Natixis Global Asset Management Shows Solid Growth in Net Revenues

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During the first half of 2015, Natixis Global Asset Management has experienced a strong growth of its business, obtaining a new record of net inflows of US$ 33 billion worldwide and managing about US$ 923 billion in assets under management.

According to the latest information published about their earnings, Natixis Global Asset Management was profitable over the past first six months of this year. When comparing its first half revenues to those of 2014, it showed a solid growth in net revenues with an increase of 25% at current exchange rates. However, if constant exchange rates are used, the growth in net revenues is lower, with an increase of 8%. Moreover, the gross operating income of this first half has increased a 35% compared to last year first half.

The largest increase of net inflows came from their business in United States, with US$ 19 billion of net inflows or 57.6% of the total net inflows, which made a total in asset under management of US$ 471.8 in the United States.

The next largest bulk of net inflow came from Europe, where its net inflows totaled US$ 12 billion, making a total in asset under management of US$ 417.7 billion for the European region.

In Asia, the net inflows totaled US$ 0.8 billion, while the Asian assets under management made a whole sum of US$ 8.2 billion. The rest of net inflows, US$ 1.2 billion approximately, were not specifically assigned to any region, although the rest of asset under management, US$ 6.6 billion were attributed to the private equity division.

Lastly, it should be highlighted that there were strong flows in fixed-income for American and European affiliates with US$ 22 billion in net new money.

GGM Capital Launches GGM Multistrategy, an IT-Centric Alternative Fund

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GGM Capital lanza GGM Multistrategy, un fondo alternativo centrado en tecnologías de la información
Photo: JImmyReu, Flickr, Creative Commons. GGM Capital Launches GGM Multistrategy, an IT-Centric Alternative Fund

GGM Capital, the investment banking IT focused boutique, is launching its new Technology-centric, open-ended fund under the umbrella of a Luxembourg SICAV-SIF. This new fund will have a target size above €50.0m and will invest in a diversified portfolio of equities, private equity/venture capital funds and corporate debt.

The objective is to achieve strong capital appreciation by investing in a diversified set of asset classes with various maturity levels, yields and risk profiles.

The asset allocation is outlined as follows: the equity portfolio, representing a majority of the invested assets at all times, will be composed of equities of technology companies listed in key financial markets such as NASDAQ, NYSE, LSE, Euronext and Xetra. For this purpose, GGM Capital will leverage on its extensive proprietary trading experience and in particular its strong track record developing successful intraday trading and short term swing strategies.

GGM Multistrategy will invest a smaller part of its assets under management in less liquid instruments, be it either investment funds or corporate debt, with generally a hold to maturity strategy. The objective of this part of the portfolio is to provide foreseeable returns with are not correlated with the equity portion of the portfolio.

GGM Capital will leverage of the combined 40+ years experience in capital markets of David Moix, Gabriel Padilla and Guillermo G. Morales as well as its positive track record achieved by GGM Capital managing venture capital investments in the technology space.

Guillermo G. Morales Lopez, Executive Chairman of GGM Capital said: “I’m excited to offer our investors a new innovative instrument leveraging on our experience and track record. We had been working hard in building up this amazing strategy during the last years and now we are pleased to offer this one of a kind investment opportunity to the market”.

Gabriel Padilla, Partner of GGM Capital added: “Our investors have asked us to develop an open-ended, diversified product to deepen their investment relationship with us. I believe we now have the right product for this purpose.”

Mirae Asset Global Investments Expands U.S. Mutual Fund Sales Team

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Mirae Asset Global Investments Expands U.S. Mutual Fund Sales Team
Foto: Gregory Slobirdr Smith. Mirae Asset Global Investments expande su equipo de ventas en Estados Unidos

Mirae Asset Global Investments (USA) LLC, or Mirae Asset USA, the investment advisor for the Mirae Asset Discovery Funds, has announced that it has hired four new wholesalers to help drive mutual fund growth in the United States, according to PR Newswire.

Mirae Asset USA manages over US$ 5.3 billion in equity and fixed income assets. Its mutual fund products, such as the Emerging Markets Great Consumer Fund and the Asia Great Consumer Fund, focus on Asia-centric strategies that leverage Mirae Asset USA’s emerging market heritage and on-the-ground presence to deliver high-conviction portfolios and quality long-term performance for investors in the United States.

