Petter von Bonsdorff, responsable de desarrollo internacional de Evli. Foto cedida. Evli: "Investors are Likely to be Better Off With Equities"
Evli Fund Management Company ended the year 2016 with assets under management (AUM) of EUR 6.4 billion. The inflow was the second largest of all Finnish fund managers in Finland. In addition to growing domestic sales, part of Evli’s strategy is to grow internationally. An increasing part of the inflows is coming from entering new markets. Petter von Bonsdorff, Head of International Business Development at EVLI talked with Funds Society about the company’s plans.
-How is your AM evolving in terms of international clients? Are they increasing in weight or percentage of the total?
A: In our local market we’re the most used institutional AM. However there is an appetite by non – Finnish investors for Evli’s funds. The proportion of non – Finnish institutional investors is something we want to increase. By the end of year 2016, the proportion was 17%, and higher than the year before.
-What are the countries which are experiencing the fastest growth? A: We’re seeing great interest in most of the European markets where we’re present. This has turned in to most investment decisions in France, Spain and Sweden.
What is your assessment of the time you have been present or selling into Spain? A: The investors are very demanding and it is clear that only unique strategies with a compelling results are accepted for an initial scrutiny. Also it seems that there is interest and curiosity by fund investors to meet with boutique managers. The investors have appreciated Evli’s rapid, timely and precise service.
-Which are the growth targets for international business this year? A: To actively interact with investors is what we’re targeting this year. This will very likely turn out as investor interest into the funds we’re promoting.
-What funds are you going to push or back the most as a result of being the ones you consider will benefit more from investors’ appetite? A: Investors are always looking for good solutions. To offer only what is in vogue at a certain point in time may lead to future unwanted outflows, once a fad has waned. We think that unique strategies are always in demand.
-What kind of markets you’re expecting this year? do you believe it will be a very volatile year? A: The year 2017 seems to have a lot of possibilities to be a year with similar political events as last year, e. g. elections and new governments around in Europe. This may lead to market volatility. How this can and shall be observed in portfolio management or fund sales business management is another thing.
-Do you think you equities will have more opportunities whereas Fixed Income will face mores risks? A: Investors are likely to be better off with equities, due to higher risk premiums compared to fixed income.
Foto cedidaJosé Castellano, CEO adjunto y responsable de distribución internacional de iM Global Partner.. jose castellano
The merger between Pioneer Investments and Amundi continues ahead and, in this context, the first changes in the teams are beginning to be announced. According to Funds Society’s best knowledge, Jose Castellano, who until now has been in charge of Pioneer Investments in the US Offshore, Latin America, and Iberia regions, has decided to leave the fund management company in order to pursue other professional projects.
Castellano, who has been Managing Director and Head of the three regions for 16 years, has been an architect of the growth that Pioneer Investments has experienced in Iberia, US Offshore and Latin America, making these areas one of the most profitable in the whole group. In recent years he has also been involved in strategic projects, globally.
Castellano has reconciled these functions with the leadership of H4U properties, his position as an investor in Thinking Heads, or, during the last few years, as Director for Southern Europe, Italy, Switzerland, Spain, and Portugal in Hedge Fund Association. Prior to joining Pioneer Investments in January 2001, he was Director for Morgan Stanley’s private equity group for two years, and Director of Wealth Management for a further seven years at the same entity.
Pioneer Investments has just confirmed the news and explains that the responsibility of the regions will be shared between the in European and US teams. Cinzia Tagliabue, Head for Western Europe and Latin America, will be responsible for the management company’s distribution business in Iberia and Latin America. She will be supported by an experienced team throughout these markets dedicated to providing the best quality service to customers.
Laura Palmer, Head of Intermediary Distribution in the US, will manage the sales team based in Miami, which drives the growth of the business in US Offshore. Palmer leads the US distribution team, which focuses on relationships with key financial intermediaries in the country, and reports to Lisa Jones, President and CEO of Pioneer Investment Management USA Inc. “We are confident that this change of management will strengthen our ability to serve offshore clients with excellence in the future,” the statement said. However, Pioneer Investments has commenced the process of hiring a Sales Manager for the US Offshore market.
The Merger Continues
Castellano’s departure falls within the context of the merger between Pioneer Investments, which will continue with its usual activity, and Amundi, which will also continue its course. This week, the European Commission has given the green light to the operation, considering that the operation will not have a negative impact on the European economic space.
