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Maduro Would Do Venezuela a Disservice by Turning His Back on International Investors

Maduro haría un flaco favor a Venezuela dando la espalda a los inversores internacionales — Photo: Joka Madruga. Maduro Would Do Venezuela a Disservice by Turning His Back on International Investors

Venezuela’s international debt issued in hard currency has increasingly been under selling pressure in disappointment with the governments half hearted attempt to reform the hopelessly ineffective and intransparent currency regime (that includes three official FX rates) as well as President Maduro’s decision to let Rafael Ramirez become Political Vice President and release him from his hitherto duties as Economic Vice President, PDVSA President and Oil and Mining Minister. In his role as Economic Vice President Rafael Ramirez was widely respected as the longest serving cabinet member under Hugo Chavez and as one of a very few pragmatic and reform friendly politicians in the current administration. Global Evolution, an asset management firm specialized in emerging and frontier markets debt, has published a piece of research discussing theses topics.

Should Venezuela default?

Adding fuel to the fire, an article, named ‘Should Venezuela Default?‘, written by two respected Venezuelan economists, Ricardo Hausmann and Miquel Angel Santos, was published at the beginning of September, basically asking if not Venezuela should default on its foreign debt instead of letting its population down by defaulting on food imports, lifesaving drugs imports, transport and services etc. The fact that Ricardo Hausmann is a former minister of planning of Venezuela and former Chief Economist of the Inter-American Development Bank, whereas Miguel Angel Santos is a senior research fellow at Harvard’s Center for International Development explains why the article has been subject to intense focus and discussions.

The economic regime is a run down mess

According to Banco Central de Venezuela real GDP growth was running around 1% YoY in Q4 2013 while inflation has risen sharply since early 2013; from around 20% to more than 63%. In this environment of runaway inflation, price controls are common with some prices remaining fixed for several years and with gasoline being the most extreme example, being fixed for 18 years. Needless to say, a 18 years price fix on gasoline is fiscally costly and has discouraged any attempt on fuel efficiency. Anecdotally, when Global Evolution was on a trip to Venezuela in October 2013, (driving a V8 four-wheel drive SUV) filled up the fuel tank for USD 1.

The bright spots in the economy

The oil export, the current account balance together with a fairly low public debt stock and a benign foreign debt to GDP ratio are the bright spots of Venezuela’s economy. Whereas the economy and the Venezuelan society may well implode if allowed to deteriorate further over the next decade, Global Evolution has no doubt that the sovereign has the capacity to service its external debt in the coming 2-5 years.

Maduro would do Venezuela a disservice by turning his back on international investors

What the article from Hausmann and Santos questions is the willingness to pay and in this respect Venezuela has a very good track record. Of course, things may look different under President Maduro, but with oil production running at 2.5mn barrels per day and proven reserves that holds the potential to raise production to at least 4mn barrels per day (6mn in a best-case scenario) if investments are made, Maduro would logically have little incentive to turn his back on the international capital market since international investors – be it foreign direct investors or portfolio investors – would be the ones to fund PDVSA’s production expansion and the subsequent increase in hard currency earnings. Currently, at face value, Venezuela’s oil exports generate annual hard currency earnings close to USD 100bn. However, when discounted for export financing to Petrocaribe (see below) and earnings used for the repayment of the debt to China, Venezuela’s crude export generates a still sizeable USD 70bn per year.

Low hanging fruits

Given the relative benign debt servicing cost on Venezuela’s sovereign debt in hard currency and the international debt of state owned oil company PDVSA (on average a total around USD 12.5bn per year over the next 10 years), a debt default would not free up much money in a broader perspective. Instead of running the risk of being excluded from international capital markets for years, the government could pick up low hanging fruits such as the heavily subsidized Petrocaribe solidarity program in which Venezuela basically finance the purchase of crude oil for 17 Caribbean countries. If Venezuela sold oil to these countries at market prices this would easily pay for the bond maturities of both Venezuelan sovereign bonds, the bonds issued by state owned oil company PDVSA and US based PDVSA owned refinery and retail gas station chain, CITGO.

