Photo: Sarath Kuchi
. Houston and Washington DC: The Best Cities in the US to Get Rich
Not in every city you can build a fortune. Even if the biggest cities in the US are the most attractive for those willing to do it, you should analyze a series of criteria in order to choose the right one. Houston, Washington DC, Cleveland, Detroit, and New York are the best 5 cities in the country to build a fortune, according to Bankrate. Dallas-Fort Worth, Baltimore, Miami, Minneapolis-St. Paul and Chicago, complete the Top 10.
In order to rank the 18 largest metro areas in the country, Bankrate analyzed after-tax savable income, the job market, human capital (indicating available educational opportunities for career advancement), access to financial services, participation in retirement savings plans, and the local housing market in each city.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Scott Beale. Henderson: “Companies That Are Reliant Solely on A Cyclical Upturn to Grow Their Revenues Present an Elevated Level of Risk”
Ian Warmerdam and Ronan Kelleher, Managers of the Henderson Global Growth Strategy, believe that concentrating on secular growth in 2016, particularly within innovative themes, while maintaining a strict valuation discipline, is a prudent approach to generating attractive long-term returns.
What lessons have you learned from 2015?
2015 has again felt like a year of mediocre global economic growth, broadly speaking, and we believe that companies that are reliant solely on a cyclical upturn to grow their revenues present an elevated level of risk. This year has reinforced our belief that concentrating on truly secular growth, while maintaining a strict valuation discipline, is a prudent approach to generating attractive long-term returns.
Are you more or less positive than you were this time last year, and why?
We claim no ability to predict the short-term direction of the markets so our strategy remains unchanged. We continue to operate with our five-year investment horizon at a stock level and have confidence that our philosophy and process will continue to deliver strong absolute and relative returns over this longer-term timeframe.
What are the key themes likely to shape your asset class going forward and how are you likely to position your portfolios as a result?
Our strategy remains to avoid making major macroeconomic calls, and to instead focus on using our bottom-up approach to find companies that are benefitting from underappreciated secular growth and high barriers to entry, at attractive valuations. As we look into 2016, we continue to see compelling investment opportunities within our five existing themes: Healthcare Innovation, Internet Transformation, Emerging Markets Growth, Paperless Payment and Energy Efficiency.
Within Healthcare Innovation, for example, we are attracted by the demographic changes at play as an ageing global population struggles to contain ever rising healthcare costs. Increases in life expectancy mean that the global 60+ age group is expected to double by 2050 to two billion people. CVS Health, the US pharmacy chain, provides an integrated healthcare service for its customers and looks set to benefit from these demographic shifts.
Rightmove is a leading online UK property listings company that sits within our Internet Transformation theme and should continue to benefit from the structural shift in advertising spend from offline to online. Within Energy Efficiency investments include companies that increase vehicle efficiency such as Continental, a Germany-based automotive supplier, Valeo, a multi-national automotive supplier based in France, along with Delphi, a US auto component manufacturer.
Despite a general consensus in the financial advice community that saving for retirement should trump paying for a child’s college education, nearly half of Americans disagree. According to a recent poll from RBC Wealth Management-U.S. conducted by Ipsos, 49 percent of Americans place greater importance on helping their children pay for their education than they do on saving for their own retirement.
“As the cost of a college education in the U.S. continues to rise, parents will naturally want to help their kids get through school without accumulating a mountain of debt,” said John Taft, CEO of RBC Wealth Management in the U.S. “But with the gap between how much Americans have saved and what they will need to retire comfortably widening, we advise that people make funding their own retirement a priority. There are no grants, scholarships, or federally guaranteed loans to support them when they leave the workforce.”
Millennials (ages 18 to 34) are the most likely to prioritize financing their children’s education ahead of their own retirement. In fact, 60 percent of Americans in that age group said saving for their kids’ education was more important to them, compared with 43 percent of GenXers (ages 35 to 54) and only 28 percent of Baby Boomers (ages 55 and older).
“These results likely also reflect both philosophical and practical differences between generations,” said Malia Haskins of the Wealth Strategies Group at RBC Wealth Management-U.S. “For Millennials, retirement is much farther away than the more immediate challenge of putting kids through college, so it makes sense that they would put retirement on the back burner. Baby Boomers tend to believe that children should be self-motivated and should have some skin in the game when paying for college. GenXers, meanwhile, are somewhere in the middle. They want to pay for most if not all of college costs for their children, but they also may be nearing retirement and wanting to balance the two goals.”
