Julius Baer announced on the presentation of 2015 half-year results that it has agreed to acquire, for an undisclosed amount, 40% of NSC Asesores, S.A. de C.V. (NSC), the largest independent financial advisory firm in Mexico. NSC, which is based in Mexico City, manages assets of close to US$ 3 billion and has enjoyed strong growth in the past years. The acquisition would mark Julius Baer’s entry in the second largest wealth management market in Latin America.
NSC specialises in discretionary portfolio management and advisory services for high net worth individuals, based on independent and unbiased advice, which makes it a particularly good cultural fit. The company was founded in 1989 and is currently led by its 12 partners, of whom Claudio Núñez acts as CEO and Mariví Esteve as CFO & Head of Strategic Planning. It employs a total staff of 46.
The current management team will continue to run the business independently with the existing staff and pursue the same client-focused strategy. Julius Baer will be represented on the Board of Directors of NSC by two members. Both parties are confident that the future close cooperation will add further growth momentum to NSC’s business development.
The stock market falls in June illustrate the extent to which the financial markets are becoming increasingly dependent on political decisions while at the same time reflecting economic reality less and less. This is the view of Guy Wagner, Chief Investment Officer at Banque de Luxembourg, and his team, published in their monthly analysis, ‘Highlights’.
The lack of agreement between Greece and its creditors hung over the stock markets in June. The S&P 500 in the United States, the Stoxx 600 in Europe, the Topix in Japan and the MSCI Emerging Markets all fell. “The market falls illustrate just how dependent the financial markets have become on political decisions even though these are increasingly divorced from economic reality,” says Guy Wagner, Chief Investment Officer at Banque de Luxembourg and Managing Director of BLI – Banque de Luxembourg Investments. “Provided the political blackmail strategies like those we saw in the negotiations between Greece and its creditors do not lead to a general destabilisation of the financial system, investors are likely to continue to favour equities due to the lack of prospects of an increase in yields on the bond and money markets.”
Static global economic situation
The global economic situation is fairly static, with no major signs of picking up or slowing down. In the United States, activity is getting back to normal after a weak start to the year. In Europe, the economic situation is improving slightly due to the weak euro, albeit without any sign of a significant recovery. In Japan, the economy is continuing to mark time. In emerging markets, there is continuing fragility in several of the major economies, such as China, Brazil and Russia.
Eurozone inflation should stay in positive territory in the coming months
With the stabilisation of oil prices, inflation rates have consolidated at low levels. In the United States, inflation edged up from -0.2% in April to 0% in May. In the eurozone, the inflation rate remained in positive territory, at 0.2% in June compared to 0.3% in May. “Unless oil prices drop back, eurozone inflation should stay in positive territory in the coming months,” says Guy Wagner.
Core eurozone countries’ long rates still unattractive
The upturn in long rates that began at the end of April continued in June. The rise in bond yields affected the peripheral countries rather than the core eurozone countries due to the uncertainty over the situation in Greece. Over the whole month, the 10-year government bond yield rose in Germany, Italy, Spain and the United States. “Despite the rise, the long rates of core eurozone countries are still unattractive. In industrialised countries, US government bond yields are the only valid alternative given that they still have potential to appreciate if deflationary pressures set in,” suggests the Luxembourg economist.
Markets no longer worried by Greece’s possible exit from the eurozone
Despite the uncertainties over Greece, the euro firmed slightly in June. Greece’s possible exit from the eurozone no longer seems to concern the markets unduly, given that there is only a low risk of contagion to other peripheral countries. And given the last news and the deal with Europe. According to Guy Wagner: “Despite the recent stabilisation of the euro, the dollar’s upward trend that began in May 2014 is set to continue as long as a US interest rate hike in the second half of the year remains the most likely scenario.”
Old Mutual Global Investors announces that, subject to shareholder approval, the US $212m Old Mutual Asian Equity Fund managed by Josh Crabb, Head of Asian Equities, will evolve into an equity income generating strategy.
With a target date of 30 July 2015, the Fund will be renamed the Old Mutual Asian Equity Income Fund.
The Fund, which has been managed by Crabb since October 2014, is a sub-fund of the Dublin domiciled Old Mutual Global Investors Series plc umbrella fund. It is managed by Crabb and his team, who are based in Old Mutual Global Investors’ Hong Kong office. Since Josh took over as manager, the Fund has been in the first quartile of its peer group and has delivered 4.18% above the index (MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan) ².
The Fund’s investment objective is evolving based on client demand and the change of name reflects this. The Fund aims to deliver a total return for investors, with a focus on income, as well as capital growth. It will invest in companies from across the market cap spectrum and will aim to pay an above market yield from across the economic cycle.
