Pershing Study Shows A Gap Exists Between What Advisors Say and What Resonates with Investors

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An effective value proposition strengthens audience connections and fosters growth, yet many advisors have had little objective guidance in formulating such statements until now, according to a new study released today from Pershing, a BNY Mellon company. What Do Top Advisors Say and What Do Investors Really Think? reveals how an advisor can communicate their  value proposition to investors and differentiate themselves from other advisors in the industry.

A unique value proposition answers the critical question “Why should I choose you?”, yet according to the survey 60 percent of investors say that many advisors make similar promises, making it difficult to distinguish between them. The strongest value propositions incorporate these four key elements:

  • attributes of the advisor;
  • benefits for the investor;
  • a rational explanation of how the firm’s attributes benefit the client;
  • and language that evokes emotion.

“Developing an effective value proposition can have larger implications on an advisor’s overall business than they may realize,” says Kim Dellarocca, managing director at Pershing. “In many instances, the value proposition is the first impression potential clients experience and can be the catalyst for a future relationship. It is also an opportunity for advisors to promote business growth by using language that differentiates themselves and targets their ideal client base by articulating attributes and features that appeal to specific demographics. Of course, the real test is delivering on what you promise.”

Choosing the right language can make a big difference for investors. Pershing’s study found that investors prefer value statements that incorporate “comprehensive” over “holistic” by a ratio of seven to one. Additionally, two topics that investors care about most – conservative investment approaches and trust – are under-represented in most value propositions.

Based on a systematic look at the value propositions used by top advisors, and investor reactions to these and other value propositions, Pershing has identified key takeaways for advisors to consider when creating a value proposition of their own. They are as follows:

  • Include core promises—but add more. Investors found three themes to be the most compelling among advisors’ value propositions: tailored solutions to meet their needs, advisors working for the investors’ best interest and experienced investment managers. An advisor’s website and marketing materials should include these top promises.  Advisors who do not mention these in their value propositions risk being excluded from consideration by potential clients. Successful advisors also need to include something extra to differentiate themselves, such as why investors should choose them over other advisors or unusual client benefits like building a family legacy or understanding personal aspirations.
  • Don’t oversell simplicity. Many websites promise to simplify investing and relieve clients of the burden of managing wealth, but according to Pershing’s study, most investors accept the need to take an active role in managing their own finances.
  • Give conservative approaches more prominence. If advisors’ money management approaches place special emphasis on preservation of capital, it should be a highly visible component of their value proposition.
  • Work hard to establish trust. Trust remains a much bigger concern for investors than the financial industry realizes. Advisors must ensure their value propositions include a message on why investors should trust in them and includes themes like trust, accountability, integrity and fiduciary responsibility.
  • Tailor the message to the ideal client profile. Different market segments place higher emphasis on different attributes. Advisors should know who their ideal client base is and what is most important to them in an advisor, and make sure their value propositions exhibit those points. For instance, investors under 40 place higher importance on advisors who will provide guidance through life’s major events and relieve the burden of managing finances.
  • Watch your language. Investors dislike jargon and favor words with emotional connotations- that means how the value proposition is formulated is just as important as the message it is trying to portray. For example, when judging between near-synonyms, investors prefer words with an emotional punch, such as “unwavering” and “passionate” rather than “committed” and “dedicated”.

To learn more about the makings of a winning value proposition, please visit this link.

Emerging Markets, Selective High Yield Debt May Offer Opportunities

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Emerging markets and selected high yield debt appear to offer opportunities in the current environment of heightened geopolitical risk, according to the summer bond market observations from Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC, the Boston-based fixed income boutique for BNY Mellon.

Periods of market volatility associated with this type of risk historically have provided buying opportunities, according to the Standish Bond Market Observations July/August Part II (BMO).

“Over the past two decades, investors who bought the popular global or high yield bond indexes during spikes in volatility on average ended up with positive total return six months later,” said David Leduc, chief investment officer of Standish and author of the report.

