Capital Group, one of the world’s largest asset managers, announced the launch of its first ETF designed to track U.S. small- and mid-cap stocks—a segment of the ETF market where new fund launches remain relatively rare, according to a Reuters report.
“The U.S. Small- and Mid-Cap ETF by Capital Group opens a new business opportunity. It was the last remaining product the company needed to launch to implement its own model portfolios before the end of the first quarter of 2025,” said Holly Framsted, Head of ETFs at the Los Angeles-based firm.
According to Capital Group data cited in the Reuters report and based on comments from Todd Sohn, ETF strategist at Strategas, of the more than $10 trillion in assets invested in U.S. ETFs, only about $440 billion is currently allocated to small-cap holdings.
“This remains a space within the ETF realm that is full of opportunities,” said Sohn.
Sohn explained that most investors gravitate toward active stock selection when choosing a small-cap fund. This is because indexes like the Russell 2000 include many unprofitable companies, making the index-linked funds less attractive.
However, it has only been five years since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) opened the door to actively managed ETFs, and small-cap ETFs are still working to catch up.
Managing a small-cap equity ETF also presents unique challenges. Unlike mutual fund managers, no ETF can close its doors to new investors if managers believe the strategy cannot absorb additional capital.
Holly Framsted further explained that one reason Capital Group opted to combine small- and mid-cap stocks in the same ETF was to maximize the team’s ability to handle large inflows effectively.
Family offices in the Americas are observing growing differences in priorities and approaches between founders and the next generation, according to new research by Ocorian.
The study, conducted among family office professionals in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, and the Cayman Islands, who collectively manage around $32.8 billion in assets, found that 93% point to generational differences within their families, and 33% consider these differences to be significant.
The biggest area of difference, identified by 68% of respondents, is investment in digital assets, while 52% highlight differences in ESG and impact investing. Approximately half mention discrepancies in the approach to private markets, while asset allocation and investment strategy are controversial topics for 34%.
These differences in approaches and priorities are driving a greater focus on succession planning, with all executives surveyed stating that more work is needed in this area.
93% report that there is a natural succession of wealth and leadership in the family offices for which they work.
On the other hand, 92% highlight that ensuring proper governance to meet the needs and expectations of family members is the biggest challenge they face.
The research also revealed that 77% say their family offices have become more professional in terms of operations and structure over the past five years. The remaining 23% state that their family office was already professional.
One important area of professionalization highlighted in the study is the strengthening or introduction of a family constitution, noted by 62% of respondents. More than half (54%) indicated that increased support from external providers has helped professionalize their family offices.
Ocorian is a global provider specializing in services for high-net-worth individuals and family offices, financial institutions, asset managers, and corporations, with a dedicated team to support family offices.
The latest data on the U.S. labor market, published last Friday, marked a turning point for assessing how the year has begun. It also serves as an opportunity to adjust some of the 2025 forecasts released by international asset managers.
The main takeaway from experts is that this latest data rules out an interest rate cut in January—the Fed meeting will take place on January 28–29. Meanwhile, markets have even begun shifting expectations for new cuts to the second half of the year. “Despite strong demand, wages did not respond to the increased labor market activity, as they rose by 0.3% compared to the previous month, the same as in November, and the year-on-year measure even fell to 3.9% from 4.0%. This aligns with central bankers’ assessment that, for now, there are no additional inflationary pressures coming from labor markets, and it is unlikely they will intensify their recent hawkish tone,” explains Christian Scherrmann, Chief U.S. Economist at DWS.
“With no clear signs of weakening, we suspect that the Fed will be happy to pause its easing cycle at its upcoming January meeting, as broadly indicated in December. We remain of the view that the Fed will make only one cut this year, and while we still foresee it happening in March, we acknowledge that the Fed will be data-dependent. However, we expect the Fed to resume rate cuts in 2026 as a result of the net negative impact on growth that we believe will stem from the new administration’s unorthodox economic programs,” argues David Page, Head of Macro Research at AXA IM.
It is clear that a more aggressive Fed impacts the outlook of international asset managers, but it is not the only thing that has changed as the year has begun. According to Fidelity International, there has been a widespread improvement in earnings revisions across most regions. However, in their view, two aspects remain unchanged compared to this year: “We expect U.S. exceptionalism to continue for now, driven by upcoming tax cuts and deregulation policies, which is why we maintain our preference for U.S. equities. At the same time, we still see a high political risk. Trade war risks have increased, while the likelihood of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine has grown,” they state.
