What Happened to the Bull Market?

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What Happened to the Bull Market?
Foto: TurboSquid 3D printing. ¿Qué le pasó al mercado alcista?

According to Russ Koesterich, Head of Asset Allocation for BlackRock’s Global Allocation Fund, “the bull market has stumbled, but that doesn’t mean we are headed towards a bear market.”

Indeed stocks suffered a horrific sell-off last Friday following the surprise vote by the UK to exit the European Union. But even before the Brexit vote, stocks had been losing steam. U.S. large cap stocks have now gone well over a year without making a new high. The S&P 500 is trading right where it was in the fall of 2014. Small cap stocks have performed even worse. The Russell 2000 bounced sharply off of the February lows, but small caps remain roughly 10% below their 2015 peak.

What happened to the bull market? Koesterich believes that three trends help answer that question, which he explains in his company’s blog:

Stocks got expensive
U.S. stocks are not in a bubble — valuations remain significantly below the peak in 2000 — but that is not the same as being cheap, or even fairly priced. At over 19x trailing earnings stocks are trading in the top quartile of their historical valuation range. True, stocks still look cheap relative to bonds, but it is worth considering why. Bond yields are low because nominal growth is remarkably weak, not a great environment for corporate earnings. In addition, central banks have increasingly treated bond markets as yet another manifestation of monetary policy. Bond yields have been driven lower not just by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) quantitative easing (QE), but more recently by the behavior of other central banks. As the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have driven yields into negative territory, U.S. bonds have become more attractive to foreign buyers, pushing yields still lower. Stocks are cheap relative to bonds because bond yields reflect little growth and aggressive central banks.

Financial conditions have become less benign
Interest rates, both nominal and real (i.e. after inflation), are incredibly low, but other measures of financial conditions are less benign. While the dollar is trading roughly where it was a year ago, it is up more than 20% from its 2014 lows. A stronger dollar is a de facto monetary tightening and a headwind for corporate earnings. Other measures also indicate tighter financial conditions. Credit spreads have narrowed from their recent peak, but high yield spreads are roughly 200 basis points wider than they were two years ago. Finally, liquidity has become harder to find, as demonstrated by the recent freeze in IPOs.

The tailwinds abated
Much of the stock market gains in 2012 and 2013 were driven by multiple expansion on the back of aggressive monetary stimulus. Between the market low in 2011 and the end of 2014 the price-to-earnings ratio on the S&P 500 expanded by over 40%. Put differently, as central banks, including the Fed, embarked on an increasingly aggressive series of monetary experiments investors responded by consistently paying more for a dollar of earnings. However, since 2014, QE has ended and monetary stimulus by other central banks, notably the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank, is proving less effective in stimulating asset prices, outside of European credit.

Where does this leave investors? “The good news is that none of these conditions signal an imminent bear market. Valuations are high, but have typically been higher at market peaks. The dollar has stabilized, which should take some pressure off of corporate earnings. Unfortunately, with central bank policy increasingly impotent and valuations elevated and political risk on the rise investors need to recalibrate their expectations. Consistent years of double digit returns can be viewed as borrowing returns from the future. It appears that future is now, suggesting lower returns today.” He concludes.

Introducing Colony NorthStar, Equity REIT With $58 Billion of Assets Under Management

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El REIT Colony NorthStar nace con 58.000 millones de dólares en activos, de la fusión de NorthStar AMG, Colony Capital y NorthStar Realty Finance
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Guilhem Vellut . Introducing Colony NorthStar, Equity REIT With $58 Billion of Assets Under Management

NorthStar Asset Management Group, Colony Capital, and NorthStar Realty Finance have announced that they have entered into a definitive merger agreement under which the companies will combine in an all-stock merger of equals transaction to create a real estate and investment management platform.

The combined company will be named “Colony NorthStar, Inc.” The transaction is expected to close during the first quarter of 2017, subject to customary closing conditions, including regulatory approvals, and approval by the NSAM, Colony and NRF shareholders.

Upon completion of the transaction, NSAM shareholders will own approximately 32.85%, Colony shareholders will own approximately 33.25% and NRF shareholders will own approximately 33.90% of the combined company on a fully diluted basis. NSAM shareholders will also receive, in addition to its regular quarterly dividend, a special cash dividend equal to $128 million, which represents a one-time distribution of excess NSAM taxable earnings and profits.

Upon closing of the transaction, Thomas J. Barrack Jr. will be Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors of Colony NorthStar, David Hamamoto will be Executive Vice Chairman, and Richard B. Saltzman will be Chief Executive Officer.

