Photo: maxpixel CC0. The Fed is Looking to Prepare a Plan to Stop Reducing its Balance
The Federal Reserve, which at its meeting on January 29 and 30 decided to keep the reference rate unchanged, said in its minutes, published this Wednesday, that there is greater concern about the risks to the economic growth of the US and that it is open to preparing a plan to stop reducing its balance.
The FOMC continued with the message that it would be “patient” to decide when and how to adjust policy to a growing set of risks, including the slowdown in growth in China and Europe, Brexit, trade negotiations and the effects of the five-week shut-down of the United States government, pointing out to a wait and see aproach about how the economy unfolds with the current policy, indicating that for now it has suspended interest rate increases.
The minutes also show that they are prepared to be more flexible in reducing their overall balance, made up of a 4 trillion dollars portfolio of bonds and other assets: “Almost all participants thought that it would be desirable to announce before too long a plan to stop reducing the Federal Reserve’s asset holdings later this year.” they point out.
Photo: Onsen. Multi-Asset Funds did Not Work in 2018 because they Largely Replicated what Advisers Were Doing Themselves
Multi-asset funds failed to protect investors from the impact of volatile equity markets in 2018, according to the Natixis IM Global Portfolio Barometer.
Adviser portfolios delivered negative returns across all regions, driven by falls in equity markets. But the analysis of investor portfolios in seven markets, conducted by the Natixis Portfolio Research & Consulting Group, found that multi-asset funds did not provide diversification as expected, and instead had very high correlations to adviser portfolios. This suggests multi-asset funds largely replicated what advisers were doing themselves.
Equities were the largest contributor to negative returns in all regions, costing around 3-5% on average – except in Italy, where advisers had much lower equity allocations. However, multi-asset funds were the second largest detractor, costing 0.5-2% on average, and particularly affecting France, where these funds have traditionally been very popular.
Alternative investments, like real estate and managed futures, were more resilient to volatility than traditional asset classes, but still contributed marginally to portfolio performance at best, due to lacklustre performance and low allocations. Real assets contributed little except in the UK, where property funds were a positive contributor to portfolios.
Matthew Riley, Head of Research in the Portfolio Research and Consulting Group at Natixis IM, commented: “It’s natural for investors to seek shelter from volatile markets by diversifying portfolios, but it is clear from our analysis that, in 2018, the majority of multi-asset funds fell short and largely failed to diversify, which only added to portfolio losses”.
“Our findings show that investors really need to look more closely when selecting a multi-asset fund, ensuring that the fund is aligned with their investment objective. This due diligence should include checking the fund’s correlation to their existing portfolios, as well as to bonds and equities, to make sure it will improve the risk-return profile of the portfolio.”
Italy showing most resilience to volatile markets
In stark contrast to 2017, advisers in all regions suffered negative portfolio performance in 2018 with the impact of falling equity markets and muted fixed income returns taking their toll. Italy was the most resilient market, with estimated losses of 3.2% for the average adviser portfolio, due to a much lower allocation to equities. Advisers in Italy had an average equity exposure of just 20%, while the UK and the US had a more bullish stance, with equity weightings of over 50% in moderate risk portfolios.
Currency risk continues to weigh on portfolios
In 2017, the Global Portfolio Barometer revealed the impact of currency risk on performance. And, while slightly reduced, it remained an important factor in 2018, benefitting European investors compared to their US counterparts. Currency moves remain an often overlooked area of risk, but when considering a more internationally exposed portfolio, not paying attention to it can have a significant impact on overall returns. For instance, in 2018 a European investor allocating to US equities would have experienced a small positive return of 0.3% in euro terms – a US investor would have lost 5%.
The quest for true diversification continues…
In short, the findings of the Global Portfolio Barometer highlight the impact that the return of volatility had on markets and investor portfolios, with portfolio risks potentially rising from the extraordinarily low levels seen in 2017. Multi-asset funds simply failed to provide diversification, which should be food for thought when considering the relationship between diversification, risk and returns in adviser portfolios.
