s overall performance. The final agreement is subject to definitive approvals.
S&P DJI will assume the marketing and commercial licensing of the BMV indices with the intent to jointly create new indices with the BMV. This agreement allows S&P DJI to eventually calculate all of the BMV indices.
The BMV currently publishes several leading stock market indices, each liquid enough to serve as the basis for potential derivative products and ETFs. “The BMV is the 5th largest exchange in the Americas (ranked by domestic market capitalization) and 2nd largest exchange in Latin America,” said Alex Matturri, CEO of S&P Dow Jones Indices. “With over 140 listed companies trading on the Exchange, it is the premier destination for international and domestic investors seeking access to the growing Mexican equity market. The BMV indices are well recognized internationally as the main benchmarks for the Mexican markets. We are excited to bring the S&P brand, and along with it, our indistinguishable characteristics of integrity, transparency and independence, to the BMV family of indices.”
Luis Tellez, Chairman of the Board and CEO of BMV said: “The leadership of S&P Dow Jones Indices and its worldwide recognition were the most important assets valued by BMV’s Board of Directors in order to have a licensing agreement in place that will broaden our coverage and other strengths well recognized by the market. S&P Dow Jones Indices’ 100+ years of indexing experience adds an important value to BMV in its indices business. The Mexican market and its participants will now have more benchmarks measuring international trends and market health.”
According to the agreement, the BMV will transition index calculation of its indices to S&P DJI over time ensuring a smooth transition that will have minimal impact to existing and new clients. S&P DJI will be responsible for the commercial licensing of the indices and the end-of-day data while the BMV will continue to commercialize real-time index data. As part of the agreement, all current BMV indices will be co-branded S&P.
Outside of branding, no changes are expected to be made in the near future to the methodology of the BMV indices that already are up to international standards. Together both companies will work in developing new indices to satisfy the evolving needs of the market.
Fidelity Investments has announced its 10 passively managed sector exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have surpassed $1 billion in managed assets since trading began eight months ago.
A significant portion of Fidelity’s asset growth occurred in the past three months with individuals and advisors investing more than $500 million in the ETFs. In addition, six of the 10 ETFs have each accumulated more than $100 million in assets under management, including the largest -Fidelity MSCI Health Care Index ETF (FHLC)- at $172 million.
“As investment advisors, we’re looking to provide our clients with solutions that help diversify portfolios and are cost-effective,” said David Haviland, portfolio manager at Beaumont Capital Management. “Sector investing is an effective and targeted approach that we frequently use to gain exposure to specific segments of the economy – whether it is for growth or to manage portfolio risk. With Fidelity’s deep sector heritage and the low-cost sector ETFs, it was clear these solutions would deliver value to our clients.”
“Surpassing the $1 billion milestone in such a short period of time clearly demonstrates the growing demand for sector investments,” said Anthony Rochte, president of SelectCo, Fidelity’s dedicated sector investing division. “We expect interest in sector investing, whether through our ETFs or our 44 actively managed sector mutual funds, to continue as individual investors and advisors seek to diversify their portfolios and use sectors as building blocks to help generate potential alpha and manage portfolio risk.”
As part of its broader strategic relationship, Fidelity, which has $2 trillion in managed assets, uses BlackRock as the sub-advisor for its 10 passive sector ETFs, leveraging the firm’s passive investment management expertise and scale.
Expanded Sector Investing Education and Tools
Fidelity also expanded its extensive suite of in-depth sector research and market commentary for investors and advisors on dedicated micro sites on fidelity.com and advisor.fidelity.com, with the launch of Fidelity’s Quarterly Sector Update. The new report leverages proprietary research from across Fidelity and provides investors a snapshot of the relative performance potential of the 10 market sectors based on five key factors: relative strength, momentum, relative valuations, fundamentals and business cycle. The Q2 2014 report identifies the technology, industrials and health care sectors as best positioned for investment opportunities.
“Fidelity’s strategy will continue to be about offering our millions of brokerage customers and thousands of advisor clients a comprehensive suite of investment products and solutions to help them meet their diverse investment needs,” said Rochte. “Our expansive sector capabilities span from the industry-leading sector line up of ETFs and actively managed mutual funds to Fidelity’s sector research and investing tools and are all at the core of helping advisors and individual investors leverage sectors in their portfolios.”
U.K. investment boutique J O Hambro Capital Management (JOHCM) has announced that it has hired portfolio managers Thorsten Becker, Arun Daniel, and Vincent Rivers and trader Eric Yi to form its new small/mid cap U.S. equity team ahead of the launch of a U.S. small and mid-cap equity strategy later this quarter.
