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A Positive Outlook for Equities Despite EU’s Growth Gloom

Cambiar renta fija por renta variable europea, la recomendación de AllianzGI — Photo: Lucy B.. A Positive Outlook for Equities Despite EU’s Growth Gloom

Yet while the macro backdrop remains pretty cloudy –with significant squalls forecast from the election in Greece, difficulties in Spain and the early summer UK election– not all is actually that bleak in Europe, explained Neil Dwane, CIO of Equity Europe at Alliance GI in his last “Perspective on Europe”.

Equities remain attractively valued and offer a significant yield pickup against the financially repressed bond and credit markets, said Dwane. “Corporates are now actively engaging in industry restructurings, where, in general, Europe is at least 10 years behind the US. A weakening euro will boost European earnings in 2015, turning a five-year headwind into a tailwind at last and allowing European earnings to grow faster than US earnings for the first time since the start of the global financial crisis”.

With little correlation between economic growth and corporate profits, European companies are busily restructuring and refocussing, which is underpinning returns to shareholders and creating a good base for future profitability, argued the expert of Allianz GI. “A weak oil price is also good for Europe, releasing approximately 1 per cent of GDP to be redeployed into consumption and investment. The EU infrastructure plan may also be the first of a series of fiscal plans to truly boost demand in the coming years”, he continued.

“In Europe, investors now truly have to take more risk to obtain a return, as nearly all sovereign bonds and over half of the investment-grade credit markets yield less than 1 per cent – yet this allocation to fixed income represents approximately 80 per cent for many investors! A regional rebalancing for European investors in search of a reasonable return should see a rotation from bonds into equities in 2015”, added Dwane.

The 9th ALFI Real Estate Investment Fund Survey: Growth Continues for Luxembourg Domiciled REIFs

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The Association of the Luxembourg Fund Industry (ALFI) has released the 2014 version of its annual real estate investment fund (REIF) survey, showing the development of the Luxembourg-domiciled REIF market as at the end of 2013.

According to the survey, 2013 was a good year for Luxembourg domiciled REIFs. 15 new Direct REIFs were launched, slightly down compared with 25 launches in 2012. Early signs for 2014 are very positive, with an additional 15 Direct REIFs launched in the first six months, bringing the total of Direct REIFs surveyed to 237, with an additional 40 Funds of Real Estate Funds completing the total survey population of 277 funds.

Marc Saluzzi, Chairman of ALFI, observes: “The sector has grown 276% since 2006, a compound annual growth rate of 21%. The continued growth in the number of REIFs in Luxembourg demonstrates that Luxembourg remains a favoured location to establish and maintain multi-national and multi-sectoral regulated real estate investment funds which continue to appeal to institutional investors and fund managers around the world.”

He continued: “The introduction of the AIFMD has impacted REIFs and the slight slowdown followed by an acceleration were expected. We believe Luxembourg continues to appeal to the global REIF industry as a domicile, as it combines investor protection with well-established industry practices at a reasonable cost.”

Key findings of the survey include:

Almost all of the new REIF launches were initiated by initiators in Europe with Benelux, German, and Swiss initiators again being the most active;
The most common target sector is still‘multi-sector’, with, 57% of the surveyed REIFs investing in a variety of sectors, with a preference for ‘office’ at 27% and for ‘residential’ at 21% in 2013. 30% of early 2014 launches, meanwhile, were in the more traditionally preferred ‘retail’ sector.
A single country investment focus still represents only 41% of the geographic investment strategies. This is a rise compared with 27% and 35% in the 2012 and 2013 ALFI REIF Surveys and supports a move toward simplification, but nevertheless underlines the suitability of Luxembourg investment vehicles for multi-national investments. The vast majority of the Direct REIFs surveyed invest in Europe, whereas eight funds invest in the Americas only and eleven in the Asia/Pacific region;
Although umbrella fund structures remain popular due to practical and cost considerations, the trend over the last few years has been towards a simplification of structures and strategies; as indicated by 64% of the funds surveyed having a single compartment structure.
In total 70% of Direct REIFs are closed-ended, reflecting the inherent illiquidity of real estate as an asset class and the difficulties of achieving investor liquidity on demand;
Similar to the findings of the previous two ALFI REIF surveys, average fund sizes continue to decrease, with the most common net asset value range between EUR 100 and 200 million and with the most common gross asset value range between EUR 400 and 800 million. Funds are becoming smaller, which reflects the more cautious capital raising forecasts of 2014 and preceding years.While target gearing is down in most of the ranges, the results are mixed, indicating some optimism in relation to the ability to borrow.
Investors are predominantly European, but a significant number also come from the Americas, Asia and the Middle East. Direct REIFs are widely distributed (but with a focus on specific geographical areas), with only 27% limited to a single country, and 24% being sold in more than six countries. The growing trend toward wider distribution confirms the global appeal of the Luxembourg real estate investment vehicles, especially those set up under the Specialised Investment Fund (SIF) regime, which has accounted for all new launches over the last 30 months;
Luxembourg domiciled Direct REIFs and funds of REIFs are mainly used for small groups of institutional investors, with 84% having less than 25 investors. Only 2% reported having more than 100 investors.