Old Mutual Global Investors believes this development will benefit clients as they will be able to access the region’s growing dividend stream as well as obtaining above average earnings per share growth. Studies show that the Asia Pacific region over a ten-year cumulative period has paid consistently higher dividends as a percentage of total returns than both the US and Europe, as well as delivering overall higher total shareholder returns.
Crabb has an investment career spanning over 18 years, which includes a proven track record of managing Asian income funds.
Josh Crabb comments: “As the worldwide population ages, the search for income, and in particular equity income, is at the top of the investment agenda. By evolving the Old Mutual Asian Equity Fund into an income fund we are aiming to meet the demands of those investors who look to receive an inflation-proofed income, without sacrificing their capital growth.
According to the latest research from global analytics firm Cerulli Associates, anticipated reforms in Mexico have created opportunities for international asset managers. These findings and more are from Latin American Distribution Dynamics 2015: Economic Challenges at Home Forcing Global Investment Approach, a just-released report developed in partnership between Cerulli Associates and Latin Asset Management.
The Mexican mutual fund industry’s assets under management (AUM) grew by 10% in 2014, marking its third double-digit rise in three years.
The combined AUM of the Afore and mutual fund industries in Mexico stood at over US$277 billion as of year-end 2014, which puts Mexico in the second spot, behind Brazil, in terms of total AUM for locally regulated companies. Yet most market participants acknowledge that AUM should be much, much larger considering the country’s size.
Reforms in both pension and mutual funds are under consideration in Mexico, and the implementation of many new rules are expected to be rolled out soon.
“On the pension side, the new rules include measures to strengthen the social safety net, which will likely lead to larger flows directed at Afore pension managers, and will make the Afore investment regimen more flexible,” explains Thomas V. Ciampi, founder and director of Latin Asset Management. “A big part of this added flexibility will include greater margins for international investment via separate-account mandates.”
“On the mutual fund side, major reform is underway with some structural changes to the industry, as well as a planned rollout of new open-architecture fund platforms that regulators hope will lead to a new era of third-party distribution, new product development, enhanced advisory services, and increasedinvestor sophistication,” Ciampi continues.
It seems European investors followed this old market adage in May 2015, since equity funds faced outflows of €3.1 bn. But, even more noteworthy, the European mutual fund industry faced a slowdown in flows into long-term mutual funds. Those are two of the conclusions of Lipper’s latest monthly snapshot of European fund flow trends (data as at end May 2015).
“That said, the European mutual funds industry still enjoyed net inflows of €16.3 bn into these kinds of products for May, but the flow numbers stood far behind the numbers of the former months of the year. Opposite to April, the majority of the flows went into mixed-asset funds (+€18.9 bn), followed by bond funds (+€1.1 bn), property funds (+€0.6 bn), and commodity funds (+€0.4 bn). On the other side of the table, equity funds faced the highest outflows (-€3.1 bn) from long-term mutual funds, followed by alternative/hedge products (-€1.4 bn) and “other” products (-€0.4 bn)”, point out Detlef Glow, Head of EMEA research, who wrote this report.
Key highlights below:
The European funds industry enjoyed net inflows of €16.3 bn into long-term mutual funds for May. Mixed-asset funds (+€18.9 bn) were the best selling asset class overall, followed by bond funds (+€1.1 bn). Meanwhile, equity funds faced net outflows (-€3.1 bn).
Money market products faced overall net outflows of €12.8 bn for May, split into inflows of €1.0 bn into enhanced money market funds and outflows of €13.7 bn from money market funds.
The single market with the highest net inflows for May was once again Italy (+€4.9 bn), followed by Switzerland (+€2.1 bn) and Germany (+€1.5 bn). Meanwhile, Spain (-€1.5 bn), Austria (-€0.4 bn), and Finland (-€.0.2 bn) stood on the other side.
Intesa SanPaolo, with net sales of €2.5 bn, was the best selling group of long-term funds for May, slightly ahead of BlackRock (+€2.5 bn) and Pioneer (+€2.0 bn).
The ten best selling funds gathered inflows of €6.3 bn, 38.98% of the overall inflows for May, showing that fund flows in Europe are highly concentrated.
“For bond funds inflows were driven by funds domiciled in Switzerland (+€1.8 bn), followed by funds domiciled in the international fund hubs (+€0.8 bn), Sweden (+€0.6 bn), France (+€0.5 bn), and Denmark (+€0.4 bn). On the other side Spain (-€1.8 bn) was once again the domicile with the highest net outflows from bond funds, bettered somewhat by funds domiciled in Germany (-€1.1 bn) and Austria (-€0.5 bn)”, explained Glow.