For Jared Franz, an economist at Capital Group, the U.S. economy is experiencing the same phenomenon depicted in the movie The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008). “The U.S. economy is evolving similarly. Instead of advancing through the typical four-stage economic cycle that has characterized the post-World War II era, the economy seems to be moving from the final stage of the cycle to the mid-cycle, thereby avoiding a recession. Looking ahead, I believe the United States is heading toward a multi-year period of expansion and could avoid a recession until 2028,” he says.
Historically, and according to Capital Group’s analysis of economic cycles and returns since 1973, the mid-cycle phase has provided a favorable context for U.S. equities, with an average annual return of 14%.
Implications for Investors
According to Jack Janasiewicz, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, his outlook for the year can be summarized as U.S. stocks rising and bonds falling in 2025. “As we enter the new year, the labor market seems to be in recovery mode, as inflation continues to decline, contributing to higher real wages. This translates into greater purchasing power for U.S. consumers. Since consumption drives most of the growth in the U.S., this is a very healthy scenario. Looking ahead to 2025, our outlook remains positive, with expectations of even slower inflation and an expanding labor market. Investment strategies are likely to favor U.S. equities with a balanced investment approach and the use of Treasury bonds to mitigate risk. We foresee that new investments in artificial intelligence will continue to drive productivity and economic growth. The stock market is expected to maintain its upward trend, while the bond market will earn its coupon,” highlights Janasiewicz.
Fixed Income: Focus on Treasuries
One of the most notable movements in these early weeks of January is that the yield on U.S. Treasuries is approaching 5%. According to Danny Zaid, manager at TwentyFour Asset Management (a Vontobel boutique), last Friday’s U.S. unemployment data provides a strong argument for the Fed to remain patient regarding the possibility of further rate cuts. “This has caused a significant increase in U.S. Treasury yields in recent weeks, as the market is lowering expectations for additional cuts. Moreover, rates have also been pushed higher due to market uncertainty about the extent of the new Trump administration’s policy implementation, particularly concerning tariffs and immigration, which could have an inflationary impact,” notes Zaid.
Analysts at Portocolom add that another notable development was that, for the first time in over a year, the 30-year bond exceeded a 5% yield. “European debt experienced virtually identical behavior, with both the Bund and the 10-year bond gaining 15 basis points, closing at 2.57% and 3.26%, respectively,” they point out.
Among the outlooks from the manager at TwentyFour AM, he considers it likely that 10-year U.S. Treasuries will reach 5%. “However, if we take a medium-term view, yield levels are likely to become attractive at these levels. But we believe that for there to be a significant rally in U.S. Treasuries, at least in the short term, we would need to see data pointing to economic weakness or further deterioration in the labor market, and currently, neither condition is present. The rate movements, while significant, are largely justified given the current economic context,” he argues.
The increase in sovereign bond yields has also been observed in the United Kingdom. Specifically, last week saw the largest rise in bond yields, with 10-year Gilts reaching an intraday high of 4.9%, a level not seen since 2008. “Although specific U.K. factors, such as the budget, contributed to the rise, most of the increase was due to the rise in U.S. Treasury yields during the same period. Both weaker growth and higher interest rates put pressure on public finances. Unlike most other major developed countries, the U.K. borrows money at a much higher interest rate than its underlying economic growth rate, worsening its debt dynamics. If current trends of rising yields and slowing growth persist, the likelihood of spending cuts or tax hikes will increase for the government to meet its new fiscal rules,” explains Peder Beck-Friis, an economist at PIMCO.
Equities
As for equities, the year began with the stock market facing a correction that, according to experts, is far from alarming and seems like a logical adjustment after a strong 2024 in terms of earnings. “This data has dispelled fears of an imminent recession but has also ruled out the possibility of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the short term, a factor that has pressured major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which have fallen around 1.5%. This correction seems to reflect a normal adjustment in valuations rather than a deterioration in economic fundamentals. Credit spreads become a key indicator for interpreting this environment, as long as they remain stable, the market is simply adjusting after a period of rapid gains. Only if we see a widening of these spreads could it signal the first sign of growing concerns about economic growth,” says Javier Molina, Senior Market Analyst at eToro.
In this context, Molina acknowledges that the upcoming earnings season, starting this week, is generating high expectations. “An 8% year-over-year growth in S&P 500 earnings is anticipated, one of the highest levels since 2021. Sectors such as technology and communication services are leading the forecasts, with expected growth of 18% and 19%, respectively. In contrast, the energy sector faces a sharp contraction in earnings, reflecting the challenges of this environment,” he says.
