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U.S. Investors Go Big on Europe, Explaining Record Inflows into European ETFs in 2025

Analysts at Freedom24, the investment platform of European group Freedom Holding Corp., reveal a historic shift in capital flows: U.S. investors are making strong bets on Europe. In just the first quarter of 2025, they invested $10.6 billion in European exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a figure seven times greater than during the same period in 2024, driven by volatility in U.S. markets and Europe’s fiscal and regulatory revival.

Since January, European equities have outperformed U.S. stocks by more than 10%, prompting a reassessment of where the best opportunities lie. Freedom24 analysts examine the European ETFs receiving the highest inflows in 2025, based on available data and trends as of April 3, 2025.

Historic Inflows of $10.6 Billion
European ETFs recorded historic inflows of $10.6 billion in Q1 2025, marking a sharp turnaround from the $6.4 billion in net inflows accumulated since February 2022. This recovery comes at a time when U.S. markets are under pressure from new tariff threats — a factor that sharply contrasts with the performance of the Morningstar US Market Index. While the latter has seen a cumulative drop of about 8%-9% through mid-April 2025 due to these pressures, the Morningstar Europe Index has followed a different trajectory, showing much more restrained movement during the same period, after a notable rise at the start of the year.

This shift is also evident in European investor behavior: in February, they withdrew $510 million from U.S. equity ETFs. This contrasts with the strong global appetite seen just a few months earlier, when November 2023 saw $22.8 billion in inflows into such products, according to etf.com. In summary, MEGA-style operations (Make Europe Great Again) are quickly replacing MAGA (Make America Great Again) trades.

Defense: A Rising Star
Defense remains the crown jewel, driven by Europe’s €800 billion ($866 billion) rearmament and Germany’s fiscal expansion. The Select STOXX Europe Aerospace & Defence ETF (EUAD), launched in October 2024, had already raised $476 million by April 2025 — a sign of its appeal. European defense stocks have risen 33% this year, and valuations — such as Rheinmetall trading at 44 times future earnings — have surpassed their U.S. counterparts and even luxury brands like Ferrari.

Still, caution is warranted: although profit growth forecasts (e.g., 32% annually for Rheinmetall through 2028) are tempting, 78% of the EU’s arms spending since 2022 has occurred outside the bloc, mainly in the U.S. Nevertheless, EUAD remains a favorite for this long-term trend, along with supply chain players like Eutelsat (ETL.PA), which surged 260% this month amid Ukraine-related speculation.

European ETFs with the Largest Inflows in 2025
Based on early trends and reports, the funds attracting the most attention from U.S. and global investors include standout options for both their financial characteristics and macroeconomic backdrops.

One of the most notable is the iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG), which has received over $1 billion in inflows this year. The fund benefits from Germany’s fiscal push in areas such as infrastructure and climate, as well as the positive performance of the German stock market, which rose 9.04% in January.

The iShares MSCI Europe (IEV) is also drawing significant interest, partly due to its broad exposure to the European market and a low expense ratio of 0.59%, within an environment of $2.3 trillion in assets under management in European ETFs in 2024.

Meanwhile, the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) stands out among the leaders thanks to its competitive 0.07% expense ratio and $3.5 billion in inflows into Vanguard’s UCITS products this year.

Finally, the iShares Core MSCI Europe UCITS ETF (IMEU), although without specific 2025 data, has maintained strong momentum supported by a solid historical return and the $11.59 billion raised in January by iShares products.

What’s Driving the European ETF Boom?
According to Freedom24 analysts, the renewed appeal of European ETFs is due to several structural factors. First, Europe is moving faster than the U.S. in cutting red tape, creating opportunities in multiple sectors. Germany’s €500 billion infrastructure fund, expected to boost GDP by 1.4% annually, is a key example. This has directly benefited the iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG), which has doubled its assets after receiving $1 billion.

Another highlight is the expansion of the bond market. Rising German debt and the EU’s €150 billion SAFE program are increasing the supply of AAA-rated assets, boosting products like the First Trust Germany AlphaDEX Fund (FGM).

The European banking sector is up 26% in 2025 — its best quarter since 2020 — and markets like Spain and Italy are gaining prominence due to lower trade tensions and attractive valuations. In fixed income, bond ETFs attracted $9.3 billion in February, with funds like the iShares Core € Corp Bond UCITS ETF (IEAC) leading in inflows.

Lastly, the energy transition is solidifying as a key driver. With solar energy reaching 11% of Europe’s electricity mix, companies like Iberdrola and Enel — which have appreciated between 7% and 16% this year — are boosting interest in ETFs focused on renewables.

From Outflows to Opportunity: Europe’s New Paradigm
Since 2022, when Europe saw $6.4 billion in net outflows from ETFs, the landscape has radically changed. Germany’s strong climate investment and the EU’s push for renewables have restored the continent’s appeal. Logistics and communications firms like Scania (Traton) and Atlas Copco are also well positioned amid growth in defense and infrastructure.

