On December 4th, a constitutional referendum is to be held in Italy to vote on amending the Italian constitution. The referendum poses the question:
Do you approve the constitutional bill concerning the dispositions to overcome the perfect bicameralism, the reduction of the number of members of the Parliament, the restraint of the institutions’ operating costs, the abolition of CNEL and the revision of Titolo V of the 2nd part of the Constitution, which was approved by the Parliament and published on the Gazzetta Ufficiale n. 88, on April 15, 2016?
According to Columbia Threadneedle’s Philip Dicken and Andrea Carzana, over the longer term, reform in Italy is critical for increased economic growth and the ultimate well-being of the Italian people, but it is also important to the economy of Europe and the political stability of the EU.
Columbia Threadneedle believes investors should be very aware of the political risks as, in many parts of Europe they see dissatisfaction with globalisation, the rise of populism (and in some cases nationalism) and a frustration with incumbent politicians. Political risk is on the rise and investors need to get used to it they state. “Italy has many fine attributes but has struggled with low growth and political instability. Indeed, Renzi is the third Prime Minister in four years and his government is the 63rd in the past 70 years. If the referendum succeeds the hope is that Italy will have more stability in its political structure, opening the way to economic reforms which could allow the government to tackle several serious structural issues hindering economic growth.”
There are three areas of the economy which they believe need to be addressed:
Labour and demographics – an ageing population with high unemployment amongst the young.
Productivity – persistently low growth and productivity.
Debt and leverage – high public sector debt and a poorly capitalised banking system, but a wealthy population.
They believe the consequences are:
YES VOTE
We believe that this will be received positively by markets, at least in the short term. Renzi would have a mandate for his reforms and would probably seek to amend the Italicum law to head off a possible Five Star win in the expected 2018 general election.
However, if Renzi is not able the change the Italicum law and Five Star continue to gain in popularity from their around 30% in the polls today, then there is an increased risk of a populist, anti-EU, anti-euro government in 2018.
NO VOTE
This would be negatively received in the short term, in our view, but the longer-term impact would be less clear.
Renzi could resign and a technocratic government be formed by the President, Sergio Mattarella. The new PM could again be Renzi who would continue to argue for reform, not least because the Italicum law would be neutered by the unreformed Senate retaining its power.
A technocratic government could be led by others or a general election could be called, both leading to periods of uncertainty.
Or, Renzi may not resign as threatened and simply continue as PM, albeit with reduced political capital.
Wikimedia CommonsFoto: Zimbres. Shenzhen—China's Silicon Valley
Despite all the negatives we hear about the hollowing out of Shenzhen as a manufacturing base—either overseas or to inland urban areas, the city continues to move up the value chain into design, branding, marketing and more says Jeremy Sutch, Senior Research Analyst at Matthews Asia. Who points as an example, the development of drones, a newer and now-booming industry.
Back in the late 1990s, Shenzhen still had a reputation for making fake DVDs, cheap clothes and copycat toys. Eventually, it morphed into the tech hardware capital of the world. And in the past decade or so, Shenzhen has earned its status as the birthplace for certain popularly emerging consumer products. It churns out more than 90% of the world’s e-cigarettes and over 70% of the world’s consumer drones.
So what is it that has enabled Shenzhen—a sleepy fishing village just 30 years ago—to become the “Silicon Valley of China,” now with a population of roughly 12 million? About seven years ago, Shenzhen officials began designating sectors like information technology, the internet, biotechnology and renewables as “strategic industries.” These industries received financial support of up to about US$77 million (RMB500 million), and contributed 40% of the city’s GDP in 2015. (GDP growth in 2015 was a strong 8.9%).
Once a place for transients trying to turn a quick profit, Shenzhen has grown more welcoming. According to Matthews Asia, it is now easier to get work and residential permits, and Shenzhen is often said to be a more meritocratic society where political relationships are less critical—unlike cities where state-owned industries dominate.
Sutch believes China’s drone makers have credited supportive local government policies. In March of this year, the city earmarked billions to attract world-class talent, including national and foreign scientists and academics, to drive innovation. Some of the incentives include housing subsidies for job seekers who hold higher educational degrees. In 2015, R&D accounted for 4.05% of Shenzhen’s economy. This compares with an estimated 1.98% for the whole of China; 2.76% for the U.S. and 4.04% for South Korea, respectively, according a 2016 study by the Industrial Research Institute.