This time around, conflicts in Ukraine and Iraq have contributed to higher volatility and risk assets began to sell off, the report said.  Standish expects both Ukraine and Iraq will settle into an unstable equilibrium. While both have the potential to unsettle financial markets, Standish said they believe that neither is likely to derail global economic expansion in the second half of 2014.

Looking at emerging markets, Standish said valuations appear to be particularly compelling in Latin America and Asia. However, Leduc added, “We worry about the vulnerability of the sector to the eventual tightening of Fed policy despite the improvement in market technical signals.” The improvement in technical signals followed the sell-off that occurred in the spring of 2013 when talk of tapering quantitative easing first arose, Standish said.

Overall, Standish expects the U.S. and China to lead accelerating global growth in the 2014 second half. The report cites stimulus measures implemented by China earlier in the year that are beginning to filter through to the broader economy. The report also noted that economic output in the U.S. rebounded in the second quarter of 2014.

Bank J. Safra Sarasin: Global Economic Recovery at Varying Speeds; Equities Remain The Best Bet

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Bank J. Safra Sarasin explains the global economic outlook and investment strategy for the rest of 2014. According to the bank, equities remain the most attractive asset class mid-term, in particular Emerging Markets have further catch-up potential. “Earnings growth is likely to replace higher valuations as the main driver for share prices in the near future: Equity markets could still overshoot. We see the biggest opportunities in Japan and emerging market countries”, says Philipp E. Baertschi, Chief Investment Officer Private Clients.

The bank thinks that the economic recovery continues, but at varying speeds; the US leads the global cycle with growth significantly higher than in Euroland.

Euroland is hampered by high debt levels, ongoing economic imbalances, adverse geopolitical headwinds like the crisis in Ukraine and the urgent need for structural reforms.

Inflation remains low globally, preventing a premature increase of policy rates and a bond market crash. The spectre of deflation is particularly strong in Euroland and needs to be addressed by demand and supply side policies. “Excessively low inflation impedes structural change and puts extra pressure on leverage to households and companies. Wages and inflation need to be significantly higher in the most competitive Euro area countries to meet the ECB’s definition of price stability and to rebalance the Euro area. Structural reforms that strengthen the growth potential are necessary, but a declining acceptance of economic policies that are needed for a sustainable currency union and the risk of adverse political developments are now greater than those originating in financial markets”, comments Karsten Junius, Chief Economist.

Interest rate hikes are forecasted in the USA/UK in 2015 while the monetary policy of the European Central Bank is expected to become even more expansionary. As a result, bond yields are likely to rise, with the curve to remain stable in US and steepen in Euroland. The US dollar is expected to strengthen against the Euro and Swiss Franc.

With regard to Switzerland, the Bank’s experts make the following observations: Economic indicators are pointing to solid growth – based on strong consumption, high employment, low interest rates and strong credit growth; SNB monetary policy is tied to the ECB’s policy and the SNB is expected to defend success- fully the CHF 1.20 floor against the Euro – if necessary also by lower interest rates; the main risk remains the overheating of the housing sector; GDP forecast for 2014 is 1.6%, and for 2015 is 1.8%.

Camden Capital Names Kara S. Boccella Managing Director

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Camden Capital Names Kara S. Boccella Managing Director
. Camden Capital nombra a Kara S. Boccella managing director de su oficina de California

Camden Capital announces the appointment of Ms. Kara S. Boccella as managing director and Ms. Devon M. Galindo as client relations associate. Ms. Boccella has twenty-five years of experience advising legal professionals, business owners, entrepreneurs and high net worth families on wealth management, legacy planning and family office matters.  

Ms. Boccella joins Camden Capital from KLS Professional Advisors Group (KLS), a subsidiary of Boston Private Financial Holdings and a multi-billion dollar registered investment advisory firm headquartered in New York City. She worked at the firm for 19 years and most recently served as a managing director and member of the investment committee.

