Uruguay Launches New Bond Offering Due 2027 and a Tender Offer

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On Monday October 19th, the Government of Uruguay, following the line used by other emerging countries, sought after external funding prior to the US Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates. Uruguay, which has investment grade ratings of Baa2 / BBB / BBB-, launched a global bond US dollar denominated maturing at 2027, and it also offered to buy back government bonds maturing at 2017, 2022, 2024 and 2025; whose outstanding amount is around 2,800 million dollars, according to Reuters.

Uruguay launched its new 2027 maturing US dollar denominated bonds at a spread of Treasuries plus 245bp, according to one of the lead managers of the transaction. The launch spread is at the tight end of guidance of 250bp area and inside initial price thoughts of 265bp area. The amortizing bond has an average life of around 11 years and is part of a broader liability management operation.

The deal is being done in conjunction with a one-day cash tender for outstanding 9.25% 2017s, 8% 2022s, 4.5% 2024s and 6.875% 2025s, for which Uruguay is offering a purchase price of 114, 127.50, 106.00 and 119, respectively.

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Tender Offer

The new money component of the trade is around US$ 1.2 billion, the lead manager said. Citigroup, HSBC and Itau BBA are the lead managers on the transaction.

 

Signs That European Earnings Are Picking Up?

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¿Existen indicios de que están repuntando los beneficios europeos?
Photo: KMR Photography. Equity Income: Why Big Is Not Necessarily Best When it Comes to Dividend Yield

The Henderson Horizon Euroland Fund utilises a proprietary analytical screening tool to identify stocks that are being incorrectly priced and offer value in the market. This is a model that fund manager Nick Sheridan has been developing since he first started running money in the late 1980s. The model is based around four key metrics: ‘Dividends; Earnings; Net Asset Value; and Value of Growth’, with the portfolio constructed from those stocks that offer the most overall value. This article looks at the ‘Earnings’ pillar in more detail.

“Higher corporate earnings has been the missing piece of the puzzle for European equities, but this seems to have finally started to come through, with most companies at least in line with estimates during the latest earnings season. Loose monetary policy and quantitative easing (QE) have helped, as has the currency advantage provided by a weaker euro” points out Sheridan.

Furthermore, while the negative effects of falling energy costs are well known, for many companies (and particularly those involved in travel, transportation and retail, plus energy-intensive industries) lower energy costs provide a significant boost to net earnings, freeing up money to spend on expansion and employment. Indirectly, with consumers benefiting from what is effectively a tax cut, companies can also profit from a consequent boost to consumer spending, explain the portfolio manager.

But Sheridan warns that any assessment of earnings should be viewed with an element of caution, and as just one metric to assess the investment potential of a stock. While a company may offer a sustained level of earnings, this may already be reflected in its price, with the risk being that an investor may be forced to pay a premium for the stock.

Companies in the portfolio are likely to be durable, well-established names with experience of trading through varied economic and business conditions. This should help to make the fund’s earnings profile more robust. RELX, Bayer and ASM International are a few examples from the current portfolio.

Beware of Risky Assets in 2016

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According to Axa IM, you can add risky assets in the short term “but beware of 2016”. The asset manager believes that after a sharp slowdown in the first half
 of the year, the global economy is stabilizing. “Yet, sluggish demand, -especially in China, led us to trim our
 global GDP forecast for 2016 from
 3.3% to 3.1%.”

They believe that while US consumers remain on a
strong footing, weaker global demand will weigh on the manufacturing sector, thus they see US growth at 2.2% in 2016, down from the previous 2.5%. In regards to China, because of a construction overhang, their estimate is 6.3%. In Europe and on the back of the VW scandal, they believe growth will be of 1.4%.

Considering the softer environment lived in the first half of 2015, Axa thinks growth will prevail. “If anything, the next quarters might see a gentle improvement in growth momentum” they say, adding that they do not believe that the later-than- expected Fed hike is a negative, that valuations have corrected sufficiently and that equity markets “are simply oversold”.

