CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Investment Europe. Invesco Hires Deutsche AM Head of EMEA Marketing
Invesco announce the appointment of Henning Stein as Head of Institutional Marketing for the EMEA region. Based in Zurich, Stein will report to will report to David Bower, head of Marketing at Invesco and will be part of the distribution leadership team led by Colin Fitzgerald, head of Invesco’s EMEA Institutional Business.
Henning joins from Deutsche Asset Management where he led EMEA Institutional and Retail Marketing. One of his core focus areas has been the development of research-based marketing programmes for institutional investors. As Chair of the firm’s academic foundation, he established and developed a thought leadership programme to provide clients with a wide range of perspectives and research. This helped clients develop ideas and solutions to address wider financial requirements beyond their immediate manager selection activities. In so doing, he has established a broad academic network of finance professors from institutions such as the University of Cambridge, the University of Zurich and MIT; a network that we believe will complement our ongoing activities in the institutional market. Henning holds a PhD from the University of Cambridge (Darwin College) in Business and Economics.
“I would also like to take this opportunity to thank Carsten Majer who since 2013 has been responsible for EMEA Institutional Marketing. Under his leadership we have consolidated our institutional marketing efforts in the region and progressed our marketing activities particularly in the UK, CH, DE, AT and the Middle East. With the near doubling in size of the Cross Border retail channel over the period and corresponding growth in complexity and depth of marketing activities, I’m delighted that Carsten will have more time to focus on this critical activity”, points out Bower.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Beijing Patrol. China Will Need To Maintain And Even Lower Its Interest Rates To Avoid A Sharper Downturn
China’s rapid growth over the past decade has been fuelled by cheap credit. According to Investec, this has led to a misallocation of capital, particularly following the global financial crisis when policymakers unleashed a RMB4 trillion stimulus package into infrastructure, construction and heavy industry. According to Oxford Economics, the China’s overall debt load (public, private and financial) rose from 176% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2007, to 258% by mid-2014, and over 300% by the end of 2015. This has continued to rise as China’s so-called total social financing, or aggregate debt, rose by RMB3.42 trillion ($520 billion) in January alone, according to official data.
Bank lending is in much need of reform. Borrowing is concentrated in sectors where there is major overcapacity – heavy manufacturing, property and infrastructure – which are dominated by often inefficient state-owned enterprises (SOEs). The Emerging Market Fixed Income team at Investec, which has recently conducted a number of research trips to mainland China, thinks that the implicit government guarantee of SOE borrowings remains in place, resulting in debt being rolled over, rather than called in.
SOEs rolling over debt presents a challenge for policymakers. “Given high and rising debt service ratios, as credit growth continues to outstrip nominal GDP growth, China will need to maintain and even lower its interest rates to avoid a sharper and more prolonged downturn,” says Mark Evans, an analyst in Emerging Market Fixed Income. “But lowering interest rates on Chinese assets will again put pressure on capital outflows as investors earn less yield on their renminbi assets, hence the difficulties policymakers are facing right now.”
Rising debt loads is likely to lead to a financial cycle whereby the proportion of non-performing loans (NPLs) starts rising. Official data suggest that banks’ NPLs were around RMB1.95 trillion (2% of GDP) in December 2015. But a truer measure of where non-performing loans may actually settle is the sum of NPLs and special-mention loans – those that are overdue but which banks don’t yet consider impaired – which the IMF estimated these constituted about 5.4% of GDP in August 2015.
According to John Holmes, a sector specialist for financials in the 4Factor Equity™ team, “Prior banking crises globally have typically seen a 6-7 percentage point increase in the NPL ratio from trough, which would suggest a 7% or 8% true NPL ratio as a starting point for the Chinese banks in the event of a severe downturn.”
The growth of NPLs in the shadow-banking sector is also concerning. “It is hard to pinpoint exactly who has done the lending”, says Mike Hugman, strategist in Emerging Market Fixed Income, “as there have been several rapidly growing lending channels outside the banking system. But we think that corporate leverage is now around 140-150% of GDP, higher than in any other emerging market.”