The two (interconnected) factors of funding and talent pool alone do not explain Shenzhen’s success says the specialist adding that “the balance of elements that create its unique ecosystem are its supply chain, manufacturing capability and transport infrastructure.” The city boasts easy and cheap access to every conceivable component—circuit boards, chips, LEDs, lithium batteries, sensors, screws—enabling significantly faster times for production and testing of prototypes, to mass production (and delivery). The latter is abetted by a large number of specialized factories. Shenzhen, being in close proximity to Dongguan where labor is both abundant and skilled, also benefits from efficient air and sea transport links.
However he points out that, like in any environment where the focus is on innovation and speed-to-market, hiccups do happen. And Shenzhen has not been immune. One need look no further than last year’s arrival on the global consumer scene of the “hover board.” These self-balancing scooters—a large proportion of which were churned out of factories in and around Shenzhen—quickly got attention for the wrong reason; namely explosions. “Whilst a setback for the city’s name, innovation and future successes will continue to flow from the city. We may well, for instance, be on the cusp of drones—aided by rising brand strength, and constantly improving product functionality and ease-of-use—moving from the niche hobbyist market to mainstream consumer (not to mention commercial) market. Christmas shoppers beware!” Sutch concludes.
According to Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income, investing in flexible fixed income strategies has never made more sense than it does in the present environment. In a world in which developed market interest rates are extraordinarily low or even negative, and where monetary policy regimes diverge across the globe, Rieder believes that maintaining investment flexibility is vital to successfully navigating markets. In an interview with Funds Society, he talks about the lack of utility of the extraordinarily low interest rate levels for stimulating real economic growth, and the anticipation of a rate hike as the Fed to continue its path of slow interest rate normalization. Hereunder, his answers:
What does the most recent payroll growth slowdown mean for the timing of an interest rate hike?
Without question, payrolls growth in recent months has slowed from its extraordinary pace of recent years, but in our view, that has more to do with the economy’s approach toward full employment and the diminished ranks of qualified applicants searching for positions. Interestingly, this has also resulted in the improvement of wage levels, which are now running at an impressive 2.8% year-over-year, which is a clear representation of growing tightness in the labor markets. Overall, payrolls are fairly strong for this stage in the economic cycle, so with firming wages, and the modest increase in inflation that should follow, we think the Fed should be able to continue on its path of slow interest rate normalization.
Do you think a December rate hike is imminent and what would that mean for the broader economic outlook?
Understandably, the Fed held off from raising policy rates at its recent meeting, coming nearly a week before a highly contested general election in the U.S., but we do anticipate the Committee will make a quarter-point move in December. Still, we believe bond markets have largely priced in such a move, and the gradual rise in interest rates should have only a modest impact on the overall economic outlook. Indeed, as we have argued many times in the past, the utility of extraordinarily low interest rate levels has long since passed in stimulating real economic growth and for some time now has solely been influencing the financial economy as a price-supporting mechanism.
Does a flexible fixed income strategy still make sense in today’s environment?
In our view, flexible fixed income strategies have never made more sense than they do in the present environment. Indeed, we live in a world in which developed market interest rates are extraordinarily low (and in some cases, are negative), monetary policy regimes are continuing to diverge across the globe, a monetary-to-fiscal policy transition is potentially in the cards, and the inflation outlook is evolving globally. And that is to say nothing of the political and event risks that abound in the world today, or the fact that the sources of global growth are rapidly shifting by region. In this environment, we believe that maintaining investment flexibility is vital to successfully navigating markets, and within that framework, the critical importance of “globalizing” ones’ view of fixed income cannot be overstated.
What elements differentiate the BGF Fixed Income Global Opportunities Fund’s strategy from its peers?
For this strategy, we focus on generating consistent, attractive risk-adjusted returns through various market cycles while maintaining the risk profile of traditional fixed income investments. To do this, we invest in a diversified portfolio of beta and alpha sources, and aims to lower absolute risk while achieving attractive risk-adjusted returns. The fund employs BlackRock’s best ideas to identify attractive opportunities across global fixed income markets and is supported by the firm’s vast risk management platform and resources.
Fabio Balboni, European Economist at HSBC and his team expect the ECB to announce another six-month extension of QE at EUR80bn per month at its 8 December meeting. He believes that due to the recent rise in bond yields, this may only require increasing to 50% (from 33%) the limit for bonds without Collective Action Clauses (CACs). Nothing is certain, however, and there is a risk the ECB opts to wait a few months before extending, announces a shorter extension, or opts for another form of monetary stimulus altogether, although they think this is unlikely.