Nevertheless they warn that “While we remain overweight in the near term, we reckon that clouds are gathering over our longer term equity view. Today we suggest reducing our long-held overweight. First, 2016 is expected to see mildly weaker overall growth around the globe and the risks for 2017 are presumably skewed to the downside.”

M&G: Brazil Is Not Russia so Don’t Expect Brazilian Bonds to Deliver Russian Returns

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M&G: "La deuda corporativa brasileña no dará unas rentabilidades tan elevadas como las del crédito ruso en lo que va de 2015"
. M&G: Brazil Is Not Russia so Don’t Expect Brazilian Bonds to Deliver Russian Returns

After Fitch’s revision of Brazil rating to BBB-, Charles de Quinsonas, co-fund manager of M&G Emerging Markets Bond Fund, has published an article in the Bond Vigilantes blog, comparing Brasilian and Russian bonds.

Here, his toughts:

Brazil has been facing the perfect storm since the re-election of Dilma Rousseff in October 2014 and asset prices in Latin America’s largest country have collapsed. Credit default swaps on Brazil 5-year sovereign debt in US dollar and hard-currency corporate bond spreads widened to as much as 545 bps and 938 bps respectively, as at the end of September 2015, which is higher than during the 2008/09 global financial crisis and the highest since Brazil’s 2002 crisis. The adequate level of foreign exchange reserves – one of the few positives for the country – did not prevent S&P from downgrading Brazil’s sovereign rating to junk last month, which was inevitable given the weak macroeconomic and political environment.

Against this backdrop, many bond investors are looking at Brazilian assets in the same way they opportunistically eyed Russia at the beginning of this year. Russia, which was downgraded to junk by both S&P and Moody’s respectively in January and February of this year, has generated one of the best returns year to date in the emerging market debt universe. Russian hard-currency corporate bond spreads have tightened by more than 30% (or 273bps) year to date despite the ongoing economic sanctions from Western countries, low oil prices and weak Ruble and Russia 5YR CDS has rallied 32% (180bps) year-to-date to 370 bps as at 9th October 2015.

When looking at corporate bonds as per the above graph, Brazil’s recent widening in spreads with a peak after the September sovereign downgrade to junk shows some similarities to what Russia experienced earlier this year in January/February when a number of Russian corporate issuers became fallen angels to speculative grade. While they never recovered their investment grade ratings, Russian corporate bonds then outperformed the rest of emerging markets. Will Brazilian corporate bonds follow the same path in the short term? This is unlikely as Brazil is not Russia.

First, the macro picture is very different. Although both economies have plunged into recession this year, it was the result of external factors for Russia while Brazil is arguably facing more domestic headwinds than external threats. The Russian economy has been hard hit by the international sanctions and low oil prices. For Brazil, political issues (an out-of-favour President and the massive Petrobras corruption scandal) are arguably at least as detrimental to investor sentiment as low commodity prices are to its negative terms of trade.

Second, Russian issuers have shown incredibly resilient credit fundamentals in the current economic environment. The weak Ruble has been helping exporters (oil & gas, metals & mining, chemicals) to improve their competitiveness as their costs are in local currency and their revenues are in US dollars. Facing a virtually closed primary market over the past 12 months, Russian issuers have also shown strong discipline in keeping leverage down and maintaining adequate cash levels in order to meet debt maturities. Finally, the scarcity of bonds has been helpful from a market technicals point of view. In Brazil, this is quite the opposite. Many issuers have significant external debt on their balance sheet and the weakening Real has materially increased debt levels in US dollars and interest expenses for domestic players with no hedging in place. Leverage is on the rise as both debt levels increase and earnings reduce on the back of the recession in Brazil and weak commodity prices. In addition, the “Lava Jato” (Car Wash) corruption scandal is likely to remain an overhang on almost all corporate debt issuers in the country.

