Large institutional investors are likely to make significant shifts in asset allocation in 2015 in response to divergent market and macro-economic trends, a new BlackRock survey has found.
The poll of 169 of BlackRock’s largest institutional clients representing $8 trillion in assets, found these investors are focused on growth rates in developed economies, divergent monetary policies and the potential for deflation. As a result, respondents predicted significant moves in their portfolios towards alternative investments and less traditional fixed income strategies that aim to provide returns across varying market conditions. Senior investment professionals at the surveyed institutions also expressed concerns about escalating geo-political tensions.
“Mixed economic growth forecasts and shifting monetary policies are significant challenges for our clients. These conditions are testing investors’ ability to generate sufficient returns to meet their long-term liabilities,” commented Mark McCombe, Senior Managing Director and Global Head of BlackRock’s Institutional Client Business. “In today’s environment, we advocate proactive risk management. We believe institutional investors should also consider alternative and non-traditional asset allocations, particularly longer dated ones that allow institutions to ride out the expected near-term volatility.”
Low rates, deflation fears in Europe and Japan
Investors are challenged by historically low interest rates and patchy economic growth in many developed economies, although they retain near universal confidence in central bank policy, according to the survey.
Investors are anticipating continued low rates with 74% believing it was unlikely the US 10-year Treasury note would rise above a 3.5% yield over the next year, while 88% also believe it is unlikely the Fed will tighten too much too soon. Meanwhile, 56% believe Europe will likely enter a deflationary regime. However, 63% believe that the European Central Bank will maintain its credibility with investors. More than two-thirds of respondents (69%) believe China’s growth will dip below 7%.
Real estate, real assets and flexible fixed income strategies favoured
Senior investment professionals expressed increased appetite for allocations to real assets, real estate, private equity and unconstrained fixed income. Six in 10 anticipate increasing allocations to real assets and approximately half plan to add to real estate (50%) and private equity (47%). Conversely, more than a quarter (26%) anticipate decreasing allocations to cash and 39% will decrease investment in fixed income. Fixed income portfolios are also changing, as many investors are moving out of core and long duration strategies while increasing allocations to unconstrained (35%), emerging market debt (38%), US bank loans (33%) and securitised assets (23%).
Mr. McCombe added: “The trend towards alternatives isn’t new, but what is surprising is the level of conviction institutions towards physical assets like real estate and infrastructure. We believe many institutions are structurally under-invested in real assets, and it is great to see they are more bullish on these strategies than they were 12 months ago. The moves in fixed income are also significant and highlight the importance of manager selection and mandate flexibility in a time of yield scarcity.”
Regional Results
European institutionsstrongly favour real assets and real estate: In Europe, senior investors were even more bullish on real assets and real estate. 69% anticipate increasing allocations to real assets against 2% saying they would decrease allocations, while 66% plan to add to real estate versus 9% who said they would decrease allocations. 36% intend to increase allocations to private equity against 14% who would decrease, while contrary to the global trend a net 9% said they would increase allocations to public equities (40% to increase versus 31% to decrease).
Asia-Pacific institutionsallocation changes in line with global investors: In Asia Pacific, institutions are showing similar appetites for increasing allocations in real assets (64%), real estate (54%) and private equity (43%) as their global peers while 44% of them anticipate moving out of fixed income. Within fixed income, allocations to high yield and long duration are expected to decrease, with unconstrained (41%), emerging markets (38%) and short duration (32%) gaining favour.
US and Canada institutionspare equity and cash exposure and add to alternatives: US and Canada respondents’ reactions to the sustained bull market in equities were to reduce their exposure with 39% indicating they would decrease equity allocations. Additionally, 20% of respondents in this region are planning on reducing cash holdings. As with their counterparts around the world, alternative strategies and assets are attracting interest, with more than a third of the respondents saying they would increase investment in private equity (46%), real estate (34%) and real assets (53%).
