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UBS Wealth Management´s Ideas for 2017: US and Emerging Markets Equity and US Treasuries Hedged Against Inflation

UBS Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office (CIO) predicts a polarized political world in 2017. Global gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to rise to 3.5% from 3.1% this year as US growth improves, despite the ongoing slowdown in China. With elections set for the Netherlands, France and Germany, investors will need to be conscious of increased post-Brexit division in Europe.

In the US, CIO expects the Federal Reserve to hike rates once in December and twice in 2017, but new fiscal stimulus should support growth, and inflation is likely to rise more than rates. In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank will probably start to taper quantitative easing. China will likely continue to manage its slowdown and let the USDCNY exchange rate depreciate to 7.0 in 12 months.

Mark Haefele, Global Chief Investment Officer at UBS Wealth Management, says: “We believe that central banks in the US and Europe will continue to err on the side of loose monetary policy. This means equities can remain supported, most notably in the US and emerging markets, and that investments with a decent yield will remain sought after. Investors will also need to consider means of hedging portfolios against rising inflation.”

The lessons of 2016

Don’t confuse a base case with a done deal. The past year has been ignominious for base case forecasts. Donald Trump won the US election. The UK voted to leave the EU. And central banks were forced to ease policy more than previously thought necessary.
Don’t panic. 2016 rewarded investors who remained calm amid uncertainty. The MSCI All-Country World Index dropped 13% early in the year on concerns over China, but bounced back by the end of March. After the Brexit vote, markets regained prior highs within three weeks.
Don’t underestimate central banks. Central bank policy surprises this year meant that even some negative-yielding assets provided positive returns.

Top 10 ideas for 2017

US equities. US earnings should grow 8% in 2017, supported by stabilizing oil prices, accommodative monetary policy and potential fiscal stimulus from the Trump administration.
Emerging market (EM) equities. A softer US dollar, low developed market (DM) interest rates and stabilizing GDP growth and commodity prices should continue to help EM stocks next year.
EM FX basket. Low DM rates help make high-yielding EM FX – real, rupee, ruble, & rand – attractive versus growth-sensitive DM peers – Australian & Canadian dollars & Swedish krone.
Asia Pacific real estate investment trusts should also benefit from low DM rates. Yields relative to government bonds are attractive compared with global averages.
Dividends and buybacks. With yields ultra-low in the Eurozone, Japan, and Switzerland, companies offering reliable incomes there have become even more appealing.
US senior loans. Senior loan yields offer a 4% pickup over short-maturity investment-grade corporate bonds, which is attractive even if default rates rise to long-term averages.
US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). CIO expects TIPS to benefit from higher wage growth, stabilizing oil prices, potential fiscal stimulus and a weaker US dollar.
Palladium and platinum. A pickup in industrial activity, political uncertainty and falling real interest rates should support both precious metals in 2017.
Alternatives. Traditional asset class returns are likely to be moderate in 2017. The uncorrelated exposure offered by hedge funds, private markets, and short-term investment opportunities will be more valuable than ever.
Sell high-grade bonds. Yields are negligible and risks are rising. Investors could consider replicating some of the asset class’s insurance features with other approaches, including systematic hedging and allocation strategies.

Recommended long-term investment themes for 2017 and beyond

Emerging market healthcare catch-up. In developing nations, spending on healthcare is far outpacing GDP growth, creating opportunities for companies and impact investors.
Energy efficiency. Governments are increasing incentives to cut down on carbon emissions and lower energy consumption. Such standards now cover 30% of the fuel used worldwide.
The education gap. Companies are helping to meet demand for higher education and training as governments struggle to keep up.

As investors look forward to 2017, CIO’s End Game offers the opportunity to play policymaker and see how solutions to the world’s economic issues can affect economies, markets, and portfolios. A recent survey of UBS’s Industry Leader Network of entrepreneur clients globally underscored the importance of policy in investment planning: 25% named the political landscape as the biggest potential change for their business in 2017, compared with 19% who cited technology upgrades, 12% who cited a different shift, and 44% who saw no change.