“The majority of wealth management firms do not focus on providing investment and planning advice tailored to high net worth legal professionals,” said Ms. Boccella. “Camden Capital’s independent structure, world-class investment platform and fiduciary-duty differentiate it from a majority of the national firms. A conflict-free investment offering and personalized service approach in an intimate, boutique setting is an ideal environment for the sophisticated legal community. I am thrilled to join the team.”

CEO and Founder John M. Krambeer added, “Kara is a remarkable addition to our firm. Her reputation in the legal community is exceptional. Leading legal professionals have a strong desire to access an independent and boutique-style firm that is represented by thoughtful professionals who understand their specific situations.”

Camden Capital provides unbiased investment advice and legacy planning to high and ultra-high net worth individuals and families. With a focus on developing long term relationships with its clients, the firm has grown exclusively through referrals. Camden’s relentless commitment to achieving its clients’ objectives, exclusive investment access and consolidated performance and tax reporting are at the core of its value proposition. Camden Capital has offices in Los Angeles and Palm Beach.

The Two Sides of The French Equation

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The French economy faces problems on both the demand as well as the supply side. On the demand side it suffers from very sluggish spending growth where it is underperforming many of its EMU peers. Meanwhile, there are also formidable structural problems such as a low rate of profitability, a deterioration in competitiveness and too little flexibility in labour and product markets, expains Willem Verhagen, Senior Economist Multi-Asset ING IM.

The most promising recipe to solve all this, which was in fact advocated by Draghi in his Jackson Hole speech, is to implement policies on both sides of the equation. Structural reforms are of little use if there is insufficient demand to move resources towards industries with a higher productivity. Similarly, well-targeted reforms can raise business confidence and enhance the effectiveness of demand stimulus.

Until recently, the policy prescriptions applied within the euro area have all focused on structural reform while too little attention was given to the need for demand stimulus. Until early 2013 there was even a huge fiscal contraction on the region wide level which, combined with the fall-out from the euro crisis, played a big part in the double dip recession of 2011/12.

Meanwhile, monetary policy was insufficiently loose to generate sufficient traction in overall demand. Since then, policy actions have improved as the pace of fiscal consolidation has come down while monetary policy has been eased. However, so far this is still not enough to substantially reduce the degree of slack in the economy.

French politics has wrestled a lot with the seemingly opposing demand and supply side policy prescriptions over the past few years. Before he became President Hollande campaigned on the need to generate growth but once he was in office he was quickly confronted with the fiscal straight jacked imposed by Brussels. With the appointment of Prime Minister Valls the French government became decisively more open to implementing difficult but needed supply side reforms but the recognition that demand stimulus is also needed was never completely lost. Outgoing economy minister Montebourg was very vocal in his call for less fiscal austerity but at the same time opposed structural reform. The new Economy minister is a proponent of these reforms but remains relatively silent on the need for demand stimulus.

All in all, France thus seems to have moved closer to the policy views of Brussels and Berlin which could possibly come at the cost of more domestic political problems as the support for the government in Parliament becomes thinner due to the risk of split in Hollande’s party. Partly because of this, this move could, however, perhaps paradoxically increase the leverage of France in the European debate on the need for more demand stimulus. There is an increasing recognition within the EC that the flexibility within the Fiscal Compact should be used to ease the fiscal side of things further. As argued before, the ECB is now also coming around to this view.

Fed’s Easy-Money Policy Days Appear Numbered

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The U.S. Federal Reserve has held its benchmark interest rate near zero since December 2008 and pumped trillions of dollars into the economy through monthly purchases of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities – all in an effort to stave off a full-on depression in the wake of the global financial crisis. Now that the U.S. economy is showing signs of strength, including labor growth and 4% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in Q2, continuing this ultra-accommodative monetary policy is being called into question.

A fixed-income trader, a chief economist, a European sovereign analyst and an equity manager from across Natixis Global Asset Management share viewpoints on whether the end of the Fed’s bond-buying purchases in October may spark a taper tantrum, when the Fed might raise rates, whether the Bank of England is also nearing a rate hike – and what it all means for investors.