According to the investment team at Portocolom, their assessment of the first weeks is very clear: “The first week of the year in equity markets was characterized by the opposite movement between Europe and the U.S. While U.S. indices fell 2% (the S&P 500 closed at 5,827.04 points and the Nasdaq 100 at 20,847.58 points), in Europe we saw gains exceeding 2% for the Euro Stoxx 50 and 0.60% for the Ibex 35, which ended the week at 4,977.26 and 11,720.90 points, respectively. The performance of a key benchmark, the VIX, was also noteworthy, as the volatility index rose by more than 8% during the week, adding tension to the markets, particularly in the U.S.”
For the Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, earnings growth and multiple expansion were the biggest drivers of U.S. equity market returns during 2024. Looking ahead to 2025, Janasiewicz points out: “While some may argue that valuations are at exaggerated levels, we believe these valuations may be justified by the fact that U.S. corporate margins are at historic highs, and investors are willing to pay more for higher-quality companies with stronger margins. Moreover, risk appetite does not appear to be very high, as many investors seem content to remain in money market funds earning 5%, hesitant to jump into equities, which would push prices even higher.”
Lynne Westbrook Joins Ocorian as Fund Services Director in Dallas
Lynne Westbrook has joined Ocorian as Director of Fund Services in Dallas.
The firm’s new hire aligns with its U.S. expansion strategy following the acquisition of EdgePoint Fund Services, according to a statement accessed by Funds Society.
Westbrook will lead and manage the Fund Services business in Dallas, with responsibility for delivering operational services and maintaining local relationships with clients and intermediaries.
Prior to joining Ocorian, Westbrook served as Director of Private Markets at Aztec Group, and previously worked in the UK at JP Morgan, as well as holding roles at LoneStar and SS&C. Her more than 20 years of experience includes specialized expertise in accounting and financial reporting, working with private equity funds, supporting Limited Partners (LPs), and managing fund administration, the firm’s statement adds.
“Lynne’s experience supporting both global and U.S. managers across private asset classes will be a significant contribution as we continue expanding our presence in the U.S.,” said Yegor Lanovenko, Co-Head of Global Fund Services at Ocorian.
UBS International Continues to Expand Its International Team Based in New York with the Arrival of Victoria Grace Vysotina from Morgan Stanley.
The private banker, with 28 years of experience in the U.S. industry, worked at firms such as Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, EIM Securities, HSBC, and Morgan Stanley, according to her BrokerCheck profile.
Specialized in risk and portfolio management, as well as alternative investments, “she brings valuable expertise to help you achieve your most important goals and aspirations for your family, career, business, and legacy,” says the statement from the Swiss bank.
Vysotina holds a Ph.D. in Mathematics from Emory University.
Snowden Lane Partners has strengthened its independence after buying back a significant portion of the stake held by its private equity partner, Estancia Capital Partners.
As a result of the transaction, the remaining shareholders, including Snowden Lane’s advisors and employees, own approximately two-thirds of the company, according to the firm’s statement accessed by Funds Society.
Snowden Lane also provided partial liquidity to vested advisor owners, who were able to monetize up to 40% of their holdings at an attractive valuation, the firm’s statement adds.
“In 2024, Snowden Lane achieved record profitability, registering 30% year-over-year revenue growth and over $80 million in total revenue. The firm added offices in Boca Raton, Golden, and Philadelphia. By the end of the year, Snowden Lane’s client assets amounted to approximately $11.7 billion,” the company’s statement details.
In addition to this transaction, Snowden Lane expanded its existing senior credit line in 2024; the firm maintains substantial cash and access to capital to continue recruiting and support potential acquisitions, the statement concludes.
UBS Wealth Management USA recently announced key changes to its organizational structure, including the transition of its field management model from two national divisions to four regions.
The new structure allows UBS field leaders to make faster decisions, better respond to client needs, and be more connected to the firm’s comprehensive offering, according to the firm’s statement.
Julie Fox has been appointed as regional director for the southeast, and the four new divisions, which will report directly to Fox, will be led by Brendan Graham, Jake Shine, Greg Achten, and Lane Strumlauf.
The four representatives will be distributed as follows:
Brendan Graham has been named market head for the Mid-Atlantic. He will be responsible for overseeing the firm’s financial advisors in Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, Washington, D.C., and Maryland (Baltimore and Hunt Valley).
Jake Shine has been named market head for the South Atlantic. He will oversee financial advisors in Maryland (Bethesda), Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina.