Caution Prevails Among Asian Investors

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Asia ex-Japan retail investors of all wealth tiers and age groups have become more conservative in 2016 compared to 2015, a survey conducted for the upcoming The Cerulli Report – Asian Wealth Management 2016 has shown.

Due to unsettled market conditions, Asia ex-Japan retail investors have become less patient in their investment horizons. The survey reveals the proportion of respondents with an investment horizon of three years or less rose 48.4% in 2016, from the 39.1% seen in the 2015 survey.

Generally, Asia ex-Japan investors have higher cash holdings in 2016 compared to last year. Except for India, investors in other Asian markets pared down their exposure to unit trusts, mutual funds, and exchange-traded funds.

Indian investors appeared to put more money in managed funds at the expense of investment properties. Hong Kong investors also reduced their exposure to investment properties as prices have been falling steeply in recent years, in favor of directly held bond investments.

Meanwhile, the shift from other asset classes to alternatives was muted for the past year. The survey reveals China is the only country that showed a more than one percentage-point uptick in holdings in the asset class between the 2015 and 2016 surveys.

However, Cerulli notes that alternative products in China are unlike those available in Singapore, for example. In China, alternatives tend to be in the form of structured products, whereas in Singapore, they are often more conventional liquid alternative funds. Cerulli notes that allocations to alternatives in Singapore remained steady over the period, helped by their availability to lower-wealth-tier investors.

Third, funds of funds managed by foreign asset managers have become popular in Taiwan, as they oversee seven of the top-10 funds of funds in terms of inflows year-to-date July 2016.

Evidently, Taiwanese investors are very keen for international exposure. Cerulli believes this provides foreign asset managers with the opportunity to leverage their reputation and expertise to make greater inroads onshore.

Meanwhile, as the FSC continues to tighten regulations on the offshore fund space, it will be harder for smaller, boutique foreign asset managers with niche investment products to enter the Taiwanese market.

This might have an impact on the diversity of products available to Taiwanese investors, and Cerulli notes that it will be ideal for offshore and onshore fund management to co-exist so as not to potentially stifle further product innovation.

Cosimo Marasciulo and Declan Murray Take Over New Roles at Pioneer after Le Saout and Chabaane Resign

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Cosimo Marasciulo y Declan Murray sustituyen a Tanguy Le Saout y Ali Chabaane tras su salida de Pioneer — Courtesy photos. Cosimo Marasciulo and Declan Murray Take Over New Roles at Pioneer after Le Saout and Chabaane Resign

Pioneer Investments announces that Tanguy Le Saout and Ali Chabaane have resigned from Pioneer with immediate effect, and on the 13th of December, 2016, they will consent to the orders of the Dublin High Court that effectively redress any advantage they might have obtained due to their conduct in seeking to launch a competing asset management business.

Le Saout and Chabaane were recently suspended following an internal investigation that showed they had acted against the commercial best interests of Pioneer. There has been no negative impact on client assets or accounts; no other investment professionals were involved; and no regulatory breaches occurred. Two other human resources employees, associated with the actions of Le Saout and Chabaane, will also consent to the orders of the Dublin High Court and have also resigned with immediate effect.

Giordano Lombardo, CEO and Group CIO of Pioneer Investments, commented “Any actions that violate our corporate values of trust, loyalty and teamwork must be responded to, irrespective of the circumstances. We have taken decisive action in this instance in order to protect our commercial best interests and have ensured that no client assets were adversely affected and no compliance breaches took place.”

Following the resignations, 15-year Pioneer veteran Cosimo Marasciulo currently Head of European Government Bonds, has been appointed as Head of European Fixed Income and Declan Murray, currently Global Chief of Staff for Investments at Pioneer, to provide guidance and leadership to the Portfolio Construction team. Pioneer expects a seamless transition under Marasciulo and Murray given the capability and experience of both individuals, as well as the strength and depth of the broader Pioneer European fixed-income team that encompasses a matrix structure of over 15 portfolio managers and 24 research analysts.

Amundi announced on Monday that it has signed a binding agreement with UniCredit in order to acquire Pioneer Investments for an all-cash consideration of €3,545 million.