Luxemburg Real Estate Investment Fund (REIF) Survey can be downloaded here.

Managers from Boston Partners, Western Asset or JP Morgan, among the Morningstar Fund Managers of the Year for 2014

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Morningstar announced last week the Morningstar Fund Managers of the Year for 2014., for the U.S domestic market. Morningstar gives awards in five categories: domestic-stock funds, international-stock funds, fixed-income funds, allocation funds, and alternatives funds.

The awards recognize managers who have not only just completed outstanding years but have tacked on a winning year to their already stellar long-term track records.

Beyond their 2014 outperformance and topnotch long-term records, this year’s winners share several important traits. “Two are repeat winners from a decade or more ago, truly an indication of the long-term excellence we like to reward. Several are closed to new investors, which we routinely view as a positive move to ensure the best outcomes for existing shareholders. Given their excellent records, all of these closed strategies could easily garner more assets by remaining open, but at the risk of lowering investor returns. Our winning managers also tend to invest alongside shareholders, another element that we see as helping ensure successful outcomes for investors. Finally, not a single winner this year is a solo manager, and several winners are rather large teams of managers, reflecting the fact that more and more funds today are team-managed. In reality, even single-manager funds are generally the work of many”.

Domestic-Stock Fund Manager of the Year: Theo Kolokotrones, Joel Fried, Al Mordecai, Mohsin Ansari, and James Marchetti

Funds: Primecap Odyssey Aggressive Growth, Primecap Odyssey Growth, Primecap Odyssey Stock, Vanguard Capital Opportunity, Vanguard Primecap Core, and Vanguard Primecap. The team from Primecap has gained fame and fortune for itself and shareholders by subadvising Vanguard Primecap for the past 30 years and Vanguard Capital Opportunity for the past 20, and advising three direct-sold Primecap funds for the past decade. The funds are all variants of the same patient contrarian growth strategy, which is based on finding stocks with great long-term growth prospects at discount prices and being willing to hang on to them until the market recognizes their worth. This publicity-shy team quietly goes about its business, with each manager handling his own sleeve of the portfolio, and some senior analysts also getting smaller sleeves to run. Because they all hew to the same investment philosophy, the overall portfolio often has significant sector or industry overweightings, but those result from independent decisions made by different managers rather than a single decision to place a big bet in one area of the market.

International-Stock Fund Manager of the Year: Dodge & Cox International Investment Policy Committee

Funds: Dodge & Cox International Stock (DODFX). Dodge & Cox has rolled out only six strategies since it opened its doors during the Great Depression. Each fund is run collaboratively by an investment-policy committee, including this one, and some members of this nine-person team also serve on the committees that direct other Dodge & Cox funds. Those funds, like this one, have put together impressive long-term records. The managers on the International Investment Policy Committee are highly experienced, to say the least. Every member of the team has been at the firm for more than a decade, and the average tenure is 24 years. Most have also spent their entire careers at the firm. The team won this award back in 2004 with five of the current nine members.