The transaction creates a global, diversified equity REIT with $58 billion of assets under management, led by a seasoned management team with access to proprietary deal sourcing and a significant track record as a global investor, operator and asset manager.

The portfolio has a concentration in scaled verticals across geographies, property types and capital stack positions, consisting primarily of owned real estate.

The companies have estimated an approximately $115 million in total annual cost synergies, consisting of approximately $80 million of cash savings and approximately $35 million of stock based compensation savings, expected to be realized post-closing.

Hong Kong and Switzerland Ahead of the United States in the Competitiveness Ranking

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Hong Kong y Suiza superan a Estados Unidos en el índice de competitividad global
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Barbara Willi . Hong Kong and Switzerland Ahead of the United States in the Competitiveness Ranking

The USA has surrendered its status as the world’s most competitive economy, which it has led for the past three years, after being overtaken by China Hong Kong and Switzerland, according to the IMD World Competitiveness Center Ranking.

The 2016 edition ranks China Hong Kong first, Switzerland second and the USA third, with Singapore, Sweden, Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway and Canada completing the top 10.

Professor Arturo Bris, Director of the IMD World Competitiveness Center, said a consistent commitment to a favorable business environment was central to China Hong Kong’s rise and that Switzerland’s small size and its emphasis on a commitment to quality have allowed it to react quickly to keep its economy on top.

“The USA still boasts the best economic performance in the world, but there are many other factors that we take into account when assessing competitiveness,” he said.

“The common pattern among all of the countries in the top 20 is their focus on business-friendly regulation, physical and intangible infrastructure and inclusive institutions.”

A leading banking and financial center, China Hong Kong encourages innovation through low and simple taxation and imposes no restrictions on capital flows into or out of the territory.It also offers a gateway for foreign direct investment in China Mainland, the world’s newest economic superpower, and enables businesses there to access global capital markets.Taiwan, Malaysia, Korea Republic, and Indonesia have all suffered significant falls from their 2015 positions, while China Mainland declined only narrowly retaining its place in the top 25.

The study reveals some of the most impressive strides in Europe have been made by countries in the East, chief among them Latvia, the Slovak Republic and Slovenia. Western European economies have also continued to improve, with researchers highlighting the ongoing post-financial-crisis recovery of the public sector as a key driver.

Meanwhile, 36th-placed Chile is the sole Latin American nation outside the bottom 20, while Argentina, in 55th, is the only country in the region to have improved on its 2015 position.

 “One important fact that the ranking makes clear year after year is that current economic growth is by no means a guarantee of future competitiveness.” Added Professor Bris.

 

 

Funds Processing Rates Reach New Levels of Automation

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The European Fund and Asset Management Association (EFAMA) recently published in cooperation with SWIFT, a new report on the evolution of automation and standardisation rates of fund orders received by transfer agents (TAs) in the cross-border fund centres of Luxembourg and Ireland in the first half of 2015.

The report confirms that the automation rate in the fund industry increased to 83.5% in Q2 2015 from 82.6% in Q4 2014.

The report is an on-going campaign by EFAMA and SWIFT to highlight the advancement of automation and standardisation rates of orders of cross-border funds. 29 TAs from Ireland and Luxembourg participated in this survey, representing more than 80% of the total incoming third-party investment funds order volumes in both markets.

The report highlights include:

  • The total order volume of cross-border funds increased by 11% to 17.5 million orders in the first half of 2015, from 15.8 million orders in the second half of 2014. The use of ISO messaging standards rose by 3.8 percentages points (p.p.) to 53.2%, while the use of manual processes and proprietary formats (FTP) dropped to 16.5% (-0.9 p.p.) and 30.3% (-2.9 p.p.), respectively, in the same time period.
  • The total automation rate of orders processed by Luxembourg TAs reached 81.2% in Q2 2015 compared to 81.3% in Q4 2014.  The ISO automation rate increased from 57.9% in Q4 2014 to 64.3% in Q2 2015, while the use of proprietary ftp decreased from 23.4% in Q4 2014 to 16.9% in Q2 2015.
  •  The total automation rate of orders processed by Irish TAs increased to 88.3% in Q2 2015, from 85.6% in Q4 2014.  The percentage of automated orders based on the ISO messaging standards increase to 30.7% in Q2 2015, from 29.5% in Q4 2014.

Peter De Proft, EFAMA Director General, says:
“The findings presented in this mid-year status report confirms the growing use of the ISO messaging standards in the processing of cross-border funds in both Luxembourg and Ireland.   Compared to five years ago, overall, the share of orders processed using these standards has increased from 36% to 53%.  This is a very positive development which brings greater efficiency funds processing and lower costs.”
 