Europe: A Long-Term Strategic Bet
According to Freedom24 analysts, the $10.6 billion surge into European ETFs in Q1 is not a passing trend but a sign of Europe’s “MEGA Moment.” Funds like the Select STOXX Europe Aerospace & Defence ETF (EUAD), iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG), and First Trust Germany AlphaDEX Fund (FGM) are leading the shift. At the same time, sectors like banking and renewables and regions like Southern Europe are solidifying their appeal.

Despite strength on both sides of the Atlantic, European ETFs are growing at a faster pace. According to EY, assets under management in Europe reached $2.3 trillion at the end of 2024 and could rise to $4.5 trillion by 2030, driven by retail trading and the growth of individual savings.

In conclusion, say analysts at Freedom24, Europe is consolidating its position as an undervalued region with high potential. Its fiscal agenda, favorable regulation, and leadership in key sectors make it an increasingly present bet in global portfolios. In the long term, smart capital is clear: Europe is back at the center of the map.

Could the Dollar Lose Its Status as the Ultimate Safe-Haven Asset?

| For Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

After pressure from the White House on the Fed Chair, the U.S. dollar weakened, starting the week at a low. According to experts, it’s not just this tension that is taking a toll on the greenback—protectionist policies from the Trump administration are also weighing on it. This is clearly being felt in its exchange with other currencies: the euro has reached $1.15, levels not seen in three years. As a result, some asset managers are looking further ahead and suggest that, after having reigned supreme in international trade, the dollar’s status as a safe-haven asset is now being called into question.

The interpretation so far, according to asset managers, is that the dollar weakened sharply during the first quarter of the year, as the “Trump Trade”—higher rates, stronger U.S. equity performance, and a rising dollar—collapsed after the inauguration on January 20.

“With the first tariff announcements targeting Mexico and Canada as key trade partners, U.S. political uncertainty rose sharply. The collapse in consumer and business confidence increased expectations of rate cuts in the U.S., narrowing the yield gap between the U.S. and its major peers. The plunge in the USD DXY worsened after the tariff announcement on April 2, causing it to fall 5% year-to-date,” explains Thomas Hempell, Head of Macro Research at Generali AM (part of Generali Investments), regarding the dollar’s weakening.

Reasons for Its Weakness
The recent drop in the DXY index below the 99 level, reaching lows not seen since early 2022 around 98.2 points, underscores the growing uncertainty in financial markets. According to Claudio Wewel, currency strategist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, the dollar has shown a downward trend in recent weeks, as U.S. activity indicators have pointed to weakness due to high political and macroeconomic uncertainty. In contrast, he notes that hard data remain strong, with a resilient U.S. labor market. “We have adopted a cautious stance on the dollar, especially following President Trump’s announcement of very high reciprocal tariffs on U.S. trading partners, which in our view represents a significant recession risk,” acknowledges Wewel.

For his part, Thomas Hempell states that, with U.S. exceptionalism eroding rapidly and the effective dollar still expensive, they expect the U.S. currency to continue retreating in the coming months. “Amid growing cyclical concerns, the Fed will be more willing to overlook the inflationary impact of tariffs and will maintain a dovish bias to the detriment of the dollar,” he adds.

Loss of Confidence
For Marco Giordano, Chief Investment Officer at Wellington Management, the erosion of U.S. institutional integrity could further weaken the dollar’s status as a reserve currency and disrupt global capital flows. “The dollar and U.S. Treasuries have more than completely reversed the move since the November 2024 elections. The euro, yen, and Swiss franc have continued to appreciate against the dollar, as investors seek safe-haven currencies amid rising geopolitical uncertainty,” says Giordano.

Beyond short-term movements, what worries analysts is the questioning of the dollar’s role as a global reserve asset. According to a report by Eduardo Levy Yeyati, Chief Economic Advisor at Adcap, since January, the DXY has fallen more than 8%, hitting a three-year low. “Unlike past episodes, the dollar is not acting as a safe haven. In fact, it has depreciated against the yen, the Swiss franc, and gold — a sign of structural loss of confidence,” he notes.

According to their in-house report, the narrative from the Trump administration — which sees the “exorbitant privilege” as a barrier to competitiveness — has sparked fears of even more uncoordinated fiscal and monetary policy. “Investors are already contemplating extreme scenarios: tariffs on foreign purchases of Treasuries, capital controls, withdrawal from the IMF, and even selective defaults as a political tool. All of which could bring irreparable damage to the international financial system — just as we suspect the tariffs already have to trade,” Yeyati adds in the report.