In this context, we expect default rates to increase in Brazil. Unlike Russia, which has been broadly a macro call in the first 9 months of this year, credit differentiation in Brazil will be critical and bond returns uneven. There is no doubt that some opportunities for decent returns have emerged among unduly punished bonds, but Brazilian corporate bonds as a whole are unlikely to generate such strong returns in the short term as those seen in Russian credit so far in 2015.

London Moves Ahead of New York, Leading the Global Financial Centers Index

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London Moves Ahead of New York, Leading the Global Financial Centers Index
Foto: August Brill . Londres supera a Nueva York y lidera el Global Financial Centers Index

London has moved ahead of New York to reclaim the number one position in the eighteenth Global Financial Centres Index, published by Z/Yen Group and sponsored by the Qatar Financial Centre Authority. This year edition of the Index (GFCI 18) rates 84 financial centers.

This are the top 10

London climbed 12 points in the ratings to lead New York by eight points. The GFCI is on a scale of 1,000 points and a lead of eight is thus fairly insignificant. “We prefer to see London and New York as complimentary rather than purely competitive” says the company. It is noticeable that assessments for London have been higher since the general election in May 2015.

London, New York, Hong Kong, and Singapore remain the four leading global financial centers. New York, in second place is now 33 points ahead of Hong Kong in third. Tokyo, in fifth place, is 25 points behind the leaders.

Western European centersshow signs of recovery. The leading centers in Europe are London, Zurich and Geneva as in GFCI 17 and Frankfurt has moved up into fourth place just ahead of Luxembourg. Of the 29 centers in this region, 23 centers rose in the ratings with Dublin doing particularly well. Liechtenstein appears in the GFCI for the first time and is ranked 60th. Reykjavik continues to reverse some of its recent decline.

Eastern European and Central Asian centers prosper. The leading center in this region is now Warsaw in 38th place, just ahead of Istanbul. The top seven centers all saw an increase in their ratings but the largest decline in this region was St Petersburg.

Twelve of the top 15 Asia/Pacific centers see a rise in their ratings. With the exception of Hong Kong and Singapore, the top Asia/Pacific financial centers have all seen their ratings increase in GFCI 18. Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo and Seoul remain in the GFCI Top 10.

All North American centers are up in the ratings. However, due to continuing rise of some Asian centers, San Francisco, Chicago, Boston, Vancouver and Calgary and suffered small declines in the ranks. Toronto remains the leading Canadian center and is now the second North American center behind only New York.

Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro rise strongly. Sao Paulo remains the top Latin American center in GFCI 18, and along with Rio de Janeiro, made significant progress n the ratings and rankings. Mexico was the only center that fell in the GFCI ratings. The Cayman Islands and the Bahamas also showed good improvements.

Mark Yeandle, Associate Director at the Z/Yen Group and the author of the GFCI said “Whilst London and New York still lead the field, the next four centers are all Asian.”

AXA IM: “Market Volatility has Created Opportunities for Fixed Income Investors”

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 Even though the rapid decline in oil prices is coming to an end, for many oil producers -like those in the shale market in the US and offshore oil fields-, the current oil price is a problem. According to Chris Iggo, CIO Fixed Income Europe and Asia at AXA Investment Managers, lower prices are pushing commodity-reliant countries to devalue their currencies and Saudi Arabia recently announced that the current oil price has forced them to sell some foreign investments to cover a fund deficit.”

Nick Hayes, manager of the AXA WF Global Strategic Bonds, believes thatThe declining oil price has also impacted high yield markets… We favour nominal bonds over inflation-linked bonds given the outlook for inflation. The main concern for us now is where oil prices will settle, and it’s important for fixed income investors to lower their expectations of inflation given the chance that falling commodity prices will continue to impact the level of inflation.”

During the last year, the managers have been decreasing the amount of high yield and emerging market debt exposure and they believe that we will see a rise in government bond yields once the current risk-off environment subsides. “A bear market in credit has created opportunities for us – especially with the increase in the number of negative credit ‘events’ which means we can increase credit allocations at higher spreads and yields,” says Hayes.