“The operation would not give rise to competition problems given the complementarity between the activities of the companies, the small increase resulting from the operation, and the existence of several competitors, which guarantees sufficient choice for customers,” the Brussels statement said. In this way, they could meet the deadlines and tie up any loose edges of the operation before the close of the first half of this year.
Pioneer’s acquisition by Amundi, valued at 3.545 billion Euros, was notified to Brussels on the 20th February, and has been examined under the normal merger control procedure. The acquisition makes the resulting group the eighth largest global asset manager with almost € 1.3 trillion in assets under management.
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainPhoto: RonKikuchi, FLickr, Creative Commons. Funds Society Magazine Taps Trendscout to Reveal Investor Trends in Spain and Latin America
Spain and Florida-based “Funds Society” magazine is a media partner of fundinfo that focuses on investment fund news for Spanish-speaking countries. Available in both Spanish and English, Funds Society now publishes a monthly article which reveals real-time investor trends about funds distributed in Spanish speaking regions.
By tapping into fundinfo’s online fund analytics tool “Trendscout”, Funds Society can now publish articles on a wide range of topics including changes in investor interest on a per-category basis, a precise ranking of the most interesting funds, and macro trends such as an overall shift from passive to active funds.
Trendscout charts worldwide industry trends and investor interest by monitoring investor activity on fundinfo’s web platform. With Trendscout, asset managers identify sector and investor trends to support product launches and strategic decisions, or monitor the effectiveness of their sales and marketing efforts. Financial media use trendscout to publish revealing trends about the latest developments in country-specific fund markets.
For more examples about what Trendscout can do for the financial media, read our recent Trendscout newsletter.
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainPhoto: Jsouth . Pioneer Investments, Investec AM, JP Morgan and BlackRock Get 850 Million Dollars From Afore XXI Banorte's Mandate
Mexican pension fund manager Afore XXI Banorte awarded Pioneer Investments, Investec Asset Management, JP Morgan Asset Management and BlackRock, with close to 850 million dollars to invest in an Asian Equity Mandate. To date, Afore XXI Banorte has funded one previous mandate on European Equity Market and this is the second project that they are awarding, continuing the pension funds’ diversification to international markets through active management.
The Asian Equity mandate follows an innovative pan Asiatic approach that includes Japan. This allows the investors to benefit from emerging Asia potential, while investing in developed market high quality companies based in Japan and Australia.
Juan Manuel Valle, CEO for Afore XXI Banorte, remarked: “The assignment of this mandate aims at optimizing our affiliates’ investments, which is evidence of the great progress undertaken by the savings for retirement industry in Mexico. This puts Afore XXI Banorte on the cutting edge when it comes to investment management and reinforces our position through participation in complex markets like Asian equities, taking advantage of international managers’ expertise, in addition to using transition management services and the international custodian model offered by the State Street Bank and Trust Company platform. The latter with the objective of enhancing the return of our affiliates’ portfolios in the long term”.
Sergio Mendez, CIO for Afore XXI Banorte noted: “With the funding of the Asian equity mandate, Afore XXI Banorte confirms its commitment to grant its affiliates access to the best investment vehicles, in order to achieve better returns to their investment”.
Gustavo Lozano, Country Head of Pioneer Investments Mexico, stated: ‘Funding of this mandate in just four months after being appointed managers signals that the regulatory changes, along with our previous experience onboarding Mexican Pension Funds’ projects, shortens implementation times of mandates in Mexico and this will be in itself an asset class catalyst. Pioneer Investments manages and on-boards these projects from London bringing diversification to pensioners and engaging Mexican Institutional clients with comprehensive relationships where we are not only providing investment services, but complement this with Knowledge Transfer Services, which add value to the business proposition.”
Pioneer Investments received 150 million dollars which will be actively managed by the specialist Asian Equities investment team at Pioneer Investments’ London Investment Center. BlackRock, got 200 that will be managed by Andrew Swan. JP Morgan Asset Management got 280 million and Investec Asset Management received 220 million dollars.