Fabian Vandenreydt, Global Head of Securities, Innotribe and the SWIFT Institute, SWIFT, adds: “This report indicates the strong focus of the industry towards a more efficient and reliable process in the funds industry. The decrease of FTP usage and manual processing versus adoption of ISO standards keeps on drawing the trends towards automation and cost reduction. SWIFT and EFAMA will pursue their efforts to lower the manual process as much as possible and support the industry where and when needed.”

You can read the report in the following link.

Funds Processing Rates Reach New Levels of Automation

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The European Fund and Asset Management Association (EFAMA) has published in cooperation with SWIFT a new report on the evolution of automation and standardisation rates of fund orders received by transfer agents (TAs) in the cross-border fund centres of Luxembourg and Ireland in 2015.

The report is an on-going campaign by EFAMA and SWIFT to highlight the advancement of automation and standardisation rates of orders of cross-border funds. 29 TAs from Ireland and Luxembourg participated in this survey.

The report highlights include that torder volumesincreased by 11% in 2015, bringing the total volume processed by the 29 survey participants to 34.1 million orders last year.

The total automation rate of processed orders of cross-border funds reached 85.4% in the last quarter of 2015, which represents an increase of 2.8 percentage points (p.p.) compared to the fourth quarter of 2014. The use of ISO messaging standards rose by 1.8 p.p. to 51.2%, while the use of manual processes dropped to 14.6% (-2.8 p.p.) in the same time period.

The total automation rate of orders processed by Luxembourg TAs reached 82.9% in the last quarter of 2015 compared to 81.3% in the last quarter of 2014. The ISO automation rate increased from 57.9% in Q4 2014 to 65% in Q4 2015, while the use of proprietary ftp decreased from 23.4% in Q4 2014 to 17.9% in Q4 2015.

The total automation rate of orders processed by Irish TAs increased to 89.7% in the fourth quarter of 2015, from 85.6% in the fourth quarter of 2014. The use of manual processes falls down to 10.3% in Q4 2015 compared to 14.4% in Q4 2014.

Peter De Proft, EFAMA Director General, notes: “The continuous progress towards ISO adoption and the impressive 15% drop in manual processing of funds orders confirm that the European investment funds industry continued to improve the efficiency of its back-office operations in 2015. This is tangible proof of the industry’s commitment to reduce operational risks and to ensure ever-improving services for its clients.”

Fabian Vandenreydt, Global Head of Securities, Innotribe and the SWIFT Institute, SWIFT, adds: “Back in 2009, when we launched the first EFAMA-SWIFT report, we, together as an industry, had established an objective to reach 80% of automated cross-border fund orders, which seemed realistic, yet ambitious.

Today, with more than 85% of cross-border funds orders automated, the ongoing progress of the transfer agent communities of Luxembourg and Ireland is a testament to the commitment of these markets to become more efficient for the benefit of its clients, and to alleviate the high costs and risks associated with manual processing. Along with the substantial increase of funds order volumes (which progressed by 11% compared to 2014), it is also encouraging to note that, when TAs are setting up new links with new order givers, ISO adoption is, more than ever, the first choice.

With EFAMA’s recommendation of a single ISO standard to be used in the funds industry, we are clearly moving in the right direction, and now is the opportunity to focus on the potential next buckets of automation, namely for transfers and account openings, where we see the biggest potential for standardisation.”

Funds Processing Rates Reach New Levels of Automation

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The European Fund and Asset Management Association (EFAMA) today published in cooperation with SWIFT, a new report on the evolution of automation and standardisation rates of fund orders received by transfer agents (TAs) in the cross-border fund centres of Luxembourg and Ireland in 2014.

The report confirms that the automation rate and the use of the ISO standards in the fund industry increased to 82.6% (from 79.8% in December 2013), reaching a new all-time high.

The report is part of an on-going campaign by EFAMA and SWIFT to highlight the advancement of automation and standardisation rates of orders of cross-border funds. 29 TAs from Ireland and Luxembourg participated in this survey.

The total automation rate of processed orders of cross-border funds reached 82.6% in the last quarter of 2014, which represents an increase of 2.8 percentage points (p.p.) compared to the fourth quarter of 2013. The use of ISO messaging standards rose by 4.5 p.p., while manual processes and FTP rates dropped to 17.4% (-2.8 p.p.) and 33.2% (-1.7 p.p.) respectively, in the same time period.