In regards to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy, they believe that “the US economy will continue to prosper, which will periodically get people excited about the potential for a rate hike, but the global economic environment is likely to stay weak. The domestic US labour market is still very tight, but wages are picking up, as they are in the UK. However, higher wages don’t immediately translate into inflation. Core inflation has so far stayed low, removing oil from the calculation. It’s difficult to have a view on 1-2 year inflation figures, but central banks will continue to set rates to reach inflation targets. What I would like to see is the Fed being more decisive – raise the rates and be confident about the state of the US economy.” Considering this, Hayes prefers the Eurozone over US interest rate risk. “Given attractive valuations, we have increased our allocation to investment grade corporate bonds, which has started to offer interesting yield levels for high quality credit, ” he comments.

Hedge Funds Bleeding Slowly versus Market Hemorrhage

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Los hedge funds aguantan el tipo en septiembre
Photo: Michael Kooiman. Hedge Funds Bleeding Slowly versus Market Hemorrhage

The Lyxor Hedge Fund Index was down -1.4% in September.  3 out of 11 Lyxor Indices ended the month in positive territory. The Lyxor CTA Long Term Index (+4.0%), the Lyxor CTA ShortTerm Index (+2.3%), and the Lyxor L/S Equity Market Neutral Index (+0.4%) were the best performers.

In contrast with the sell-off by last fall, the current recovery process is proving more laborious. Continued soft macro releases, several micro turbulences (VW, GLEN, the US Healthcare) and signs that the Fed might be more concerned about global growth, drove markets to re-test the end-of-August lows. L/S Equity Long bias funds and Event Driven funds were yet again the main victims. Conversely, CTAs, Global Macro and L/S Equity funds with lower or variable bias, successfully navigated these challenging times.

“Quantitative easing combined with tighter regulation is growingly questioned. The former is boosting re-leveraging, the latter is trapping liquidity within banks. Both are increasing market risks. With few obvious growth gears in sight, we expect moderate and riskier asset returns.” says Jean-Baptiste Berthon, senior cross asset strategist at Lyxor AM.

Pressure remained on the L/S Equity Long bias funds. They continued to underperform, with broad markets bleeding back to the end-of-August lows. Their drawback accelerated by month-end on the healthcare sector’s debacle. They held their largest allocation in the non-cyclical consumers sectors (which includes healthcare stocks). The H. Clinton’s tweet, tackling drug prices hikes at one specialty-drug company, resulted in a sudden re-assessment of the whole sector’s revenues and M&A prospects. Indeed, these drug pricing anomalies reflect a broader transformation of the healthcare space since 2014. Since then, waves of Biotech and Generic companies’ acquisitions granted Pharma with much greater pricing power. The current correction might be bringing back M&A premiums and fundamental forecasts to a more sustainable profitability regime.

In contrast, Variable bias funds continued to successfully navigate a challenging space, in Europe especially. They finished the month only slightly down. They adequately not re-weighted yet their net exposure. Instead they actively traded around positions.

Market Neutral funds managed to weather the mid-month Fed sector repositioning. They also benefitted from wider quantitative factors differentiation, with Momentum outperforming Value. The short-term backdrop for the strategy remains riskier, less likely to profit from a potential rebound, and threatened by higher rotation risk, in the healthcare sector in particular.

Event Driven funds were again and by far, the main losers. Bargain hunting in the most beaten down securities allowed Event Driven to start the month on the right foot. However the valuation recovery didn’t last, caught up by the post-FOMC uncertainty. The losses accelerated in the last two weeks. In tandem with L/S Equity funds, they got hit by the healthcare meltdown. Strongly allocated through Merger arbitrage and special situation, the sector severely hit the whole Event Driven space. Valleant, Baxter, Allegan, Perrigo were amongst the largest return detractors.