The main hypothesis is a growing distrust in the dollar, a situation with consequences that are difficult to gauge and that would benefit alternative currencies such as gold. After reigning supreme in international trade, the dollar’s status is being questioned. In fact, its share in central bank reserves has dropped from 65% in 2016 to 57% in 2024, according to the IMF. To replace it, central banks around the world have rushed to gold, explains Alexis Bienvenu, fund manager at La Financière de l’Échiquier.

In Bienvenu’s view, the gradual distancing from the dollar is now joined by the U.S.’s willingness to loosen the constraints surrounding a reference currency. “This status, which ensures unrelenting demand, automatically results in structural overvaluation and thus a loss of competitiveness for exports. The core of the Trump administration’s economic objective is to correct this situation. In principle, the depreciation of the dollar — including pressuring the Fed to prematurely cut interest rates — would help boost goods exports. This policy could even lead to a concerted devaluation of the dollar, as rumors surrounding the mysterious ‘Mar-a-Lago accords’ suggest. From this perspective, gold would play a safe-haven role, since no one can devalue it. Hence its appeal,” concludes the fund manager.

Associated Risks
Looking ahead, Quásar Elizundia, Market Research Strategist at Pepperstone, believes the dollar’s trajectory appears tied to a complex interplay of factors. “Trade policies and their impact on inflation and economic growth will continue to be key. However, the shadow of political interference in the Fed’s independence adds considerable risk. As long as uncertainty over the Fed’s independence persists, we are likely to see increased volatility and potential structural weakness for the U.S. dollar. The dollar’s status as the ultimate safe-haven asset can no longer be taken for granted; it is actively being put to the test,” Elizundia adds.

In Giordano’s view, one risk the Trump administration may face is that, due to the loss of trust, countries may be less willing to negotiate than in the past.

“This risk has been accelerated by the administration’s tariff announcement and is unlikely to dissipate even if some of these tariffs are paused for 90 days before implementation. There is a higher likelihood of rising economic nationalism and capital repatriation. We expect this announcement to be the trigger — or at least the accelerator — of net capital outflows from U.S. financial assets toward global fixed income, which should imply significantly higher risk premiums and higher long-term bond yields for the U.S. Elsewhere, this could become a major technical factor supporting non-U.S. financial assets, with European, Japanese, and Chinese fixed income potentially benefiting from U.S. outflows,” he adds.

The latest report published by Ebury acknowledges that, as a main trend, we are seeing a rise in G10 currencies, including the euro. “Since Liberation Day, the euro has been the world’s best-performing currency, except for the Swiss franc, which suggests the eurozone is receiving a significant share of capital fleeing the U.S. Evidence of this is the euro’s rise even after the ECB’s dovish meeting, which should have been bearish for the common currency,” the report notes.

Robeco Expands Its 3D Active ETF Range with an Equity Fund Focused on Emerging Markets

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Robeco expands its 3D active ETF range with the launch of the 3D Emerging Markets UCITS ETF. According to the firm, this new fund combines the strengths of Robeco’s quantitative approach with a long-standing track record and experience in emerging markets. The ETF is listed on the London Stock Exchange, SIX Swiss Exchange, Frankfurt Stock Exchange, and Borsa Italiana.

The asset manager believes there is strong momentum among European investors for active ETFs, as they are highly valued for their versatility, performance, and accessibility. “The ETF offers investors a highly attractive alternative to passive ETFs by providing liquid and transparent access to emerging markets equities through Robeco’s proven Enhanced Indexing strategy,” they note.

Regarding the fund, they explain that it leverages a sophisticated quantitative approach to capitalize on the complexities of emerging markets. Its enhanced factor model uses robust metrics, while machine learning and natural language processing (NLP) signals help uncover short-term dynamics, improving the responsiveness of the strategy. The Enhanced Indexing that underpins the ETF allows for many small, yet meaningful, deviations from the index, using risk and ESG indicators to reduce potential downside risks.

“Our 3D active equity ETFs have been very well received by clients, and we have now expanded the range to include emerging markets alongside our current offerings, which provide exposure to developed markets in the U.S., Europe, and the rest of the world. Robeco brings 15 years of experience in managing quantitative emerging markets strategies, as well as in navigating the unique challenges and opportunities they present. Over this time, we’ve built a solid track record, refining our factor definitions and harnessing advances in computing power, machine learning, and natural language processing. With this launch, we are offering our quantitative emerging markets strategy in an efficient, transparent, and accessible format. The ETF strategy will focus on the most liquid stocks to ensure smooth execution, while capturing the unique alpha of this capability,” explains Nick King, Head of ETFs at Robeco.

A Clear Strategy, Innovation, and Scalable Models: The Three Keys for Asset Managers to Grow in the Alternatives Industry

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Despite this volatile context, alternative investments have experienced continuous growth. Alternative assets under management rose from $13.3 trillion at the end of 2021 to $17.6 trillion by mid-2024, and they are expected to reach $29.2 trillion by 2029. The industry is not only larger than before, but also increasingly diversified and sophisticated, blurring and merging the lines between traditional financial segments.