The good news is that much of China’s credit growth has been domestically financed. Consequently, we expect that policymakers have a greater ability to manage the cycle than perhaps we would expect in more open economies, as we saw during the global financial crisis.
The State Council is expecting China’s banks to share the burden of cleaning up bad debt. John believes that “Chinese banks have historically enjoyed high levels of profitability, with return on equity averaging in the region of 20% over the last decade, aided by strong loan growth, high pre-provision margins and relatively benign asset quality.” He reckons that “their high pre-provision profit margins means they should have the capacity to charge-off bad assets over a multi-year period and remain profitable even with NPLs north of 10%, as some analysts suggest.”
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Arturo Sánchez
. Investors Want Transparency, Ethics, and Performance, CFA Institute Survey Reveals
Investors are expecting higher levels of transparency than ever before, holding their investment managers to the highest ethical standards, and are laser-focused on returns, according to a newly released study “From Trust to Loyalty: A Global Survey of What Investors Want,” by CFA Institute, the global association of investment professionals, that measures the opinions of both retail and institutional investors globally.
The findings reveal that investors want regular, clear communications about fees and upfront conversations about conflicts of interest. The biggest gaps between investor expectations and what they receive relate to fees and performance. Clients want fees that are structured to align their interests, are well disclosed and fairly reflect the value they are getting from their investment firms.
“The bar for investment management professionals has never been higher. Retail and institutional investors, as always, crave strong performance, however both groups also demand enhanced communication and guidance from their money managers. Building trust requires truly demonstrating your commitment to clients’ well-being, not empty performance promises or tick-the-box compliance exercises. Effectively doing so will help advance the investment management profession at a time when the public questions its worth and relevance.” said Paul Smith, president and CEO of CFA Institute.
“While an increase in overall trust in the financial services industry is a net positive for financial professionals,” continued Smith, “performance is no longer the only ‘deal breaker’ for investors. They are continuing to demand more clarity and service from financial professionals and, with the rise of robo-advisors, they have more alternatives than ever before. Further, if investment professionals don’t provide this clarity, then regulators may force them to, for better or worse.”
The study also shows that investors are anxious about global markets, and do not believe their investment firms are prepared. Investors revealed a growing anxiety about the state of global finance. Almost one-third of investors feel that another financial crisis is likely within the next three years (33 percent of retail investors/29 percent of institutional investors), with significantly more in India (59 percent) and France (46 percent). In addition, only half of all investors believe their investment firms are “very well prepared” or “well prepared” (52 percent retail investors/49 percent institutional investors) to manage their portfolio through a crisis.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Leticia Machado
. The Majority of New Assets in European Equities Have Landed in The Most Active Funds
Average active share for European large-cap funds was 69.6% in the three-year period through March 2015, with a median of 72.4% when measured against the funds’ appropriate style indexes. That is the finding of a new study from Morningstar.
“Our results show that between 2005 and 2015 “closet indexing” has become rarer among European large-cap funds, and those funds with higher active shares have received the lion’s share of new assets. We find that funds with higher active share have delivered better investment results than the least active funds in most of our research period, but not unambiguously. Because dispersions in returns and risk characteristics become much wider as a portfolio’s active share rises towards 100%, investors should not rely solely on active share when selecting funds”.
Among other findings of the report, the percentage of funds with a three-year average active share below 60% (so-called closet indexers) was 20.2%. The portion of funds that can be characterized as closet indexers has been falling in the researched categories in recent years. The majority of new assets in European equities have landed in the most active funds.
Although funds in the most active quartile charge 33 basis points more on average than those in the least active quartile for their retail share classes, we find that when price is measured per unit of active share, European investors are overpaying for low active share funds. Investors should compare fees carefully as dispersion in fees among funds with similar active shares is high.
Morningstar finds a strong inverse correlation between active share and market risk. Active share numbers dropped considerably during the financial crisis of 2008-09 but have been rising at a steady pace since then.
Funds across the board lowered the share of mid- and small-cap stocks in their portfolios in 2008-09, but this was especially the case for the most active funds.
