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Have Investors Lost Their Nerves?

According to Marion Le Morhedec and Jonathan Baltora, managers of the AXA WF Global Inflation Bonds fund at AXA Investment Managers, central banks’ loss of credibility has been one of the major investment themes since the start of 2016. One of the main indicators has been the fall in inflation breakevens reflecting investor fears that we may be entering a deflation spiral that central banks would be unable to stop. However, the fall in oil prices has massively influenced inflation expectations and drawing the conclusion that central banks have lost credibility because of this is overblown.

“The oil price impact on inflation is significant. We estimate that 80% of inflation volatility may be explained by oil. However, food and oil price fluctuations only have a short-term impact on inflation. Assuming stable oil prices, headline inflation rates will gradually increase towards core inflation rates in the later part of the year.” Scenario the managers consider encouraging for the inflation linked bond market “as inflation expectations have become very sensitive to short term inflation developments. We now expect these to better reflect core inflation dynamics.”

They highlight that the US 10-year inflation breakeven, which is a measure of the average annual inflation over the next decade, is trading 0.7% below the current rate of core inflation. “We believe that this is excessively pessimistic. Since the Lehman fallout, this situation has been seen only twice and resulted in a sharp increase of inflation breakevens. The first time was in the exact aftermath of the Lehman failure and the second time in the darkest hours of the euro area crisis. Those two situations were followed by a strong rise in inflation expectations over the subsequent six months. Interestingly, the current situation in the inflation market is the exact opposite of what happened in 2012. In 2012, markets were pricing higher future inflation than current inflation, suggesting that central banks had lost control, facing the risk of high inflation. On this basis, we have added inflation-sensitive positions to our portfolios especially in the US Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS) market where we see the greatest opportunities over the coming months based on the simple observation that inflation linked bonds do not really forecast inflation, but are instead attracted to the current core inflation rate. We do not sit in the camp of those thinking that central banks have lost control, but instead believe that a volatile start to 2016 may have led some investors to lose their nerve…”, they conclude.

Gravitational Pull of Big Brands: Latest Research on Asset Management Brands in Europe

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Macroeconomic uncertainty and unsettled markets drove European investors to choose the fund houses they knew and trusted. The latest Fund Brand 50 analysis of cross-border third-party brands shows no change to the top six groups but the gap between the brand leader, BlackRock, and its nearest rivals is widening. According to research group Fund Buyer Focus, BlackRock outscored its competitors on most of the brand attribute measures evaluated by fund selectors.

The independent study measures asset managers’ relative brand attractiveness across ten brand drivers to provide cross-border, local market and distribution channel rankings. Findings from the study include the increasing role of brand in the fund selection process and the recent migration of buyers to the bigger fund houses. Commenting on this, Diana Mackay, director of Fund Buyer Focus says: “When investor confidence is low, brand naturally becomes more important in the fund-buying process with investors seeking the comfort and perceived stability of larger, familiar names. The ‘safe houses’, and particularly the brand leader, benefited from this trend in extremely choppy markets. The power of brand was also evident in the stickiness of some groups’ positions even though their flagship products were out of favor.”

Outside the top ten rankings, pricing pressures and regulatory changes fueled support for passive providers. iShares and Vanguard had the biggest impact on the cross-border rankings. But it was Vanguard that was the fastest riser – improving its FB50 ranking by 13 places over the year.

Four new groups gained sufficient recognition to enter the top 50 with highest new entrant, last year’s boutique winner Flossbach von Storch, extending its brand reach into new markets and gaining 32nd place. Meanwhile, the US group, T. Rowe Price saw its investment in developing its retail presence realized by increased recognition in multiple markets and 46th position.

But it was not just about the brand giants. At the other end of the asset management scale, boutiques had another good year. The Nordic boutique Lannebo Fonder moved up two places to take the boutique brand crown. Lannebo Fonder’s success reflected a trend in this year’s rankings of investor appetite for generating yield from investing in local specialists.

“Interest in specialist alpha-generating managers remained strong, helping to put new and more established niche managers in the spotlight. But even for these small groups, fund selectors placed great emphasis on the importance of corporate consistency, ranking the stability of the investment management team as the most influential brand driver,” explains Diana Mackay.