Photo: Teamwork. Pivotal Role of Digital Media Prompts European Managers to Enlarge Teams
Managers boost specialized teams in recognition of their value in reaching and retaining clients, finds new Cerulli Report European Sales and Marketing Organizations 2014.
The number of digital media teams with more than 10 employees leaped by 15.5% in 2014 compared with the previous year. This increase suggests that managers are reacting to the latest technological trends by hiring specialized people, rather than pre-empting the changes by training existing staff to deal with the advances.
A total of 79% of managers expect digital media headcount to climb further-an increase of more than 50% on those polled the previous year. Only 21% of managers expect to keep their resources at the same level.
Company websites are the top digital media channel used by asset managers to target advisors, institutional investors, distributors, and end consumers, according to Cerulli research. Fully 100% of managers target advisors this way, while 80% of firms use their website to pitch to institutional investors.
It is no surprise that improving websites was asset managers’ most important digital strategy for 2013 and 2014. Several managers surveyed by Cerulli said their company had customized the website with “microsites” containing material that was relevant to specific countries.
Meanwhile, social media strategies were rated less important by managers, compared with the previous year. Cerulli research found that many asset managers allocate fewer resources to social media because of its limited take-up among some channels. Only 45% of managers use social media to reach institutional investors and 35% use it to engage with end consumers.
The challenge for asset managers is to connect with clients across all devices in real time. But social media is more challenging to use as a communications tool in the financial services industry owing to the intricacies of compliance.
“Compliance and regulation are always a big concern for asset managers and the industry in general,” says Barbara Wall, Cerulli Associates’ Europe research director. “Communication is tightly regulated and there is less flexibility to be playful or light-hearted when using social media, compared with other brands,” she adds.
“As regulation, technology, and its users mature, this could change,” says Angelos Gousios, an associate director at Cerulli.
“Several asset managers said that the institutional channel prefers face-to-face interaction and targeted industry information, which is easily accessible on blogs and company websites,” Gousios says. “Social networking on a mobile device in Europe is generally more popular with younger age groups, so we might see usage of social media increase as the workforce ages,” he adds.
Photo: Ares Nieto Porras, Flickr, Creative Commons. Lyxor Launches Currency-Hedged ETF Share Classes on Euro Stoxx 50
Paris headquartered Lyxor AM launched the first currency-hedged ETF share classes on Euro Stoxx 50 index, on 17 February. It has a total expense ratio of 0.20% per annum.
Lyxor said that these hedged ETFs, Lyxor Ucits ETF Euro Stoxx 50 Monthly Hedged C-USD and Lyxor Ucits ETF Euro Stoxx 50 Monthly Hedged C-GBP, are meeting investors’ needs “in an environment where monetary policies’ misalignment has contributed to an increase in currency volatility.”
Fluctuations in foreign-exchange rates can affect the performance between the index returns in its local currency and the returns of a non-hedged ETF listed in a different currency.
Arnaud Llinas, Lyxor’s head of ETFs and Indexing, commented: “Lyxor is always looking for new investment opportunities to meet investor needs and has expanded its ETF range accordingly. Our currency-hedged ETFs tracking the Euro Stoxx 50 Index therefore offer exposure to European equities, while mitigating the fluctuations of the Euro against the listing currency.”
Lyxor has currently $6.5bn (€5.7bn) of assets under management on the Euro Stoxx 50 index, covering 50 stocks from 12 Eurozone countries.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Jorge Elías. Morgan Stanley Recruits Team of Some of the Most Seasoned RBC WM Professionals in Miami
A team of some of the most seasoned investment advisors of the international private banking office of Royal Bank of Canada in Miami has joined Morgan Stanley. Robert Alegria, Richard Earle and Javier Valle began working at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management last January.
According to information confirmed to Funds Society by sources close to the company, this group of advisors hired by Morgan Stanley, could be increased in the weeks before the imminent closure of RBC Wealth Management’s international private banking services in Miami, which is scheduled for late February.