Fixed-Income Fund Manager of the Year: Ken Leech, Carl Eichstaedt, and Mark Lindbloom

Funds: Western Asset Core Bond and Western Asset Core Plus Bond. This year’s fixed-income award winner is a comeback story. The team underperformed during the financial crisis, revealing some flaws in its credit research, ineffective risk oversight, and poor communication between the firm’s macro and fundamental research teams. Since then, a number of improvements have been made to the investment process and risk management, and resources have been strengthened across the board. From 2009 through 2014, the team has guided both funds to topnotch records. Western Asset Core Bond and Western Asset Core Plus Bond land in the top quartile of the intermediate-term bond category for the trailing five- and 10-year periods ended Dec. 31. This is a great example of managers who learned something from a crisis, addressed the problems, and moved forward successfully.

Allocation Fund Manager of the Year: Anne Lester and Team

Funds: JPMorgan SmartRetirement Target-Date Series. This is the first time they’ve recognized a manager of a target-date series. As the investment vehicle of choice (or by default) for retirement-plan savers, target dates are now the largest type of allocation funds, with more than $700 billion in assets and around $50 billion of inflows last year.

Anne Lester has led the JPMorgan SmartRetirement team since the series inception in 2006, and most of the fund’s managers have spent their investment careers at J.P. Morgan. That stability has helped the series successfully blend all the key elements of target-date management: the glide path, strategic allocation, manager selection, and tactical positioning. The series’ glide path is more conservative (lighter in equities) than its peers’, but that decision is based on extensive research on J.P. Morgan’s plan-participant base. Lester and team also emphasize greater diversification than many of their peers, with the allocation including stakes in REITs, high-yield bonds, and commodities. For manager selection, Lester and team screen potential underlying funds for factors such as expected alpha, correlation between strategies, and fees. J.P. Morgan’s fund universe is of varying quality, but the team has done a commendable job selecting consistent performers from that lineup, mixing fundamental and quantitative strategies and otherwise seeking to combine funds that don’t correlate strongly. The team makes tactical moves at the margins that have, in general, added value.

Alternatives Fund Manager of the Year: Robert Jones and Ali Motamed

Funds: Boston Partners Long/Short Equity. It probably comes as no surprise that we don’t have a very big universe of alternatives managers that have Morningstar Analyst Ratings of Gold, Silver, or Bronze. That’s because most mutual funds that pursue alternative strategies have relatively short records. This year’s winner, however, is one of the longest-tenured managers in the alternative mutual funds space. Robert Jones took over Boston Partners Long/Short Equity fund in 2004, when the strategy was overhauled to its current approach. Ali Motamed, a longtime analyst on the fund who has worked with Jones for more than a decade, was promoted to the named management team in 2013.

NewAlpha AM Raises $250 Million in Seed Capital for Long-Only Strategy

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In the wake of the convergence between mainstream and alternative asset management, NewAlpha AM expands the scope of its activities beyond Hedge funds to Long Only Equity funds. The success of this new orientation is marked by 250 million dollars in capital fund raising from 12 institutional investors, several among the largest and most influential in France, for the closing of the Long Only Equity sub-fund of “Emergence”, the major French seeding platform.

For its Long-Only Equity strategy (sub-fund of French SICAV “Emergence”, created at the initiative of Finance Innovation and with the support of the French Asset Management Association (AFG) and Paris Europlace, and currently closed to new subscriptions), NewAlpha AM selected two innovative and promising asset managers for their potential to deliver higher returns, and injected 90 million dollars in acceleration capital. In doing so, NewAlpha AM lowers entry barriers for institutional investors.

Focus AM

Founded by Frédéric Motte and Jérôme Archambeaud in 2011, Focus Asset Managers (AM) is specialized in value investing and concentrates specifically on the consumer goods, manufacturing and services sectors (all caps). Focus AM’s flagship fund manages 150 million dollars in AuM and has one of the best 10-year track-records in its category.

Financière Arbevel

Jean Baptiste Delabare and Sébastien Lalevée, specialized in European and French equities respectively, took over Financière Arbevel in 2009. In just five years, the asset management firm has grown exponentially, going from 30 to 300 million euros in AuM. Its all-caps equity fund was awarded a Lipper Fund Award 2014 – French equities category, in recognition of its management over the last five-year period.