According to EY in its report “The EY Global Alternative Fund Survey”, based on a sample of 400 alternative fund managers and institutional investors, we are witnessing a robust growth landscape in terms of assets, supported by high investor satisfaction levels and ambitious expansion plans by alternative fund managers across North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific.

“Growth forecasts are also positive. Alternative fund managers and the investors who entrust their capital to them expect the coming years to bring continued growth and increased asset allocations. Infrastructure, private equity, and secondary funds are considered some of the asset classes with the greatest potential for the future,” the document notes.

According to the consulting firm, one of the most surprising findings of the survey is the crucial role that individual investors and their private capital funds are playing as a new frontier of growth in the industry. Moreover, it considers the demand for greater accessibility to be significant, but notes that the democratization of the sector also presents challenges. For EY, the need for education, regulatory compliance, and efficiency will force many alternative fund managers to make significant and far-reaching changes to their business models.

Despite this volatile context, alternative investments have experienced continuous growth. Alternative assets under management grew from $13.3 trillion at the end of 2021 to $17.6 trillion by mid-2024, and are expected to reach $29.2 trillion by 2029. The industry is not only larger than before, but also increasingly diversified and sophisticated, blurring and merging the boundaries between traditional financial segments.

According to EY in its report “The EY Global Alternative Fund Survey”, based on a sample of 400 alternative fund managers and institutional investors, the outlook is one of strong asset growth, supported by high investor satisfaction levels and ambitious expansion plans from alternative fund managers in North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific.

“Growth forecasts are also positive. Alternative fund managers and the investors who entrust their capital to them expect the coming years to bring continued growth and larger asset allocations. Infrastructure, private equity, and secondary funds are considered some of the asset classes with the greatest potential for the future,” the document states.

According to the consulting firm, one of the most surprising findings of the survey is the crucial role of individual investors and their private capital funds as a new frontier of growth in the industry. Furthermore, it notes the strong demand for accessibility, but also highlights that democratization brings new challenges. For EY, the need for education, regulatory alignment, and operational efficiency will require many alternative asset managers to undergo major, transformative changes to their business models.

Growth Drivers in the Industry

When discussing growth levers, the report points out that diversification is emerging as another key driver. “Many alternative fund managers are seeking to expand their range of investment options and take advantage of booming markets such as private credit or new technologies like tokenization. To ensure that diversification fuels growth—and not just complexity—creativity, investor engagement, and a clear strategy will be essential,” the report explains.

In this context, it is not surprising that artificial intelligence (AI) is a dominant theme in optimizing operating models and increasing productivity. According to EY, expectations are high and investment in AI is rising rapidly, but many questions remain about how to implement it effectively. In some cases, alternative fund managers and investors have surprisingly different expectations. “For AI to succeed in this sector, data, human talent, and investor support will be key,” the report notes.

EY’s Conclusion: Three Recurring Themes

As alternative fund managers and investors plan for profitable growth, EY‘s analysis reveals three recurring themes:

The need for a clear strategy
The importance of innovation
The implementation of scalable operating models—to optimize distribution, technology, talent, transparency, and trust

“The relevance of these factors is reinforced by the current market uncertainty, which is creating an increasingly dynamic competitive environment, characterized by rising strategic and operational challenges. Looking ahead, we foresee a potential blurring of traditional boundaries, greater fee pressure, and the emergence of asymmetric market dynamics similar to those long seen in traditional asset management,” the report states.

To survive and thrive in this dynamic environment, EY offers a clear yet complex piece of advice: firms must embrace transformation without losing the qualities that make them unique—or the capabilities that have driven their success so far.

Trying to Understand U.S. Tariffs on Mexico

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In Recent Months, the Trump Administration Has Imposed Four Different Types of Tariffs on Mexico, resulting in an average duty of up to 23%. But none of this is static—because to the political equation, we now have to add the unpredictability of business reactions. Analysts at BBVA México—Diego López, Carlos Serrano, and Samuel Vázquez—try to piece together the puzzle in a recent report.

A Summary of the Situation

So far, Mexico has been hit with tariffs in four areas: migration and fentanyl, the automotive sector, steel and aluminum, and beer. It’s worth noting that Mexico was excluded from the “reciprocal” tariff package announced on April 2 due to its free trade agreement with the U.S., the USMCA.

As of now, there is a crucial data point: in 2024, Mexico exported $505.9 billion to the United States. Of that total, 48.9% was conducted under USMCA, while 51.1% was outside the agreement.

This means that more than half of Mexican exports would currently face a tariff of at least 25%, a considerable tariff burden. On top of that, some sectors face additional tariffs. For instance, automotive exports not routed through USMCA are subject to a combined tariff of 50%.

Summarizing with year-end 2024 data:

19.1% of exports face a 50% tariff
55.4% face a 25% tariff
Only 25.6% are duty-free

With this distribution, Mexico’s weighted average tariff rate stands at 23.4%.