Ezentis Renews a 120 Million Euro Contract in Chile

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Ezentis gana un contrato por importe de 120 millones de euros en Chile — Pixabay CC0 Public DomainPhoto: Freejpg. Ezentis Renews a 120 Million Euro Contract in Chile

Network services provider Ezentis announced the renewal of its contract to provide fixed network maintenance, operation and construction services for Telefonica Chile for 120 million euros (127 million dollars).

The contract is valid for three years, renewable for a further year said Ezentis in a statement filed with Spanish market regulator CNMV.

Ezentis Chile will provide services in the Eastern Metropolitan Regios as well as the cities of Puerto Montt, Rancagua, Talca, Linares, San Fernando, Temuco, Osorno, Valdivia and Curico, as well as in the Santiago Metropolitan region.

In 2016 the company acquired the 100% of its Chilean subsidiaries and energy company, Tecnet.

Pre-Retirees Emphasize Legacy Building Over Wealth Accumulation

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Many Americans aged 51 to 69 have a unique outlook on life, particularly when it comes to financial management and insurance, according to a new white paper from Chubb. While sharing several of the same interests and passions as younger cohorts, pre-retirees are more focused on legacy building than on wealth accumulation.

“The Pre-Retirees: Changing Minds, Changing Needs”white paper explores the implications this changing mindset may have for wealth advisors and insurance agents. It also outlines the property and personal liability issues impacting pre-retirees, including risks associated with home ownership, travel and passionate pursuits.

“Pre-retirees hold about $8 trillion in assets but, unlike younger generations, the majority are not focused on accumulating more wealth or property—rather, the emphasis is on what they have accomplished and the legacy they want to leave,” explains Alanna Johnson, Senior Vice President, Premier Practice Leader, Chubb Personal Risk Services. “This has implications for how pre-retirees and their advisors approach risk management. Wealth advisors and insurance agents can best serve this generation by understanding the client’s changing risk profile and designing a holistic risk management program that fits their lifestyle.”

According to the white paper, some of the most pressing legacy building-related risks pre-retirees and their advisors should be aware of include:

Serving on non-profit boards that might not offer sufficient D&O liability coverage in the event of a lawsuit
Emerging property risks as a result of relocation as more pre-retirees move or purchase property to be closer to their adult children and grandchildren
Unforeseen gaps in protection when pursuing sophisticated wealth transfer strategies, such as the establishment of a trust or LLC
Having sufficient medical evacuation coverage and travel insurance in the event of an accident or injury abroad.

Trump’s Election Sends Wealth Offshore

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Aumenta el número de estadounidenses que traslada su riqueza offshore desde las elecciones — CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto: -JvL- . Trump's Election Sends Wealth Offshore

Aliant, a Los Angeles-based international law firm, has observed a significant spike in the number of clients moving wealth outside the United States following the presidential election.

Donald Trump’s successful campaign clinched him the presidency, but his ‘America First’ foreign policy has raised concerns in the global community and among the affluent Americans. It is not unusual for governments with a nationalist bend to restrict the outflow of wealth.

Jacob Stein, one of Aliant’s partners in Los Angeles, chairs the firm’s private wealth and asset protection practice and represents a significant number of ultra-high net worth families, including Forbes 400 families. Stein states, “A lot of our wealthy U.S. clients have contacted us about moving wealth offshore. Some have expressed concerns about the uncertainty of the Trump presidency, the future of the U.S. economy, possible currency controls, prohibitions against foreign investment and currency risks. These clients are looking to diversify their wealth out of the U.S., access foreign markets, diversify their currency portfolios and set aside a secure box of wealth beyond the reach of the U.S. government.”

Analysts speculate that trade and investment will drop sharply because Trump’s proposed foreign policy will place a strain on alliances and trade agreements, leading to instability. An unstable economy makes investors fearful.

Stein confirms that the fear of economic and financial instability is the primary reason for the flight of capital out of the U.S. The firm is representing these clients to establish offshore wealth holding structures like foreign trusts and private foundations, to set up offshore bank and investment accounts and to ensure that all offshore structures are protected from creditors and anonymous to the greatest extent possible, without running afoul of the tax laws and government mandated disclosures.