“At Mirae Asset USA, we add more to our advisor relationships by providing them with a consultative sales process and resource for emerging markets expertise that the advisory community can rely upon,” said John Capeci, Head of National Accounts and Mutual Fund Sales at Mirae Asset USA. “Our new wholesalers are instrumental in ensuring we maintain that standard as well as achieve our growth objectives in the U.S. through increased sales and distribution.”

Additions to the mutual fund sales team include:

Adam Young joins as a Regional Vice President and Emerging Markets Specialist for Texas and Oklahoma. Before joining Mirae Asset USA, he provided advisor coverage for South Texas and Southern California as an Internal Sales Consultant at Invesco. Mr. Young is a graduate of the University of Houston and is a Certified Financial Planner.

Brian Malizia joins as a Regional Vice President and Emerging Markets Specialist for Illinois, Wisconsin and Indiana. Mr. Malizia joins Mirae Asset USA from Alpine Woods Capital Investors, where he was responsible for covering financial advisory clients in the greater Chicago area. He is a graduate of Xavier University.

Patrick Przybylowski joins as an Internal Wholesaler for Northern California and New Jersey. Most recently Mr. Przybylowski worked as an Internal Wholesaler for KBS Capital Markets Group LLC and has seven years of industry experience. He is a graduate of Franklin and Marshall College.

Timothy Spelman joins as an Internal Wholesaler for the New York Metro area and Southwest region. Mr. Spelman has nine years of industry experience and previously served as an Associate Sales Director at Third Avenue Management. He is a graduate of The Catholic University of America.

The external wholesalers report to John Capeci. The internal wholesalers report to John Whitaker, Regional Vice President and Emerging Markets Specialist for Ohio and Michigan, who adds to his responsibilities the role of Sales Desk Manager for the firm’s newly-formed internal sales desk.

These hires add to the recent additions to the U.S. sales team of Tony Matheson, who serves as Regional Vice President and Emerging Markets Specialist for Northern California, Washington, Oregon and Northern Nevada, William Clinton, who serves as Regional Vice President and Emerging Markets Specialist for New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Delaware, and Christopher Begbie, who serves as the Regional Vice President and Emerging Markets Specialist for Maryland, Virginia and North Carolina.

Mirae Asset USA’s sales team now consists of 10 external wholesalers, three internal wholesales and one client portfolio manager.

Gilbert Addeo Appointed Chief Operating Officer of Investment Placement Group

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Gilbert Addeo Appointed Chief Operating Officer of Investment Placement Group
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrGilbert Addeo, nombrado COO de Investment Placement Group - foto cedida. Gilbert Addeo, nombrado director de operaciones de Investment Placement Group

Investment Placement Group (IPG) has announced that industry veteran Gilbert “Gil” Addeo has been appointed Chief Operating Officer and Head of Business Development. Mr. Addeo, will be based in San Diego and report directly to Mr. Adolfo Gonzalez-Rubio, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of IPG.

With over 20 years of experience in the financial services industry, Mr. Addeo will be an integral member of IPG’s executive leadership team with direct oversight of compliance, operations, trading, private banking, finance, information technology and business development.

Mr. Addeo most recently served as a Director at Pershing LLC, a BNY Mellon Company, where he oversaw the international Relationship Management teams. Prior to that, Mr. Addeo served as the Head of Business Development and Relationship Management at Bear Stearns Clearing Corp.

Mr. Gonzalez-Rubio commented, “We are very happy to have Gil become part of the IPG team. Having known Gil for many years, I can say that he is a talented leader and brings a lot of expertise to IPG. I look forward to working with Gil and I am confident with his leadership we can achieve our goals of attracting new advisors to our platform.”

Mr. Addeo commented, “I am very excited to become part of the IPG team. IPG is a great organization with a 30 plus year history of success and clear vision of growth in both international and domestic markets. IPG has all the tools from dynamic global trading in Equites, Fixed Income options and commodities, partnerships with the top clearing and custody platforms in the industry and access to various investment products for our clients. This is the perfect environment for advisors looking to gain independence with a fully developed platform to support them. I look forward to the opportunities ahead.”

Schroders Multi-asset Investments and Portfolio Solutions Announces Hires

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Schroders Multi-asset Investments and Portfolio Solutions Announces Hires
Foto: EvelynGiggles, Flickr, Creative Commons. Schroders incorpora a Chris Hsia y Mei Huang a su equipo de Multiactivos

Schroders has announced two further hires within Multi-asset Investments and Portfolio Solutions (MAPS), a business which manages £75.5 billion (as at 30 June 2015) on behalf of its clients globally.