Ariel Bezalel, gestor del Jupiter Dynamic Bond. Foto cedida. "The Role of Fixed Income as a Volatility Dampener in a Diversified Portfolio Will Remain"
Fixed income faces many challenges today, but Ariel Bezalel, manager of the Jupiter Dynamic Bond, explains how, by combining a top-down and bottom-up approach with flexible management, opportunities can be found. Its bets: the financial sector of developed markets and emerging markets like India (debt in dollars and also in local currency). In this interview with Funds Society, he also explains how he keeps the risk of duration in the face of rising inflation and political risks in Europe.
Many experts say that the biggest focus of trouble could be now in fixed income: Is it true that nowadays fixed income has a higher risk profile than other assets? Why?
Undoubtedly, with yields at today’s levels it is not easy to achieve compelling returns. We will however have to work hard to spot the opportunities given the low yield environment. A key to this is our time-tested process combining top-down and bottom-up analysis as well as our flexible, unconstrained mandate. That flexibility enables us to find those opportunities.
It is worth mentioning as well that despite the rate hikes expected by the market, we expect that the role of the fixed income asset class as a volatility dampener in a diversified (bond/equity) portfolio will remain.
It seems that the inflation is going to rise suddenly… Are you amongst the people who think that or do you think expectations are overstated?
Inflation in the developed world has certainly been picking up. Market indicators, such as breakeven inflation rates, are rising in the UK, US and Germany, putting upward pressure on government bond nominal yields. Elsewhere, economic growth in China is ticking along nicely, reflected in resilient commodity prices and brighter US service sector data and wages.
Donald Trump’s election of course is a further inflationary signal. The US president’s rhetoric points towards potentially faster economic growth, and with an economy almost at full employment, inflationary pressures are bound to build. However, Trump still has yet to implement his plans and there is still a lot of uncertainty around the plan and the timeline.
Do your inflation expectations have any impact on the portfolio of your fund? Are you preparing for the rise of the inflation or it is too soon?
We are fortunate that our strategy’s unconstrained mandate means we can select what we consider to be the best opportunities across global bond markets while seeking to carefully mitigate risk, in part through management of duration which we continue to keep low. In credit, for instance, as we see inflation risk picking up and favour short-dated paper with decent carry alongside ‘special situations’ where we see the possibility of capital gains.
With inflationary pressures building up in Europe, and rising political risk surrounding the French elections, we have also initiated a short position in French government bonds over the months.
Do you believe that this a moment to be cautious with the duration and to assume risk in credit, or are there various shades to this idea? Why?
We are balancing careful management of duration with a reactive approach to market developments and continue to use the strategy’s unconstrained mandate to exploit ‘special situations’ where we see the possibility of capital gains. That said, we have been steadily reducing duration, starting in August 2016, to help insulate the fund from rising rates.
Regarding central banks: have the markets already discounted the interest-rate hikes what the Fed is expected to make this year?
Markets are currently pricing in a 30% probability for a rate hike in March due to lackluster average earnings and the back-up we’ve seen in 10-year yields. The markets though see 50/50 chance of the Fed raising in April, and a close to 70% chance of a hike in June. However these probabilities may change significantly as Trump fiscal policy unfolds during the year.
Will the ECB take progressive measures also in terms of “taper tantrum” in the mid-term? Will it be more difficult for Europe than for the US to withdraw stimulus? What will be the effects on the European debt market?
The ECB’s decision to reduce its monthly asset purchase programme from €80bn to €60bn in April demonstrates the pressure the central bank faces from hawkish members to reduce the pace of the programme. While the ECB would seek to minimise disruption in the bond markets, it will be more and more difficult to justify QE as inflation picks up in the euro zone. Another very significant event risk for peripheral spreads in Europe will be the French elections in May. A victory for Marine Le Pen would likely trigger a significant widening across European peripheral spreads.
In which segments of the fixed income market do you see the best opportunities these days? (by regions, sections, countries … and by public or private debt)
Within developed markets we see opportunities in the banking sector as it benefits from both the reflation in the global economy and a secular trend towards deleveraging. EM is another area we like. However one has to be very selective. One of our main picks is India where the combination of favorable demographics and improvement of the institutional framework since Modi’s arrival to power have underpinned our investment thesis.
Because of the next rate hikes, is it a good moment to invest in the banking sector? Many people are talking about the attractive of the subordinated bank debt. Do you agree with them?
Banks remain a favoured sector for us because secular deleveraging combined with steeper yield curves should ultimately benefit bond investors in this area, particularly junior bond holders, although one has to be selective.