Top 10 cross-border groups ranked by Total Brand Score

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About the research

The Fund Brand 50 (FB50) report is sponsored by Broadridge and FERI EuroRating Services. The Fund Buyer Focus FB50 report is an annual study monitoring the influence of brand on third-party fund selection. The study is based on intensive interviews with nearly 1,000 of Europe’s most significant fund selectors in ten key markets. These selectors account for EUR 2.2 trn of third-party assets.

Fund selectors are asked to name their top three suppliers on the basis of ten brand drivers including: appealing investment strategy, client orientation, innovation and solidity. Answers to these and other preference questions are scored using an algorithmic process that produces a ‘Total Brand Score’, on which groups are ranked.

The research is conducted by Fund Buyer Focus, the Berlin-based subsidiary of MackayWilliams LLP (London).

AZ Quest: “We Believe Now Is The Perfect Time To Invest In Brazil”

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Santiago, Chile, will this week receive a visit from Walter Maciel, CEO at AZ Quest, an independent asset management boutique of Brazilian origin which, since April 2015, belongs to the Azimut group. The reason for this visit is simply to explain to Chilean investors why it may now be a good time to re-invest in Brazil. In a road show organized by AZ Andes, Azimut’s Chilean subsidiary, which was established in Santiago in August 2015, Walter Maciel will discuss the long-term opportunities offered by Brazil. In his interview with Funds Society, he reveals some of the keys factors to understanding why now is the right time to invest in Latin America’s largest economy, despite the country’s current economic crisis.

It has been almost one year since Azimut purchased a controlling stake in Quest Investimentos, how has the firm changed? Which products are now offered that were not offered before?

Now at AZ Quest Investimentos, we remain fully independent. Azimut wanted to acquire our expertise in the Brazil and, being an independent asset manager as well, understands the importance of us conducting business as usual, preserving our investment process and retaining our team of professionals, and agreed to preserve that independence as per the contract we signed.

The deal increased our fire power to bring more management capacity, offering other professionals the same conditions pertaining to our deal. Last November we brought Credit Suisse Brazil’s former Credit Head Portfolio Manager and team. In three months we have added a new family of very conservative high grade credit funds and raised close to BRL 500 million.

Your largest funds by asset under management (according to the data available on your website), are the AZ Quest Acoes FIC FIA, the AZ Quest Total Return, and the AZ Quest Yield, would you please explain why have there been more successful than the other ones? Is there any other particular fund that has significantly increased its assets under value?

The credit funds as per the answer above. AZ Quest Acoes is the flagship fund of the long-only all cap family, that includes exclusive mandates for local Institutional Investors and holds around BRL 1 billion of AUM. AZ Quest Acoes has outperformed the Ibovespa Index every single year since inception in June 2005. In 10 years, the fund accumulates 467% net of all fees vs 67% of the Ibovespa.

Do you have any type of interaction with the other Azimut firms in Brasil, AZ Legan and AZ Futurainvest?

We are part of a single project, albeit independent. AZ Futura is now Azimut Brazil WM, a wealth management firm. AZWM is our own distribution arm, offering their individual clients an open platform and with profound knowledge of the Azimut funds (including AZ Quest funds). Our main job is to provide them with a diversified shelf of quality products and their main contribution is to concentrate in our funds and provide us AUM stability.

What is the purpose of this visit to Chile and AZ Andes? Do Chilean Investors have a particular interest for investing in Brazil or any of your funds?

Chilean investors have always had investments in Brazil. Unfortunately, in the last few years the bad economic policies, the greater intervention of state in the macro and sector levels have led Brazil to a major recession and lack of credibility, leading foreign investors, including Chilean, to divest and stay away. We believe this is the perfect time to invest in Brazil.

This past month the real has finally shown a slight recovery against the dollar, as politic turmoil keeps affecting Brazilian economy, are there any signs of improvement?

In the last four recessions in Brazil, since 1980, the investor that was able to enter the market at least three months prior to the inflection of the economy on quarter over quarter basis, made money every single time, in average USD + 60% in 12 months. We believe that inflection will occur by the end of the year.