The remaining 160 million dollars in dry powder will be invested over the course of 2015.

Philippe Paquet, Managing Partner at NewAlpha AM, says “For a number of years now, NewAlpha AM has been among the leading platforms in the hedge fund arena. We absorbed Next AM in 2013 and focused our efforts in 2014 on consolidating our business model. In 2015, we intend to build on our skill set and develop business globally. We are witnessing a clear demand for investment solutions at the crossroads of private equity, absolute return and long only investing. Going forward and to leverage our new capabilities, we are going to diversify into pure Private Equity and launch at least one fund in 2015.”

Neuberger Berman Opens Office in Bogotá, Firm’s Second in Latin America

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Neuberger Berman has announced the opening of a new office in Bogota, Colombia.

Bogota is Neuberger Berman’s second location in Latin America, following the opening of an office in Buenos Aires, Argentina in 2011. Mauricio Barreto will head the office and continue to lead the firm’s client efforts in Colombia, working closely together with Maximiliano Rohm, who oversees the firm’s efforts in Latin America. Mr. Barreto will be supported by Ana Maria Roa Sarmiento and together they will service the local investment community.

“We have been working closely with Colombia’s sophisticated institutions for a number of years and want to further express our commitment to the region by establishing this local presence,” Dik van Lomwel, Head of EMEA and Latin America, said of the new office.

With the new office in Bogota, Neuberger Berman is now based in 18 countries globally. Demonstrating a growing international presence, 25% of the firm’s clients are outside the U.S. and its range of UCITS funds available to non-U.S. investors total $17.3 billion invested in equities, fixed income and alternatives strategies.

JK Capital Management: 2015 May Be a Lot More Fundamental Analysis Driven

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The past year will remain as one of the most difficult years we ever had to deal with highly macro driven markets. JK Capital Management thinks 2015 may be a lot more fundamental analysis driven.

“There is in China a very palpable sense of optimism floating around. Despite the economy slowing down and macro numbers all pointing to the same direction, president Xi Jinping managed to convince most Chinese that he was the right person to handle the task of reforming the economy”, highlights the firm.

“His fight against corruption is certainly his most high-profile achievement. Nobody seems to be above the law, not even Ling Jihua, the right arm of former president Hu Jintao, or Zhou Yongkang, the former Minister of Security and the first member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo to be arrested since Mao’s wife in the late seventies. His handling of difficult matters such as the growth of shadow banking and local government debt won him praise. By liberalizing interest rates for institutions while gradually opening up the capital account of China, he turned the Chinese bond market into the third largest in the world, at roughly USD5.3 trillion. Private companies like Alibaba and Tencent are now global giants in the world of e-commerce and have been allowed to grow exponentially despite the sensitive nature of anything related to the internet in China. By creating in October the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank with 20 other countries of Asia and USD50 billion of initial capital, China set up a platform to handle some of its overcapacity issues: It will help finance the infrastructure needs of its neighbors while selling its products and expertise overseas”.

In 2015 JK Capital Management anticipates the reform of State-Owned Enterprises to become less of a concept and more of a reality. “We see the Chinese government pushing companies to become global players. The most recent example was the merger of its two largest train makers to create a global leader almost three times bigger than its closest foreign competitor, Bombardier Transportation of Canada. In the technology space, we foresee a push in Near Field Communication, as part of new technologies promotion, the technology that allows contactless micropayments through mobile phones, as well as subsidies aimed at the development of hi-tech foundries able to compete with the Taiwanese and Korean leaders. Companies like ZTE, Huawei and Lenovo will make further headways in global markets be it in telecom equipment, servers or handsets against renowned leader”s.

At a time when macro numbers are not particularly inspiring, they believe China has the appropriate leadership and the required tools to sail through this transition phase. And, summing up, in 2015, they see opportunities in companies benefitting of SOE (state-owned enterprises) reform; in the rising global leaders from China and in the companies with key technologies.

In Asia, they remain cautious about Thailand. “Despite the support given by the population to the military junta, the new government has achieved very little last year. Going forward, we believe the military government will continue to disappoint by failing to deliver the growth needed”.