Greg Achten has been named market head for the South. He will oversee financial advisors in Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana.
Lane Strumlauf has been named market head for Florida. He will be responsible for overseeing financial advisors in Florida.
“Our wealth management business in the United States has strong momentum, and thanks to the hard work of our teams, we have a solid foundation to drive our next phase of growth,” said Fox.
The southeast region, which has experienced a significant increase in wealth in recent years, includes some of the fastest-growing wealth hubs in the country, such as Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., Charlotte, Charleston, Nashville, Miami, Palm Beach, Naples, and Tampa, among others.
The new leadership in these key markets will help advisors access important resources to better serve clients and leverage the strong global wealth management platform of UBS.
The advisors Felipe Sebes, Thiago Favery, Raphael Pinheiro, and Fernando Olea have joined EFG Capital in Miami.
The bankers, who come from XP, announced their move on LinkedIn after spending six months on garden leave. They clarified that they will focus on advising international clients, primarily families from Brazil.
“The bank stands out for its personalized and entrepreneurial approach and its focus on building lasting relationships. EFG specializes in offering customized wealth management solutions for individuals, families, and high-net-worth institutions, combining Swiss expertise with global reach. Its areas of specialization include private banking, wealth planning, investment solutions, and credit, all supported by a robust structure,” they posted on each of their LinkedIn profiles.
The advisors, each with more than a decade of experience, expressed their admiration for the international structure of the new firm and highlighted “the quality and tenure of the team.”
EFG International is a global private bank headquartered in Switzerland, with subsidiaries in more than 40 locations, including Miami, where the new team’s base will be.
After Trump’s victory late last year, commodities began to weaken. Even gold, which had an exceptional year, started losing value as the dollar strengthened. These turbulences in the last quarter of 2024 have filled investment firms’ outlooks for commodities with both light and shadow, and, above all, with highly diverse interpretations.
For example, Bank of America expects commodity prices, including oil, to decline. According to Francisco Blanch, Head of Commodities and Derivatives Research, the demand growth for commodities will weaken: “Macroeconomic fundamentals suggest that in 2025, markets will be oversupplied with oil and grains but more balanced in the case of metals. After facing headwinds early in the year, gold should reach a high of $3,000 per ounce.”
In its outlook, the institution explains that the risks of a global trade war, combined with a strong U.S. dollar and higher terminal rates, create a bearish scenario for commodity returns. “Fundamentals point to lower prices for oil, grains, and metals in the first half of 2025, but the outlook could improve with stimulus in China or trade agreements. Negative macroeconomic shocks (tariffs, higher rates) or positive ones (trade, fiscal, or peace agreements) could increase correlations between asset classes in 2025,” Bank of America emphasizes.
Ofi Invest, for its part, believes that the roughly 10% correction in industrial and precious metal prices following Trump’s victory was a one-off event caused by a strong dollar. Despite this “setback,” it considers that nothing has changed the medium-term structural drivers for metals: the energy transition and high levels of debt. The asset manager believes that these two trends will once again support rising metal prices, given the structural imbalances in both supply and demand.
“The short-term rebound in the dollar is not the most relevant factor for gold. Debt issues and the emerging distrust in the dollar are structural and persistent problems that have a greater impact on gold prices. Additionally, the price of metals will benefit from shifts in consumption due to the energy and digital transition. In short, the structural drivers of metals, led by the energy and digital transitions, should soon support rising metal prices, given the current supply and demand imbalances,” explains Ofi Invest.
On the other hand, Macquarie holds that, given its economists’ global GDP growth forecast of 3% for 2025, with sequential acceleration in the first half, commodity prices should find some support against the current headwind of a strong U.S. dollar. That said, they note that the prospect of a stronger tailwind, with a notable acceleration in global industrial production, has diminished. “In fact, the negative implications for goods demand from a trade war threaten the recovery potential for manufacturing relative to services. The possibility that commodity demand will receive a boost from manufacturing restocking in developed markets is also limited by the negative confidence impact of a trade war and by our reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts,” they explain.
Headwinds
According to Macquarie’s outlook, in their baseline scenario, the incremental implementation of both U.S. tariffs and Chinese policy easing will likely result in comparatively slow price action. “Without something to drive real demand growth or a narrative to reinvigorate financial flows, fundamentally oversupplied markets will likely see most prices trend downward over the next 18 months, interspersed with headline-driven volatility and the possibility of regional mismatches,” they explain.