Richard Earle and Javier Valle had worked for over 10 years as investment advisors at RBC WM, since 2002. Robert Alegria, CFA, had been working at the Canadian firm since 2001, first as a portfolio manager, and later also as an investment advisor.
RBC Wealth Management has decided to end its international private banking business in the US, confirming the closure of its offices in Miami, Houston, Toronto, and the Caribbean, as well as its international brokerage service known by the company as its International Advisory Group. The US broker dealer business continues to function throughout the country. The closure, which was released exclusively by Funds Society last September, has been carried out gradually in stages, culminating at the end of this month.
Quite a number of investment advisors from RBC’s Wealth Management office in Miami have joined other private banking projects within the market.
. Safra Appoints 12 Private Bankers from RBC Wealth Management in Miami and Aventura
Safra National Bank of New York, Safra Securities, and J. Safra Asset Management, have finalized the recruitment of a large group of investment advisors from RBC Wealth Management, which is closing its international business later this February.
Safra’s Office in Miami
Safra Securities’ Miami office has recruited Julian Stienstra, former Managing Director Americas Private Banking at RBC Wealth Management. Stienstra has been involved in the RBC group since 1976, when he joined the group in Argentina, his home country. Since then, he has worked at several divisions of the Canadian bank, both in its retail banking division and in wealth management, based in different countries, including Brazil, Canada, and finally USA (Miami). Stienstra joins the Safra team in Miami as Executive Vice President, along with three Senior Vice Presidents, Diana Gangone, Arlette Ctraro and Julio Revuleta, a Vice President, Lupe Wong, and four Assistant Vice Presidents, Nanci Zarate, Claudia Foco, Jocelyn Gonzalez, and Monica Forgang. All of them worked previously at RBC Wealth Management.
Appointments to the Aventura office and to J. Safra Asset Management
In addition, Safra Bank’s New York Aventura office has hired Diana Duys and Cybelle Marinello, also from RBC Wealth Management, both as first VPs; finally, Michael Dejana joins J. Safra Asset Management as investment advisor and Senior Vice President. Michael Dejana worked as CIO for RBC WM in New York for over12 years, and had previously held the same position for 15 years at Barclays Wealth. Mr. Dejana will be working between Ney York and Miami.
Photo: Stephanie Ouwendijk, new a vice president and portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Investments. Franklin Templeton Hires Portfolio Manager From Ashmore
Franklin Templeton Investments has announced that it has appointed Stephanie Ouwendijk as a vice president and portfolio manager.
Ouwendijk joined Franklin Templeton on 16 February 2015, as part of its Emerging Markets Debt Opportunities team which sits within the Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group.
She is based in London and reports to William Ledward, senior vice president and portfolio manager, who leads the Emerging Markets Debt Opportunities team. The team currently manages over $10bn for institutional investors.
Ouwendijk joins Franklin Templeton from Ashmore Group, a London-based emerging markets asset management firm, where she served as fund manager since June 2010. Most recently, she was part of a team responsible for External Debt and Blended Debt funds, and in particular was responsible for CEE and Africa sovereign and quasi-sovereign credits.
Prior to working at Ashmore, she was an emerging markets analyst/portfolio assistant at Gulf International Bank Asset Management. She holds an MSc in investment management from Cass Business School in London, and MSc and BSc in business administration from Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam. She is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Charterholder.
The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group is an integrated global fixed income platform comprising over 100 investment professionals located in offices around the world. The group launched its first fixed income portfolio more than 40 years ago and has been managing money for the institutional market for more than 30 years.
Global investors are significantly more positive on the outlook for Europe after the European Central Bank’s announcement of quantitative easing to reflate the region’s economy, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for February.
An overall total of 196 panelists with US$559 billion of assets under management participated in the survey from 6 February to 12 February 2015. A total of 157 managers, managing US$459 billion, participated in the global survey.