Conclusion

Venezuela is one of the few net international creditors in the World with a current account surplus, high per capita income and low levels of external debt relative to peers, so from that perspective it does not immediately appear a high risk credit. Global Evolution does not view Venezuela as a likely default candidate in the near future and expects it to continue to service its debt. Should President Maduro choose to default on Venezuela’s sovereign debt it would be purely a populist ideological decision that would do little to help the Venezuelan people or economy in the medium to longer term perspective.

Venezuela is now yielding significantly above Ecuador that chose to default on part of its sovereign debt as recently as in 2009 and above Ukraine, a country at war, in severe economic contraction and with a much less sustainable debt situation. Global Evolution is aware of the challenges facing Venezuela and remains cautious on several fronts, but all things considered, current market levels appear attractive given the risks involved.

Global Evolution, an asset management firm specialized in emerging and frontier markets debt, is represented by Capital Strategies in the Americas Region.

New York Private Bank & Trust Launches Specialty Finance Company for the Film & Television Industry

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N.Y. Private Bank se lanza al negocio del cine — Photo: Cornelius James . New York Private Bank & Trust Launches Specialty Finance Company for the Film & Television Industry

New York Private Bank & Trust and Aperture Media Partners, LLC have formed a specialty finance company providing comprehensive financing solutions to the filmed entertainment industry. The new company will operate under the name Aperture Media Partners and is structured to create a one-stop shop for producers and distributors seeking financing for film and television projects.

Aperture offers a full spectrum of standard and customized senior and mezzanine credit products including: bridge loans, finishing funds, gap loans, library advances, print and advertising (P&A) loans, production loans, sales agent advances, tax credit monetization, and ultimates financing. The company structures, lends, and syndicates loans through a network of banks, hedge funds, private equity and family offices.

Aperture is managed by Chief Executive Officer and Co-founder, Jared Underwood, and Chief Operating Officer and Co-founder, Andrew Robinson, two leading bankers in film and television finance. The two have over 30 years of combined lending experience and have financed over $10 billion in transactions to nearly every leading independent film company and producer in the industry.

John Hart, Vice Chairman of New York Private Bank & Trust and Head of its Private Banking division, welcomed the Aperture team, stating: “Aperture fits well within NYPB&T given its combination of thorough underwriting and high level of product customization.”

“Jared Underwood and Andrew Robinson already have an industry leading reputation for creative and client-centric thinking,” Mr. Hart continued. “NYPB&T will provide them with exciting new tools to fulfill their vision and further grow their thriving business.”

“We are delighted to have New York Private Bank & Trust‘s support and look forward to becoming an industry leader through our affiliation with the bank,” Mr. Underwood said. “With the backing of NYPB&T, Aperture Media Partners becomes a one-stop shop, efficiently providing senior and mezzanine capital to the film and television industry. We will be well positioned to leverage our talents and industry insights to capitalize on a number of existing and future opportunities.”

Expected Returns 2015 -2019: The Rising Economic Tide Isn´t Plain Sailing

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Is the Euro crisis over? What if China slows down? Do liquidity premium exist?

“The future is like a corridor into which we can see only by the light coming from behind.” This quote sums up the hazardous nature of the exercise to try and tell what the future will bring, certainly with respect to the world economy and asset returns. As stated by Robeco in a recently published report on this matter, all we have to go by is what we have seen in the past. So, the outlook 2015-2019 presented by Robeco in this video is as much a story about the past, as it is for the future: Robeco assumes that the long-term returns that we have seen in the past will – under normal circumstances – be a good guideline for the future. Interestingly, the further we try to look into the future, decades out, the more we tend to assume that the returns we have seen over the past hundred years will be more or less repeated. The shorter the outlook –and with short in this context Robeco refers to the five-year outlook being presented here– the more emphasis will be put on recent history.

A fair question is why it should be expected to see similar long-term, steady-state returns, even though the past hundred years can in no way be compared to the hundred to come. The simple answer, according to Robeco, is that the past hundred years have seen enough turmoil and volatility to be considered a good sample of possible hurdles that we will face in the next hundred years: wars, (hyper) inflation, natural disasters, booms, busts and financial crises – the world has had our share of turbulence. Yet underlying all this is Robeco’s conviction, which stems from their belief in the ingenuity of human beings, that we will realize equivalent returns. Robeco believes that mankind will continue to overcome complex and threatening situations. They trust that the drive of innovation and productivity gains will persist. Certainly, there will be setbacks as there have been in the past, but generally Robeco believes that growth, and with it returns on financial assets, will continue more or less as before.