The funds with the highest active shares have done better, on average, than those in the least active quartile in all of the five-year periods tested between 1 July 2006 and June-end 2015. However, the difference in excess returns between the most and the least active quartile has decreased recently, which implies that the strength of active share as a selection tool is time-period dependent. Invariably, however, the funds with the lowest active shares have been the worst performers.
The study finds that funds in the highest active share quartile have displayed much stronger style biases than the average fund. This may not always be desirable from a fund investor’s point of view, and complicates the use of active share in fund selection. The style effects have been especially strong in the small group of funds with an above 90% active share. After controlling for style effects in a four- factor regression model, we find their alpha to be lower than for any other group in the most recent five-year period researched.
Investors who use active share as a fund selection tool should exercise caution. As active share increases, dispersion in returns and risk levels rises sharply; the best and worst performing funds are to be found among the more active ones. Therefore, we advise using active share only in combination with other quantitative and qualitative tools.
Combining active share with tracking error adds a useful dimension to the analysis, and we find this to be an adequate analytical framework in the European large-cap space. Confirming results in US markets, we find that funds that exhibit a large tracking error but a low or moderate active share (so- called factor bet funds) have underperformed.
“We find that funds with Positive Morningstar Analyst Ratings tend to have above-average active shares and tracking errors”, says the study.
“In less than a decade, “active share” has become a widely used concept in fund analysis. However, much of the available active share research references only US-domiciled funds. In this paper we study a subset of European funds investing in European equities to see how their active share has developed over time, and evaluate how the active share measure might be used as a tool to aid fund selection within the European fund universe. The study encompasses the period 1 January 2005 through June-end 2015. By including only large-cap funds, we reduce the difficulties arising from benchmark selection and the impact of the small-cap effect”.
Ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) meeting on March 10th, Keith Wade, Chief Economist & Strategist at Schroders looks at whether central banks’ powers are waning in their fight against falling inflation.
According to him, ahead of the March ECB meeting, three factors have set the scene for potential further policy easing:
Lower oil prices
Fears over global growth
Lower market based measures of inflation expectations
He mentions that “one may expect similar policy responses of rate cuts or quantitative easing (QE) expansion to not produce vastly different medium term results to what we have seen already, with growth and inflation so far limited in the backdrop of subdued global growth. It is perhaps this thought process that leaves the market questioning what effective policies central banks can enact further.”
Wade says that there is a cchance that we could see, for the first time, a lowering of inflation targets across the globe.
For at least the last decade the general belief within markets is that regardless of the situation, central banks will help limit losses in risk assets by lowering interest rates or introducing QE (also known as the central bank ‘put’ option). This school of thought has been questioned in recent weeks, with further possible policy action available to central banks seemingly limited, at least compared to what was available in the past. “Monetary policy has been kept very loose, yet signs of strong growth and inflation are difficult to see… with lower spot inflation used in setting future wages and prices, thus affecting core inflation. The problem with inflation is the longer it stays low, the more embedded lower long-term inflation expectations become.”
With market-based measures of average inflation in the 6-10 year range falling across many major markets, consumer-based expectations of inflation have also been falling in recent years.
The market had previously nicknamed the ECB President ‘Super’ Mario Draghi after the “shock and awe” asset purchasing programme announced in January 2015. “On March 10th we will find out whether that nickname has been reclaimed after the disappointment of the December meeting,” he concludes.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Ben W.
. Basel III Fundamentally Changes How Asset Managers Are Connected To The Financial System
Basel III reforms have fundamentally changed how asset managers are connected to the financial system, with hedge funds challenged to understand expense, usage and access to the financing power grid, according to a joint survey and report by the Alternative Investment Management Association (AIMA), the global representative body for alternative asset managers, and S3 Partners, a leading financial data, analytics and services firm.
Jack Inglis, CEO of AIMA, commented: “There is no doubt that the Basel III banking standards are having a significant impact on hedge funds and other alternative asset managers. Financing costs are rising and the fund manager / prime broker relationship is changing fundamentally. It is our hope that this timely and important report will provide clarity and direction to those who have felt the impact of the recent regulations, and to give context to issues that are being felt across the industry.”