What are your views on EM debt? Do you prefer local or hard currency?
There are some exciting opportunities in emerging markets. We have been increasing our exposure to Indian bonds because of the country’s favourable long-term economic and political backdrop, putting us in a position where we are able to capture attractive yields. I’m very encouraged by India. It is a very insular economy; it doesn’t rely too much on exports, it doesn’t have much dollar-denominated debt and the current government is a very business-friendly administration that is really picking up on implementing reforms over the last year or so. We invest in both dollar-denominated and local currency bonds.
Do you believe that public Spanish debt has potential or this is not a good time to invest?
We have limited exposure to peripheral Europe due partially to the uncertainty surrounding the European project. However, one has to recognize that Spain’s economy is showing great strength underpinned by the structural reform undertaken following the crisis in the euro zone debt crisis.
Michel Zatarain, Fixed Income Manager at BFT Investment Managers (Amundi). / Courtsey Photo. BFT IM (Amundi) Advocates For Funds Held to Maturity to Protect the Investor from Rate Hikes... But with Active Management
Choosing the correct fixed income product in a rate-hike environment is an arduous task. The debt market seems to have lost its appeal, but managers like Michel Zatarain, Fixed Income Manager at BFT Investment Managers (Amundi), continue to believe that it is possible to do so by relying on active management and the “Buy & watch” approach advocated by the management company.
“In an environment of rate hikes, funds held to maturity allow for investor protection from the time aspect. They are fixed income products with maturity set and known upon contracting. They consist of a portfolio of diversified assets, and have a maturity date equal to or lower than the fund,” explains Zatarain, using as an example the BFT Sélection Haut Rendement 2021 fund, which is managed by this subsidiary of the Amundi group.
This fund, with a cumulative return of 8.29% since its launch in March 2016, is an example of the management company’s commitment to this type of product, and of its management style. “In a fixed maturity buy & watch fund, the net asset value may decrease, but normally, if there is no default, it will recover to its nominal value. Over time the volatility of the fund and its sensitivity to interest rates is reduced,” Zatarain points out as one of the features of this type of product.
‘Buy & Watch’
Zatarain, however, places particular emphasis on their management approach, known as Buy & watch, and which provides these funds with certain characteristics. According to his explanation, “BFT’s strategy lies in yield. The strategy we apply is based on the selection of each company that issues a bond; we have fixed income funds that are invested in corporate bonds of any rating. And we are not concerned with following a benchmark.”
The watch part of their strategy not only forces them to monitor their portfolio, but also the entire investment universe. “We can take advantage of the primary market to invest in new companies or sell those bonds whose trajectory is not good,” says Zatarin. Active management is intended, not only to take advantage of these primary issues, but also to take profits on securities that become too expensive, and to sell those whose credit quality falls.
In the ‘Buy’ part, the firm describes a rigorous accounting analysis process for each of the assets it wishes to consider. “First we look at that whole universe and apply predefined filters, such as expiration dates or exclude bonds with weak amounts. Then we carry out the selection, which is the most critical point and, finally, we build the portfolio without including more than 3% of the same company, which guarantees good diversification.”
At that critical point, the BFT IM manager points out that the choice of assets is based on a strong financial analysis. “When we analyze a company, the priority is debt repayment. That is why we perform a fundamental analysis where the profile of the company is studied, then another analysis of its financial situation is carried out, and finally its bond is compared to the rest of the market, to identify how attractive it is,” he explains.
Flexibility
This type of fund has a rotation of 30%, which provides flexibility and reinforces the diversification that is pursued. Using the BFT Selection Haut Rendement 2012 fund as an example once again, the base materials sector leads in the allocation of assets, with 25% allocation and is oriented, for example, towards companies. The second sector is consumer services, and the third is that of capital goods. As for the countries, the first is France with almost 20%, followed by the United Kingdom with 15%, and Italy with 14%. Spain is the sixth country with 6.4%. “It must be understood that we don’t try to reflect the composition of an index, the weights by sector or country are the result of our strategy in the selection of the assets,” he insists.