Chris Hsia joins Schroders as Product Manager for MAPS, from Morgan Stanley where he spent the last 16 years, most recently as the Chief Investment Officer for Bank Morgan Stanley AG and as the Head of Investment Products & Solutions for International Wealth Management within Morgan Stanley &Co. As MAPS Product Manager Chris will help drive the product-led communications of a selection of MAPS strategies. Chris will work with Schroders regional Product Managers, relevant consultant and distribution teams to ensure Schroders’ clients have all of the relevant information that they require. Chris will report to Henriette Bergh, Head of UK and European Product & Manager Solutions.

Mei Huang joins Schroders as Quantitative Analyst, from the Global Equities research division of HSBC Asset Management. Prior to this Mei worked at AQR Capital Management LLC as Portfolio Manager within the Global Stock Selection (GSS) team. There Mei co-managed AQR’s global equities funds and strategies. Mei will report to Peter Weidner, Head of Advanced Beta, Multi-asset Quantitative Research and will be responsible for researching and constructing advanced beta equity strategies.

Nico Marais, Head of Multi-asset Investments and Portfolio Solutions commented: “Strengthening our ability to interact with clients around investment outcomes and building our Advanced Beta capabilities are key initiatives. We are therefore pleased to have Chris and Mei join the MAPS team in their respective roles.”

Aberdeen to Purchase Arden Asset Management, to Strengthen its Global Alternative Platform

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Aberdeen to Purchase Arden Asset Management, to Strengthen its Global Alternative Platform
Foto: Getty Images. Aberdeen compra Arden Asset Management para fortalecer su plataforma global de alternativos

Aberdeen Asset Management Inc announced it has entered into an agreement to acquire Arden Asset Management LLC, a provider of hedge fund solutions with offices in New York and London.

This acquisition is in line with Aberdeen’s strategy to strengthen and grow its global alternatives platform encompassing multi-manager research and selection across hedge funds, private equity, and property along with direct investments in infrastructure projects. This means that Aberdeen can offer its clients access and exposure to high quality alternative investments across liquid strategies, private markets and real assets.

Arden is a hedge fund specialist that creates and manages hedge fund portfolios across the liquidity spectrum using its proprietary manager selection and portfolio construction processes. Arden advises on and manages assets on behalf of a wide range of clients, including corporate and state pension plans, sovereign wealth funds, global bank platforms and retail investors. In 2012, Arden launched an innovative, daily liquidity product into the US market providing diversified, alternative investment strategies allocating to many brand name underlying hedge fund managers. The business is complementary to Aberdeen’s existing hedge fund solutions capability and the two teams will be fully integrated. This will position Aberdeen as a leading hedge fund investor with over 30 investment professionals and around US$ 11 billion of assets under management for the combined team.

The transaction provides key benefits to Aberdeen, it grows Aberdeen’s alternatives platform and enhances their position in the US and global institutional investor market. It represents immediate entry into portfolios of liquid alternative products in the US and adds US-based investment professionals, with an investment process which is highly complementary to Aberdeen’s, broadening their global platform.

The transaction is subject to regulatory approval from the UK FCA and notification to the Irish Central Bank. It is also subject to obtaining the approval of the Board of Trustees and shareholders of certain mutual funds.  The aim is to complete the transaction during the fourth quarter of 2015.

In May, Aberdeen announced the acquisition of FLAG Capital Management, a manager of private equity and real asset solutions. Aberdeen’s alternatives platform, overseen by Andrew McCaffery, Global Head of Alternatives, will have total assets under management of over US$ 30 billion following completion of both transactions.

Pakenham Partners and Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP served as financial advisor and legal advisor to Aberdeen on this transaction. Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP served as financial advisor and legal advisor to Arden.

Commenting on the transaction, Martin Gilbert, Chief Executive of Aberdeen Asset Management PLC, said: “Institutional investors are looking to hedge fund solutions to offer risk-return profiles not available via mainstream strategies and traditional asset classes. The acquisition of Arden emphasizes further Aberdeen’s commitment to diversifying its overall business and to growing its alternatives platform. The deal significantly strengthens our hedge fund solutions capability and expands our global client base.  Arden’s liquid alternatives platform in the US is particularly attractive as it provides investors with exposure to a portfolio of hedge fund-like strategies but importantly offers daily liquidity.”