The three portfolio managers and Yi were previously employed with Pyramis Global Advisors, a Fidelity Investments company, where they contributed to the management of a U.S. small/mid cap core equity strategy.
The team will apply a core investment approach, managing a fundamental research-driven best ideas portfolio. Capacity for the strategy has been set at $5 billion. The team will be will be based in Boston, Massachusetts.
“We’re pleased to add this team to our lineup of outstanding money managers,” said Gavin Rochussen, JOHCM CEO. “The appointment of these experienced and proven U.S. equity investors enhances our presence in the United States, a market where we are making considerable inroads. Our success has been founded upon recruiting experienced fund managers with proven investment pedigree. We give those investment professionals the autonomy and incentives that allow them to do what they do best: create alpha in their given strategies.”
The team will also launch a Global small and mid-cap equity strategy in due course.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrChris Hart, portfolio manager de la estrategia Global Premium Equities de Robeco. Los “tres círculos” llevan a Robeco a identificar más oportunidades entre las mid y large caps
Stock markets that have hit record levels in recent months present a challenge for investors in avoiding the value trap, says award-winning fund manager Chris Hart.
Chris Hart, manager of Robeco Global Premium Equities strategy, warns that chasing those companies which are perceived to be higher growth than others can lead to overpaying for stocks that are already expensive. Instead, Hart prefers a more disciplined approach that is based more on finding those companies that are undervalued relative to their prospects. This avoids simply looking for momentum, where a company is able to grow but much of the potential is already priced in. “A drawback of both the bull market and the low-growth economic environment that we are in is that investors chase growth – and sometimes at a price that isn’t really worth paying. The market is currently paying high prices for momentum, top-line and earnings growth. Small cap stocks globally (under USD 2 billion) seem to be somewhat expensive. The portfolio currently has the smallest percentage of small cap names over the past six years. We’re now finding more opportunity in the mid and large cap range.”
‘A drawback of the bull market is that investors chase growth’
Such is his skill in finding the best stocks that Boston-based Hart has won the Morningstar Awards for the best fund a record nine times in Europe. His fund has consistently outperformed its benchmark, and Hart says this is due to strict adherence to what he calls the ‘three circles’ approach. This targets companies that have a low valuation (relative to peers and company history), positive momentum (the ability to grow) and good fundamentals (the ability to generate free cash flow).
“What we’re really looking for is that dislocation between valuation and fundamentals, and earnings,” says Hart. “Over the last five to six years we have been able to find pockets of opportunity at the industry level – names that were generally cheap. We’re now not really finding pockets any more, but one-off names. For example, advertising as an industry was undervalued for a while. There would be 2-3 advertisers that might be interesting, and now it might be one. So it’s even more security- selection driven because of where we are in the market, and what the market is paying for. Being as disciplined as we are with the application of our three circles philosophy and process, the portfolio will always maintain a quality bias and always own companies that have earnings momentum that is better than the market, with valuation support.” And being strict on principles is key. “We are not going to throw away our discipline and chase momentum and give up our valuation criteria,” says Hart. “The portfolio today has become more value orientated. The level of relative valuation to the universe that we look at is almost as wide as it’s ever been.”
You may access the complete article at Robeco’s Time2Read Magazine
Foto: Picharmus, Flickr, Creative Commons.. Casasús: "Lo que estamos viviendo en las bolsas tiene que ver con China y con la propia dinámica del mercado"
Calamos Investments announces the launch of the Calamos Focus Growth ETF one of the industry’s first actively managed equity ETFs.
“Our decision to offer an active equity ETF – particularly at this early juncture in the market’s development – is right in line with our history of anticipating the needs of investors and offering innovative solutions to satisfy those needs. From our convertible strategy launched in 1979 to our market neutral income strategy launched in 1990 and our long/short strategy in 2013, Calamos has always been a leader in developing innovative solutions that help our clients navigate the evolving investment landscape. To that end, we believe actively managed ETFs represent an investment option whose time has come,” said John Calamos, Sr., CEO and Global Co-CIO of Calamos Investments.
“Active equity ETFs are a logical extension of our long-held belief in active management and enable us to serve investors who prefer the ETF product structure and appreciate the benefits of transparency. CFGE offers ETF investors a way to access a similar strategy to that which is available in a mutual fund format, and reflects Calamos’ commitment to the actively managed ETF space,” said Gary Black, Global Co-CIO of Calamos Investments.
The Calamos Focus Growth ETF leverages the firm’s 25-year history investing in growth companies, and features a portfolio consisting of stocks which we believe offer the best opportunities for growth. The portfolio selection process stresses company fundamentals including a global presence, strong revenue and earnings growth, solid returns on invested capital and lower debt-to-capital levels. The fund also utilizes active management, blending investment themes with fundamental research.