Zatarain acknowledges that right now clients are not asking for capital guarantee in fixed income because they know that the high-yield market is always a risk. “What is demanded of the funds is active management and flexibility,” he adds. Therefore, throughout this year, the management company will launch two new funds held to maturity. The first, which will have a 2024 horizon, will have subordinated debt and offer a yield of 3.3%. According to the firm, its forecast is to launch it at the end of March. While the second, which will be in the market between May and June, will mature in 2020, will be a mixed fund, and offer a yield of 0.75%.
Blas Miñarro - LinkedIn Photo. Blas Miñarro Joins JP Morgan Private Bank
Blas Miñarro has joined JP Morgan Private Bank’s Miami office as Managing Director and Senior Private Banker focused on the largest wealth segment, or UHNW, in the Southern Cone.
For 27 years, Miñarro’s professional career has been linked to different entities within the Santander Group. Prior to joining JP Morgan Private Bank, and since 2009, he has held the position of Commercial Director for the Southern Cone at Santander International, Santander’s international private banking business, headquartered in Miami; in which he arrived in 2005 as Senior Banker for Chile.
Before moving to Florida, Miñarro held different management positions at Banco Santander in Spain, dealing with sole proprietorships, companies, and institutions.
Miñarro has the MIT Sloan Executive Certificate in Management and Leadership, in addition to other degrees previously obtained at the University of Granada, Alcalá de Henares, or the Institute of Business Directors.
Bob Michele, Fixed Income CIO at JP Morgan, at a recent conference. Courtsey Photo . "We are Currently at an Experimental Period in Monetary Policy and we Must Discover if the Appreciation of Assets Since 2009 is Just a Monetary Effect
According to Bob Michele, JP Morgan‘s fixed-income CIO, the Fed will raise rates in March; he believes that the monetary authority will carry out a normalization process in the US which will last at least five years, during which the Fed will raise rates every two months to around 4%.
During a conference on fixed-income opportunities organized by the management company, Michele pointed out, however, that the Fed’s main problem is managing the volume of US sovereign debt on its balance sheet. “By 2018 there will be 425 billion dollars in Treasury bonds, how can it wait until their maturity? Reversing will be difficult; therefore, it will have to opt for either gradual debt forgiveness or refinancing debt, because it could crush the market” he explained.
The expert also admits to being bearish with fixed income, and that bond yields cannot do other than rise in an environment of rising inflation and interest rates. That is, the trend that started after Trump’s victory, and which has increased the yield of the US bond from 1.5% to 2.4%, will continue. “The Treasury (10-year US bond) will act as a type of springboard. In summer we will see a change in profitability,” he states. He predicts that it will achieve 3.5% profitability during the next 12 months.
As for the upward trajectory that, a priori, interest rates have taken, a lot will depend on Janet Yellen’s successor as Fed Chair. According to Michele, there is a tide of opinion that bets on Yellen’s continuity but “the odds on that are %”. In this regard, he believes that the Fed has so far been controlled by academics who apply traditional econometric models. “These models work well in theory, but not in the real world,” he explains. In his opinion, “it’s good if someone from the real world, who is not so academic, arrives at the Fed.”
In fact, in recent years, reality has shown us that theories may probably not be fulfilled. The theory says, for example, that an accommodative monetary policy is the best for equities, but the reality is that fixed income has had a spectacular behavior. “We are currently at an experimental period in monetary policy and we must discover if the appreciation of assets since 2009 is just a monetary effect,” Michele states.
As Head of Fixed Income of one of the largest fund managers in the world, Michele is not reluctant to admit that he is bullish with equities. “If rates increase at a rate of 1% a year, the stock market will do very well, if they rise 0.5%, a bear market will be created.”As for options within fixed income, they focus on reducing durations, and betting on bonds linked to inflation, European and US high-yield bonds, and emerging market debt in local currency. “Many people think I’m crazy for recommending emerging debt in local currency, but these currencies have already made their adjustments. On the other hand, if I protect the currency, I give up a lot of profitability and I don’t want to do that,” he concludes.
Jean-Marc Pont, Equity Investments Specialist at Generali Investments. Courtesy Photo. Generali Investments: Applying a SRI Approach to the Ageing Population Theme Provide Additional Value
Turning the aging population into a responsible investment opportunity: this is what is done by the Generali Investments Sicav (GIS) SRI Ageing Population fund, a thematic fund seeking to capitalize on this long-term demographic trend, which is also in line with SRI (Socially responsible investment) criteria. It’s an innovative approach.