Commenting on the transaction, Averell Mortimer, CEO & Chairman of Arden, said: “We are thrilled to be joining Aberdeen, a leader in the global asset management industry. The deal creates a combined hedge fund platform with international reach overseen by an experienced team of investment and operational professionals.  Becoming part of Aberdeen will enable us to share ideas and best practice that will assist in continuing to build on our proven track record of developing customized hedge fund and liquid alternative solutions for clients worldwide.”

Emerging Markets Debt Should Perform Better Over The Next Few Years

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Emerging Markets Debt Should Perform Better Over The Next Few Years
Foto: Sonny Abesamis . La deuda de los mercados emergentes debería comportarse mejor en los próximos años

The Greek crisis dominated news flow over the month, culminating in the country defaulting on its IMF payment. The situation remains fluid and highly uncertain, however, aside from some short-term volatility, the Investec AM team feels that the wider market impact for emerging market investors is negligible. There have been, in their view, much more pertinent developments for the asset class elsewhere during the month. First, there has been a palpable pick-up in US economic activity after the ‘soft patch’ earlier in the year, which has implications for US interest rates. Second, China’s fiscal and monetary policy appears to be becoming more stimulative, in an attempt to reduce the risks associated with a more severe economic slowdown, says the team in the Emerging Market Debt Outlook.

“Our base case remains that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will start its rate hiking cycle in September.” It states. However, the firm remains of the opinion that we will see a very gradual tighteningcycle from the Fed thereafter, and even that first hike will likely be accompanied by very dovish wording. Market volatility over June saw investor inflows to EMs weaken to its slowest pace of the year, although EM debt flows remain positive (source: IIF). Volatility may persist until we see greater clarity on the path of Fed rate hikes, but they continue to believe that we will not see drastic outflows from the asset class.

Investec AM remains cautious in its global outlook for growth.The firm is encouraged by stronger data from developed markets, but data flow from emerging markets, in their view, remains disappointing. The asset management firm expects Chinese growth to moderate further. While recent easing measures should prevent a sharp deterioration, they see too little underlying domestic demand for an uptick in growth in the short-term.

“We believe that inflation remains well-contained across most EMs, and the moderate growth outlook in China means we don’t foresee upward surprises from commodity prices, while worries over any upside risks from El Nino weather effects are subsiding” the report says. “We believe that the asset class, despite short-term headwinds, should perform better over the next few years” it concludes.

 

 

 

Scott Powell Takes Up the position of CEO at Santander Bank, In Addition to SHUSA’s

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Scott Powell asume el puesto de CEO en Santander Bank, además del de SHUSA
Scott Powell - Photo LinkedIn. Scott Powell Takes Up the position of CEO at Santander Bank, In Addition to SHUSA’s

Scott Powell, who, in March 2015, was appointed head of US business at Santander, and CEO of Santander Holdings USA, has been appointed by the board of Santander Bank, NA, CEO of this financial entity, replacing Roman Blanco.

Blanco, who returns to Spain to take on new responsibilities within the group, has been associated to the bank’s business in the United States for the past three years. As reported to Funds Society by a spokesman for the financial institution, during the first year, Blanco headed the business in Puerto Rico, and later assumed the position of CEO of Santander Bank, based in Boston.

In March, Powell took up office as head of the Holding under which all of the group’s businesses is concentrated, including Santander’s international private banking business in Miami and operations in Puerto Rico, which had has until then depended on Spain. Before joining the group, Powell spent eight years directing various businesses for JPMorgan Chase, having also worked for two years for Bank One and 14 years for Citi, always in the United States.

Furthermore, the bank has also appointed Michael Cleary responsible for Consumer and Business Banking, reporting to Scott Powell. In his new role, Cleary will be responsible for Retail Banking, Auto Finance and Business Banking and the respective area managers will report to him.

Cleary comes from Citizens Financial Group, where he was Group EVP and head of US distribution, overseeing branches, network planning, mobile and online banking, contact centers, sales planning and strategies, premier banking, wealth management, and business banking. He has over 30 years experience in banking and finance in the United States. Prior to joining Citizens, Michael held various leadership roles at JP Morgan Chase & Co. and Bank One, including EVP and CEO of Chase Business Banking, and CMO and COO of Chase Retail Bank. Michael has a BA from Princeton University and an MBA from Dartmouth’s Tuck School of Business.