You may access an Executive Summary of this report through the pdf file attached, and you may download the full report through this link.

Bank J. Safra Sarasin Announces the Resignation of Eric Sarasin

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Over recent days, the media has widely reported the ramifications of legal investigations initiated in Germany against a number of people, including Mr. Eric Sarasin. Investigations on behalf of German prosecutors have been carried out in Switzerland, said Bank J. Safra Sarasin in an statement.

“Eric Sarasin categorically denies the accusations made against him and wants to be free and available to organise his own defence. He also wants to ensure that the personal implications for him do not tarnish the image and reputation of the Bank he has served”.

“Eric Sarasin has therefore resigned from his position as Deputy CEO and member of the Bank’s Executive Committee. The Bank has accepted his resignation with regret and thanks Mr. Eric Sarasin for all his efforts and achievements over many years of collaboration”, says the entity.

51 Governments Commit to Implement Automatic Exchange of Information in Tax Matters Beginning 2017

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51 países, entre ellos varios paraísos fiscales, España y México, firman un pacto para combatir la evasión fiscal — . 51 Governments Commit to Implement Automatic Exchange of Information in Tax Matters Beginning 2017

The new OECD/G20 standard on automatic exchange of information was endorsed on Thursday by all OECD and G20 countries as well as major financial centres participating in the annual meeting of the Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information for Tax Purposes in Berlin. A status report on committed and not committed jurisdictions will be presented to G20 leaders during their annual summit in Brisbane, Australia on November 15-16.

Fifty-one jurisdictions, many represented at Ministerial level, translated their commitments into action during a massive signing of a Multilateral Competent Authority Agreement that will activate automatic exchange of information, based on the Multilateral Convention on Mutual Administrative Assistance in Tax Matters. Early adopters who signed the agreement have pledged to work towards launching their first information exchanges by September 2017. Others are expected to follow in 2018.

The new Standard for Automatic Exchange of Financial Account Information in Tax Matters was recently presented by the OECD to the G20 Finance Ministers during a meeting in Cairns last September. It provides for exchange of all financial information on an annual basis, automatically. Most jurisdictions have committed to implementing this Standard on a reciprocal basis with all interested jurisdiction.

The Global Forum will establish a peer review process to ensure effective implementation of automatic exchange. Governments also agreed to raise the bar on the standard of exchange of information upon request, by including a requirement that beneficial ownership of all legal entities be available to tax authorities and exchanged with treaty partners.

The Global Forum invited developing countries to join the move towards automatic exchange of information, and a series of pilot projects will offer technical assistance to facilitate the move. Ministers and other representatives of African countries agreed to launch a new “African Initiative” to increase awareness of the merits of transparency in Africa. The project will be led by African members of the Global Forum and the Chair, in collaboration with the African Tax Administration Forum, the OECD, the World Bank Group, the Centre de Rencontres et d’Etudes des Dirigeants des Administrations Fiscales (CREDAF).

“We are making concrete progress toward the G20 objective of winning the fight against tax evasion,” OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria said after the signing ceremony. “The fact that so many jurisdictions have agreed today to automatically exchange financial account information shows the significant change that can occur when the international community works together in a focused and ambitious manner. The world is quickly becoming a smaller place for tax cheats, and we are determined to ensure that developing countries also reap the benefits of greater financial sector transparency.”.

The Global Forum is the world’s largest network for international cooperation in the field of taxation and financial information exchange, gathering together 123 countries and jurisdictions on an equal footing. Peru and Croatia joined the Forum at the Berlin meeting.

Global X Funds Launches Two New ETFs Based on J.P. Morgan Indexes

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Global X Funds, the New York-based provider of exchange-traded funds, has launched two ETFs based on indexes developed by J.P. Morgan Corporate and Investment Bank: the Global X | JPMorgan Efficiente Index ETF and the Global X | JPMorgan US Sector Rotator Index ETF.

These new ETFs from Global X enter the market at a time when investors are increasingly interested in products linked to strategies that are designed to help manage against downside risks.