Third quarter of 2015

“We expect that the end of the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program in October will be a non-event with little impact on broader markets. The program’s end has been very clearly telegraphed by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and thus markets have long been expecting the program to come to an end this fall. The so- called “taper tantrum” of last year was never really about markets adjusting to the prospect of incremental reductions in the pace of asset purchases; it was about markets adjusting to the prospect of an earlier than expected end to the bond-buying program”, according to Michael Gladchun, Fixed Income Trader
 at Loomis, Sayles & Company.

The FOMC has been very successful in establishing separation between their use of the balance sheet as a policy tool and their use of guidance on interest rates as a policy tool. Markets no longer look to the Fed’s use of the bond-buying program as a signaling mechanism for the rate path. Rather, markets have embraced the data- dependent nature of the Fed’s interest rate policy and are now taking their policy cues from indicators of labor market slack.

Asked if the Fed will raise rates sooner than expected, they expect an initial rate hike to occur in the third quarter of 2015. “We do not expect a material uptick in measures of core inflation over the near term. We are watching wage inflation very carefully, as we expect it to pick up and exert pressure on Fed Chair Janet Yellen and the FOMC – and again, not this year but next”.

Taking into account the progress that has been made on the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate, even moderate gains on the inflation side will further embolden the “hawkish” members of the FOMC. It appears the “hawks” will continue to push for a more rapid transition to less accommodative policy. With the Fed’s bond-buying program widely expected to end in October, the policy debate has shifted from the pace of tapering to the guidance the Fed provides on the future path of interest rates. This debate will increase in intensity as traditional measures of the employment and inflation gaps continue to close, as we expect. However, we believe that Chair Yellen and the FOMC will continue to resist the pressure from the “hawks” as long as broad labor market metrics continue to show evidence of slack and inflation expectations remain anchored.

Second half of 2015

“Timing is everything. The main challenge for the Fed as it moves toward normalizing its monetary policy will be to avoid a repeat of 1937–1938, when after a few years of strong growth, policy was normalized and then economic activity collapsed. Or more recently, you can look at the U.S. real estate market’s slowdown in 2013 after mortgage rates moved higher in the wake of then Fed Chair Ben Bernanke’s testimony to Congress in May 2013. So you really have to ask yourself, can the Fed take this kind of risk and move too fast?”, says Philippe Waechter, Chief Economist
 Natixis Asset Management.

“Investors seem to expect a first move from the Fed in March or April 2015. For the reason I just mentioned this is probably too early. I think that the second half of 2015 is preferable. Conditions are not yet leading to a strong inflation rate, which would need to be much higher than the Fed target rate of 2% for them to raise interest rates. Therefore, I think the Fed will take its time and be sure that the U.S. economic recovery is solid enough”.

About the impact of the Fed’s ending of its bond-buying purchases, he says it will be low for two reasons. “First, the reduction in asset purchases from the Fed started in January and there has been little impact on the market. In fact, long-term interest rates in the U.S. are lower now than before the beginning of the tapering. Second, the baton is being passed off to the European Central Bank (ECB). There is a kind of coordination between central banks. When one stops buying assets, another one increases its purchases. This coordination is important, and therefore I don’t believe there will be issues regarding liquidity”.

Volatility for managers

Chris Wallis, CEO, Equity Manager
 at Vaughan Nelson Investment Management:
 “Over the next couple of quarters, we think we’re going to see inflation come in a little hotter than what the market anticipates. We don’t think overall inflation is going to move so high that it will impact risk assets such as stocks. But what it should call into question is the Fed’s ability to maintain such an accommodative monetary policy”.

“As a result, we may see real volatility show up in the yield curve. Investors and markets may worry that the Fed will have to accelerate some of the interest rate increases. Or, to the extent that the Fed doesn’t accelerate rate increases, that they’ll be further behind the curve as we look out on 2015 and thus force the Fed’s hand to be more aggressive later. We think that has the potential to create angst, to create anxiety, which may cause welcome volatility for active managers who might be able to step up and build some very attractive positions”.