But Everything Could Change

Analysts at BBVA México believe this initial assessment could shift significantly if exporters—who previously avoided using USMCA due to the administrative burden of proving rules of origin compliance—begin to reconsider.

Although it’s not yet clear how many companies will adopt the agreement, a more intensive use of USMCA is anticipated.

In the automotive sector, it is expected that exporters will soon begin systematically documenting U.S. content, allowing for tariff deductions and a significant reduction in the fiscal burden.

A plausible scenario is that, by factoring in the average U.S. content (18.3%) in Mexican automotive exports, the overall average tariff could soon fall to 13.1%.

If, in addition, Mexico reaches the historical high of 64.2% of exports channeled through USMCA, the tariff could be reduced further. And if the Trump administration agrees to lower migration and fentanyl-related tariffs to 12%, the average rate could drop to 8.4%.

Toward an Unexpected Scenario

All this could lead to an unforeseen scenario: Mexico could become one of the countries facing the lowest levels of U.S. protectionism globally.

For now, the Mexican government and its businesses are moving toward an administrative and logistical restructuring to adapt to the new landscape—while evaluating the opportunities opening up, especially considering that U.S. tariffs on China exceed those on Mexico in all scenarios.

To access the full report, click here.

Warren Buffett Announces His Retirement as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway

| For Magdalena Martínez | 0 Comentarios

Financial analysts were eagerly anticipating the annual shareholders meeting of Berkshire Hathaway on Saturday, May 3, curious to hear what Warren Buffett would say about President Donald Trump’s tariff war. But Buffett, 94, surprised everyone with a different announcement: nothing less than his retirement.

“Tomorrow we have a Berkshire board meeting, and we have eleven directors. Two of the directors, my children Howie and Susie, know what I’m going to talk about. For the rest, it will be news. But I believe the time has come for Greg to become the company’s CEO by the end of this year,” said Buffett.

On Sunday, May 4, The Wall Street Journal featured the magnate’s photo on its front page with the headline: “There Will Never Be Another Warren Buffett.”

Buffett led Berkshire Hathaway for 60 years, during which time he became an icon—or an “oracle”—of investing. He will be succeeded as CEO by Greg Abel, 63, the current Chief Executive Officer of Berkshire Hathaway Energy.

Buffett emphasized that he will not sell a single share of his company, which in 2024 reached a market capitalization of approximately $1.2 trillion. He also stated that he will remain available as an advisor.

Trade Policy Should Not Be a Weapon

During the company’s shareholder meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, Buffett defended global trade and expressed criticism of the protectionist policies of current U.S. President Donald Trump: “We should engage in world trade along with other countries, and we should do what we do best—and do it well,” said the billionaire.

“I don’t think it’s a good idea to design a world where a few countries say, ‘Ha, ha, ha! We won!’ and the rest feel envy,” Buffett added. “Trade should not be a weapon.”

Berkshire Swimming in a Sea of Liquidity

Buffett is stepping down from the helm of the company as its stock hits all-time highs. The last snapshot of the company before the unexpected announcement shows a strong accumulation of liquidity.

As of its March 31 balance sheet, Berkshire held significant positions in cash and short-term Treasury bonds.

According to Bloomberg, Buffett’s personal fortune is estimated at around $170 billion.

Neither “Restrictive” nor “Neutral”: The ECB Strips Its Monetary Policy of Labels and Sticks to the Data

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The European Central Bank (ECB) has responded to rising economic risks and the deterioration of financing conditions in the euro area with a new deposit rate cut to 2.25%. The decision was unanimous. However, the most noteworthy aspect was ECB President Christine Lagarde’s perspective on the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policies on the eurozone economy—and what that means for the ECB.

Despite this, Ulrike Kastens, Senior Economist for Europe at DWS, highlighted that Lagarde did not commit in advance to any future interest rate path. “The high level of uncertainty still demands a focus on data dependence and meeting-by-meeting decisions, especially since the impact of the tariff policy is unclear. While downside risks to the economy dominate, the impact on inflation is less certain, as it also depends, for example, on potential EU retaliatory measures,” Kastens noted.

According to her analysis, unlike the post-March meeting statement, it was not declared that monetary policy is “significantly less restrictive.” “For Lagarde, labels like ‘restrictive’ or ‘neutral’ are not helpful to characterize monetary policy because, in a world full of disruptions, monetary policy must be calibrated to achieve sustainable price stability. That is the only destination,” the DWS economist emphasized.

Lale Akoner, Global Markets Analyst at eToro, agreed with Kastens that the biggest surprise was that the ECB no longer labeled monetary policy as “restrictive” in its statement, though it also did not claim to have entered “neutral” territory. In her view, this change suggests the possibility of further rate cuts amid rising political uncertainty stemming from U.S. tariff decisions and their impact on European growth.