Furthermore, we believe we are facing the end of both an economic cycle and a political cycle as well. The Brazilian society has changed profoundly. 25 years ago 65% of the people belonged to the informal economy and received transfers from the government. Today, 68% of the people are formalized, holding bank accounts and having access to credit. They pay taxes and demand return of those taxes, decent infra-structure and good public services.

The new cycle will be based on investments and on diminishing the size of the state. There will be a wave of concessions, privatizations, revision of benefits like the social security and no tolerance with corruption on the private or the public sector. We believe the Brazilian investment theme is a long term one.

CTA & Merger Hegde Funds Insulated From Rotations

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Los hedge funds aumentan su protección contra el riesgo de ‘Brexit’ — . CTA & Merger Hegde Funds Insulated From Rotations

The Lyxor Hedge Fund Index was down -0.9% in February. 3 out of 11 Lyxor Indices ended the month in positive territory. The Lyxor CTA Long Term Index (+2.2%), the Lyxor Merger Arbitrage Index (+0.5%), and the Lyxor LS Equity Long Bias Index (+0.4%) were the best performers.

“In a make-or-break environment, we recommend keeping some directionality through tactical styles. We would remain put on relative-value strategies, but focusing in areas least correlated to current themes.” says Jean-Baptiste Berthon, senior cross asset strategist at Lyxor AM.

Brexit risk helped Global Macro funds recoup some of the losses endured early February. It was a hill-start for the strategy, which suffered on their short bond and long European equities exposures (we note that positioning divergence among managers remained elevated). The collapse of the pound below $1.39 then allowed Global Macro funds to regain some of the lost ground. Indeed, London mayor Boris Johnson throwing support to the exit cause led markets to implement stronger protection against a risk of Brexit. The relative economic and monetary pulses between the UK and the US also played out. Funds remain slightly long in European equities. In bonds, they are long US and short EU bonds. Their top plays remain on their long dollar crosses.

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The rally by mid-February triggered multiple macro and sector rotations. The selling pressure exhausted by mid-month. The rally in risky assets unfolded in poor trading volumes as most market players were initially reluctant to join in. An unstable market tectonic and multiple downside fundamental risks kept investors – hedge funds included – on the cautious side. In that context, CTAs outperformed, hoarding returns in the early part of the month, while remaining resilient thereafter thanks to stubbornly low yields. Besides, the longest bias strategies enjoyed a V-shape recovery. By contrast, those exposed to the rotations suffered the most.

L/S Equity: volatile and dispersed returns, skepticism prevails. Long bias funds enjoyed a V-shape recovery over the month and ended up slightly positive. They continued to generate strong alpha. Variable bias funds pared losses on the way down thanks to their cautious stance, but they underperformed on the way up. The rotation out of defensive back into value stocks proved costly. Market Neutral funds were the worst performers. They were hit by multiple sector and quant factor rotations, amid high equity correlation, while keeping their leverage steady. They endured a double whammy through untimely portfolio shifts.

Overall Lyxor L/S Equity funds slightly raised their market beta mainly through short covering. But skepticism prevails as to the sustainability of the rally. Interestingly, a number of funds are increasingly tactical in their stock and sector positioning.

Merger Arbitrage continued to defy risk aversion. The performance of Special Situation funds mirrored that of broader markets. They suffered in the early part of the month – especially in their healthcare and telecom positions – before recouping most of their losses. The returns of Merger Arbitrage funds were less volatile. Deal spreads initially factored higher macro risks, before settling down. Short duration operations with small P&L to lock in continued to lure managers. They maintained their elevated long exposures, reflecting their confidence in the current merger opportunity set.

The underperformance of European credit hurt L/S Credit strategies. The pressure mounting on global banks, and in particular European institutions, hurt some funds. Underperforming junior debt in Europe, and concerns about coupons suspension in contingent convertibles took a dent in some funds (as a reminder, “cocos” convert into shares if a pre-set trigger is breached – the level of solvency ratios for example. These securities were designed to enhance capital levels and provide investors with greater safety). BoJ venturing into negative yield regime also hurt Japanese and Asian issues.

Perfect conditions for CTAs, which continued to outperform. Continued de-risking in the early part of the month was beneficial to most CTAs. They kept on making strong gains in their long bond positions, their equity and energy shorts. In the second part of the month, most of the gains were made in EU long bonds and on GBP. The recovery in risk appetite led their models to shave off their most aggressive bearish positions. They reduced their short on energy and brought their equity allocation up to neutral. Their main vulnerability lies with their long bond exposure.