The Global X | JPMorgan Efficiente Index ETF aims to provide investors with superior risk- adjusted returns. The fund rebalances monthly, shifting exposures across five asset classes and thirteen sub-classes, while targeting an annual realized volatility of 10%. The strategy is designed as an alternative investment, seeking to generate low volatility returns across a variety of market conditions.

The Global X | JPMorgan US Sector Rotator Index ETF seeks to provide investors with the ability to participate in market upside while limiting downside exposure. On a monthly basis, the fund will select up to five US sector ETFs which have demonstrated positive recent performance from a pool of 10 possible sectors. The fund may shift up to 100% of its exposure to 1-3 year US treasuries to defend against declining or volatile markets.

“We regularly hear about the need for investment vehicles that manage downside risk”, said Greg King, Executive Vice-President at Global X Funds. “With these new funds, we can now offer two potential solutions to investors who want the liquidity and transparency of an ETF wrapper and a rules-based index approach.”

“We are pleased to see the J.P. Morgan Efficiente and Sector Rotator indexes in ETF form with Global X as the ETF provider,” said Scott Mitchell, Managing Director at J.P. Morgan.

ING Invest Emerging Markets High Dividend Celebrates its Three-year Anniversary

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In late October, ING IM’s High Dividend Equity strategy that focusses on the emerging world will be celebrating its three-year anniversary. Many investors are simply ignoring the emerging world now. But Manu Vandenbulck sees attractive valuations, and therefore opportunities.

Manu, you have been managing this strategy for 3 years now – together with your colleague Robert Davis. What are your experiences?

Very positive. I am still pleasantly surprised by the potential of dividend investing in the emerging world. Compared to developed markets, this way of investing in the emerging world is still largely unexplored territory. Asset managers are avoiding this part of the market. New funds in this area are often managed by asset managers that focus on the core markets (and have no specific knowledge of emerging equities) or exclusively focused on the emerging world (and thus lack the broad global focus of ING IM). ING IM has been specialized in dividend investing for 15 years and is a pioneer in this field.

However, a lot of investors pay no attention to dividend investing in the emerging world yet. Why is that?

I think this is largely due to outdated knowledge. A lot of investors primarily associate emerging equities with growth and think that dividend stocks underperform. But dividend stocks often outperform stocks that do not distribute any dividends, even in the emerging world. Additionally, higher growth in the emerging world ultimately translates into higher dividend growth. So dividend investors profit as well, and with a lower average risk! It is important to select the right stocks though: stocks that have the potential to offer robust dividend growth. Also, lots of investors do not know that as many as ninety percent of the shares in the emerging world pay dividends and the average dividend yield is close to 3%. The dividend yield of our strategy exceeds 4%. This is a nice income, given the environment of historically low interest rates.

There are fears of lower growth in China and higher interest rates in the US. What is your view?

There is indeed much talk about the risk of higher rates in the US and the fear that this will have a negative impact on our universe. There are of course parts of the emerging world that we believe will struggle, for example the expensive real estate stocks in Singapore and Hong Kong. In these regions, the debt ratio also has increased significantly in recent years. And so we do not invest in these companies. We believe that growth in China will be lower than in previous years as well, yet we still assume an average growth of 5% for the coming years. Also, the quality of the growth is improving. Some Chinese large banks, for example, are currently so attractively valued that we think it is justified to invest in the Chinese banking sector.

Is now a good time for investors to start dividend investing in the emerging world?

I am convinced it is. The valuation is attractive versus developed markets. The economic growth in the emerging world may not be as high as a few years ago, but it is still higher than in mature markets. That is supportive of earnings growth. Because we have seen a tremendous growth of the number of companies that share profits with their shareholders, this earnings growth will also lead to a gradual increase in dividends. Our focus on dividends and dividend growth also makes our strategy more stable. Dividends simply fluctuate less than profits that are more dependent on the business cycle. As for the macro perspective, we assume a gradual growth of the world economy. In such a situation, increases in interest rates in the US need not be a problem.

What does ING IM offer investors who opt for dividend investing in the emerging world?