You Cannot Keep Ignoring Emerging Markets

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According to Derek Silva, Portfolio Manager at Elvi, nothing scares more than the words “Emerging Markets corporate debt.” in his opinion, the list of frightening aspects is plentiful:

There’s Russia’s geopolitical issues.
Turkey’s coup attempt and downgrade to junk.
Brazilian corporate and political scandals.
President elect Trump’s Mexico obsession.

And then there’s China, for which CNBC and Bloomberg have a favourite term, “China worries”, to lazily explain any down day in global markets when they cannot find any other good reason.

So, EM corporate debt? Who buys this stuff? Well, if you ignore it, Silva believes you’re missing out on some excellent diversification and the best risk/return over the past 17 years. In fact, since 1999, EM IG has the best risk/return (in terms of Sharpe ratio) among all major fixed income asset classes. And EM HY outperforms its US and EU counterparts by the same measure.

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It is interesting that diversification is one of the basic principles of investing and yet many investors, both professionals and laypersons, only put tiny portions of their equity/fixed-income allocations into EM, despite EM growth rates being double those of DM economies. Only in this year’s extreme scenario of a global low rate environment have investors piled into EM equities and debt. But even after retail inflows into EM corporate debt reached record levels this summer, a recent survey by JP Morgan revealed most are still underweight in EM debt. To see the benefits of adding EM to an investor’s portfolio, since 1999, the addition of EM IG & HY (to US credit holdings) have provided an extra 0.5% of return for the same level of risk, and dramatically higher returns for smaller increases in risk.

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Silva believes that the EM market is more resilient to crises than US and European markets. Why? Because DM markets are priced to perfection and any scandal or crisis can have wide-ranging negative effects for the whole DM markets. Just look at the most recent example, with problems at one bank (Deutsche Bank) shaking the European markets and even spilling over into the US.

In contrast, “EM” is truly diversified by 5 vastly different regions (Asia, Latin America, Middle East, East Europe, Africa) and over 40 countries within the broad corporate bond benchmark (no country more than 10% weighting). These include even advanced (but not yet officially “DM”) economies like Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Korea, along with riskier “high beta” countries like Russia, Turkey and South Africa. But it is rare for any individual crisis to affect the EM credit market as a whole.

When Turkey’s credit rating was junked recently, only the Turkish credits were weak. Last year, during 2015’s corporate and political scandals in Brazil, it was mainly Brazil’s markets that suffered. The prior year, in 2014, when Russia was in conflict with Ukraine, it was mainly Russia and Ukraine that were affected. During all of these events, regions like Asia continued chugging along with attractive returns, immune to the crises in other EM regions. Even for a more wide-ranging crisis, like when many commodities prices fell dramatically in late 2015 and early 2016, some countries suffered (LatAm, Middle East), while some countries benefited (Asia).

In 2016, EM credit markets have been the best in global fixed-income, with double-digit returns, in spite of a myriad of negative factors:

still low commodity prices,
slow turnarounds in Brazil and Russia,
Turkish political problems and downgrade to junk,
South Africa’s impending downgrade to junk,
“China worries”,
the Trump-Mexico effect,
and the looming threat of a Fed rate hike.

“I believe this is a testament to EM’s superior diversification, growth and ability to derive attractive long-term risk/return performance. This is something that cannot be ignored for long.” He concludes.

PIMCO Announces Joint Venture with Solar Capital Partners

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PIMCO anuncia un acuerdo con Solar Capital Partners para continuar expandiendo su plataforma de crédito privado — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. PIMCO Announces Joint Venture with Solar Capital Partners

PIMCO has entered into a joint venture with Solar Capital Partners as the firm continues to develop and expand its private credit platform. Solar Capital Partners is an experienced and highly respected investor in private corporate credit with a successful 10-year track record of making private loans to corporate borrowers. The firm also has an extensive network of relationships with middle market borrowers and private equity sponsors.