Innovation and Demographics: Growth Opportunities From Global Themes

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Cinco ideas de Henderson para aprovechar distintas oportunidades en renta variable
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Sasha Kohlmann. Innovation and Demographics: Growth Opportunities From Global Themes

Six years into a stock market recovery fuelled by coordinated and repeated bouts of quantitative easing, equities have arrived at a very interesting point in the road. The asset purchasing intervention by many of the developed world’s central banks drove bond yields to historic lows, forcing traditional yield-hungry fixed income investors to venture into the equity markets. While it is difficult to argue that, overall, valuations in equity markets are not now becoming somewhat stretched relative to historic levels, when compared to the meagre returns on offer from fixed income, the premium to historical averages looks easier to justify.

The Henderson Global Growth strategy applies a thematic overlay to identify areas of the market that are underpinned by a disruptive innovation or demographic trend, which is expected to drive long-term secular growth. Here, managers Ian Warmerdam and Ronan Kelleher analyse the themes of Energy Efficiency, Healthcare Innovation and Internet Transformation.

Higher growth has become overlooked

In recent years, there has been a keen focus and significant investment in high yielding equities, typically characterised by low growth and mature businesses, and this has led to a corresponding increase in relative valuations in this area versus the wider market. The knock on effect of this has been, in Henderson´s view, that parts of the higher growth areas of the stock market have become overlooked, resulting in attractive entry points for the longer term investor. This is precisely the area of the stock market in which we operate, scouring the globe for pockets of underappreciated long-term secular growth.

Thematic-based opportunities

On the Henderson Global Growth strategy Ian Warmerdam and Ronan Kelleher, managers at Henderson, apply a thematic overlay to identify areas of the market that may provide stock ideas that fulfil our long-term, fundamental investment criteria. Both maintain a focus on a small number of themes; each underpinned by a disruptive innovation or demographic trend that is expected to drive secular growth over the long term. Henderson current themes include: Energy Efficiency, Paperless Payment, Healthcare Innovation, Internet Transformation and Emerging Markets Growth. Here, we touch on three, but all provide a breadth and depth of investment opportunities.

Energy Efficiency: going Continental

“Energy Efficiency is a theme that has served us well in recent times”, said Warmerdam and Kelleher. The quest for greater energy efficiency is being driven by a combination of factors; environmental concerns, rationalisation of finite reserves of carbon-based fuels and governments’ pursuit of energy independence. Confronting these issues, governments in countries covering 80% of global passenger vehicle sales have set stringent targets for fuel economy or emissions.

In the US, for example, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has mandated that the average passenger car’s fuel economy must increase from around 35 miles per gallon (mpg) today to 56mpg by 2025. Continental, the German listed manufacturer of auto components and tyres, benefits from these trends. The company enjoys strong market positions across its powertrain division, which integrates innovative and efficient vehicle system solutions with a broad portfolio of engine parts from turbochargers to start-stop technology, geared towards increasing fuel efficiency and reducing emissions.

Healthcare Innovation: ‘MinuteClinics’

“Another fruitful hunting ground for long-term growth has been Healthcare Innovation. Here we are attracted by the demographic changes at play as an ageing global population, as shown in the chart below, struggles to contain ever rising healthcare costs. Increases in life expectancy mean that the global 60+ age group is expected to double by 2050 to two billion people. We are attracted to companies such as CVS Health, the US pharmacy chain, which provides an integrated health care service for its customers”, point out both managers at Henderson. For example, they said, CVS now operates around 1,000 walk-in “MinuteClinics” across its 7,800 stores where patients can get a variety of everyday illnesses and injuries treated at a fraction of the time and cost of going to see a GP.

Internet Transformation: moving online

Finally, Warmerdam y Kelleher explained that Rightmove, a long-term holding within our Internet Transformation theme, is a stock we continue to like. The leading online UK property listings company has had a turbulent 18 months following a period of uncertainty surrounding the impact of a third entrant into its market. “We believe the proficient founder-led management team at Rightmove has done an impressive job at the helm, and the company has rightfully emerged as a more dominant leader in a market that should continue to benefit from the structural shift in advertising spend from offline to online”, concluded.