First, we offer a lot of experience and proven track records. ING IM has been dividend investing since 1999. We are a pioneer in this field and offer a wide range of equity strategies focused on companies that offer above-average dividends and are able to show dividend growth. Our dividend strategies are managed in a stable team that, day after day, focuses on finding attractively priced companies that fit our approach. Within ING IM, our team can also benefit from the expertise of 25 analysts who are dedicated to their sectors, worldwide. Looking at our performances, this seems to be working well.

EDF and Amundi Set up a Partnership in Asset Management Aimed at Financing Energy Transition

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The EDF Group, a leader in low carbon energy, and Amundi, the European asset manager, have announced their partnership for the creation of a joint asset management company. The prime purpose of this company will be to raise funds from institutional and retail investors and to manage on behalf of third parties funds intended to finance projects relating to energy transition.

EDF will contribute to this project its privileged access to investment opportunities within the energy sector thanks to its world-renowned expertise in the field. The Group will be a driving force behind investment for project development, implementation and operation. Amundi will provide its investment structuration skills as well as its fund-raising capabilities.

The partnership set up between these two leaders in their relevant scopes of expertise will benefit from the wide range of activities developed by EDF with respect to energy transition, while targeting the critical mass required for streamlined investment solutions. EDF and Amundi intend to offer the market two theme-based specific investment products. The first will be dedicated to renewable energy (wind power, photovoltaic, small hydro, etc.). The second will focus on energy saving strategies for B-to-B (including electro intensive industries). EDF and Amundi have set the fund-raising goal at 1.5 billion euros.

This partnership between an asset manager and an industrial company seeks to develop a new alternative asset class, decorrelated from the volatility of traditional investment markets, in order in particular to draw long term investments for the benefit of the real economy.

The joint asset management company between EDF and Amundi is expected to create in parallel an investment fund based on high yield real estate. This approach could be extended eventually to non-energy related infrastructures.

Yves Perrier, Amundi’s CEO, said: “This partnership with EDF is part of Amundi’s strategy to design innovating investment solutions for its clients whilst addressing investment challenges faced by corporates”.

Thomas Piquemal, EDF Group’s Senior Executive Vice President in charge of Finance, said: “After our inaugural Green Bond issuance in November 2013, a reference in the developing green bond market, this partnership with Amundi demonstrates once again EDF’s ability to innovate for the benefit of energy transition financing.”

Prudential Financial to Buy Stake in Chile’s AFP Habitat

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Prudential Financial announced that it has entered into a memorandum of understanding with Inversiones La Construcción, the investment subsidiary of the Chilean Construction Chamber, to acquire an indirect ownership interest in Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones Habitat, a leading provider of retirement services in Chile that trades under the symbol HABITAT CI on the Santiago Stock Exchange.

Prudential would expect to acquire indirectly between approximately 34 and 40 percent of AFP Habitat from ILC, depending on the results of a pre-closing partial tender offer by ILC to acquire additional shares of AFP Habitat from public shareholders. Prudential would acquire its indirect interest in the AFP Habitat shares from subsidiaries of ILC for 925 Chilean Pesos per share, for a total purchase price of approximately US$530 million to US$620 million at current exchange rates.

It is expected that the transaction would result in equal ownership positions for Prudential and ILC, with a controlling stake in AFP Habitat held through a joint holding company. The transaction, which is subject to certain conditions, including receipt of regulatory approvals, is expected to close in the first half of 2015.

“Upon completion, this strategic partnership with ILC will help Prudential expand its presence in Latin America and participate in the growing Chilean pension market,” said Bill Yates, President of the Latin American region for Prudential. “ILC has a long track record of operating excellence, and shares Prudential’s values and long-term commitment to provide high-quality service to customers. We are pleased to have this opportunity to enter Chile with a distinguished local partner like ILC.”

Prudential Financial, Inc. (NYSE: PRU), a financial services leader with more than $1.1 trillion of assets under management as of June 30, 2014, has operations in the United States, Asia, Europe and Latin America. Prudential’s diverse and talented employees are committed to helping individual and institutional customers grow and protect their wealth through a variety of products and services, including life insurance, annuities, retirement-related services, mutual funds and investment management. In the U.S., Prudential’s iconic Rock symbol has stood for strength, stability, expertise and innovation for more than a century.