The Mirabaud Group, the banking and finance group founded in Geneva in 1819, has obtained the necessary authorisations from the Central Bank of Uruguay to open two Wealth Management subsidiaries. Both located in Montevideo, Mirabaud Advisory (Uruguay) SA will offer Mirabaud’s services to local clients, while Mirabaud International Advisory (Uruguay) SA will provide services to clients from other Latin American countries.
These openings strengthen Mirabaud’s wealth management presence and follow the creation of Mirabaud Asset Management (Brasil) Ltda in São Paulo earlier in the year which marked Mirabaud’s arrival on the South American continent. Both Uruguayan companies will be managed by Fabio Kreplak, with the support of Thiago Frazao, Limited Partner. According to the company, these openings represent a further step in Mirabaud’s international development strategy.
Nicolas Mirabaud, Managing Partner and Head of Wealth Management for the Mirabaud Group, is “delighted with the opening of these two new subsidiaries in Mirabaud’s bicentenary year. For 200 years Mirabaud has always focused on serving the interests of its clients and protecting their assets by offering them investment solutions tailored to their needs. In recent years our Latin American client base has grown, so it was natural for us to establish a presence closer to them in order to serve them better. Opening these subsidiaries in South America once again demonstrates that Mirabaud maintains its entrepreneurial family spirit.”
Thiago Frazao, Head of Wealth Management for the LATAM market, emphasises how “Mirabaud’s diversified and personalised offering meets the needs of clients looking for confidence, stability and financial performance. Mirabaud is present on four continents and in ten countries and can call on a network of experts covering the various fields of wealth management. With their comprehensive knowledge of the South American market and Swiss wealth management expertise, Fabio Kreplak and his team are fully integrated into the Mirabaud culture and approach.”
Fabio Kreplak, who gained extensive experience in Latin America at UBS and then at Julius Baer, is “honoured to join Mirabaud and contribute to its development from Montevideo. Mirabaud has an excellent reputation among finance professionals, who recognise the firm’s tailor-made approach, international expertise and standards of excellence, which are essential assets in a booming Latin American market. Our clients will be able to benefit from the full range of investments and services offered by the Wealth Management team.”
The team based in Montevideo is expected to reach half a dozen employees during the course of this year.
Foto: NPS CC0. Investors Trust Opens Insurer in Puerto Rico
Investors Trust welcomes ITA International Insurer, the most recent member of its group. International Insurer is an insurance company in Puerto Rico, a jurisdiction that the firm considers ideal for insurers and reinsurers in Latin America, Europe and other international markets.
“As a United States Commonwealth, Puerto Rico’s free market economy is subject to both federal and state regulations designed to protect free market-competition; specifically, but not limited to, the insurance and banking industries. This position further stabilizes Puerto Rico as an attractive domicile for international insurance business and provides legal peace of mind for companies and individuals.” said the company in a statement.
Investors Trust has also established an International Financial Entity (IFE) in Puerto Rico to consolidate all banking and custody transactions for the group of insurance companies, ITA International Financial Services Corporation.
“The need for greater diversity and new jurisdictions has led Investors Trust to reposition itself as a multi-jurisdictional insurance group. With the establishment of ITA International Insurer in Puerto Rico, clients now have more options to choose a plan based on their specific needs and preferences.” said the company that anticipates further growth in 2019 to support their multijurisdictional structure.
En 2018 el patrimonio de las IICs en España se situó en 454.761 millones de euros, una 2% menos que en 2017. Además, el número de partícipes y de accionistas ha continuado incrementándose en el año y se situó a finales de 2018 en 13,9 millones, un 6,8% más que el año anterior.