L/S Credit Arbitrage funds’ returns were in line with the global index. The perception of risk remained elevated, factored in widening HY spreads, in the US especially. Lyxor L/S Credit funds remained reasonably conservative. There was volatility in cross credit Fixed-income arbitrage ahead of the Fed FOMC: this sub-strategy slightly underperformed.

CTAs, stars of the month. After being initially hit on their short energy exposures, CTAs then hoarded gains from their long bond exposures. With limited or negative exposures to equities, they dodged most of the market turmoil. They recorded small losses in FX and agricultural.

The sell-off since the end of August combined fundamental and technical drivers. CTAs’ involvement in the debacle was recently debated. Lyxor observes that Long term models cut their equity allocation to a conservative net exposure of 25% before the sell-off. During the sell-off, they further cut their equity exposure to around 5-10%: not a key factor in the selling pressure. During the sell-off, most Short term models further cut their about-zero net exposure down to -25%. The ST models move was more aggressive. But they manage a tiny portion of total CTAs’ AuM (less than 15% of the around $300bn CTAs’ total assets). The firm therefore see little evidence that CTAs were a substantial culprit for the equity sell-off.

By focusing on FX and rates, Global Macro dodged most of the September equity volatility. With limited exposure to commodities and shrinking allocation to equities (from 15 to less than 10% in net exposure), Global Macro dodged most of the September volatility. The bulk of their directional exposure was in the FX space. Their long in USD vs. EUR, GBP and CAD, produced marginally positive returns. Their market timing on rates added gains. They rapidly rotated their bond exposures back to the US, as it became probable that the Fed’s normalization process would be postponed.

Schroders Wins Best International Fund Group Award

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Schroders was awarded the coveted ‘Best International Fund Group’ award at The Incisive Media International Fund & Product Awards 2015 held in London on October 7th. The award recognises Schroders for the excellence of its digital strategy and strength of its product proposition, as well as outstanding fund performance over three years.

In a highly competitive category, Schroders scooped first place above other well-known players in international asset management, which included the likes of GAM, BlackRock, Fidelity and more.

Additionally, Schroders’ Chief Executive, Michael Dobson, has been awarded the 2015 ‘Financial News Decade of Excellence’award, which recognises his leadership in the strong growth of Schroders’ profits and assets under management since 2001.

Of the award, Carla Bergareche, Head at Schroders Spain and Portugal commented “We have a strong local distribution presence around the globe and in all the major global financial centres, stretching back over 50 years. Through this we have nurtured long-standing relationships with our clients, maintaining an open dialogue based on professionalism and trust.” Adding that “We believe that digital is a key area of development to enhance our approach to servicing, engaging and communicating with our clients. We have put this into effect via the recent launch of the Schroders incomeIQ initiative, a knowledge centre which features investment guides and tools. People can also take the incomeIQ test designed to reveal investors’ behavioural biases and provide useful tips to empower advisers and investors in their decision making. We are pleased to have won the awards in recognition of our drive for excellence in delivering added value to our clients and wider society. We will continue to innovate across all aspects of our business to help meet the needs of our clients.”

You can review the list of winners and Finalist in the following link

Henderson Global Investors to Expand Global Property Equities Team

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Henderson Global Investors to Expand Global Property Equities Team
Bob Thomas - Foto cedida. Henderson Global Investors amplía su equipo de renta variable inmobiliaria global

Following an announcement made to clients in May this year, Henderson Global Investors has further expanded its global property equities team with the addition of a dedicated North American property equities team.

Bob Thomas was appointed head of North American property equities, joining the global asset manager in August. Bob is based in Henderson’s Chicago office. His previous role was co-head of North American listed real estate at AMP Capital. Bob brings over 13 years’ experience in real estate securities, having previously worked for BNP Paribas Asset Management and Nuveen Asset Management.

Greg Kuhl has also joined the team in Chicago as portfolio manager and will work with Bob to build out the offering. He joins from Brookfield Investment Management where he worked on North American and global long only and long-short real estate funds. Finally, this month, Mike Engels joined as an analyst. He previously worked at Brookfield Investment Management.