This joint venture is the result of collaboration between PIMCO and Solar Capital Partners that began in 2014. Emmanuel Roman, PIMCO’s Chief Executive Officer said: “This joint venture is a continuation of the disciplined expansion of PIMCO’s alternatives’ strategies since 2004, where we have sought to capitalize on targeted market opportunities by leveraging PIMCO’s broad investment expertise and long-term performance focus.” Dan Ivascyn, Group Chief Investment Officer of PIMCO added: “We believe the combination of Solar Capital Partners’ proven credit underwriting and relationships matched with PIMCO’s global credit investment experience creates a superior ability in sourcing, evaluating, and underwriting private investments. We believe that private credit is an attractive super-secular opportunity.”

Michael Gross, Co-Founder of Solar Capital Partners, said: “We are excited about expanding our partnership with PIMCO and the depth of resources they can bring to our investment process. We believe that a well-managed, private direct corporate lending strategy has the potential to provide an attractive risk-adjusted yield premium relative to public credit investments.” “Together with the two publicly-traded Business Development Companies that we manage, Solar Capital Ltd. and Solar Senior Capital Ltd., our joint venture with PIMCO can provide us with significant scale to deliver full solutions to our clients,” said Bruce Spohler, Co-Founder of Solar Capital Partners.

Amundi Acquires Pioneer Paying €3,545 Million to Unicredit

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Amundi cierra la compra de Pioneer por 3.545 millones de euros — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Amundi Acquires Pioneer Paying €3,545 Million to Unicredit

Amundi announces that it has signed a binding agreement with UniCredit in order to acquire Pioneer Investments for an all-cash consideration of €3,545 million. As part of the transaction, Amundi will form a long term strategic partnership with UniCredit for the distribution of asset management products.

With €222 billion of assets under management, a majority being retail assets, Pioneer Investments has a highly complementary business and geographic profile with Amundi, the firms declare in the press release.

Eighth Largest Asset Manager Globally

This acquisition will strengthen significantly Amundi’s industrial project and reinforce its position as the European leader in asset management. It will create the 8th largest asset manager globally with €1,276 billion of assets under management, and will allow Amundi to reinforce its leadership in key European markets. “The combined entity will be number 1 in France, in a top 3 position in Italy and in Austria, and in a strong position in Germany.”

Italy will become Amundi’s second domestic market with €160bn under management, and Milan will become one of the Group’s investment “hubs”. The number of staff in Milan will therefore significantly increase.

The price of the acquisition is €3,545 million. The transaction will be financed by c.€1.5 billion of excess capital, a c.€1.4bn capital increase (rights issue), and c.€0.6bn of senior and subordinated debt. The rights issue will be launched in H1 2017 and will be underwritten by Crédit Agricole Group.

The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2017.  

Commenting on the acquisition, Xavier Musca, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Amundi, said  “This acquisition is fully in line with the selective acquisition strategy announced at the time of the IPO: Pioneer Investments will reinforce Amundi’s product expertise, broaden its distribution channels and networks, and generate significant synergies. It confirms Amundi’s position as a clear European leader in asset management, in terms of size and profitability.”  

Yves Perrier, Chief Executive Officer of Amundi, added “The acquisition of Pioneer Investments is a major step to anchor Amundi as the European leader in asset management. This acquisition will reinforce Amundi’s industrial model and will benefit our clients whilst creating significant value for our shareholders. Pioneer Investments is a world class asset manager that has a highly complementary business and geographic profile. At Amundi we are all excited to welcome soon our new colleagues who will join us in a leading asset management group fully dedicated to serve its retail and institutional clients.”

Pinebridge: “Catalysts For Change: Political Winds Are Shifting And Globalization Shifts Are Creating New Challenges And Opportunities”

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Pixabay CC0 Public DomainFree photos. Crédito corporativo europeo: perspectivas para el segundo semestre de 2018

PineBridge Investments a leading global multi-asset class investment manager, today released its 2017 Global Investment Outlook, a comprehensive analysis and preview across asset classes of the opportunities and risks for investors in the year ahead.