The so-called “gray power” is the basis on which to build portfolios that identify those sectors and companies that can most benefit from this phenomenon… and which also meet social profitability criteria.
In an interview with Funds Society, Jean-Marc Pont, Equity Investments Specialist at Generali Investments, explains that “the universe of investable companies is very broad, but the fund concentrates on large and medium-sized European companies with a very small position in those outside the Old Continent.” As a result of the management team’s selection, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany represent over 63% of their exposure to European markets, and there is no talk of uncertainty here because, as Pont points out, “it is a portfolio that is not moved by political events.”
Europe is the epicenter of its investment, while it is also the area of the world where the aging of the population will be most evident. After all, about a third of Europeans will be over 60 in 2040. As a result, it will be here that seniors will progressively control a higher percentage of income. This is the case in Sweden, Finland, Belgium, and France, where by 2020 they will already own over 30% of total revenues.
Also, as explained by Pont, “European companies have a high level of geographical diversification and, therefore, investing in them is investing in other areas of the world, that is, being exposed to worldwide income.”
Thus, its average exposure to income from the European continent stands at 53%, with the remaining 47% of exposure to income from the rest of the world.
Three major themes and 13 sub-sectors
The megatrend leads them to maintain an exposure at the end of January, of 48% to the consumer sector, 34% to the health sector, and 18% to retirement planning and saving products. Within these three themes, there are another 13 sub-sectors which range from anti-aging treatments to vitamin supplements, oncology, incontinence, or dental implants. Among the top 10 fund positions at the end of January are, Royal Philips, LVMH, L’Oreal, Roche, Axa, Prudential, or Sanofi.
The thematic investment strategy only includes securities that meet socially responsible investment requirements, and these are, in fact, ahead of the aging megatrend. “We indeed believe that applying a SRI approach to this theme will also provide additional value, through its in-depth analysis of extra-financial criteria,” says the expert.
In the SRI filtering process, a proprietary method is used that includes aspects such as reputation, regulatory pressure, or carbon footprint. Subsequently, companies that meet the 34 most relevant criteria for each sector are identified, and those with a higher than average rating are chosen.
The Thematic European Equity Investment team makes a thematic selection to identify the level of exposure of companies to the three investment pillars. The team then selects the companies for each of the three themes, based on different financial metrics. The result of this three-step strategy is a portfolio of about 50-60 securities that the team periodically follows in order to re-evaluate investment projects and sell the securities when objective valuation is achieved.
Unstoppable Trend
The aging population is worrisome and the figures are alarming. According to the UN, by 2040, the percentage of people over sixty will have increased from 12% in 2015 (900 million) to around 19%, or 1.9 billion.
Raphael Pitoun, courtesy photo. Raphael Pitoun: “I very much doubt that at this stage of the cycle, it makes sense to invest in companies with a leveraged balance sheet”
The Stryx Global Growth Fund, a global equity fund, only invests in the best companies in the world in terms of quality and growth. In fact, it is a growth strategy with a low number of expositions: between 17 and 25 shares. To this we must add that its rotation is of around 20%. Some of the companies stay for more than fifteen years. Raphael Pitoun, CIO of Seilern Investment Management, explains the reasons why the fund is concentrated: “The companies you are looking for are very rare,” he says.
The strategy, which Capital Strategies markets in Spain, selects stocks between industries and sectors that present high barriers to entry, strong pricing power and visible growth prospects. “The companies in our portfolio combine a sustainable competitive advantage with a strong balance and high profitability,” explains the CIO of this boutique manager with $ 400 million of assets under management in this interview with Fund Society.
How does your fund differ from other global equities funds?
The Stryx World Growth fund only invests in the best companies in the world in terms of quality and growth. Stocks are selected from industries and sectors with high barriers to entry, strong pricing power and visible growth prospects and the companies combine a sustainable competitive advantage with a strong balance sheet and high profitability. Stryx World Growth is a concentrated fund of between 17 to 25 stocks as the companies we are looking for are very rare. The fund has a low turnover of around 20%; some of the companies are in the portfolio for more than fifteen years.
What is your broad outlook for equities in 2017?