In Indonesia, the newly elected president has had a strong start by implementing sensible policies such as cutting fuel subsidies and reducing the fiscal deficit while he managed to gather almost half of the parliament around him. “We believe he will keep on delivering in 2015, giving upside potential to the rupia”h.

They continue to like the Philippines’ macro picture, although we are mindful of expensive valuations in certain areas and the fact that the 2016 presidential election will start to create meaningful noise, probably leading to stock market volatility. “As for Korea, we are cautious on the domestic economy although there is enough room for fiscal and monetary stimulus. Stronger exports led by global recovery and chaebol reforms bringing higher dividend pay-outs could bring investment opportunities in Korea despite the expectation of a tepid growth for 2015”.

Taiwan and Korea are more about stock picking than about their economies. In Taiwan they are weary about the Smartphone supply chain that may be facing a tough year.

SocGen Private Banking Appoints Eric Verleyen as Global CIO

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SocGen Private Banking has appointed Eric Verleyen as global CIO.

Eric Verleyen, CFA, joined Societe Generale Bank & Trust Luxembourg in 2005 as Head of Discretionary Management for the private bank. During his time in Luxembourg, he has contributed to the development of tailor-made portfolio management dedicated to Ultra High Net Worth Individuals.

In 2009, his responsibilities were enlarged to include Advisory Managed activities before becoming Chief Investment Officer, in charge of Discretionary Management and Advisory Management teams, as well as Products Offering in Luxembourg.

Previously, Eric Verleyen worked for KBL Luxembourg where he headed a portfolio managers team and for Sakura Bank Luxembourg.

He holds a degree from the Institut d’Administration et de Gestion of Louvain (Belgium) and was recently rewarded with the title of Outstanding Young Private Banker 2011 by Private Banker International.

CFA Institute Names New President and CEO

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CFA Institute has named Paul Smith, CFA, currently managing director, APAC and global head, Institutional Partnerships at CFA Institute, as its new president and CEO, effective immediately. Smith’s appointment comes after an extensive global search to lead the organization of more 127,000 investment professionals in 147 countries, most of whom are CFA charterholders.

Smith has more than 30 years of leadership experience in the asset management industry, including over 18 years in Asia. He joined Bank of Bermuda in Hong Kong as Asia head of securities services in 1996. After HSBC’s acquisition of the bank in 2004, he served as global head of securities services and global head of alternative funds administration based in New York, where he was responsible for the delivery of services to 2,000 investment funds with over US$250 billion of assets. Before joining CFA Institute in October 2012, Smith was chairman and CEO of Asia Alternative Asset Partners.

With extensive management and business experience at global organizations, Smith will continue to support CFA Institute efforts to champion for ethical behavior in investment markets as a respected source of knowledge in the global financial community.

“It’s a critical moment for both investors and the professionals who serve them. In his time with CFA Institute, Paul has demonstrated the bold vision and strong leadership we need to advance the profession and shape a more trustworthy financial industry,” said Aaron Low, CFA, chair of the CFA Institute Board of Governors. “Paul has made a significant contribution to the investment industry, and CFA Institute is well-positioned for continued growth and leadership under his direction.”

The selection comes as CFA Institute continues to broaden its global reach, with a stronger presence planned for both China and India, continued growth of its recently launched Claritas Investment Certificate program, an Annual Conference in April in Frankfurt, Germany, and the second annual Putting Investors First Month in May – a global series of events to unite financial professionals throughout the world in a commitment to place investor interests above all others.

“Above all, CFA Institute was searching for a solid understanding of the value of our education programs, and how the CFA charter, our codes and standards, and advocacy efforts contribute to the advancement of our mission,” said Smith. “Having served CFA Institute from within I am fully aware of its rich history and contribution to the global investment profession, and I look forward to leading the organization in pursuit of our end goal, to advance the investment profession for the ultimate benefit of society.”

Smith is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of England and Wales and an Executive Committee member of the Alternative Investment Association, Hong Kong. He holds a Masters degree in History from Oxford University, and is a CFA charterholder.

Smith succeeds the leadership of Dwight D. Churchill, CFA, who was named interim president and CEO in June of last year following the tenure of former president and CEO John Rogers, CFA.