Bob, Greg and Mike, will work with existing global fund managers, Guy Barnard and Tim Gibson, to manage the team’s existing global mandates. This transition will take place on the 1 November. As a result of this decision, management of the North American sleeves of Henderson’s global property equities funds will be brought in-house. Since 2007, Harrison Street Securities, the US-based real estate investment firm, was mandated to manage this part of the portfolio.

Graham Kitchen, head of equities at Henderson, comments: “As a truly global business, and with recent acquisitions in the US developing our in-house equity expertise, it is a logical step to bring the management of North American property equities in-house. Not only do we believe this best serves clients in the existing global funds, but it also enables us to further develop the franchise and product offering in the future.”

Guy Barnard, co-head of global property equities based in London, says: “We’ve worked with Harrison Street for eight years and thank them for the service they have provided. Looking ahead, a strengthened property securities team, with dedicated portfolio managers in all of our key regions, will enable us to pursue a more integrated global investment process that will best serve our clients’ needs. The integration process has been carefully managed over a number of months, meaning we expect a seamless transition next month.

The build-out of the global property equities team reflects Henderson’s drive to provide quality products with consistent superior performance to our clients across the world.”

Tim Gibson, co-head of global property equities based in Singapore, adds: “Hiring quality people to help develop our global offering is intrinsic to our success, and we are happy to be in a position to attract high caliber managers such as Bob and Greg. They both have strong reputations, excellent track records and high conviction, bottom-up driven investment processes that are aligned to our own. ”

 

Pioneer Investments: “We Must Open up The Range of Opportunities and Ideas in order to Generate Alpha”

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“Hay que abrir el abanico de oportunidades e ideas con el fin de generar alfa"
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrAdam Mac Nulty, Client Portfolio Manager for Multi-Asset Solutions at Pioneer Investments. Pioneer Investments: “We Must Open up The Range of Opportunities and Ideas in order to Generate Alpha”

Volatility has returned to the markets and investors are realizing that, in this environment of uncertainty, there is a possibility of losing money in assets traditionally regarded as safe, such as fixed income. In fact, some debt and equity markets seem to be overvalued and doubts about their behavior are becoming more pressing. “Investors want more stable returns but do not want to experience losses or take risk, and in this regard, absolute return solutions are a good choice. These strategies really do have a place in portfolios,” says Adam Mac Nulty, Client Portfolio Manager for Multi-Asset Solutions at Pioneer Investments, during an interview with Funds Society.

The expert, who recently participated in the Pioneer Forum in Miami, reveals the virtues of a range of the management company’s multi-asset solutions, encompassing multi-asset products with direct investment, even in income mode, funds of funds, tailored solutions, and absolute return multi-asset strategies. The latter, which they have been managing since 2004, have aroused great appetite amongst investors, especially during the last 18 months, due to market conditions.

But not just any absolute return strategy will do. Mac Nulty explains that diversification is the key: being aware of what is in the portfolio; giving beta an increasingly less important role; and placing greater emphasis on alpha generation. “We should not depend on beta because perceptions often do not correspond to reality,” he says.

Alpha generation can be arrived at, for example, by investing in long-short, or relative value strategies: “In traditional strategies alpha is usually only generated on the long side, but it’s different with portfolios that are less restrictive. It’s important to increase the range of investment opportunities and ideas; adopt relative value positions; invest in multiple uncorrelated strategies thus ensuring robust diversification,” he says. All with the intention of reducing the volatility of fixed income and equity markets.

And he admits that the fact of having an absolute return perspective is easier with a multi-asset portfolio than with a single asset: “The fact of not being limited to an asset offers more opportunities.”