Europe’s profit outlook is at its best since 2009, according to panel members. A net 81 percent of regional specialists see the economy strengthening in the next year. Against this background, a record net 51 percent make the region their top pick in equities over a one-year horizon, up from January’s net 18 percent. A net 55 percent are already overweight.
The U.S. has been the main loser from this rotation. Overweights on U.S. equities have declined to a net 6 percent, down 18 points versus last month.
Overall, fund managers have increased their allocations both to stocks (a net 57 percent overweight, up six points month-on-month) and cash (a net 22 percent overweight, a five-point rise). This is at the expense of bonds, which are now seen as overvalued by a net 79 percent. Bonds are also perceived as the asset class most vulnerable to increased volatility this year.
Despite exuberance over Europe, the global growth outlook is little changed. This reflects declining expectations on China. A net 58 percent of respondents now expect that country’s economy to weaken over the next 12 months, the survey’s lowest reading on this measure in nearly two years.
“The ECB has successfully vanquished global deflation fears and induced the return of reflation trades in February,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Research. “Sentiment has gotten ahead of the fundamentals on European equities. It is as if there is not a single bear left. We will need to see a strong recovery very soon to keep the bulls happy,” said Manish Kabra, European equity and quantitative strategist.
Eurozone only
Investors’ new bullishness on Europe is strongly focused on the Eurozone. Non-Euro markets are out of favor. Last month, France and Italy stood out as their worst picks, but a net 42 percent of regional fund managers now intend to underweight the U.K. and Switzerland this year. They have also shifted to a negative stance on Sweden.
Autos are now European regional investors’ favored sector. A net 26 percent are overweight, a month-on-month gain of 12 percentage points. The travel and leisure area has also gained support with a 10-point rise.
In contrast, banks and insurers saw notable declines in sentiment. Month-on-month falls of 32 and 20 percentage points, respectively, have taken both into underweight territory. Utilities are now the region’s least favored sector.
Inflation fuelled
Anxiety over potential Eurozone deflation has declined with the ECB’s QE announcement. Indeed, inflation expectations are picking up. A net 29 percent of fund managers expect global core CPI to be higher in a year’s time, up from a net 14 percent a month ago.
A potential geopolitical crisis is now clearly respondents’ major tail risk. One in three identifies it as their major concern.
Gold glisters again
China’s weakening outlook is weighing on Global Emerging Markets equities, but net underweights on GEMs have declined by 12 percentage points since January to a net 1 percent.
Sentiment towards gold is also improving. Forty percent of survey participants expect the price to be higher in 12 months’ time. Last month, bears on the precious metal still outnumbered bulls.
Only a net 3 percent now considers gold overvalued, compared to a net 20 percent as recently as December.
Many investors continue to see value in oil. A net 39 percent regard crude as undervalued, down slightly from January’s reading.
Spain’s CaixaBank has announced the launch of a takeover bid for above the 50% of Portuguese lender Banco BPI on top of the 44.1% that it has owned for the last 20 years.
CaixaBank said it would pay €1.329 per share in cash to buy Portugal’s fourth bank. The price was 27% up compared to BPI’s closing price on Monday.
The number would bring the Spanish lender’s purchase price up to €1.09bn.
According to the deal, BPI’s shareholders must also vote to remove a rule that restricts CaixaBank to voting rights equivalent to 20% of BPI’s capital.
Through its current stake in BPI, CaixaBank, which is also Spain’s third-largest lender by market value, serves some 1.7m Portuguese clients.
The offer, which will be filed in Portugal’s Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários portuguesa (CMVM) once regulatory approvals will be obtained, will be completed during the second quarter of 2015, CaixaBank said in a note today.
Photo: Jacob Ehnmark. Investec Asset Management Announces Use of Stock Connect in UCITS Fund Range
Investec Asset Management announced today that funds within its flagship Luxembourg-domiciled UCITS Global Strategy Fund range will now have the capability to invest in the Chinese domestic equity market using Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect. Regulatory approval was received in December 2014 and it is believed that Investec Asset Management is the first global investment manager of UCITS funds set up to invest using Stock Connect.