“Given the growing political uncertainty worldwide, the ECB is expected to adopt a more data-dependent approach, similar to the Fed. Nonetheless, while tariffs pose downside risks to growth, increased European spending on defense and infrastructure could partially offset them. If rising deficits threaten debt sustainability, the ECB may have to resume large-scale bond purchases through its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI),” Akoner explained.

What Comes Next?

According to Konstantin Veit, Portfolio Manager at PIMCO, it’s clear that downside risks to growth currently outweigh concerns over temporary price increases or the state of public finances. He recalled that Lagarde stated, “There is no better time to depend on the data,” reaffirming that decisions will continue to be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, and that data flows will determine the future path of monetary policy.

Looking ahead, Veit considers it likely that official rates will continue to gradually fall and that the ECB is not yet done with rate cuts. “The current pricing of the terminal rate, around 1.55%, suggests a slightly accommodative destination for the deposit facility rate. In June, with new staff projections, the ECB should be in a better position to determine whether a clearly stimulative policy will be necessary,” he said.

Orla Garvey, Senior Fixed Income Manager at Federated Hermes, noted that Lagarde balanced her changes in language. “The disinflation process is seen as ongoing, and growth is under short-term pressure, which likely supports current market pricing for rate cuts. This is consistent with the progress already made on inflation, and the impact of a stronger currency and lower oil prices. The ECB continues to keep all options open without committing in advance to any specific interest rate path,” Garvey explained.

Roelof Salomons, Chief Strategist at the BlackRock Investment Institute, also agreed that the direction of interest rates remains downward, though he sees some roadblocks. “The ECB may need to adjust its path to respond to both the tariff pass-through and fiscal stimulus in Europe, without much new data since the last meeting to guide decisions. President Lagarde appeared more concerned about growth risks than inflation,” Salomons said after the ECB’s April meeting.

In Salomons’ words: “When you’re running downhill, sometimes you have to keep running not to fall.” In the short term, he sees a slightly higher probability of the ECB cutting rates below the neutral level, which he currently estimates at around 2%. In the long term, however, he acknowledges that increased fiscal spending will raise borrowing needs and push neutral rates higher. “The global economy has endured several shocks. Tariff uncertainty is another one affecting both demand and supply, raising the cost of capital. Europe is not immune, but remains a relative beacon of stability thanks to strong balance sheets and policymakers’ ability (and willingness) to respond. Greater unity and a pro-growth agenda in Europe could significantly boost demand,” concluded the BlackRock expert on the challenge facing the ECB.

At Amundi, they expect the ECB to continue cutting rates until its official interest rate reaches 1.5%. And, if financial conditions continue to tighten, they also expect the ECB to slow the pace of its balance sheet reduction. All of this aligns with macroeconomic expectations which, according to the analysis of Mahmood Pradhan, Head of Global Macro at Amundi Investment Institute, are characterized by a disinflation process that is on track and growth prospects that have deteriorated due to rising trade tensions.

“The eurozone economy has developed some resilience to global shocks, but growth prospects have deteriorated due to increasing trade tensions. The rise in uncertainty is likely to dampen household and business confidence, and the adverse and volatile market reaction to trade tensions may have a restrictive impact on financing conditions. These factors may continue to weigh on the eurozone’s economic outlook,” concludes Pradhan.

The Long Road of the Fed and Jerome Powell Until the End of His Term in May 2026

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From Donald Trump’s first term (2017–2021), we know that he favors low interest rates and a not overly strong dollar—two ideas that now appear to clash with the work Jerome Powell has done at the helm of the Federal Reserve since February 2018. His current term as Chair of the central bank ends in May 2026, though he will remain a Governor until February 2028. Without a doubt, the controversy between Trump and Powell is heating up, particularly after Powell’s recent speech on April 16 at the Economic Club of Chicago, where he addressed U.S. economic prospects.

In his address, Powell emphasized that the U.S. economy remains in a solid position, though he acknowledged that it faces downside risks due to uncertainty generated by trade policies, especially the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

“At the moment, we are in a good position to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustment in our monetary policy stance. We continue to analyze incoming data, the evolution of the economic outlook, and the balance of risks. We understand that high levels of unemployment or inflation can be harmful and painful for communities, families, and businesses. We will continue doing everything in our power to achieve our goals of maximum employment and price stability,” concluded Powell.

Beyond this tempered conclusion, Powell delivered key messages about the relationship between monetary policy and the Trump administration’s tariff strategy:

“As we better understand changes in policy, we will gain a clearer view of their implications for the economy and therefore for monetary policy. It is very likely that tariffs will generate at least a temporary increase in inflation. The inflationary effects could also be more persistent. Avoiding that outcome will depend on the magnitude of those effects, how long they take to fully pass through to prices, and ultimately on keeping long-term inflation expectations well anchored.”