The total automation rate of orders processed by Luxembourg TAs reached 81.3% during Q4 2014, compared to 76.6% in Q4 2013.The ISO automation rate remains stable at 57.9% in Q4 2014. The rate of proprietary FTP increased to 23.4% against 18.8% in Q4 2013, while manual orders decreased to 18.7% against 23.4% in Q4 2013.

The total automation rate of orders processed by Irish TAs remains stable with 85.6% in Q4 2014 compared to Q4 2013.

Peter De Proft, EFAMA Director General, says: “As we have seen in previous years, the funds industry continues to move towards more automation and standardization in the processing of cross-border fund orders.  By relying less on manual processing, fund managers thus increase the efficiency of their operations, which helps reduce their overall costs and increases the potential return of their funds, and is a very positive development.”

Fabian Vandenreydt, Head of Markets Management, Innotribe and the SWIFT Institute, SWIFT, adds: “The industry is making great strides towards full automation of the funds order process.  Similar to other business areas, the adoption of standards and the move towards automation significantly reduces the costs and risks commonly associated with manual processing.  It is great to see comparable progress in the funds industry, particularly the work SWIFT has done in collaboration with EFAMA, which is clearly paving the way to more efficient back office operations across the funds distribution process.”

Eaton Vance Launches a Multi-Asset Credit Fund

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Eaton Vance lanza una estrategia multiactivo de crédito
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Giuseppe Milo. Eaton Vance Launches a Multi-Asset Credit Fund

Eaton Vance Management Limited. (EVMI), a subsidiary of Eaton Vance Management, today announced the launch of Eaton Vance (Ireland) Multi-Asset Credit Fund, a sub-fund of Eaton Vance Institutional Funds Plc, which is available to investors in the UK and Ireland, with forthcoming registration in other jurisdictions. 

In an uncertain market for traditional core fixed income asset class returns, this strategy seeks to provide investors with broad exposure to the global sub- investment grade credit markets, principally through higher yielding credit assets including global high yield bonds and floating-rate loans. Up to 40% of the fund’s assets may be allocated to opportunistic and risk-reducing fixed income asset classes. The strategy will also be available to investors as a customisable segregated mandate.

The Fund’s co-portfolio managers are Jeffrey Mueller, Vice President, Justin Bourgette, CFA, Vice President, and John Redding, Vice President. The Fund will be managed in a way that draws on Eaton Vance’s breadth of investment expertise and capabilities, based on the ‘intelligent integration’ of top-down and bottom-up inputs to optimise portfolio construction.

Payson Swaffield, Chief Income Investment Officer of Eaton Vance Management, commented: “Eaton Vance is an experienced manager of investments across the global credit spectrum. Bringing our multi-asset Credit capability to investors in a QIAIF structure is a natural evolution of our market leadership position in leveraged credit. I am confident that the combination of Jeff, Justin and John will allow us to provide an attractive strategy for investors seeking higher yields and strong, sustainable returns.”

The Fund is a regulated, Irish domiciled qualifying investor alternative investment fund (“QIAIF”) and complies with the Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive (“AIFMD”).

Deloitte Acquires Global Asset Management Strategy Consultant Casey Quirk

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Deloitte Acquires Global Asset Management Strategy Consultant Casey Quirk
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto: Steven Lee. Deloitte compra Casey Quirk, la consultora de gestión estratégica de activos a nivel global

Deloitte announced that it has acquired substantially all the assets of Casey Quirk, the world’s largest strategy consultancy devoted exclusively to serving the asset management industry. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

The move combines the strengths and global reach of Deloitte, a leader in business transformation ranked number one in global strategy and operations consulting, with Casey Quirk, a leader in asset management strategy that has served a majority of the world’s 50 largest asset managers. The Casey Quirk partners and existing team will transition to Deloitte and will now operate under the “Casey Quirk by Deloitte” brand.

“This combination brings together capabilities to help our clients drive transformational change across their organizations. Together, we are positioned to work with our clients in responding to the range of quickly emerging, evolving and complex challenges, including globalization, innovation, competition and, most importantly, shifts in investor requirements,” commented Joe Guastella, US financial services consulting leader, Deloitte Consulting LLP.

Additional challenges such as fee pressure, industry consolidation, technology disruption, increased regulation, and the rise of individual investors are creating unprecedented change in the global asset management industry. With an array of consulting services from strategy formulation through operational execution, Casey Quirk by Deloitte will offer one of the most complete sets of end-to-end consulting services available to asset management organizations.

“Casey Quirk is joining forces with Deloitte to broaden our global financial services footprint and deliver differentiated execution capabilities for our clients,” said Kevin P. Quirk, chairman, Casey Quirk. “This combination provides an unparalleled value proposition to the marketplace.”