Neuberger Berman Trust Company Names Richard Gardiner Chief Investment Officer

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Neuberger Berman has announced that Richard Gardiner has joined the firm and is appointed chief investment officer of Neuberger Berman Trust Company, an affiliate of Neuberger Berman. Mr. Gardiner will also lead the firm’s Investment Strategy Group and join the firm’s Asset Allocation Committee.

As part of his role within the $11.4 billion Neuberger Berman Trust Company, Mr. Gardiner will work along with Neuberger Berman’s wealth advisors and trust officers on high-net worth individual and foundation and endowment clients. With oversight of asset allocation, manager selection, and portfolio construction, Mr. Gardiner and the Investment Strategy Group will identify the most appropriate managers and investment strategies across multiple regions to provide the most optimal outcomes for Neuberger Berman clients.

“Richard’s skill set complements and enhances our approach to wealth management and investing, including traditional and alternative investments. His diverse background working in wealth management and in alternative investment strategies for a wide range of clients is a great match for his role as chief investment officer of the Neuberger Berman Trust Company. We are delighted to have him join us in that position as well as leading the firm’s Investment Strategy Group,” said Erik Knutzen, chief investment officer of multi-asset class portfolios at Neuberger Berman.

Prior to joining the firm, Mr. Gardiner was a consultant at the Reservoir Capital Group and chief investment officer and co-founder of an independent wealth management firm. Earlier, Mr. Gardiner was at Man Investments as head of Arbitrage & Credit and a member of the firm’s Investment Committee. Before joining Man, he was responsible for convertible sales and trading at J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs. Currently, Mr. Gardiner is a board trustee of the Emma Willard School and a member of the school’s Investment Committee and Finance & Audit Committee. Mr. Gardiner graduated cum laude from Yale University and earned his M.B.A. from Harvard Business School.

Capital Group Opens Amsterdam Office and Hires Country Marketing Manager

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Capital Group, one of the largest and most experienced investment management firms worldwide, has announced the launch of its office in Amsterdam, as well as the appointment of Martin Hofman as Country Marketing Manager for the Benelux and Nordics regions.

Capital Group continues to focus on delivering high-quality long-term investment services to investors and institutions throughout Europe. The launch of the Amsterdam office and appointment of Mr Hofman, alongside other recent investment and business development hires, highlight this commitment.

Speaking at the office opening last night in Amsterdam, Rob Lovelace, Senior Member of Capital Group’s Management Committee and a Portfolio Manager, commented: “Capital Group recognises the importance of enhancing its relationships on a global, regional and local basis, in order to build upon its long-standing heritage. Our Dutch office is the latest in a series of new European offices we have opened over the past two years and is an essential part of our ambition to deliver long-term, reliable asset management services for Dutch, and European, investors, as well as expanding our global footprint.”

Mr Hofman will be based in the Amsterdam office and joins Feike Goudsmit and Marnix van den Berge, who respectively lead Capital Group’s business development activities in the Benelux institutional and financial intermediaries markets.He will play a key role in expanding Capital Group’s services in the Benelux and Nordics regions.

Mr Hofman joins Capital Group from Columbia Threadneedle Investments, where he began as Regional Marketing Manager for the Benelux and Nordics regions in 2008. Since 2014, he has been responsible for leading the institutional marketing activities in the EMEA region, including strategy planning, and development and execution of regional and global campaigns.

Capital Group has also continued to expand on its European operations by making several new appointments in the past year. These include the appointments of Christophe Braun in January 2016 and Julie Dickson in December 2015 as investment specialists in the London office.

Capital Group currently has sales branches in eight locations across Europe: Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Geneva, London, Luxemburg, Madrid, Milan and Zurich.

Growth is not a Valid Reason for Investment, not Even for Emerging Markets

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For many years, a constant within the capital markets was that emerging markets equalled growth. This also served as the universal argument for investing in emerging markets. For Marc Erpelding, fund manager of the BL-Emerging Markets fund, emerging markets will experience a slower rate of growth in the future.