“We surveyed the state of the markets on behalf of multi-asset, fixed income, and equity investors around the world. What we found is that all of these markets are ripe for change – and the catalysts are everywhere,” said Greg Ehret, CEO of PineBridge. “Political winds are shifting across developed and emerging economies and globalization shifts are creating new challenges and opportunities. Investors will have to look within and across geographies, sectors, and asset classes to best position themselves for this new chapter. ”

The full version of the PineBridge 2017 Global Investment Outlook can be found at http://www.pinebridge.com/2017outlook.

Highlights from the 2017 Outlook are:

Economics: A Moment of Inflection

In 2017, investors will need to keep an eye on the rise of political risk in the developed world, particularly in the US and Europe, which could depress growth and raise market volatility. Markus Schomer, Chief Economist, is looking for a move in monetary policy away from excessive stimulus in the developed world and toward a more balanced stance that will gradually turn into policy normalization in the next few years.

“There should also be a gradual shift toward growing business investment – as long as interest rates remain low – instead of labor expenditures. Overall, the team expects a moderate reacceleration in global economic growth from the 3% average in the past two years to 3.4% in 2017 and 3.7% in 2018,” said Schomer. For US GDP, growth forecasts have been raised to 2.7% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018.

Multi-Asset: Fasten Your Seat Belts, It’s Going to Be a Bumpy Regime Change

“The year ahead marks several simultaneous secular turning points including the initial signs of deleveraging ending in the US. A net plus to global growth with more meaningful differences to regional, sector, asset class, and factor winners and losers is a healthy backdrop for seeking alpha from choosing beta,” said Michael J. Kelly, Global Head of Multi-Asset. “When the two largest economies – the US and China – pivot from slowing to revving up, take notice. Several other simultaneous regime changes are also likely to be fellow travelers.”

While the US equity market previously appeared modestly overvalued, after-tax cash flows will now be worth more if taxes are meaningfully reduced. US GDP should also accelerate from a host of factors. Given US small-cap and value stocks’ economic sensitivity, their attractive valuation is now being complemented with improving fundamentals by the second half of 2017, when tax rates should decline.

Countries with accelerating and domestically sourced growth –like India and Indonesia– provide compelling opportunities. Commodity producers should be big winners with infrastructure programs working their way through the pipeline. Risks to the outlook include trade negotiations spiralling into a global trade war, an inflation scare (but not an actual spike) emanating from the US, sluggishness in Europe and Japan, where negative interest rates and commensurately low output gaps persist, and China rethinking its faster trajectory.

Fixed Income: Investors Return to Coupon-Clipping in a Shifting, More Uncertain Environment

In 2017, PineBridge expects fixed income returns to decline while tail risks increase. More caution is in order given the likelihood of volatility flashpoints related to rising political risk in developed countries as well as a limited valuation cushion to absorb market shocks.

“With political risk and a transitory environment of monetary and fiscal policy we can expect heightened bouts of volatility to impact investing in fixed income. Investors must capture incremental alpha opportunities both across and within asset classes through micro views and security selection,” said Steven Oh, Global Head of Credit and Fixed Income.

Across developed markets investment grade, US dollar credit is preferred over European credit with Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as a defensive portfolio hedge, given higher US inflation risk. In leveraged finance, loans are favored over high-yield bonds on a risk-adjusted basis, with the US more attractive than Europe. In emerging markets, hard currency investment grade bonds over high yield segments are recommended for 2017, along with a targeted approach toward local currencies.

Equities: A Return to Fundamentally Driven Investing

The period of sharply falling earnings estimates for 2017 appears to have ended, with an increase in the number of companies seeing positive revisions, which should restore investors’ confidence in the broad equity market. The slump in emerging markets may be ending as many of the main factors that led to underperformance are now stabilizing or even reversing, and infrastructure spending ramps up in Asia. However, risks to equity markets remain with the uncertainty around US trade agreements or a potential disorderly increase in bond yields.

“We see equity flows pivoting to active strategies in a market driven by fundamentals where selectivity will be key, as global growth accelerates,” said Anik Sen, Global Head of Equities. “We maintain a high conviction on technology-related investments, small and midcap stocks, the US regional banks as well as in industries that benefit from infrastructure spending. In emerging markets, China is a bright spot with attractive secular growth in a number of sectors, and our positive view on India and Brazil, in particular, remains unchanged.”