Bob Doll / www.youtube.com. Así va la quiniela de Bob Doll para 2015: cuatro aciertos, cuatro interrogantes y dos predicciones incorrectas
At the beginning of this year Bob Doll, Senior Portfolio manager and Chief Equity Strategist at Nuveen Asset Management described 2015 as the year when investors transition from disbelief to belief, or from skepticism to optimism. Sir John Templeton coined the phrase, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” Nuveen believes we are entering the “optimism” phase. As Doll points out, 2015 is on track to be another decent year for U.S. equities as we experience:
Solid momentum in U.S. economic growth with low inflation,
A pickup in consumer spending based on job growth, confidence and a positive wealth effect,
Solid earnings growth,
Stimulus from low commodity prices and financing costs and
A still-good liquidity environment aided by stimulus from non-U.S. central banks.
Midway through the year, these statements largely hold true. These are the predictions Bob Doll made at the beginning of the year, and how they are faring:
U.S. GDP grows 3% for the first time since 2005 (X) Although Bob Doll believes the U.S. will grow 3% for the rest of the year, the weak first quarter will make it difficult for the year as a whole to average 3%.
Core inflation remains contained, but wage growth begins to increase (✔)U.S. inflation appears to be bottoming as it moves from very low to low levels
The Federal Reserve raises interest rates, as short-term rates rise more than long- term rates (?) Both short- and long-term U.S. bond yields have started to rise in anticipation of Fed rate hikes,1 which Nuveen expects will begin in September.
The European Central Bank institutes a large-scale quantitative easing program (✔) This happened in January, and the effects are being felt in Europe, where growth is improving to some degree.
The U.S. contributes more to global GDP growth than China for the first time since 2006 (✔)As a result of U.S. growth improving and China’s growth slowing, this one is heading in the right direction.
U.S. equities enjoy another good yet volatile year, as corporate earnings and the U.S. dollar rise (?) This is the seventh year of the bull market in the United States. The S&P 500 Index has never risen for seven consecutive calendar years,yet Doll highlights this is a distinct possibility in 2015, even if only by a modest amount.
The technology, health care and telecom sectors outperform utilities, energy and materials (✔) If we were scoring these predictions in degree of correctness, this would be at the top of the list. As of last week’s market close, these favored sectors in the U.S. are up an average of 6.6% for the year while the other three are down 3.7%.
Oil prices fall further before ending the year higher than where they began (?) Oil fell earlier in the year before experiencing a recovery. If the year ended today, this one would be proven correct
U.S. equity mutual funds show their first significant inflows since 2004 (x) Equity mutual fund flows have actually been negative so far this year as investors have been moving out of U.S. stocks.Nuveen expects investor confidence will pick up and that flows will increase, but they acknowledge they will likely be on the wrong side of this prediction
The Republican and Democratic presidential nominations remain wide open (?)The list of Republican candidates is longer than virtually anyone predicted. While Hillary Clinton remains the Democratic front runner, her candidacy is not without its difficulties.
Looking Ahead
While U.S. equities are no longer table-poundingly cheap, Doll beleives that they offer better value than other financial assets and should outperform cash, bonds, inflation and commodities. Even though equities are likely to advance further, the pace of gains is likely to be slower than what investors experienced during the first six years of this bull market. Nuveen believes U.S. equities are likely to produce average annual returns somewhere in the mid-to-high single digit range. Within the U.S. equity market, they prefer mid-cycle cyclicals, companies that can generate positive free cash flow and those with higher levels of domestic earnings.
All market prices are as on 6/26/15 according to Morningstar Direct, Bloomberg and FactSet
UBS has confirmed that William Kennedy will succeed to Andreas Schlatter as global head of Distribution for its global asset management business after Reuters has revealed a UBS internal memo.
Kennedy will take up his new duties in mid-September and will be based in Zürich. He will report to Ulrich Koerner, president of UBS Global Asset Management.
“With his strong client focus, his thorough knowledge of products and his wide network across units, William Kennedy is the ideal candidate to lead the further transformation of our global distribution organisation,” said the memo which was reported by Reuters and signed by Koerner and UBS Wealth Management president Juerg Zeltner.
Prior to this, Kennedy was head of Investment Products and Services at UBS AG.
UBS Global Asset Management had €616bn in assets under management as at 31 March 2015.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto: José María Silveira Neto. El S&P 500 en 2.250 puntos, la apuesta de Fidelity para los próximos 12 meses
Bloomberg has introduced the first tool in the marketplace to help banks and other financial institutions identify covered funds under the provisions of the Volcker Rule. More than a dozen banks are using Bloomberg’s Covered Funds Identification (CFID) tool to automate the process of detecting and tagging covered funds ahead of an upcoming compliance deadline.
Beginning on July 21 of this year, most U.S. banks and foreign banks with U.S. operations must divest ownership interest in, and sponsorship of, covered funds, which include CLOs, CDOs, CMBS and other securitizations. Classifying which third-party instruments are considered covered funds is a challenging and often manual process. While the overarching rule is straightforward, there are many nuances and exceptions that must be considered. In most cases, making the right determination involves a review of prospectuses and deal documents, many of which are not readily available to individual institutions.