“The days of “simple” growth, backed by state investment programmes and exports based on low wage levels are pretty much gone. Going forward, the service sector and the domestic consumption will play an ever greater role. However, studies have shown that there is no link between economic growth and stock market performance. So “growth” is not a valid reason for investment, not even for emerging markets.” Therefore, according to Erpelding, the slowdown in growth should not necessarily be considered a negative development.

His investment process includes focusing on firms “which are in a position to create added value in the long term for their customers and shareholders; ideally, they can do this independently of macroeconomic trends. Firms that have high barriers to entry, present robust balance sheets and generate strong positive cash flows generally have the advantage of seeing less correction in bear markets and often emerge on top after crises. In addition, we only invest in easy-to- understand business models. It does not matter to us whether or not these companies are included in the index or what their weighting is.” This consistent investment approach can result in them being very underweight in financials or commodities. “We often find that banks lack transparency and, in the case of commodities firms, the investment decision tends to depend more on the commodity cycle than on the company itself.”

In the years 2010 to 2014, the MSCI Emerging Markets index mainly moved sideways. “However, we are less interested in the direction of the index than in the price performance of the high-quality companies we are tracking. Since May 2015, we have seen sharp corrections in this segment too, which we have used to raise the equity ratio from around 68% to approximately 84% at present. This is the highest equity ratio in the fund since the financial crisis. The corrections have led to more attractive valuations for many high-quality firms and allowed us to add to existing positions or initiate on new companies. These are purely bottom-up decisions. We will increase the equity ratio further, should high- quality companies increasingly undergo correction.. In an asset class that is (unfortunately) still regarded as satellite and therefore heavily depends on investors’ appetite for risk, we think this countercyclical approach makes great sense” he concludes.

Buy and Sell Side Join Forces in Support of STS Securitisation

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The Association for Financial Markets in Europe (AFME), the European Fund and Asset Management Association (EFAMA), the International Capital Market Association (ICMA) and Insurance Europe have issued a joint paper backing efforts by EU policymakers to develop a robust and successful framework for simple, transparent and standardised (STS) securitisation.

In line with the Commission’s flagship Capital Markets Union initiative, the associations believe that a new framework for securitisation could play a pivotal role between banks’ financing and capital markets, enabling much-needed non-bank funding alternatives and providing investors with high-quality fixed income securities and attractive yields.

In the joint paper, the organisations affirm that securitisation is an important element of well-functioning financial markets and call for securitisation to be treated on a level playing field with other forms of investment. They highlight their shared views on the key points for EU policymakers to consider in their development of the new framework.

Simon Lewis, Chief Executive of AFME, said: “The development of a high-quality securitisation market in Europe is an integral part of the Capital Markets Union and contributes to the Commission’s objectives to revive the real economy through increased financing and prudent risk transfer. For the European securitisation market to be safely and successfully rebuilt, the new framework must be attractive for both issuers and investors whilst operating under a strong but fair and rational regulatory regime. We are delighted to unite with investors and other market participants on this important policy initiative.”

Peter De Proft, Director General of EFAMA, commented: “EFAMA is acutely aware of the generational opportunity offered by the Capital Markets Union in restoring economic growth in Europe. The Commission’s securitisation package, as an essential component of a successful CMU, could potentially generate billions in additional funding for the economy and could act as a key driver in encouraging investor participation in European capital markets. This joint initiative of the buy-side and sell-side is testament to the sheer emphasis we believe should be placed on achieving a balanced securitisation framework which will work for our markets, our investors and Europe as a whole.”

Martin Scheck, Chief Executive of ICMA, said: “Securitisation represents a crucial asset class for investors and borrowers in Europe. As an association with both buy- and sell-side members we have strongly welcomed efforts to revive securitisation as a key element in financing the drive to restore jobs and growth in Europe. This joint paper underlines our commitment to supporting an appropriately designed framework to achieve this.”

Michaela Koller, Director General of Insurance Europe, said: “Insurers must have access to a wide range of assets in order to diversify their portfolios, and this includes a need for high quality securitisations. Steps to identify good securitisations have already been made under Solvency II and the Commission’s proposal is a continuation of this, with some important improvements. However, further improvements are needed, some of which this paper outlines. From an insurer’s perspective, we are calling for a much needed revision of the capital treatment of securitisations under Solvency II.”