La renta fija ha continuado reduciendo su peso en la cartera y ya supone menos de la mitad (47,8%). Por su parte, la posición en renta variable en cartera ha continuado incrementándose en el periodo y supone el 15,6% frente al 14,3% de 2017. “Vamos hacia una normalización desde la asignación a renta fija corto plazo a la renta variable, pero todavía estamos lejos de países como Reino Unido donde el 50% está en acciones”, ha argumentado Lázaro de Lázaro, presidente de la agrupación de IIC de Inverco, durante un encuentro con periodistas.
En cuanto a rentabilidades, la elevada volatilidad presente en los mercados financieros durante 2018 ha llevado a los fondos de inversión a registrar rendimientos negativos en el año, siendo la rentabilidad interanual para el conjunto de fondos del -4,81%.
Perspectivas para 2019
Inverco pronostica que la rentabilidad de las IIC (Instituciones de Inversión Colectiva) en 2019 se sitúe entre el 2% y el 2,5% y las suscripciones netas continúen con la tendencia positiva de los últimos años. La patronal espera, además, que los fondos de inversión incrementen su patrimonio en torno a 13.500 millones de euros, un 5,2% más, alcanzando a finales de este año los 271.000 millones de euros. Por su parte, las IIC extranjeras incrementarían su patrimonio hasta los 176.000 millones de euros, lo que supone un incremento del 4,8%.
En cuanto al volumen de los fondos de pensiones podría aumentar en 2019 en casi 3.000 millones de euros (un crecimiento del 2,8%), cerrando el año en un patrimonio de 110.000 millones de euros. Además, se espera que la rotación hacia activos de más riesgo se traduzca también en rentabilidades más altas en el medio y largo plazo. “Los fondos de pensiones mixtos han pasado de representar el 29% al 58% y esto en el largo plazo va a producir mayores rentabilidades. Hay un poquito más de apetito por el riesgo y eso se ve en los planes de pensiones”, explica Juan José Cotorruelo, director de Vida y Pensiones de Caser.
Una tendencia que también se observa en fondos de inversión. Mientras que en 2007 casi el 64% del patrimonio de los fondos de inversión pertenecía a vocaciones conservadoras (39% monetarios y renta fija a corto plazo y 25% garantizados), en diciembre de 2018 apenas el 31% del ahorro en fondos se canaliza a través de este tipo de instrumentos.
¿Quién invierte en fondos de inversión en España?
Como novedad este año Inverco ha analizado el tipo de inversor que adquiere fondos de inversión entre los distintos países europeos. Así, por ejemplo, mientras que en España el 62% del volumen de activos total de los fondos pertenece a los hogares, en países como Francia o Alemania este porcentaje es del 26%, donde la mayor parte del patrimonio de los fondos está en manos de inversores institucionales.
Pixabay CC0 Public Domainpadrinan. What Can Investors Expect From China in Year of the Pig?
This month China started the year of the pig. In the Asian tradition, this is an animal directly related to fortune because of its nobility and fertility. Will this lunar new year bring fortune to investors or succulent returns to the Chinese stock market?
In the opinion of Michael Bourke, manager of the M&G (Lux) Global Emerging Markets fund, after a difficult year for stocks in 2018, “investors expect the new lunar year to generate better prospects for the Chinese stock market. The new year may typically be a time for optimism, but there remains a great uncertainty about the outlook for China. The country’s trade dispute with the United States dominates the headlines and the fear that US tariffs on Chinese products will begin to have a negative impact on the world’s second largest economy are worrying investors. Recent economic data has been weak, factory activity and exports are slowing, and last year the economy grew at 6.4%, its slowest pace since 1990.”
Hernando Lacave, manager at DIF Broker has the same concern: “In the year of the pig we will continue to talk about deceleration in China, where growth for 2019 is expected to fall to 6%. However, this is still much better than the 2.5% expected for the United States or 1.6% of the EMU, so bad macro data should not blind us since China will continue to be the engine of growth of the world economy.”