“At the same time as we “normalize” policy, it should pressure certain areas of the market – such as Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), utilities and other bond proxies. With that, it gives active managers an opportunity to really outperform the market on a go-forward basis. So we do welcome any incremental volatility and actually think a correction in the stock market of five to ten percent would be incredibly healthy at this time”.

In UK… hikes sooner than later

Laura Sarlo, European Sovereign Analyst
 at Loomis, Sayles & Company 
says the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has indicated that it’s edging closer toward raising short- term interest rates. “Although we expect the MPC to move toward raising rates in coming quarters, we expect the Committee to be more patient with rates, given our view that credit policy has been tightening since November via the actions of the Financial Policy Committee”.

Markets are currently pricing some chance of a rate hike before year-end, and pricing a 25 basis point hike by the end of the second quarter 2015. We view monetary policy as having already been tightening since November 2013, when the Financial Policy Committee (FPC) began deploying tools to tighten credit conditions, particularly for housing. The institutional reform of the Bank of England in 2013 has, to some extent, separated interest rate policy from credit policy, giving the BoE a more flexible and nuanced toolkit than many other global central banks.

“Solely employing interest rates is arguably an overly blunt tool to manage the UK housing market, where pressures are most pronounced in London. Over the last nine months the FPC has modified its recommendations for bank lending several times, with its most recent policy tightening announced in June. Since spring we have seen housing market activity indicators cool, and more recently there are indications that prices seem to be cooling as well.Apart from housing, wages are the other primary focus for market participants expecting rate hikes sooner rather than later. With the economy growing strongly and unemployment falling steadily, some expect wage increases to drive the need for rate hikes sooner rather than later. Yet to date, wage growth has consistently remained mild, driven, we think, by signs of remaining slack, such as the still-high percentage of temporary and part-time workersindicating they’d have accepted a full-time job if available. Also, with few signs of risk to the MPC’s 2% inflation target over the horizon, we should see some moderation in economic activity in the second half of the year”.

New York REIT Acquires Twitter Headquarters Building in Manhattan

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New York REIT, Inc., a publicly traded real estate investment trust, announced that it has closed its previously announced acquisition of Twitter’s headquarters in Manhattan located at 245-249 West 17th Street in the Chelsea neighborhood.

The property, which includes a 12-story office tower combined with an adjacent 6-story mixed use building, contains approximately 282,000 rentable square feet. In addition to Twitter, Room & Board, Inc. occupies the retail portion of the building. Flywheel Sports, Inc. is also a tenant.

“We are extremely pleased to have closed our previously announced acquisition of this flagship property strategically located in the heart of Chelsea’s “Silicon Alley”, NYC’s epicenter of creativity, technology, style, and energy” said New York REIT‘s President, Michael Happel. 

Mr. Happel added, “The building is a beautiful, gut-renovation and contains two new lobbies along with brand new state-of-the-art building systems, windows, elevators, and a stunning rooftop terrace that overlooks the Hudson River. Furthermore, we are excited to have Twitter, one of the world’s most coveted technology firms, as a core tenant.”

Rafael Tovar Leaves Compass Group to Join the Sales Team at Nikko AM

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Rafael Tovar deja Compass Group y se une al equipo de Ventas de Nikko AM
Photo: Linkedin. Rob Young. Rafael Tovar Leaves Compass Group to Join the Sales Team at Nikko AM

Rafael Tovar has joined the Sales and Marketing team at Nikko Asset Management. As confirmed to Funds Society by sources familiar with the appointment, Tovar will be based in New York serving institutional clients and family offices throughout the region of the Americas.

Tovar joins the Japanese firm from Compass Group, where he was responsible for business development for institutional clients in Brazil, Miami and New York, covering private banks, family offices, wholesalers, broker-dealers, and pension funds. Prior to that, he worked for renowned companies such as Goldman Sachs and Accenture.

He holds a Bachelor of Engineering degree from the Universidad Simón Bolívar in Venezuela, an MBA in Finance and an MA in International Studies from The Wharton School- University of Pennsylvania.