Bob Sloan, CEO of S3 Partners, commented: “New bank capital regulations are creating downstream financing challenges and opportunities for asset managers and hedge funds. The survey clearly shows how plugging into the financial power grid is getting more expensive.”
Mr Sloan continued: “Managers of all shapes, sizes and strategies now seek to answer the question: How can we maintain access to the grid, while optimizing for the right amount of efficiency? As the survey results show, access to unbiased data, comprehensive Return on Assets/Return on Equity analytics, and a common language are critically important towards determining fairness – as rates, margin, spreads and contracts will be a key determinant for an asset managers’ success.”
Rising financing costs. The survey of fund managers worldwide found that:
Financing costs have risen for 50% of firms, with an even split between those who quantify the level of cost increase as being greater than 10% and below 10%.
75% of firms expect further cost increases over the next two years.
The impact is consistent regardless of a fund manager’s size, investment strategy or location.
Rethinking prime brokerage relationships:
Fund managers responding to the survey said they are having to rethink their prime brokerage relationships due to Basel III.
75% have been asked to change how they do business with their prime brokers, while more than 67% have had to cut the amount of cash they keep on their brokers’ balance sheets.
Importantly, the survey found that:
Most alternative asset managers over the last two years have either maintained or increased the number of prime brokers they use, with the average number of financing relationships found to be four.
Only 20% of fund managers have a clear understanding of how their prime brokers calculate their worth in terms of the revenue they provide relative to balance sheet impact, known as “return on assets” or RoA. Fewer still have the data necessary to calculate this themselves.
Photo: Youtube. BNY Mellon Names Mitchell Harris CEO of Investment Management Business
BNY Mellon recently announced that Mitchell Harris has been named chief executive officer of the company’s Investment Management business, effective immediately. Harris, who already had responsibility for the day-to-day oversight of the company’s investment boutiques globally and wealth management business, will report to Gerald L. Hassell, BNY Mellon’s chairman and CEO. BNY Mellon Investment Management amounts $1.6 trillion in assets under management.
Harris succeeds Curtis Arledge, who led the company’s Investment Management business and Markets Group and has decided to pursue other opportunities outside of the company.
Harris, most recently president of BNY Mellon Investment Management, joined BNY Mellon in 2004 and has had a distinguished career in investment management and private banking spanning more than 30 years. Harris was CEO of Standish, a BNY Mellon investment boutique, from 2004 to 2009. He joined Standish from Pareto Partners, where he served as chief executive officer from 2000 to 2004 and as chairman from 2001.
“Mitchell has an impressive track record in the investment management industry, having led several successful firms during his career and most recently in overseeing our industry leading line-up of investment boutiques globally. He is well regarded across our client base, and I am confident he will lead our investment management business with great insight and success,” said Hassell. “I want to thank Curtis for his many contributions and helping to position our Investment Management and Markets businesses for growth and success moving forward.”
Michelle Neal,president of the Markets Group, who reported to Arledge, will report to Hassell, effective immediately. In her role, Neal leads the company’s foreign exchange, securities finance, collateral management, and capital markets businesses.
Foto: AedoPulltrone. BNP Paribas Investment Partners nombra nuevo responsable de renta fija de los mercados emergentes
BNP Paribas Investment Partners announces the appointment of L. Bryan Carter as Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income. He will be based in London and will report to Dominick DeAlto, Chief Investment Officer of Institutional Fixed Income.
Bryan has 12 years’ experience of emerging market fixed income investment and joins from Acadian Asset Management in Boston, where he was lead portfolio manager for benchmark relative and absolute return fixed income strategies and was a member of the Macro Strategy and Investment Policy committees. He joined Acadian in 2007 to launch the company’s emerging market fixed income strategy. Prior to Acadian, he spent four years as an international economist, first at the United States Treasury Department and then at T Rowe Price Associates. Bryan has a BA in Economics & Spanish from Georgetown University and an MPAdm in International Development from Harvard University.