ROBO-STOX and ETF Securities Launch First Global Robotics ETF in Europe

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Lanzan en Europa el primer ETF sobre compañías del sector robótica global — . ROBO-STOX and ETF Securities Launch First Global Robotics ETF in Europe

ETF Securities has partnered with ROBO-STOX to launch the first European ETF providing exposure the global robotics and automation sector. ROBO-STOX Global Robotics and Automation GO UCITS ETF has been listed on the London Stock Exchange. Europe’s first and global robotics and automation ETF will provide investors with a simple, liquid and cost effective way to gain access to this rapidly evolving new megatrend in industry sectors that are growing fast.

Howie Li, Co-Head of Canvas, ETF Securities comments: “We are delighted to partner with ROBO-STOX, the recognised leader in robotics and automation investment research, to launch this innovative ETF in an exciting growth sector that no other industry classification body has been able to separately identify to date. This investment solution will provide investors with a global portfolio of listed robotics and automation companies that capture activity from both emerging and established organisations that are highly diversified across countries, sectors and market capitalisation.”

Richard Lightbound, Partner & CEO, ROBO-STOX Partners Ltd., added: “We believe the world is in the early stages of a transformational new economic era, driven by the increasing adoption of sophisticated robotics and automation technologies across all aspects of industry and day-to-day life. ETF Securities’ unique CANVAS platform and the team’s experience in bringing innovative investment products to market will help us pioneer European investment in this fast growing sector.”

After the rise of the internet age, rapid advances in technology such as machine vision, motion sensors and image and voice recognition are enabling robots to perform increasingly sophisticated and delicate knowledge-based work. This widens their application to an incredible array of industries and applications, namely across sectors such as manufacturing, services, healthcare and exploration, in addition to the automotive industry where penetration of robotics is more advanced.

As labour costs rise and the price of automation falls, companies are approaching the tipping point for the rapid adoption of robotic technologies. Aging populations and shrinking workforces will accelerate this trend. There has been a sharp rise in robotics production and sales: In the last 10 years, the worldwide annual supply of industrial robots more than doubled from 80,000 units in 2003 to more than 170,000 in 2013.

Making Robotics and Automation Investable

For investors, the growth prospects of the robotics and automation sector are compelling. However, neither the traditional Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) nor the Industry Classification Benchmark (ICB), each of which attempts to standardise the world’s industry classifications, recognises “robotics” and/or “automation” as an official sector classification.

By creating the ROBO-STOX Industry Classification, that gap in the market has been filled and investors and other interested parties can now better acquaint themselves with the corporate landscape of the robotics and automation industry.

To capture the full economic value of the robotics and automation industry, the ROBO-STOX Industry Classification has identified companies all along the production value chain. This ranges, for example, from companies that physically manufacture robots and automation machinery, to companies specialising in the types of software and technology that enable automation. This approach allows the ROBO-STOX Industry Classification to truly capture today’s and tomorrow’s “makers” within the robotics and automation industry.

The ROBO-STOX Global Robotics and Automation UCITS Index enables investors to track the sector in a highly diversified and dynamic way, ensuring it evolves with new growth trends as they emerge. The Index today comprises of 82 constituent companies involved in the global robotics and automation industry, spanning the world’s major regions. The Index constituents are selected from the ROBO-STOX Industry Classification by reference to a series of filters including that they must be listed on a recognised global stock exchanges and satisfy minimum criteria relating to market capitalisation and average daily value traded.

Within the Index, a two-tiered, equal weighting approach captures robotic ‘pure plays’ (so called “bellwethers”, currently 40% of the Index) and stocks with robotic segments (“non-bellwethers”, currently 60% of the Index). The constituents are reviewed and rebalanced on a quarterly basis.

The Index has appreciated more than four-fold, achieving an annualised rate of return of over 18% over the past ten years, substantially outperforming most major equity, tech and other asset class benchmarks. The diversified nature of the Index has contributed to its relatively low volatility over time, despite its high growth performance.

The ROBO-STOX Global Robotics and Automation GO UCITS ETF will be listed in three currency lines (GBP, EUR, US$) on the London Stock Exchange and registered for distribution in the United Kingdom, Ireland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Spain and Luxembourg.