Investment experts warn that the commercial war is beginning to weigh on China, and although the slowdown started years ago, there are signs that this war is not only affecting the foreign sector but increasingly its internal economy. “Given the size of China, it is logical that it should no longer be treated as an emerging economy and be required to play with the same intellectual property rules than the rest of developed countries. In addition to the positives that an agreement would bring, bad macro data could be the catalyst needed for the Chinese Central Bank to launch incentives to keep growth for a long time, and they have margin to do so,” clarifies Lacave.
For managers, the important thing is that China continues to reorient its economic model from one based on investment in fixed assets to one driven by the growth of consumption, especially in the services sector. This transformation is being led by private companies that aim to generate profits and tend to be less capital intensive, unlike what happened during the boom of fixed assets, when state banks granted huge amounts of credit to other state entities and Real estate developers financed by the State. At Newton, part of BNY Mellon, when investing, they prefer to avoid those sectors. “Now that fixed assets have less weight in the Chinese economy, it is very likely that GDP growth will suffer. However, the growth registered will be of higher quality. We can expect the GDP to grow more slowly during this period of rebalancing, a change that, in our opinion, should not be detrimental to the more consumer-oriented areas of the economy, since the employment component of GDP will increase. The latest measures by the Chinese authorities have been aimed at making the lending more flexible and at supporting the middle classes through tax cuts,” explains Rob Marshall-Lee, Head of Asian and Emerging Equity at Newton.
Finally, Neil Dwane, global strategist at Allianz Global Investors, notes that “China’s high levels of debt and slower growth are likely to last beyond the New Year celebrations, but we believe that the Chinese government has the right tools to solve them. With China’s economy set to become the world’s largest, we believe that investors should think of China as an asset class.”
National commercial real estate investment firm Black Salmon announced that Grant Peterson has joined the company as senior associate of acquisitions. In this new role, he will focus on asset allocation strategies, researching venture and investment opportunities, as well as asset management of the firm’s investment portfolio.
Peterson brings to Black Salmon nearly a decade of experience in institutional acquisitions and asset management. His addition is a strategic next step in the company’s expansion plan, falling on the heels of the firm’s $28 million purchase of Bentley Commons at Keene, a high-performing senior housing asset in Keene, New Hampshire, in December 2018.
“We are thrilled to welcome Grant Peterson to the Black Salmon team, as he will bring added value to our acquisition model,” said Jorge Escobar, CEO and Managing Partner of Black Salmon. “Equipped with an impressive background, Grant’s expertise complements the firm’s bullish portfolio growth, which encompasses approximately $600 million in existing and planned assets throughout the U.S.”
Peterson’s career most recently includes a tenure at Crocker Partners, a vertically-integrated real estate and management firm, where he was responsible for identifying, pursuing and executing investment grade opportunities throughout the southeast U.S. During this time, he worked with some of the world’s most sophisticated capital partners, accumulating a total transaction volume of more than $500 million and $5 billion in opportunities evaluated.
Prior to joining Crocker Partners, Peterson was involved in the asset management of LNR Partners’ southeastern portfolio, which consisted of Real Estate Owned (REO) properties valued in excess of $400 million. Additionally, he contributed to the underwriting of more than $1.6 billion in both performing and non-performing commercial real estate debt across all property types, deepening his knowledge and expertise in the industry.
Peterson is a graduate of the University of Florida, where he received a master’s degree in real estate and a bachelor’s degree in management.
Christine Todd, foto cedida. Amundi Pioneer contrata una nueva directora administrativa senior y líder de renta fija US
Amundi Pioneer has announced the appointment of Christine Todd as Senior Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income, US.
Christine was previously President of Neighborly Investments in Boston, a technology-driven impact investment manager focused on customized municipal bond portfolios for institutional and high net worth investors. Prior to Neighborly, Christine was President of Standish Mellon Asset Management in Boston, a leading fixed income asset management firm. She headed Standish Mellon’s Tax Sensitive and Insurance investment platforms and managed portfolio management, credit research, trading, and client relations. Prior to joining Standish Mellon in 1995, she was a portfolio manager, trader and analyst at Gannett Welch & Kotler, a Boston investment firm.