We continue to have a positive Outlook for Equities in 2017. The level of systemic risk is moderate as the banking sector restored its profitability and the amount of leverage in the private space is not disproportionate. There is still plenty of liquidity and except if the Federal Reserve makes errors and tighten too quickly this should continue to be the case. We are not very optimistic regarding the ability of the new US administration to boost growth but overall global growth prospects remain acceptable. Despite indexes reaching recent highs, the investment world is still largely skeptical and underweight in Equities. This bodes well for a continuation of the rally in the foreseeable future. We only start to perceive the first signs of market euphoria since a few weeks and these signs are still far from a bubble.
In which areas do you see more opportunities?
We are not keen to make any macroeconomic gamble and the companies we invest in are also chosen because they are more immune than an average company to any kind of macroeconomic trend. What we can say is that with the ongoing sector rotation, which favored low quality sectors, indebted companies and banks, our highly growing and predictable companies are very much affordable. Also, I very much doubt that at this stage of the cycle, it makes sense to invest in companies with a leveraged balance sheet for example.
Three themes for this year
One of the themes we have been working on recently is the consumer staples industry. It looks like the sector growth algorithm is getting increasingly challenged by competition, new consumption habits, the direct to consumer business and slowing developed markets. We become structurally more prudent about this sector and, for example, we sold our 17-year-old position in Reckitt Benckiser a few weeks ago.
The other theme, which looks interesting to us, is the healthcare sector. We progressively moved our exposure from pure drug manufacturers to medical devices makers. The latter often have a good pricing power, interesting strong growth prospects and high barriers to entry. We do not think they will be completely immune to the huge pressure on developed market’s healthcare system but, if chosen carefully, some of them make very interesting investments.
Last, we have been working on robotics. Most companies we invest in have a plan to increase their capital expenditures on automation. With inflation fears coming back and full employment in some markets, this should only accelerate this trend. What we see on that front is similar to what companies experienced in the 2000s when they outsourced production or open plants in low-cost countries: when one competitor start doing that, the others are obliged to follow creating a strong halo effect. This should benefit companies such as Fanuc in Japan.
Are we seeing a rotation from growth to value?
Yes, it is visible that some investors shift from growth investment into value. On our side, we are very wary of using the distinction between growth and value. We are quality growth investors and it is a big difference with what is considered a growth investor. We do not bet on growth prospects for one or two years but for the long term and growth is only one of the criteria we are looking at. We do not have any style or do not follow any fashion: we use the equity market as a tool to invest but our investments are not in the equity market but in companies.
What are your capabilities of capital preservation?
Our capabilities of capital preservation are very high from both a company and portfolio perspective. At a company level, the risk of default is very low as the companies we aim at investing in are very established businesses (on average, they were founded in 1944), have healthy businesses and are highly cash generative. From a portfolio perspective, the main driver of the performance is the earnings generation rather than multiple expansion or fragile dividend payments. For investors who have a sufficient time horizon across the cycle, the capital should be not only preserved but increased significantly.
How do you identify areas of the market that may provide stock ideas?
Our ideas are purely proprietary and based on the work on our internal research team. We also capitalize on our own track record of 25 years and know how in the quality growth investment. Finding new ideas comes from two ways. Firstly, we are using a quantitative screening as we want the companies to tick many boxes in terms of track record, growth and balance sheet. Secondly, we identify structural growth themes and, often when we look at one company, it often leads to another one. But, again, identifying an idea is the very first step of a long process; we then deep dive and investigate on all the aspects of the company and this can take between six months and one year before a company is approved for investment.
We have seen a upward trend in US equities because of Trump, is this trend sustainable?
To put things into perspective, the change in the market environment has started last July before the US elections. The stimulus plan announced in China, and decreasing deflation fears in Europe already helped the equity market. The election of Trump made some investors think that the US could also see better growth prospects. That’s a point we are doubtful about given the local political context and the division inside the Republican party. But again Trump was only one explanation for the rally and a potential disappointment, even if it will not help, should not entirely break the positive market dynamics.
Why you do not invest in Banks? And in Oil? And in Insurances companies?
This is explained by our investment philosophy. We only invest in companies we can understand and analyze. Banks and insurance companies are not transparent enough. On top of that, there is no real structural growth driver and the capital intensity in the financial sector is going up. As far as oil is concerned, we want the earnings growth to be as predictable as possible. For oil companies, we are not in a position to forecast even the revenue line in an accurate manner.