 

 

 

Julius Baer CIO: “Things Are Falling into Place for a Calmer Second Half of the Year”

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Julius Baer CIO: “Things Are Falling into Place for a Calmer Second Half of the Year”
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrBurkhard P. Varnholt, director de Inversiones de Julius Baer. Julius Baer: “Todo se está poniendo en su sitio para que la segunda mitad del año sea más tranquila”

Global financial markets are entering calmer water. European policymakers once again bought some time with a last-minute deal for Greece, while the Chinese authorities flexed their muscles to contain the damage on their equity market. Even the negotiations with Iran yielded a positive surprise last week. According to Burkhard P. Varnholt, Head of Investment Solutions Group and CIO, still, an escalation of the conflict in eastern Ukraine or of some of the religious tensions in the Middle East can never be ruled out. “But the bottom line remains that we expect a period of moderate growth and limited disruptions. Central bank policy will remain accommodative, which is the backbone of our long-held strategy to maintain a meaningful exposure to equities”.

And things are falling into place for a calmer second half of the year, he says.

Greece: Buying Time

The latest support programme for Greece, as painful as it may look for the Greek pensioners and consumers, is not solving all problems. “We may argue how much damage the referendum has done and how necessary a debt restructuring may be. Yet at this juncture, we note that the Greek crisis has not derailed the eurozone recovery. A strong demand for Greek goods and services –in particular tourism – is the best for Greece to emerge from the crisis”.

The outlook for European equities remains favourable. Peripheral economies will benefit from a positive feedback loop of lower yields, better conditions for lending and stronger growth. “Our exposure to European equities thus remains meaningful”.

FED’s Yellen Stays on Course

Fed Chair Janet Yellen used the opportunity to repeat her mantra before the US Congress last week. She reiterated her positive view on the US economy and her conviction that the first rate hike is due later this year. Incoming data of consumer confidence and private consumption are not weak enough to keep the Fed from starting the interest-rate hike cycle.

At the same time, they are not strong enough either to boost earnings expectations. In fact, for the full year, US companies’ sales are expected to remain unchanged from last year. About one quarter of the S&P 500 companies have published their results for the last quarter so far, with sales down by an average of 0.5% and earnings up just 2.5%.

China’s ‘Whatever It Takes’

The widely observed correction of the Chinese domestic equities must be put in perspective. It only occurred after a triple-digit advance of the market, and the Chinese benchmark indices for domestic shares are still up materially year-to-date. The volume of margin balance accounts, i.e. levered trades, had surged from CNY 1 trillion at the beginning of the year to CNY 2.3 trillion by mid-June and is down to CNY 1.4 trillion now. These figures may look massive but they are dwarfed by the volume of international reserves and other buffers the Chinese administration has at its disposal to pursue its policy targets. Given the strong commitment of the government and the central bank to support the equity market, the risk of a further implosion of the Chinese equity market is rather small. “Hence we maintain our positions in Asian equities as well as Chinese renminbi offshore bonds”.

PBOC at Odds with Gold

Over the course of the last two decades, China has grown so much in size and influence that its moves and intentions can hardly been ignored. The collapse of the gold price last Friday is the latest example of China’s impact. For the first time since April 2009, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) published its official gold holdings. They were up 604 tonnes during this six-year period, much less than the market had anticipated. Indeed, gold accounts for only 1.5% of China’s international reserves, while it can make up to 75% in Western central banks’ balance sheets. The price of gold fell immediately after the publication of the figures, as strategists had to scale down their estimates for central bank absorption as investors’ confidence in the precious metal was further eroded. “We have no exposure to gold in our asset allocation and are not intending to change this anytime soon”.

Iranian Deal Weighs on Oil

Political news flow is almost too good to be true. The US and Cuba have restored diplomatic relations, while Iran has signed an agreement to swap better control of its nuclear facilities for an end to the embargoes. The latter deal is weighing on the oil price as Iran’s production is likely to come on the market in the medium term. It is our long-held view that supply is outpacing demand on the global commodity market, arguing against taking a position in commodities for the time being.

“Among the central bank meetings scheduled for the next couple of days, it is fair to say that the Fed stands out. We expect the US central bank to confirm its positive economic view and to reiterate its pledge to raise rates later this year. Barring any negative surprises, we should have no EU summit anytime soon, leaving us some respite from the hectic of late”.