Investors Put Cash to Work Despite Concerns Over Profits and Growth

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Global investors have put some of their cash to work in spite of a more downbeat assessment of global growth and corporate profits, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for January. Investors have regained a muted risk appetite, turning to U.S. equities, bonds and real estate. The proportion of respondents overweight cash has tumbled to a net 17 percent from a net 28 percent last month. Average cash positions have fallen to 4.5 percent of portfolios, the lowest in six months, down from 5.0 percent in December.

More than two-thirds of investors say equities will outperform other major asset classes in 2015. Accordingly, a net 51 percent of asset allocators are overweight equities, down one percentage point since last month but the third-highest reading in the past year. A net 24 percent of asset allocators are overweight U.S. equities, up from a net 16 percent a month ago. However, a net 75 percent say U.S. equities are overvalued – the highest reading since the question first appeared in 2001. The proportion of asset allocators overweight real estate has climbed six percentage points to a net 9 percent. Investors also reduced net underweight positions in bonds.

Investors are less optimistic about the economy. A net 51 percent of the panel believes the world economy will improve this year, down from a net 60 percent in December. But, as deflation surfaces in the Eurozone, expectations of stimulus from the European Central Bank (ECB) are high. This month, 72 percent predict QE to start in the first quarter. Furthermore, the third quarter is now the most likely timing for a rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, verses the second quarter a month ago.

“Lower oil prices and hopes for policy stimulus are sustaining both global growth expectations and investor confidence,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. “Amid expectations of ECB stimulus, consensus is convinced that Europe is the region to overweight in the coming year. But, on an absolute basis, European stocks will be vulnerable to headwinds from outside the region,” said Manish Kabra, European equity and quantitative strategist.

Equity allocations defy weaker corporate outlook

Allocations towards equities remain strong despite concerns about the prospects for profits and margins. A net 8 percent of global investors expect corporate operating margins to fall in the coming 12 months, up from a net 1 percent in December. The proportion of the panel expecting corporate profits to improve has fallen to a net 38 percent from a net 46 percent.

Only a small minority believes that a double-digit rise in profits is possible in the coming year. A net 53 percent now says that it is unlikely profits will improve 10 percent or more, up from a net 32 percent in December. On a regional basis, a net 41 percent of the panel says that profit outlooks are the most favorable in the U.S., with a net 20 percent backing Japan.

Oil and Energy – undervalued yet underweight

Investors see value in oil and in energy stocks – but it seems too soon for them to have made a move. A net 45 percent of respondents say that oil is undervalued, up from a net 36 percent in December and at the highest level in exactly six years. At the same time, a net 30 percent of the panel says that energy stocks are the most undervalued – up from a net 21 percent.

Allocators to energy and commodities remain weak. The proportion of investors underweight energy stocks has increased in the past month to a net 25 percent from a net 22 percent. Asset allocators have modestly increased allocations to commodities but a net 24 percent remains underweight.

Emerging markets fall further out of favor

With questions hanging over China’s economy, bearishness towards Global Emerging Market equities has intensified. A net 13 percent of asset allocators are underweight the region compared with a net 1 percent being overweight in December. Furthermore, a net 17 percent of investors say that emerging markets is the region they most want to underweight in the coming year. A net 41 percent of respondents to the regional survey say that they expect weaker growth in China in the coming year.

Eliza Pepper, Fund Selection Chief for Itau AM, Exits the Firm

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The head of offshore fund selection for Itaú Asset Management, Eliza Pepper, has left the Brazilian giant after seven years, Citywire Global publishes.

While her departure has been announced it is not yet known whether this will take place with immediate effect but her potential replacement, Jeff Lombardi, joined the group’s New York office last December as Head of Alternative Investing and Fund of Funds Group.

Lombardi is a former global head of private bank portfolio managers at Citi and is now a member of Itaú AM‘s international fund selection team.

Pepper joined the Brazilian group in 2008 to work in its New York office. Prior to this, she was head of investment manager research at UBS Wealth Management for two years. Between 1999 and 2006 she was at Citi, where was appointed head of research on its global investments platform for the wealth management division.

Itaú Asset Management runs $153 billion across all asset classes.