Switzerland in The Age of Transparency, Information Exchange and Anti Money Laundering

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Suiza en la era de la transparencia, el intercambio de información y la lucha contra el lavado de capitales
John Ryan, president at CISA Trust Company (Switzerland). Courtesy photo. Switzerland in The Age of Transparency, Information Exchange and Anti Money Laundering

Although collective efforts to combat international tax evasion are not new, the 2008 financial crisis saw the industrialized countries team-up against the financial centers with dramatic results. Under threat of sanctions from the OECD and FATF, the financial centers changed their laws and practices, became more transparent, adopted stricter KYC and anti-money laundering rules, and implemented mechanisms to exchange information with on-shore jurisdictions.

The 2011 OECD peer review found that Switzerland was not compliant with certain aspects of the OECD transparency standards, regarding availability of information mechanisms were lacking to identify beneficial ownership of Swiss bearer share companies and foreign companies with a permanent establishment in Switzerland and regarding access to information the Swiss authorities have no ability to access bank information under the older Double Tax Treaties (DTTs) except in cases of tax fraud. To deal with these and other concerns, Switzerland introduced legislation in October, 2013.

Traditionally, Switzerland did not exchange information in tax matters and DTTs did not contain exchange of information clauses. This practice evolved, and exchange of information clauses were gradually introduced for cases of tax fraud, not tax evasion, and were limited to enforcing the DTTs but not enforcing the domestic laws of the requesting state. Under pressure from the OECD, Switzerland abandoned its longstanding reservation to Article 26 of the OECD model Convention and agreed to implement the OECD “foreseeably relevant” standard, to eliminate the distinction between “tax evasion”and “tax fraud,”  and to amend its DTT agreement accordingly.

The new OECD standard calling for automatic information exchange was announced on February 13, 2014.  On July 21, 2014, the OECD approved and released the complete version of the new automatic standard, with annexes. The new standard will require jurisdictions to exchange information automatically on a yearly basis, including investment income (interest and dividends), account balances, and sale proceeds. Financial institutions will be required to adopt a “look-through” approach and report information on beneficial owners of legal entities and trusts. However, the OECD has apparently exempted the United States from this requirement.

As an OECD member, Switzerland has endorsed the new automatic standard, including the adoption of a “look-through” approach. Prior to adoption of the standard, Switzerland raised concerns of a level playing field. After the new standard was announced, Switzerland stated that it expects that the exemption given by the OECD to the United States from adopting a “look through” approach to be of a temporary nature. Switzerland has also stated that in implementing the new automatic standard, priority will be given to countries with which Switzerland has close economic and political ties that will provide regularization opportunities to non-compliant taxpayers and market access to Swiss institutions.

In respect of Recommendation 3 of the FATF to treat tax crimes as predicate money laundering offenses, in December, 2013, the Swiss government submitted enabling domestic legislation treating “tax fraud” as a predicate money laundering offense. The legislation, which is still pending, is expected to have broad repercussions in the Swiss banking industry as banks tighten rules on the acceptance and retention of untaxed assets to mitigate exposure to money laundering offenses.

In respect of suspicious  activity reports, the Financial Intelegence Unit of Switzerland is the Money Laundering Reporting Office Switzerland (MROS), which receives and analyses Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) filed by financial intermediaries. The Swiss FIU historically did not share financial information contained in SARs with foreign FIUs due to legal impediments under Swiss secrecy laws. However, under pressure from the FATF and The Egmont Group, Switzerland amended its anti money laundering legislation to authorize MROS to exchange SAR information with foreign FIUs.  MROS may now share information with foreign FIUs provided the foreign FIU guarantees that it will use the information solely for purposes of analyzing the SAR and that it will not share the information with third party authorities without the express consent of MROS. Furthermore, MROS may consent to the foreign FIU referring such information to its domestic authorities for prosecution, provided that the crimes are predicate offenses under Swiss law.