In their view, the underlying inflation situation warrants further easing. Despite a waning drag from energy prices, core and services inflation remain muted and they see few signs of emerging pressures in the key drivers of inflation (wages, pricing behaviour of firms). “We think financial markets got carried away about the European re-inflationary consequences of the US election result, as reflected by the rise in 5yr-5yr forward eurozone inflation swap rates.” He notes.
He believes though, that the ECB will be reluctant to withdraw the monetary stimulus before it sees signs of domestic inflation emerging in the eurozone and will be wary of repeating its 2011 mistake, when it tightened prematurely. Recent speeches, including by ECB head Mario Draghi, have hinted at possibly changing the policy mix, to achieve the most effective stimulus. “But we think the ECB currently has little alternative to QE. Deeper negative rates have potential negative implications for banks’ profitability. Bolder measures, like purchasing equities or NPLs (to spur bank lending) are unlikely at this stage.”
Although the marginal benefits of QE on financial conditions might be waning, it still plays a crucial role supporting fiscal policy via lower government bond yields. And calls for more outright fiscal expansion from the ECB and the European Commission have fallen on deaf ears, particularly in Germany where fiscal headroom exists.
The ECB will publish new forecasts in December. Not much has changed on the economic front since the last meeting, so they don’t expect any major revision to its growth and inflation forecasts. The ECB will, however, present for the first time its forecast for 2019, which Balboni suspects will be very close to 2% for inflation.
“The ECB might also address the question of tapering, using its new 2019 forecast as a hook to say how it intends to unwind QE. However, it’s unlikely they will want to tie their hands on a set date for tapering and the eventual exit should be well flagged.” He concludes.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto: M M . China: cautela en el futuro a corto plazo
Taiwanese and Korean insurance companies are currently the most active in overseas investments among insurers in Asia ex-Japan, but it is Chinese insurers that outsource the most assets. Cerulli Associates, a global research and consulting firm, estimates that Chinese insurers outsourced US$228.1 billion in life insurance assets in 2015, up by 38.6% over 2014 and nearly double the amount in 2011.
This is one of the key findings in Cerulli’s newly released Asian Insurance Industry 2016 report. Though most of these outsourced assets are invested domestically, more assets are expected to flow overseas as Chinese insurers see a growing need for better returns outside their domestic market to help meet their liabilities. China’s life insurers have seen their liabilities rise as they tried to compete with providers of popular wealth management products by offering policies with attractive return rates, such as universal life. Total insurance liabilities in the country stood at US$1.7 trillion in 2015, up by 44.5% from 2013.
Chinese insurers also face a growing concern over the potential impact of lower interest rates, with the People’s Bank of China‘s base rate for one-year loans now at 4.35% and its benchmark rate at 1.5%. With more than 21% of total insurance assets invested in deposits alone at end-2015, insurers derive an important portion of their investment income from the interest earnings of these investments. A fall in interest rates will inevitably have an impact on their investment income and will push insurers to deploy assets more efficiently by diversifying their sources of returns, including overseas.
This is something Cerulli has already seen happening. Looking at the Chinese insurance industry’s total investment portfolio, the proportion of assets in bank deposits declined from 27.1% in 2014 to 18.8% in June 2016. On the other hand, investments in the “others” category–which includes listed and unlisted long-term equity investments, bank wealth management products, trusts, private equity, venture capital, loans, and real estate–rose from 23.7% in 2014 to 34.2% in June 2016.
With the general lack of overseas investment experience and expertise among Chinese insurers, Cerulli expects many of them to work with foreign managers on offshore allocation. “There will particularly be opportunity among small and mid-sized players as they follow the lead of large insurers and rely on third parties. Unlike their larger counterparts, most of these players don’t have asset management subsidiaries in China or Hong Kong to help them with their investments,” says Manuelita Contreras, associate director at Cerulli, who led the report.
Supporting this outlook is the increasing number of insurers with regulatory approval to invest overseas. “Nine life and non-life companies received the green light to invest overseas in 2015 through the external manager route, up from only four in 2014. As of July 2016, 15 insurers have the approval to invest overseas through this route,” says Rui Ming Tay, analyst at Cerulli, who co-led the report.