CFID uses nearly 30 data fields to automatically extract relevant details from offering documents to classify securities against the requirements of the Volcker Rule covered funds regulations. CFID also provides details about ownership structure, deal type, tranche type, and collateral, as well as an industry-defined decision tree that addresses the Volcker Rule covered fund requirements. When one of more than 200,000 securities incorporated in the tool is viewed on the Bloomberg Professional service, a tag appears indicating whether the security “is a covered fund,” “is not a covered fund” or “legal review required.”
The tool can also help buy-side firms discover market liquidity and price discrepancies for covered funds.
“Banks and other financial institutions are still struggling with the requirements to identify and monitor instruments affected by the Volcker Rule,” said Ilaria Vigano, Head of Regulatory and Accounting Products at Bloomberg. “Working directly with industry stakeholders, Bloomberg developed a way for traders and back office teams to eliminate the need to conduct lengthy manual reviews of portfolios. Now, more than a dozen banks are using our tool to verify which investments are covered and build a compliance program that helps ensure covered funds are not reacquired.”
. Allianz Global Investors Names Global Head of Fixed Income
Allianz Global Investors has recently promoted Franck Dixmier as global head of Fixed Income. He has also joined the global executive committee.
In addition to his new duties, Dixmier remains chief investment officer Fixed Income Europe and CEO of Allianz Global Investors France. Dixmier joined Allianz Group in 1995 as fixed income portfolio manager.
He became head of Fixed Income at AGF Asset Management (former AllianzGI France) in 1998. In 2008, Dixmier became a member of the executive committee and chief investment officer of Allianz Global Investors France.
He started his career at MACSF as fixed income manager.
Allianz Gl has €454bn of assets under management as at 31 March 2015.
The lack of hedge funds’ excess returns since the financial crisis put the industry under rising pressure. The 12th edition of the White Paper by Lyxor Research issued this month, “A New Era for Hedge Funds?”, reviews the causes and identifies the key hedge fund performance drivers. Lyxor puts to test these drivers under 3 long-term macro-economic scenarios. It is reasonable, in their view, to expect hedge funds to deliver an annual excess returns in the 5-6% range above the Libor 3M, with low volatility.
Criticism against the lack of hedge funds outperformance climaxed in 2014. Hedge funds have underperformed traditional asset classes since the financial crisis. Despite its outstanding track record over recent decades, the industry has come under rising pressure.
The collapse in volatility and yield might be the main culprits. Volatility neared the mid-90’s all time lows in 2014 as a result of a combination of factors. According to the White Paper the unprecedented global monetary reflation was undoubtedly the most powerful one. Subject to growing risks constraints and a positive correlation between equity and bonds, hedge funds only partially benefitted from the asset reflation which unfolded since the financial crisis. Meanwhile the plunge in volatility and asset dispersion shrunk the potential for alpha generation. Lyxor emphasizes that the Volatility / Correlation / Dispersion regimes are key hedge fund return factors. For instance, a low volatility environment is negative for alpha generation and this has hurt hedge fund performance during the time the Fed has tamed volatility with its QE programme. One response of the hedge fund industry was to significantly lower both management and performance fees.
A sustainable inflection in market regimes unfolded since mid-2014. Reflation policies, as highlighted by the study, have indeed inflated DM financial assets. Valuations are stretched in most classes. The economic cycle is maturing, and the Fed policy is about to normalize. As a result, the alpha environment has improved, while that of the traditional asset management is getting more challenging. As of end-May, the Lyxor Hedge Fund Index is up 4% year to date, while the S&P 500 in total return is up 3.2% and 10y sovereign bond prices are in negative territory both in Europe and in the US. It is no coincidence that hedge fund assets keep on breaking their highs, going north of $3tn.
In this white paper, Lyxor evaluates the drivers of hedge fund returns. It tests their structural exposures under 3 macro-economic scenarios over the next 5 years. Using conservative assumptions, the study estimates that hedge funds could deliver annual excess returns in the 5-6% range over the Libor 3M, with lower volatility than that of risky assets. In order to reach these expected returns, hedge funds would have to deliver alpha in the range of 3-4% per year, the rest being market beta. The research sets several scenarios for market developments and their influence on hedge fund return, finding that a scenario in which the Fed tightens faster than expected by the market would boost hedge fund returns. Meanwhile a scenario in which the US economy would face secular stagnation, leading to continued monetary easing would be the less supportive.
LyxorAM believes that diversifying portfolios with an increased allocation to alternatives is particularly attractive at this stage of the cycle. According to the firm, hedge funds have demonstrated their ability to protect portfolios against wide market fluctuations, a scenario that cannot be excluded when the Fed turns the screw.