While saving for retirement should be the priority, by planning and setting realistic goals it is possible for many families to meet both objectives, Haskins says. Planning is especially critical for families with lower household incomes. According to the RBC Wealth Management survey, Americans with household incomes under $50,000 were the most likely (57 percent) to place saving for a child’s education ahead of their own retirement needs.
“Sometimes families find they can fund their retirement and still contribute to a child’s education,” Haskins said. “By looking ahead a little bit, it’s easier to get an overall sense of whether their goals are realistic.”
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of RBC from October 6 to October 9, 2015. For the survey, a sample of n=2009 Americans was interviewed online via Ipsos’s American online panel, of which 569 are parents with children in the household. The precision of Ipsos online surveys is measured using a Bayesian credibility interval. In this case, with a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 4.7 percentage points percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had all American parents been polled.
Research from global analytics firm Cerulli Associates finds that exchange-traded fund (ETF) assets in the United States will grow to more than $6 trillion by 2020, and this number can potentially increase if more asset managers enter the space. Cerulli believes the slow erosion of mutual fund assets by exchange-traded products will prompt a growing number of asset managers to enter the ETF market.
“While many sponsor firms believe the ETF market will continue to grow organically, growth will largely be a result of more investors using the low-cost vehicle,” explains Jennifer Muzerall, senior analyst at Cerulli. “As new investor segments continue to acclimate to ETFs in their portfolios and sponsors develop new products, ETF assets are expected to climb as the industry enters its second decade.”
Cerulli’s report, Exchange-Traded Fund Markets 2015: Opportunities in the Face of Changing Dynamics, analyzes asset managers that manufacture and distribute ETFs in the U.S. The report focuses on the distribution and trends in the ETF market, including active ETFs and strategic beta ETFs, institutional distribution, marketing, and staffing.
“With more asset managers developing an ETF strategy, product proliferation will continue to increase, and firms will need to think strategically about the types of products they develop, attempting to fill any white space that remains untouched,” Muzerall explains. “As investor sentiment is evolving toward solutions-oriented outcomes, sponsors need to think of ETFs no longer solely as a product, but as a tool for investors to achieve their investment objectives.”
Aegon Asset Management created the role of Director of U.S. Consultant Relations, in the middle of December. Fulfilling the new position is Ainsley Borel, who is responsible for distribution of the institutional investment strategies and services offered by Aegon Asset Management’s U.S. member companies to insurers, pension plans, and other benefit plans.
Aegon Asset Management is the global, active investment management arm of Aegon N.V., with centers of investment expertise in Europe and the United States and distribution across the Americas, Europe and Asia. The Aegon Asset Management U.S. member companies include Aegon USA Investment Management, LLC, a SEC-registered investment adviser and manager of fixed income and asset-allocation investment strategies, and Aegon USA Realty Associates, LLC, a real estate asset manager.
“Building strong relationships with institutional consultants is an important element of Aegon Asset Management’s growth strategy in the United States,” said Tom Neukranz, Head of Distribution for Aegon Asset Management U.S. “We are very pleased to have a veteran of Ainsley’s caliber and experience join us in expanding and enhancing relations with the consultant community.”
During 22 years in the investment industry, Borel has managed the distribution of both off-the-shelf investment products and customized investment solutions. Most recently, Borel was a senior vice president and senior consultant relationship manager at Northern Trust Asset Management, responsible for relationships with major domestic and global investment consulting firms.
“Aegon Asset Management U.S. offers what consultants and their clients are looking for in a quality asset manager – a well-defined investment process, strong product line, and experienced investment teams,” said Borel. “I am eager to begin sharing the Aegon Asset Management story with them.”
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrStephen Acheson, director ejecutivo en Standard Life Investments. Foto cedida. Aumenta el apetito por el riesgo entre las aseguradoras europeas
According to a survey conducted by Standard Life Investments, European insurers feel they are unlikely to be able to generate sufficient future returns to meet guaranteed rates for all their policyholders, and that regulatory modernisation and change may make it more challenging for traditional business models to strengthen income streams and make necessary strategic asset allocation changes.
The survey identified five key themes:
Increasingly, European insurers may no longer be able to generate sufficient future returns to meet guaranteed rates to policyholders.
The expected future annual return (based on existing investment strategies) of 2.4% is below the 2.7% respondents need to meet future policyholder requirements (based on current guarantee levels).
In response, many European insurers are considering undertaking significant strategic (SAA) and tactical asset allocation (TAA) changes to improve yield.
Risk appetite appears to be rising. Half of insurers expect to reduce sovereign fixed income exposure, while over 60% expect to increase allocations to real estate and/or alternatives.