In this role Bryan will have oversight of the management of all emerging market fixed income portfolios and will be responsible for overall investment strategy, performance and the allocation of the risk budget across multiple sources of alpha within emerging markets. BNP Paribas Investment Partners’ emerging market fixed income team currently consists of eight investment professionals and manages client assets totalling $1.3 billion across a range of mutual funds and segregated client accounts.
Dominick DeAlto, Chief Investment Officer of Institutional Fixed Income at BNP Paribas Investment Partners, comments: “Bryan Carter has considerable experience of evaluating emerging market risks and opportunities, gained within both asset management and central government planning, and we are pleased to welcome him as Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income. BNP Paribas Investment Partners has an extensive network of analytical resources based across the broad emerging markets universe, providing us with access to real-time local information. Bryan will be instrumental in further harnessing these capabilities in order to ensure that we continue to deliver optimum investment performance for our clients.”
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: C2C Balloon
. Are Markets Right to Worry?
Lower oil prices would normally be expected to benefit the global economy through aiding both consumers and corporates in oil-importing economies, says Stefan Kreuzkamp, Chief Investment Officer, Deutsche Asset Management. He remains constructive on global growth, but thinks there is still some risk of the benefits of lower oil prices being overshadowed by continuing financial- market turbulence. “Perhaps most importantly, lower oil prices have reopened the Pandora’s box of concerns about the longer-term negative side effects of looser monetary policy. In the ancient Greek fable, of course, Hope lies at the bottom of the box – but many more problems fly out first.”
His message is that the changing structure of the oil market and uncertainty about what this means will continue to have market implications. Oil can no longer be seen as a “known problem” that can be assessed in terms of known fundamentals, he adds. Therefore the firm has reduced its forecasts for major equity indices and increased its end-2016 spread forecasts for U.S. high yield. Although they have slightly adjusted the euro high-yield spread forecast as well, they see much lower risks of defaults in this segment.
“We caution that it is still too early to invest in oil-related equities. But this, in a sense, is the easy part.” Declares Kreuzkamp. What is more difficult is to assess the timing to re-enter or to build up positions. For U.S. high yield, for example, implied default rates look excessive, in his view. But the tag-war between markets and fundamentals might well continue, in high yield as in other areas, and impair fundamentals in the process.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Moyan Brenn
. Henderson Global Investors Hires Stephen Deane to Join Emerging Markets Equities Team
Stephen Deane has joined Henderson Global Investors from Stewart Investors (previously known as First State Stewart) as a senior portfolio manager. He will work alongside the head of emerging markets equities, Glen Finegan, and the wider emerging markets equities team. Stephen will be based in Henderson’s Edinburgh office.
Most recently Stephen spent over five years at Stewart Investors where he worked as an analyst and co-manager of the worldwide Equity funds. In this role, Stephen was responsible for generating ideas for global, emerging markets and Asian portfolios.
Previous to this, Stephen spent 13 years at Accenture and during this time he completed an Executive Masters in Business Administration (MBA) at INSEAD, Fontainebleau in France, with distinction.
Glen Finegan, head of emerging markets equities at Henderson, said: “Stephen and I worked closely together at First State and, given our shared experience, I feel the hire is a very good fit for the team. We share a similar investment philosophy and Stephen’s disciplined approach will be of great benefit to our clients.
“Stephen’s hire evidences Henderson’s continued commitment to the emerging markets equities asset class and signals the further strengthening of Henderson’s franchise working out of Edinburgh. We are certain Stephen’s global insights will be invaluable going forward.”
Stephen Deane adds: “I believe that there is a significant opportunity to help build Henderson’s emerging markets franchise based on its philosophy of long-term quality oriented investing, something Glen and I both share. This combined with Henderson’s reputation for excellent client service, global distribution and a client-led culture made joining the company a straightforward decision”.
As part of the team build-out in Edinburgh, Michael Cahoon has been promoted from analyst to portfolio manager, effective immediately, having contributed significantly to overall performance during the past year. Additionally he has been named co-manager on the US mutual fund, the Emerging Markets Fund. Nicholas Cowley will also be named as co-manager on the Henderson Gartmore Emerging Markets Fund.