Juan José del Valle, analyst at Activotrade, remarked:

“Powell’s Wednesday speech raised doubts about the economic outlook, and Trump’s harsh tone toward the Fed Chair—calling into question the institution’s independence—led the Nasdaq to fall more than 3% during the session.”

Trump’s Response

President Donald Trump responded the following day, expressing his displeasure with Powell for not lowering interest rates and even suggesting his removal. According to international news agencies, the White House is reportedly evaluating the dismissal of the Fed Chair. Bloomberg reported that Kevin Hassett, economic advisor to the White House, said: “The president and his team continue to study the matter.”

This isn’t Trump’s first criticism of the Fed. Earlier this month, he criticized the central bank’s “slowness” in lowering rates via a post on Truth Social, and recently labeled the Fed’s reports a “complete disaster,” accusing Powell of “playing politics” by not adjusting interest rates—especially compared to the ECB, which has implemented multiple cuts.

The Stakes for the Fed

Experts warn that this political pressure from the White House adds to the already challenging situation the Fed faces: balancing inflation and growth risks.

“The bank appears focused on preventing the unanchoring of inflation expectations. The latest New York Fed survey highlighted this risk, showing that Americans’ short-term inflation expectations have risen significantly, while economic outlooks have sharply deteriorated.”

However, U.S. retail sales offered a more reassuring signal—though the figures were driven in part by early household purchases ahead of tariff implementation. The true impact of the trade war may take time to reflect in economic data. Still, uncertainty is already weighing on businesses: visibility has plummeted, and order books are thinning, as shown by ASML’s figures.

Some firms are directly on the front lines of the trade war: Nvidia is expected to take a $5.5 billion asset loss due to the ban on exporting its H20 chips to China, according to Edmond de Rothschild AM’s daily analysis.

Can the President of the Fed Be Dismissed?

According to the Federal Reserve’s own rules, the Chair cannot be dismissed for political reasons or policy disagreements. Under the Federal Reserve Act, Board members can only be removed “for cause”. However, the law does not explicitly define what that entails. Legal experts interpret “cause” to mean misconduct, inability to perform duties, corruption, extreme negligence, or legal violations.

“While legal scholars argue that a president cannot easily remove the Fed Chair, and Powell has stated he would not resign if asked by Trump, the latest comments from the White House are forcing investors to seriously consider the implications of a possible dismissal,” Bloomberg notes.

Historically, no Fed Chair has ever been removed. According to legal experts, any attempt to dismiss Powell for political reasons could trigger legal challenges, provoke a crisis of confidence, and prompt a negative market reaction as the institution’s independence is undermined.

United States, Canada, and Australia: The Countries With the Highest Stock Market Participation Rates

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At a time when financial markets are experiencing increasing volatility, household interest in stock markets remains a key indicator of economic confidence. Which countries invest the most? According to the latest study* by HelloSafe, the citizens of the United States, Canada, and Australia are the most active. After analyzing cultural, economic, and regulatory dynamics, the authors conclude that there are significant differences from one continent to another.

To understand the results of this report, it is necessary to take into account that the data presented on this map are the most recent available, and correspond to 2023 and 2024. “As there are no official statistics on the matter, there is a margin of error between 5% and 10% due to fluctuations in stock asset ownership and the difficulty of estimating the number of such owners. The figures include investors who directly own a stock portfolio, but also people who invest indirectly in stock assets through various financial vehicles (such as life insurance, for example),” clarify the authors of the report before we delve into its conclusions.

The analysis of stock ownership rates reveals marked disparities between continents since in North America, households have the highest rates, with 55% in the United States and 49% in Canada, reflecting a strong investment culture. Oceania follows this trend, with 37% in Australia and 31% in New Zealand. In Europe, there are significant differences as Nordic countries like Sweden (22%) and Finland (18.7%) are ahead of large economies like France (15.1%) and Germany (14.2%).

In Asia, rates remain globally modest, despite the dynamism of financial centers such as Hong Kong (13.8%) and Japan (15.2%). Lastly, emerging countries in Latin America and Africa, such as Brazil (8%) and Morocco (0.5%), present much lower levels, illustrating still-developing financial markets.

Pauline Laurore, finance expert at HelloSafe, explained: “The difference in stock market participation between countries can be explained by a combination of structural factors. In countries like the United States and Canada, investment in equities is deeply integrated into retirement savings plans —through pension funds— and supported by strong tax incentives. The financial culture there is more developed, and access to markets is facilitated by low-cost platforms and favorable regulation. In contrast, in many emerging countries, financial infrastructures are less mature, investment products are not widespread, and savings are still mainly channeled into real estate or low-risk assets. Even in highly populated countries like India and China, the low level of stock market penetration (6–7%) shows that there is considerable growth potential, provided educational, technological, and institutional obstacles are overcome.”