“Casey Quirk has more than doubled its staff in the past three years and opened offices in Hong Kong and New York. Joining Deloitte is an optimal choice to help us maintain our tremendous growth,” said Yariv Itah, managing partner, Casey Quirk. “We also believe this creates a superior career platform for our talented team.”

“This is the latest in a string of strategic acquisitions Deloitte Consulting has made in recent years to continue helping our clients solve their most complex business challenges,” said Janet Foutty, chairman and CEO, Deloitte Consulting LLP. “Casey Quirk’s deep strategy expertise, leading research and recognized talent in the asset management consulting space will bring even more value to the trusted relationships Deloitte has with our financial services clients.”

European Investors Moved Away from Equities in May

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European Investors Moved Away from Equities in May
Foto: Peter-Ashley. Los inversores europeos se alejaron de la renta variable durante mayo

According to Detlef Glow, Head of EMEA research at Lipper, assets under management in the European mutual fund industry  enjoyed net inflows of €1.3 bn into long-term mutual funds during May.

The single fund markets with the highest net inflows for May were Germany (+€1.9 bn), Switzerland (+€1.1 bn), Norway (+€0.8 bn), and the United Kingdom (+€0.6 bn). Meanwhile, Belgium was the single market with the highest net outflows (-€2.7 bn), bettered somewhat by the Netherlands (-€1.4 bn) and Luxembourg (-€1.2 bn).

Bond EUR Corporates (+€2.0 bn) was once again the best selling sector among long-term funds.

In terms of asset types, and according to Glow, “it seemed that European investors continued in a risk-off mode, selling risky assets,” equity funds (-€10.3 bn) were once again the ones with the highest net outflows in Europe, bettered by “other” funds (-€0.2 bn) and mixed-asset products (-€0.2 bn). In contrast, bond funds (+€7.8 bn) were the best selling asset type for May, followed by alternative UCITS (+€2.5 bn), real estate products (+€0.9 bn), and commodity funds (+€0.8 bn).

JP Morgan, with net sales of €4.8 bn, was the best selling fund promoter for May overall, ahead of BlackRock (+€4.3 bn) and Aviva (+€3.5 bn).

Eastspring Investments-Developed and Emerging Asia Eq E (+€2.1 bn) was the best selling individual long-term fund for May.

For further details you can follow this link.

Robo-advisors Are To Disrupt the Asset Management Industry in Asia

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Asian asset managers are increasingly entering into strategic partnerships with other managers in the region as they look for various business strategies which could potentially enhance their revenue streams as cost pressures rise and competition stiffens.

This is one of the key findings of Cerulli Associates’ newly-released report, Asian Distribution Dynamics 2016: Responding to an Evolving Landscape.

Excluding Hong Kong and Singapore, most Asian markets are still inaccessible to foreign managers, with some markets, such as Taiwan and Korea, showing an increase in home bias. “An absence of distribution partners and lack of brand recognition are problems new entrants have to contend with and partnering with a local partner is seen as the best way to raise assets without a large initial investment,” says Shu Mei Chua, an associate director at Cerulli, who led the report.

She notes that strategic pacts are largely aimed at three key areas: asset growth potential, product development, and distribution dynamics.

E Fund Management entered into a partnership with Danske Capital to “jointly design and promote” investments. Korea’s Samsung Asset Management and its sister company, Samsung Securities, together have four pacts with other Asian or global managers and serve as the prime example to either co-develop products or to bring recognizable global managers to Korean shores.

“While most partnerships entered into so far are targeting joint product developments, we expect strategic partnerships to get more creative in light of a tighter regulatory environment and the rise of financial technology,” Chua adds.

Many asset managers are looking to alternative methods of distribution in the region dominated by brokerages and banks. Many have come to the conclusion that digital channels are set to play a big part in the next stage of distribution.

In fact, digital marketing has already made its headway in key markets in the region. Managers in China and India had the largest budget allocations to digital marketing among Asian markets and are using various digital tools to reach end investors.

“For instance, the use of messaging app WeChat to promote funds and provide investor education is considered indispensable for managers looking to gain customers in China,” notes Ivan Han, a senior analyst with Cerulli.

He adds that robo-advisors are possibly on the cusp of disrupting the asset management industry in Asia in a positive way by forcing the industry to consider how to offer inexpensive, scalable advice to the majority of investors who are often ignored because they have smaller accounts.

“Robo-advisory is more of a distribution story in that it allows managers to tap capital from investors who had been reluctant to invest in mutual funds due to a lack of advice,” Han says.