What Wealthy Families in Latin America Need to Know About Compliance Rules

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“Compliance rules have dramatically changed in the last few years, and the next two ones will be even more complicated or challenging for most wealthy families,” says Martin Litwak, from law firm Litwak & Partners who discusses how the new compliance rules are impacting private wealth management in Latin America.

According to the Lawyer, “there is a lot of information online about FATCA and CRS coming from banks and financial providers, but some families are not getting the best advice, from independent lawyers, on what to do or not do, how to manage the risks and the practical impact of these changes. It is not about filling out a new questionnaire. Families must make sure that the set of structures in place are in compliant with the new scenario. It is not just one piece of law that has changed; the whole system is now different.”

Nowadays countries are cooperating for tax purposes, and the information on a family’s assets is available to authorities as well as to third parties. “Which is a bigger issue in a region like Latin America, where kidnappings take place and many governments are corrupt. The fact that information could exchange hands for very little money is very dangerous” he says.

In his opinion, families must have the right structures in place before all these new rules take effect. They also should report whatever they have or own. “If they do not like the consequences this reporting may have, they can move to a different country with a better tax system. If they are not prepared to do this, they may be able to save or differ some taxes and/or to reach some level of confidentiality at least vis a vis third parties other than governments by setting up trusts and/or private family funds.”

Jurisdictions traditionally considered as offshore international financial centers have stronger protections of secrecy and privacy. “With offshore assets, it is better to structure them offshore too. Our clients usually pursue three objectives: privacy, tax optimization and succession planning. If they value secrecy the most, regulated investment funds (perhaps with their shares being publicly traded) are better than trusts. If succession planning is more important, a trust structure might be the best solution. We try to identify what matters to them the most, but they must also understand what can and cannot be achieved in this new transparent world.”

Litwak will be present at the marcus evans Latin Private Wealth Management Summit 2016 in Panama.

Nikko Asset Management Receives Two Awards from Asia Asset Management

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Nikko Asset Management recibe dos premios en los Asia Asset Management Awards — CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Glyn Lowe. Nikko Asset Management Receives Two Awards from Asia Asset Management

Nikko Asset Management has been recognized for excellence in two categories by the Hong-Kong based publication Asia Asset Management. The firm won the Best of the Best Award for both the Japan: Most Innovative Product and the Singapore: Best RQFII House categories for 2015. This is the second consecutive year for Nikko Asset Management to win the Singapore: Best RQFII House Award.

The Tokyo-headquartered asset manager was recognized with the Japan: Most Innovative Product Award for one of its most innovative products in 2015, the Global Robotics Equity Fund. Launched in August, the fund attracted over 300 billion yen of inflows within three months, driven by Japanese investors’ demand for greater exposure to robotics-related equities. The firm’s research uncovered that fast-growing robotics companies were not well captured with a traditional sector-focused approach to investing. The Global Robotics Equity Fund was the first in Japan to focus on cross-sectoral robotics companies.1

“It’s an honor to be recognized for our excellence in product development and innovation. I believe it’s a strong testament to our firm’s ability to not only recognize global investment trends but to provide our clients with the ability to benefit from them,” said Hideo Abe, director and executive vice chairman at Nikko Asset Management.

The firm was also awarded the Singapore: Best RQFII House Award for its leadership in RQFII solutions. Nikko Asset Management launched Singapore’s first retail China Onshore Bond Fund in July 2014. The fund opened up a highly regulated market with limited foreign investor access to Singaporean investors. Following the launch of the fund, investors were able to participate in the potential growth prospects of China’s onshore bond market. The firm has been a pioneer in the offshore RMB bond fund market in Singapore since 2010.

In September 2015, the firm launched the Nikko AM China Equity fund in Singapore, offering retail investors the opportunity to benefit from the growth potential of the China A-shares market.

“This recognition as Singapore’s best RQFII house validates our position as the industry leader in providing our clients with direct access to China, which is expected to account for 20 percent of global GDP by 2020 and become the world’s largest economy within the next 15 years,” said Eleanor Seet, President of Nikko Asset Management Asia, a subsidiary based in Singapore of Nikko Asset Management.