Additionally, they warn of a wide range of associated risks, heavily dependent on whether any trade agreements are reached. In their outlook document, they indicate that the most volatile alternative scenario would undoubtedly be one in which the incoming Trump administration adopts a maximalist approach to tariff implementation. This could lead to increased financial risk and real demand destruction for industrial commodities, only to be followed by a much more robust and likely commodity-intensive stimulus package from the Chinese government.
Growth Trends
“Apart from cyclical uncertainties, the pace of the energy transition remains the key factor we expect to determine global final demand growth trends. Given the absence of commodity demand growth from the ‘old economy’ in developed markets over the last two decades, we remain skeptical about its potential as a future growth driver. Furthermore, the argument that the energy transition is already being perceived as a demand differentiator is underscored by the assessment that global electric vehicle (EV) production should account for approximately 40% of net copper demand growth in 2024. At the same time, strong EV sales in China should mean that fleet penetration rates are now sufficient for refined oil demand for road transportation in the country to have peaked,” adds Macquarie.
Their conclusion is that not only will the pace of these developments vary over time, but the degree to which financial markets price them in will likely exacerbate these changes. “In light of this, as well as the reflexivity of commodity markets, periods of excessive price strength will likely offset the potential for future fundamental tightening by incentivizing primary and secondary supply growth, as well as demand destruction. Conversely, any period of excessive price weakness—such as from a trade war—will add to the potential for medium-term shortages,” concludes Macquarie’s outlook document.
As we enter 2025, it is crucial to reflect on the events of the past year and prepare for the challenges and opportunities ahead. At the end of 2024, the investment leaders of Neuberger Berman gathered to analyze the evolving investment environment and identify the themes they consider essential for the next twelve months. As a result of this exercise, the investment firm highlights five key themes.
A Year of Above-Trend Growth
Although policies may change, industrial strategies aimed at influencing domestic production patterns will continue, whether through government spending and investment, fiscal policy, trade policy, deregulation, or other means, according to Neuberger Berman. “If inflation can remain contained—and we believe it is possible—central banks could stay on the sidelines and allow economies to operate at a slightly faster pace. This scenario suggests above-trend U.S. GDP growth, which could pull other global economies along. The implications for debt and deficits, as well as the efficient allocation of capital, could surprise investors by proving to be manageable concerns in 2025,” the experts highlight.
Extending the Soft Landing with Real Income Growth
The negative impact of high inflation on lower-income consumers and small businesses has been a key factor in this year’s political uncertainty. According to the firm, countries and governments that achieve moderate inflation and greater participation in real wage and income growth will define success, reflected in data such as higher consumer confidence, improved political approval ratings, and GDP growth rates. “While it remains to be seen whether certain policy combinations can achieve this, we see evidence that the new U.S. administration at least recognizes this goal, and active industrial policies are proof of a growing recognition in other regions,” the experts emphasize.Setting the Stage for Broader Equity Market Performance
Deregulation, business-friendly policies, moderate inflation, and lower rates could allow for broader earnings growth and price performance, according to Neuberger Berman. “At the same time, the growth rates of large technology companies are likely to slow and normalize as capital expenditures increase. Value stocks, small-cap stocks, and sectors such as financials and industrials could start to regain ground against large tech companies. Non-U.S. markets could perform more strongly due to higher global growth and lower commodity prices. Relative valuations, along with fundamentals, should support this trend,” the experts note.
Bond Markets to Focus on Fiscal Policy Over Monetary Policy
“For more than two years, bond markets have been dominated by inflation data and central bank responses. We believe that in 2025, a reacceleration of inflation can be avoided, and central banks will settle into the more predictable routine of debating the level of the neutral rate,” Neuberger Berman states.
Bond investors are likely to shift their focus toward growth prospects for most of 2025, and possibly toward deficits and the issue of the term premium by the end of the year and into 2026, according to the firm’s experts. The result will be a moderate steepening of yield curves and a migration of bond market volatility from the short end of the curve to the intermediate and long ends.
A Boom in Mergers and Acquisitions
“Several factors are converging to unleash a pent-up wave of corporate deals: above-trend growth, optimistic valuations in public equity markets, a more stable outlook on inflation and central bank policies, the return of banks to the leveraged loan market, declining interest rates, and tighter credit spreads. Perhaps most importantly, a shift in the regulatory approach in the U.S. is anticipated,” the firm highlights.
That said, secondary private equity markets and co-investments will continue to thrive, as liquidity is still required to manage a large backlog of mature investments. However, raising new primary funds will remain a challenge. Event-driven hedge fund strategies will benefit from a large set of new opportunities, the experts conclude.