“Through the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) scheme, some of the private insurers are expected to use their overseas investment quotas to outsource assets, potentially for global fixed-income and multi-asset strategies,” says Kangting Ye, analyst at Cerulli, who covers the Chinese insurance market. There were 40 approved QDII insurers as of June 2016.
Andreas Markwalder will be appointed Country Head of Switzerland at Schroders, effective on 3 January 2017, bringing more than 22 years of industry experience to the role.
Andreas joins Schroders from GastroSocial, the largest Swiss pensions fund in terms of members with assets under management of CHF 6.3 billion. Prior to becoming CEO, he was Head of Investments for 13 years. Andreas sits on a range of boards of investment funds and is the founder of AFIAA, a global property fund with over 40 Swiss pension funds invested and assets under management of CHF 1.4bn.
Andreas Markwalder will be based in Zurich and will report to John Troiano, Global Head of Distribution. He succeeds Stephen Mills who has been in the Country Head role since the 1990s.
Stephen Mills will take on a new senior role within Schroders. He will become Chairman of Schroder Investment Management, continue on the board of Secquaero Advisers and take on a number of additional internal board responsibilities across Europe. He will lead our relationships with the largest Swiss distributors and work to develop our growing private asset business across Europe. Mills will report to John Troiano, Global Head of Distribution.
Further Schroders is also appointing Serge Ledermann, until recently Bank J. Safra Sarasin’s Head of Asset Management Switzerland, as Deputy Chairman on the Board of Schroder Investment Management AG Board.
John Troiano, Global Head of Distribution at Schroders, said:”We welcome Andreas to Schroders as Country Head of our Swiss business. The appointment of an executive with Andrea’s experience and deep financial industry knowledge highlights our continued commitment to growth in Switzerland. Stephen has built and led our successful and highly-regarded Swiss business for the last 33 years. His extensive knowledge, skills and experience within the firm, specifically in the area of managing relationships with large Swiss distributors, are highly valued.”
Stephen Mills, newly appointed Chairman of the Board of Schroder Investment Management (Switzerland) AG, said: “I am delighted that Andreas Markwalder will be joining Schroders. Andreas brings with him a wealth of knowledge and experience as a pension fund manager and innovator. I am also pleased to welcome Serge Ledermann to the Board of Schroder Investment Management (Switzerland) AG. With 30 years of experience in asset management and of the Swiss institutional business, Serge Lederman brings unparalleled expertise. We look forward to working with them both.”
Andreas Markwalder, newly appointed Country Head of Switzerland at Schroders, said: “During my time as CEO and Head of Investments at GastroSocial, l had the opportunity to witness first hand the quality and professionalism of Schroders. I am delighted to join the firm as the new Country Head of Switzerland and look forward to developing the business further.”
Foto: Andy
. Las políticas de Trump podrían afectar al mercado de viviendas en 2017
In 2017, recent trends will reverse course as the housing market’s economic recovery enters a new stage. According to Zillow, renting will become more affordable, more Americans will drive to work, and the homeownership rate will bounce back from historical lows. Millennials will play a significant role in increasing the homeownership rate. Nearly half of all buyers in 2016 were first-time buyers, and millennials made up over half of this group of buyers.
The 2017 real estate portal´s predictions include:
Cities will focus on denser development of smaller homes close to public transit and urban centers.
More millennials will become homeowners, driving up the homeownership rate. Millennials are also more racially diverse, so more homeowners will be people of color, reflecting the changing demographics of the United States.
Rental affordability will improve as incomes rise and growth in rents slows.
Buyers of new homes will have to spend more as builders cover the cost of rising construction wages, driven even higher in 2017 by continued labor shortages, which could be worsened by tougher immigration policies under President-elect Trump.
The percentage of people who drive to work will rise for the first time in a decade as homeowners move further into the suburbs seeking affordable housing – putting them further from adequate public transit options.
Home values will grow 3.6 percent in 2017, according to more than 100 economic and housing experts surveyed in the latest Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey. National home values have risen 4.8 percent so far in 2016.
“There are pros and cons to both existing homes and new construction, and the choice for home buyers can often be difficult. For those considering new construction in 2017, it’s worth considering the added cost that may come amidst ongoing construction labor shortages that could get worse if President-elect Trump follows through on his hard-line stances on immigration and immigrant labor. A shortage of construction workers as a result may force builders to pay higher wages, costs which are likely to get passed on to buyers in the form of higher new home prices,” says Dr. Svenja Gudell, Chief Economist, Zillow.