However, the survey highlights a ‘north/south’ divide on asset allocation, with Southern European countries having more confidence in existing investment strategies due in part to higher domestic yields on their sovereign fixed income.
Insurers’ investment freedom is affected by Solvency II.
73% of insurers indicated that the forthcoming EU Directive is affecting the way they design investment portfolios as the taking of asset risk now requires appropriate risk-capital and a fuller understanding of the risks being taken.
Outsourcing asset management activity is increasingly attractive, but there are concerns about fund management capacity and the number of asset managers able to meet complex insurer requirements.
44% of European insurers are looking to outsource management of one or more asset classes.
Insurer business models and profitability are under pressure from a structural shift away from guaranteed savings to unit-linked structures.
43% of insurers stated they were unable to price new guaranteed investment products at competitive rates.
When the survey was conducted over the summer, European insurers felt they had further work to do before they would be completely ready for Solvency II. As evidenced by the many internal model approvals that have been announced recently, very good progress has been made in the interim. 56 interviews were carried out with senior insurance investment executives representing over €2.4trn, or around 30%, of pan-European insurance assets under management.
Stephen Acheson, Executive Director, Standard Life Investments said: “European insurers’ business strategies and traditional business models are being fundamentally challenged due to the combination of the long-term low return environment, Solvency II and the ongoing need to deliver on promised guarantees. The survey highlighted a clear theme of insurers looking to outsource to the external asset management industry. However, it also highlights a belief among insurers that the number of credible outsourcing partners is declining. It is important to remember that Solvency II was conceived and developed in a very different economic environment. Since our survey completed, fundamental questions about the design and performance of the Solvency II balance sheet in the current low interest rate environment have begun to be raised. For example, in the UK the PRA has recently pointed out that, as a consequence of low interest rates, the risk margin is leading to higher capital requirements and volatility. So the Solvency II development and implementation issues that the European industry has been working on over recent years will certainly not end on 1 January 2016.”
Standard Life Investments has 69 insurance clients investing balance sheet assets in over 20 countries, representing an AUM of £137bn as of the second quarter of 2015.
Looking at emerging market equities, there is reason to believe the tide is about to turn for the better. It is, however, likely to be a divergent and volatile process but 2016 should be a good opportunity to selectively start to build up exposure to emerging markets again, especially as the downside risks have fallen.
There are four main reasons behind our careful optimism.
First, emerging markets have not wasted the crisis. Most major emerging markets’ currencies have adjusted more than the EUR, which has dropped 20% against the USD over the past five years. Similarly, the current account adjustment has been significant and especially important in economies like Turkey, Poland and India that use to run large deficits.
Second, emerging markets offer the best value, growth and yield combination. There is a big spread in absolute and relative valuations across the emerging universe, but most emerging markets are expected to trade lower than their respective five-year valuation average in 2016 with emerging markets at a 15% compared to 5% for developed markets. Emerging markets are not only cheaper in absolute and relative terms than developed markets, they are also expected to have higher earnings growth and dividend yields.
Third, the EM/DM growth ratio will re-accelerate. The relative growth ratio between emerging and developed markets seems to be correlated with the relative stock market performance. IMF expects emerging markets’ growth to gradually accelerate from 4% this year to 5.3% in 2020 while developed markets’ growth will stay flat around 2% over the same period. This means that the DM/EM growth ratio, which has fallen during the past five years, is set to start a five-year re-acceleration in 2016.
Finally, US rate hikes tend to be supportive for emerging market equities. Perhaps contrary to popular perception, emerging market assets tend to outperform the year after a US rate hike. The reasons are very basic but nevertheless fundamental; economies adjust and markets discount the rate move ahead of time, and the reason for hikes – that the US economy is doing rather well – is supportive for emerging economies.
According to Michael Hasenstab, Chief Investment Officer at Templeton Global Macro, “at the start of 2016, we are encouraged by the vast set of fundamentally attractive valuations across the global bond and currency markets. We expect continued depreciation of the euro and yen, rising US Treasury yields, and currency appreciation in select emerging markets.”
During the next year, the investment professional expects a dichotomy of Monetary Policies, with rising interest rates from the US Federal Reserve and Quantitative Easing from the BOJ and ECB. Hasenstab also mentions that “fears of global deflation are unwarranted” and that him and his team “do not anticipate a global recession.” Their growth projections for 2016 are 2%–3% for the United States, above 1% for the eurozone, around 1% for Japan and between 6% and 7% for China. In regards to the Asian giant, Hasenstab believes that newer sectors such as the service one, will fuel wage growth and help support consumption.