In their strategies, they invest in liquid assets, including fixed income, equities, real estate, convertible bonds, derivative strategies, commodities…

 

Managing Absolute Return Portfolios since 2004

Since they started managing absolute return portfolios in 2004, the markets have changed greatly. “Many extreme events have happened, such as the 2008 crisis and periods of volatility, from which we have learned and which have helped us to improve the management of our portfolios,” explains Mac Nulty.

For example, in recent years they have introduced more diversification in portfolios (previously they had around 45 strategies, and now there’s around one hundred); more relative value strategies; they are constantly seeking to combine multiple, low correlated strategies into the portfolio; and they have introduced several layers of risk management to help protect the portfolio from the permanent impairment of capital including hedges against possible extreme events in the form of put options, or positions in Gold as a hedge to their macro base case. “We learned a lot from past experiences. It’s also very important to stress test the portfolios regularly to discover how they would behave under different scenarios. Because the next crisis will be different, and we want to be prepared,” he says.

Proof of this is the behavior of the portfolio during last August. After the rally in the first quarter of the year, the managers decided to adopt a more cautious stance. “We believed that the market was too complacent and that valuations were not attractive.” Therefore, they reduced risk, by cutting their equity and FX exposures, and reducing duration from 4 years to 2 years. Their positioning paid off during the summer−especially in the slumps in August− as the team benefited from the low risk of their portfolio.

“We’re not market timers but we’re very good at managing risk. In summer we had very little market exposure, and moderate levels of duration when the sell-off occurred; we were well positioned and the portfolio lost only a small bit of ground,” he explains. After the falls, they assumed a bit more risk in portfolios, although they are still at low levels, and believe that, as yet, there are still no good market entry points. “We believe that volatility is making its way back, which will increase the correlation between asset classes,” advises the expert. “But we are always on the lookout for interesting opportunities and would look to add risk exposure should we experience any further sell offs”.

The Strategies

Among the company’s multi-asset absolute return strategies, the most noteworthy are two funds which are both managed flexibly and domiciled in Luxembourg: the first, “Multi-Strategy”, is a multi-strategy, absolute return fund launched in 2008, flexible and of long-biased duration, it targets a return above liquidity of between 3.5% and 4.5%;  and the second, “Multi-Strategy Growth”, is a somewhat more aggressive version which aims to beat the cash at between 5% and 6%. “We intend to provide stable returns by focusing on risk, without relying on the beta, and with relative value strategies playing a key role,” he explains.

In general, Pioneer’s multi-asset strategies (both funds of funds and direct investment or absolute return focused multi-assets) are based on four pillars of management. The first is the macro, in which managers obtain a main scenario which leads them to favor some assets over others and some regions over others (for example, it can lead them to be positive with Europe or the US dollar but avoid investing in emerging markets, except for in some of them, such as India). The second pillar is macro hedging: a group of hedging specialists, critical of the risk taken in macro strategy, is dedicated to analyzing those risks, their probability, and their potential impact on the portfolios. For example, now they consider that there are risks of a hard landing in China, a bubble in their markets, the possibility that the rate hikes in the US occur too quickly, or too slowly, that there is deflation in Europe … and they analyze the impact on the portfolios. “If they believe that the odds are high, they use hedges,” explains the expert, and such hedgingcan be easily implemented, with gold, for example, or more complex, with derivatives and swaps.

The third pillar is based on relative value satellite strategies, favoring an asset, country, sector, or currency over others … For example, in emerging markets they favor countries that have made reforms, such as India, over those which are debt ridden, and are committed to long positions in this Asian country as opposed to short positions in currencies of countries like Hungary or Brazil. The idea is that these strategies are not correlated with each other or with the macro vision. And the fourth pillar is that of selection, which tries not to replicate the macro vision, and which is a key aspect in funds of funds strategies, but not as much for those of absolute return. In fact, these pillars have different weights depending on whether the multi-asset portfolios are funds of funds, direct investments, or absolute return.

Currently, the management company has 2 billion Euros in multi-asset absolute return strategies, but feels very comfortable, however, and believes they can grow further. “We could manage 20 billion,” says the expert.