“Those looking for more affordable housing options will be pushed to areas farther away from good transit options, in turn leading more Americans to drive to work,” he adds. “Renters should have an easier time in 2017. Income growth and slowing rent appreciation will combine to make renting more affordable than it has been for the past two years.”
Mar Hernández - Courtesy photo. Russell Reynolds Associates Hires Mar Hernández
Russell Reynolds Associates yesterday announced that Mar Hernández has joined the firm’s new Miami office as a consultant in the Financial Services practice. Mar advises and recruits C-suite level executives for clients in global private wealth management, asset management, private equity, insurance and fintech. She also works with clients across a range of industries to build and develop C-suite leadership at their regional headquarters based in Florida
“Mar brings industry and analytical expertise to conduct senior-level searches for a wide range of strategic and functional roles,” said Constantine Alexandrakis, leader of Russell Reynolds Associates’ operations in the United States. “We are excited to have Mar join our Miami office. Her deep connections in the region and her international work experience augment our ability to assist clients and continue our firm’s growth trajectory.”
Prior to joining the firm, Mar spent five years with a boutique search firm in Miami –Transearch– as a senior client partner. Earlier, she was Global Sales & Marketing Director, BPO at Amicorp Group. During her time there, she worked in Barcelona and Athens and supervised the opening of a new center in Pretoria, South Africa. Earlier in her career, Mar worked for EDS, TeleTech and advertising roles at companies such as McCann (in Barcelona and Miami) and Saatchi & Saatchi (in Barcelona).
Mar earned a B.A. in Communications Science from the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and an M.A. in Business Administration from the Escuela Superior de Administracion de Empresas.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto: Randy Heinitz
. Changing Investor Preferences are Pressuring Hedge Funds
Hedge fund managers are feeling the pressure from changing investor demands and the managers that adapt accordingly and timely will be the most successful in achieving growth, according to the EY 2016 Global Hedge Fund and Investor Survey: Will adapting to today’s evolving demands help you stand out tomorrow?
The 10th annual survey found that hedge fund growth has slowed for a variety of reasons – the abundance of low fee passive investment options, lackluster hedge fund performance and cost concerns. In 2016, the proportion of North American investors that said they were reducing allocations to hedge funds exceeded the proportion that were increasing for the first time since the financial crisis of 2008.
Investors have more options than ever within the alternatives marketplace and are allocating funds to those managers that have a unique offering that is satisfying a specific need. Therefore, hedge fund managers must be at the forefront of actively listening to their investors to keep pace, or else be left behind, the report finds.
Michael Serota, EY Global Leader, Hedge Fund Services, says: “Growth is the industry’s top priority, but managers are changing the strategies employed to achieve it. While we find the largest managers pursuing several growth strategies, the smaller managers are more narrowly focused, seeking to expand investor bases within their home markets. Amidst today’s challenging environment, it is imperative for managers of all sizes to identify the needs of their clients and align product offerings to their demands.”
Other key findings include:
Hedge fund managers focus on asset growth to counter reduced inflows
As fee pressures increase, managers need to innovate and optimize processes to cut costs
Prime brokerages are putting pressure on hedge funds to evolve their relationships
Managers are focused on developing their talent management programs, which investors see as increasingly important
Foto: Henri Bergius
. Funds Society lanza la encuesta sobre utilización de ETFs para inversores profesionales en el mercado de no-residentes
Since their introduction two decades ago, ETFs have been extremely successful, growing far beyond their initial function of tracking large liquid indices in developed markets. Globally, ETFs hold US$3.38tr in assets, having come a long way from the US$79bn they held in the year 2000 (according to BlackRock’s Global ETP Landscape, September 2016)
Funds Society would like to know if, how, and when the international professional investors are using ETFs.
Responses from this will help us better understand attitudes and usage of ETFs, and share the findings of a growing investment tool with the international wealth and asset management community.
We kindly ask you to take some time in answering this survey, which you can access through this link. We will share its findings in a series of articles in Funds Society and publish a brochure summarizing our results.
To make this survey even more appealing… we are raffling a set of Oculus Rift Virtual Reality glasses among all the qualifying respondents who complete the survey.
We look forward to your participation in the survey.