Christine has a B.A. from Georgetown University and an M.B.A. from Boston University. She is a Chartered Financial Analyst.
Courtesy photo. Alex Calvo and Morgan Stanley Advisor Launch Asset Management Firm through Bolton
Global fixed income fund manager Alex Calvo has teamed with Marco Oreamuno to set up a wealth management firm through Bolton Global. Prior to joining Bolton, Oreamuno was a financial advisor with Morgan Stanley where he managed client assets of 230 million dollars. The team will operate under the name StratEdge Quant Investors in providing asset management services to ultra-high net worth individuals, family offices and institutional investors primarily in Latin America.
Calvo was formerly the Director of Global Fixed Income at Franklin Templeton Investments, where he directed all global macroeconomic and fixed income research and investments, overseeing over 14 Billion dollars in assets. At Franklin Templeton, he was a member of the Global Economic Committee and the Asset Allocation Committee. In 2010, he established Calvo Funds and managed the StratEdge Multi-Currency Bond Fund, which utilized macroeconomic analysis and financial engineering as part of a global macro strategy. He also served as Chief Fixed Income Strategist for Biscayne Americas Advisors, a Miami based asset management firm.
Oreamuno began working in the US at Merrill Lynch in 2004 where he was a financial advisor for 6 years in New York City. In 2010, he joined Morgan Stanley Smith Barney in New York and then transferred to the firm’s Miami office in 2016. Before moving to the US, he was a financial adviser with BN Valores Puesto de Bolsa in Costa Rica for 12 years managing portfolios for large financial institutions and ultra-high net worth individuals. He has also worked as an attorney with the law firm of Facio y Canas.
In addition to managing a client book of over 200 million dollares, the team will provide customized fixed income portfolios for the clients of other financial advisors affiliated with Bolton. According to a press release, “By having direct access to the international fixed income asset management capabilities of the StratEdge team, Bolton is enhancing its capabilities to provide cost effective fixed income solutions to a global clientele.”
Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. China to Join Bloomberg Barclays' Global Aggregate Index
Bloomberg has confirmed that Chinese RMB-denominated government and policy bank securities will be added to the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index starting April 2019 and phased in over a 20 month period. The inclusion is a result of the completion of several planned operational enhancements that were implemented by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration.
When fully accounted for in the Global Aggregate Index, local currency Chinese bonds will be the fourth largest currency component following the US dollar, euro and Japanese yen. Using data as of January 24, 2019 the index would include 363 Chinese securities and represent 6.03% of a $54.07 trillion index upon completion of the phase-in.
“Today’s announcement represents an important milestone on China’s path towards more open and transparent capital markets, and underscores Bloomberg’s long-term commitment to connecting investors to China,” said Bloomberg Chairman Peter T. Grauer. “With the upcoming inclusion of China in the Global Aggregate Index, China’s bond market presents a growing opportunity for global investors.”
The PBoC, Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration have completed a number of enhancements that were required for inclusion in the Global Aggregate Index in order to increase investor confidence and improve market accessibility. These include the implementation of delivery v. payment settlement, ability to allocate block trades across portfolios, and clarification on tax collection policies.
“It’s a pivotal time in the development of China’s markets and inclusion in our Global Aggregate Index is significant for facilitating Chinese market access for global investors,” said Steve Berkley, Global Head of Bloomberg Indices. “Our phased approach to inclusion is designed to give investors ample time to prepare for what we believe will be a positive impact on the investment community.”
In addition to the Global Aggregate Index, Chinese RMB-denominated debt will be eligible for inclusion in the Global Treasury and EM Local Currency Government Indices starting April 2019.
Bloomberg will create ex-China versions of the Global Aggregate, Global Treasury and EM Local Currency Government Indices for index users who wish to track benchmarks that exclude China. Bloomberg can also create customized versions of the indices as requested by investors.