Looking at Emerging markets, the Franklin Templeton expert believes that Solvency will not be a mayor issue in the area. “Emerging markets were often regarded as being in near-crisis condition during the second half of 2015. We believe concerns of a systemic crisis have been exaggerated” says Hasenstab, adding that commodity exporters, and emerging markets with poor macro fundamentals, remain vulnerable. Therefore, “investors should not view the emerging-markets asset class as a whole but should instead selectively distinguish between individual economies.” Hasenstab highlights Mexico and Malaysia as countries with strong fundamentals and solid domestic sources of financing, which will allow them to raise interest rates either in conjunction with US interest-rate hikes or shortly thereafter, while countries like Turkey or South Africa will most likely be negatively impacted by US interest-rate hikes.
Still, he believes that “an unconstrained global strategy is the most effective way to position for a rising-rate environment because it provides access to the full global opportunity set.” For 2016 he remains optimist, “we are encouraged by the vast set of fundamentally attractive valuations across the global bond and currency markets.” And favors currencies “in countries where inflation is picking up and growth remains healthy, yet the local currency remains fundamentally undervalued. Looking ahead, we expect continued depreciation of the euro and yen, rising US Treasury yields, and currency appreciation in select emerging markets,” he concludes.
The value of European private equity deals through 2015 has hit its highest level since 2007, according to data published by the Centre for Management Buyout Research.
So far the total value of all deals stands at €80.9bn, the highest yearly total since 2007, when the value hit €172.9bn. This is also the fourth highest year recorded by CMBOR, behind 2007, 2006 and 2005 respectively.
Currently, the total exit value in Europe is estimated at €153.2bn, which is a new record according to the methodology; IPOs and trade sales set records at €48.7bn and €63.8bn respectively.
CMBOR’s latest annual report suggests there were many bigger deals helping to drive the private equity market on this past year. Some 19 deals worth more than €1bn were recorded, against 13 the previous year. These bigger deals account for about half the total value of the European buyout market. Such deals were also geographically spread “with Switzerland (1), Denmark (1), France (3), Germany (4), Sweden (1), Austria (1), Spain (1) and the UK (7) all seeing deals of €1bn and over during the course of the year.”
“The spread of large deals across Europe, suggests a resurgence in the private equity market across the continent. For instance, Belgium has had a particularly strong year with total value of deals at €3.2bn, just below the 2007 record value, while Denmark has had its strongest year since 2006 (€4.8bn). Switzerland and Austria also had impressive years with the total value of deals in 2015 standing at €3.7bn and €2.6bn respectively, which in both cases are record values,” CMBR said.
And while the UK retains its position as the strongest European deal market, with value totalling €26.8bn, France has seen a rebound putting it on par with Germany.
Other findings in the data point to strong deal flows in manufacturing and retail, but less so in technology, media and telecommunication. The value of deals in the support services sector remained fairly constant, at around €9bn compared to €9.3bn in 2014.
Christian Marriott, Investor Relations partner at Equistone Partners Europe Limited, which sponsored CMBOR’s research, said: “2015 has been a very strong year for European private equity deal activity, with the UK still leading the way. However, all the core European markets have performed well, which reflects the trend of a consistent increase in total European buyout value of about €10bn since 2013. Boosted by the Verallia buyout, France has been strong in 2015 and made up previously lost ground on Germany, which in recent years has firmly established itself as Europe’s second biggest deal market behind the UK.”
“The European private equity exit market also had an outstanding 2015, achieving a record total value. While volatility in European markets stifled the IPO activity in the previous two quarters, a flurry of big IPOs at the end year, including Worldpay and Scout24, helped the boost the value to a record number. However, it has not all been about IPOs, as there have been more exits via trade sales than flotations amongst the year’s top 10 largest deals.”
“2015 clearly shows that big deals are back, as shown by the highest average deal value and number of billion plus deals since 2007. With the final quarter proving strong for both deals and exits, the European private equity market will start 2016 with positive momentum.”
Photo: AndyCastro, Flickr, Creative Commons. Monaco and China Pressure the US to Apply FATCA
On December 15 and 16, Monaco and China signed the multilateral OECD MAP agreement on automatic exchange of information, therefore, raising the number of jurisdictions that will automatically exchange information to 77.
Both countries will exchange information in 2018 about data of 2017.
According to the law firm Broseta, “the signing of the Multilateral MAP by a country such as China will probably increase the pressure on the US to bilaterally apply FATCA and, therefore, to exchange automatic information with countries with which the US has FATCA agreements”.