Why the US Sets the Tone on the Global Energy Market

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From 2018 on, the US will become a key exporter of liquid natural gas, says Van der Welle, strategist at Robeco. “New export terminals are under construction and president Obama has already issued a number of export permits. What’s more, the price of liquid natural gas is high enough to make export profitable.”

Van der Welle thinks that Japan will be the biggest customer. “Specifically exports to Japan are profitable due to the high prices of liquid natural gas. It is a market that just can’t wait for US shale gas.”

He does not expect a return to nuclear energy there. “After the Fukushima disaster, Japan has switched from nuclear energy to natural gas. The chance of Japanese nuclear power stations starting up again is small. There is little support among the population, with 95% expressing opposition. Even the Japanese prime minister Abe appears to grasp this, says Van der Welle. “He is traveling around the world talking to potential energy exporters. It’s no accident that he has visited 47 countries since he took office.”

There is a lobby for the US domestic industry – specifically the petrochemical industry – that is trying to avert further exports. But he expects this ultimately to be just a stay of execution. “The shale-gas sector has launched a counter lobby.”

“US political groups see the export of liquid natural gas as a useful ‘geopolitical weapon’ to weaken the global hegemony of an energy-rich Russia. Exporting US LNG would make other countries less dependent on Russian imports. Particularly in the wake of the conflict in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, tensions between Russia and the West have intensified and this geopolitical argument has gained ground in Washington.”

“The West’s sanctions against the Russian energy sector will not have any impact on Russian gas production in the short run. What’s more, the West is also keen to keep the gas flowing from Russia. However, sanctions are delaying the development of new gas fields in the North of the country. For its development of new fields, Russia is dependent on Western companies like Total and BP that are now becoming more reticent.

Shale-gas production will remain a US phenomenon for the time being

In the US, shale-gas production continues to increase, while it is not really getting off the ground in other countries, says Van der Welle.

“Until now, most production forecasts in the US have been realized and there is no sign of shale-gas production having peaked. “And there doesn’t seem to be any end in sight on the demand side either. In addition to exports, domestic demand is also set to keep increasing, he expects. “The huge supply of natural gas is leading to new applications in the transport sector. Trucks powered by natural gas instead of diesel.”

He doesn’t expect other countries and regions elsewhere on earth to contribute significantly to shale-gas production over the short term. “China will not become a major producer of shale gas in the next ten years. A key obstacle for them is the volume of water required for production, and what’s more, China’s geology is more complex than that of the US. And that means technological innovation is required to extract shale gas. China wants to develop new technologies together with Exxon Mobil and Shell to extract shale gas in a more environmentally friendly way.“

And in Europe too, shale gas is gradually taking off. “Trial drilling in the UK and Poland has not yet been successful and there is a great deal of opposition on environmental aspects. The European debate over shale-gas extraction would get a boost from technological innovations from China.”

The door for exports is set to open further

The international trade in natural gas is increasing as the door to exports from the US is opening further and further. Van der Welle expects this to have an effect on gas prices. “Customers will get more choice, as arbitrage between the gas markets in Europe, Asia and the US increases. Parties could for instance buy US shale gas and sell it on immediately in Asia or Europe. This will prevent gas prices from fluctuating too much, but sharp differences will remain due to transport costs. But sharp differences will remain due to transport costs.”

“US shale gas is ultimately destined for Japan and not so much China. As a US ally and traditional customer for liquid natural gas, Japan in particular could be a major buyer of US shale gas. Over the longer term, China will develop its own shale gas production and will not become a major importer of US shale gas.”

Shale gas is having a positive impact on the global economy, concludes Van der Welle. “US economic productivity is rising and the rest of the world is benefiting from cheap – or at least cheaper – imports of US coal, natural gas, diesel and chemicals. Over time, (crude) oil may well be added to this list. This week, for the first time since the nineteen seventies, a US tanker carrying a load of crude oil set sail from Texas to South Korea. ”This creates a precedent and signals the shifting balance in the global energy chain”.

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