This news follows the award of an RQFII (Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor) licence by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and the allocation of its RQFII investment quota by the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).
In the near future, Investec Asset Management intends to utilise its RQFII licence and quota to launch two new daily dealing UCITS funds in its GSF range, one focusing on Chinese equity exposure and the other on onshore Chinese bonds. This builds on its range of dedicated Asian investment strategies, including the Investec 4Factor All China Equity Strategy and the Investec Asia ex Japan and Investec EM Equity Strategies.
These developments allow Investec Asset Management to provide clients with direct access to mainland Chinese equity markets across both global and regional products in a product structure offering both flexibility and liquidity.
Greg Kuhnert, Manager of the Investec Asian Equity Strategy commented, ‘The A share market represents the other 50% of the China pie previously closed to foreign investors. Because of our long-term investment in the region and investment hub on the ground, this market appears rich with opportunities for investors such as us who are focused on companies demonstrating improving profitability, return on capital, capital discipline and valuations.’
Amadeo Alentorn, Manager and Head of Analysis for the Global Equity team at Old Mutual Global Investors, who was recently in Madrid . “The ECB has Disappointed by Acting too Late; There Was an Opportunity to Change the Sentiment a Year Ago”
After the last few years of constant increases in the equity markets, uncertainty is once again starting to make an appearance, in response to aspects such as the divergence in worldwide monetary policies, or the political and electoral events which could cause significant changes over the course of the year. In this current backdrop of greater uncertainty and volatility, the proposal of Old Mutual Global Investors, which recently presented in Madrid its long / short global equity strategy with an absolute return perspective (Global Equity Absolute Return), makes complete sense.
It is a totally neutral market strategy with zero exposure to market or beta, and uncorrelated with the market behavior, which makes it a good strategy to diversify risks. “It has an absolute return profile that is generating much interest among Spanish investors and looking for a 6% return over liquidity,” says Amadeo Alentorn, Manager and Head of Analysis for the Global Equity team at Old Mutual Global Investors. Something that has been achieved in recent years with a volatility of around 5% and which has allowed it to increase its assets to 3 billion dollars (of the total 5 billion which the company manages in equity, between this and other long only strategies).
Behind their success lies a systematic model, which, out of a global universe of 3,500 companies with the largest capitalization and liquidity in the world, selects 700, through the implementation of five criteria of a fundamental nature: valuation, growth, sentiment analysis, business management, and market dynamics.
These criteria change their weight and become more or less important depending on the market situation. Thus, the model has a number of historical situations by which it analyzes which factors have worked better, and acts accordingly. Therefore, the emphasis changes depending on the economic climate: if the market falls, the greatest weight will be on the quality of the companies, business management, etc., factors that tend to work better. “Currently, the sentiment is neutral: there is still risk aversion, despite the ECB. Although volatility will grow, and is greater than in the past, it’s still not too high. The current economic climate values strong balance sheets and the quality of the companies, the most defensive stocks; and valuation criteria do not work too well,” says the manager. In his opinion, the ECB has disappointed markets by acting too late, and a year ago would have had the opportunity to change the sentiment; hence he predicts lateral movements in the markets and increased volatility.
The model, which gets its profitability mainly from stock selection (i.e. choosing the securities on the long side to be better than short), also gets profitability through sector positions, which can afford to have some exposure: for example, they are short on energy securities and long in defensive sectors such as the health sector or utilities. In fact, amongst their long positions in Spain these sectors stand out, in securities such as Iberdrola and REE, for the strength of their balance sheets and sustainable growth of the sector. But regardless of sector positions, exposure is zero in currency, regional positions, or by country, the manager explains.
Amadeo Alentorn, Manager and Head of Analysis for the Global Equity team at Old Mutual Global Investors, works from London within a team consisting of two others managers, analysts, and training experts.