The analysis of the absolute number of shareholders reveals significant differences between countries in terms of demographics and economic development. In North America, the United States dominates with more than 185 million investors, far ahead of Canada, with 19 million. In Asia, although the proportion of investors is lower, the volume is impressive due to population: China (98.7 million) and India (85.8 million) rank among the global leaders.

In Europe, the figures are more modest despite advanced economies: the United Kingdom (22 million) and Germany (11.8 million) stand out, while France has 10.2 million holders. In Latin America, Brazil stands out with 17.1 million investors, far ahead of its neighbors. Finally, in Africa, South Africa leads the list with 8.47 million investors, which contrasts with much lower figures in Morocco (189,500). These figures reveal the combined influence of standard of living, investment culture, and demographic weight.

U.S., India, and Brazil: The Three Best Stock Market Performers of the Last 10 Years

An analysis of annualized returns over the past 10 years shows that the United States, with the S&P 500, remains at the top with a return of 16.89%, making it one of the most profitable indices of the period. Emerging markets, especially Brazil and India, closely follow, with returns near 15.9%, offering attractive potential despite their volatility. Vietnam and New Zealand also stood out with respectable, though more moderate, returns (12.22% and 10.66%, respectively).

In contrast, markets such as the United Kingdom (2.67%) and Spain (1.65%) performed significantly worse, suggesting less dynamic growth during the period. Other European countries like Portugal (1.71%) and France (5.93%) also underperformed compared to their global counterparts.

The HelloSafe study analyzes, in a new report, the rate of household participation in the stock market across 32 countries worldwide. This study examines countries where households allocate a significant portion of their savings to equities and other investment products.

Active ETFs vs Equally-Weighted: How to Maximize the Rotation Towards U.S. Mid and Small Caps

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The popularity of equally weighted ETFs is on the rise, with inflows into such strategies reaching net flows of $15.2 billion in 2024, a 289% increase compared to the $3.9 billion in 2023, according to Bloomberg data collected by JPMorgan Asset Management. However, according to an analysis by this firm, given the extreme levels of index concentration in the U.S. stock market, “it is crucial that investors fully understand the risks involved in shifting from a market capitalization-based approach to one based on equal weighting, particularly when active ETF options are also available.”

Divergences in Returns

Unlike the more traditional approach of weighting stocks based on each company’s market capitalization, equally weighted indices assign each stock the same weight in an index. Consequently, equally weighted ETFs give the same importance to all listed companies they invest in, regardless of their size. Therefore, they maintain underweighted positions in large companies and overweight positions in smaller names compared to their market-capitalization-weighted counterparts.

“Nonetheless, since the market capitalization and equal-weight versions of the S&P 500 have exactly the same components, historically the returns of both indices have been highly correlated,” according to JP Morgan AM’s analysis. More recently, however, this relationship has broken as the performance of the market-capitalization-weighted S&P 500 has been dominated by the Magnificent Seven. This handful of stocks currently represents about one-third of the market-cap-weighted S&P 500, but in the equally weighted index, where each of the 500 stocks receives only a 0.2% weight, the resulting allocation to the Magnificent Seven is just 1.4%.

The increasingly skewed risk profile of the two benchmark indices is leading to much greater differentiation in returns. The report notes that the strong market rotation in July 2024, for example, “helped the equally weighted S&P 500 post its strongest month in three years compared to its market-cap-weighted counterpart. At the same time, the traditional return correlation between the two indices hit its lowest level ever recorded.”

The Broadening of U.S. Equity Markets Favors an Active Approach

The study raises the possibility that the corporate earnings trends that have been driving the U.S. equity market may be starting to change, “with an earnings dynamic increasingly pointing towards a trend of earnings and results broadening.”

Thus, “it is likely that full-year 2024 earnings growth figures will continue to show a significant disparity between large-cap stocks and the rest, but the most recent quarterly results suggest that U.S. earnings are gradually becoming more evenly distributed across the market.”

The question, the firm notes, for investors is how best to position their portfolios to capitalize on these earnings trends. One way to do this is by investing in equally weighted ETFs, “which can offer diversification by reducing concentration in large-cap stocks.” However, this type of strategy “also introduces significant active risk without taking into account the differing prospects of individual companies.”

In contrast, the allocation to active ETFs, which allow portfolios to reflect strategic allocation decisions based on company fundamentals and market conditions, could lead to more optimal results. Active ETFs can offer tailored exposure to sectors and styles and potentially generate superior long-term returns, “while allowing investors to better align their portfolio exposure with their risk and return objectives,” as noted in the study.

Actively Investing in U.S. Equities with ETFs

Active alpha can play an especially critical role in equity portfolios when the future direction of the stock market is uncertain and more differentiated stock-level performance is expected. Currently, with the prospect of a broadening of returns in the U.S. equity market, active strategies can help investors access opportunities beyond the largest stocks.