Scharf Investments Launches First UCITS Fund With iM Global Partner

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

Scharf-iM Global
Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Scharf Investments lanza el primer fondo UCITS junto a iM Global Partner

 iM Global Partner, a leading investment and development platform focused on acquiring strategic investments, and Scharf Investments, an investment firm providing high quality value investment strategies, have announced the launch of iM Scharf US Quality Value fund, the first collaborative UCITS fund between the two firms. The equity fund will seek to deliver compelling risk-adjusted absolute returns through a value-focused, fundamental, bottom-up approach.

The fund, which launched on September 12, 2019, will give investors outside of the US access to Scharf Investments’ expertise for the first time, facilitated by the unique business model of iM Global Partner who acquired a 40% interest in the California-based US equity value asset manager a few months ago.

iM Scharf US Quality Value Fund will be managed by Scharf’s experienced investment team, with a similar investment strategy to its core equity flagship product which has a proven track record spanning approximately 30 years.  The investment team looks for securities trading at significant discounts to estimated fair value as a margin of safety and high earnings predictability. The fund is not publicly offered to all investors in all jurisdictions.

Brian Krawez, President of Scharf Investments, said: “We are delighted with the launch of our first UCITS fund with iM Global Partner. It is a great opportunity for Scharf Investments to reach new markets and new investors. We look forward to working with iM Global Partner as we continue to develop and refine our worldwide presence.”
 
Jose Castellano, Deputy CEO and Head of International Distribution at iM Global Partner, added: “Scharf Investments is a proven leader in value-oriented equity asset management and has an exceptional track-record. Their core equity flagship strategy outperformed the Russell 1000 Value and the S&P500 by 3.5%, with lower volatility*. Their entry into the UCITS fund market will allow broader access to Scharf Investments products for institutional investors and we are thrilled to support their expansion internationally.”

Scharf Investments is a California-based investment firm founded in 1983. Managed by Brian Krawez, President and Investment Committee Chairman, the company has grown from 5 people and under $700m of assets under management in 2007 to 22 people and $3.3bn of assets under management today.
 
Scharf Investments currently manages four distinct strategies:

  • A long-only US equity strategy, the firm’s core equity strategy on which the three other strategies are based
  • A long-only multi-asset strategy
  • A long/short hedged US equity strategy
  • A long-only global equity strategy

iM Global Partner, with its unique business model in Europe, has become a leading investment and development platform focused on acquiring strategic investments in best-in-class traditional and alternative investment firms in the U.S., Europe and Asia. Through the launch of this new UCITS fund, iM Global Partner continues its development as it pursues its dual objectives to both support its Partners with its management and distribution expertise and ensure investors have access to unique strategies that were not previously available.

iM Global Partner currently has strategic minority investments in five partners, including two outstanding complementary US large-cap equity managers with proven track records and a focus on downside protection.

 

Bolton Hires another Morgan Stanley Advisor

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

Screen Shot 2019-11-11 at 1
Wikimedia CommonsFoto Marc Averette. Carusso

Randall Caruso-Reynoso has joined Bolton Global Capital.  Caruso was formerly with Morgan Stanley as a Senior Vice President since 2011 where he covered primarily Latin American clients. During his 17 years at Merrill Lynch International, he oversaw a book of ultra-high net worth clients, family offices, middle markets, and institutional clients in LatAm, MENA, and Western Europe.  Caruso’s business plan is to transition his global book of clients to BNY Mellon Pershing as custodian on behalf of Bolton.

Prior to joining Merrill Lynch in 1994, his career focused on international commercial banking, corporate finance, and capital markets. Beginning in 1981, he worked at Citibank‘s operations in New York, London, Italy, and Spain. From 1989 to 1994 he worked at Bankers Trust in New York and Miami.

At Citibank he participated in various projects including a proprietary acquisition in Italy, the opening of the capital markets and currency exchange operations in Spain, the restructuring of a 75 branch bank in Italy purchased by Citibank, the establishment of the Southern European Fixed Income trading desk at Citicorp Investment Bank Ltd. in London. At the Bankers Trust International Private Bank, he covered markets in Mexico and was promoted to Manager of the Southern Cone Region. He was also the 1st Derivative Coordinator for Bankers Trust’s LATAM Private Bank.

In a phone interview, Caruso commented, “I have always been exposed to the management of capital, either for Central Banks at Citibank as a Cash Management Officer, for Pension Funds as an Advisor to their Investment Committees, or to Families as their Financial Planner. My team and I bring all these years of resources, experience and knowledge to our Global Client base by establishing our business here at Bolton.”

Caruso completed his degree in Economics at New York University, where he studied under the tutelage of Nobel Laureate Wassily Leontief. He has three children and now lives between Miami and his native New York City.

Global Bond Investing in an Era of Negative Interest Rates

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

foto tipos interes
Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Invertir en bonos globales en una época de tipos de interés negativos

What once would have been considered a strange anomaly may now be becoming the norm as yields on a growing proportion of the global bond markets turned negative throughout 2019. The escalating US-China trade conflict, fears of a global economic slowdown and the aggressive accommodative monetary policy response by central banks to those developments have accelerated this trend in the middle of 2019, according to Colchester Global Investors.

This environment has resulted in the market yield on approximately US$11 trillion of government debt falling below zero percent as at the end of August, 2019. This accounted for approximately 37% of the universe of outstanding government debt at that time. Some 40% of this amount was issued by the Government of Japan, and a further 14% and 12% by the French and German Governments respectively.

As a result of the extensive quantitative easing programs undertaken by central banks, collectively it is estimated that they now hold approximately 80% of all negative yielding debt. Whilst negative central bank policy rates and negative bond yields on sovereign debt had been observed for some time, this phenomenon has not been restricted to government bonds alone. In recent months yields on an increasing number of corporate bonds have also turned negative, new corporate debt has been issued at those levels and even negative rate mortgages have been offered in Denmark. While not as prevalent, such declines have resulted in the yield on approximately 7% (US$1 trillion) of the universe of global corporate investment grade debt also falling below zero percent.

Mercados de bonos negativosShould investors hold negative-yielding bonds?

Given that negative yields imply an investor holding such a security to maturity will incur a loss (at least in nominal terms) does this imply that the ‘safe-haven’ characteristics of sovereign fixed income have been compromised? The evidence of the recent past would suggest not.

At Colchester they have observed that negative yields can become more negative in response to economic and political events and shifts in perceived risk levels. In other words, over the short term the returns to investors from ‘falling’ negative-yielding bonds may be positive as bond prices continue to appreciate. Indeed, many investors were surprised at the strength of the demand for safe-haven assets and the resulting size of the yield decline of already negatively yielding bonds during the most recent bout of risk aversion in the middle of 2019. For example, 10-year German Bund yields fell from -0.2% to -0.7% from mid-July to mid-August, returning +4.5% in USD hedged terms. Similarly, over the same period, 10-year Swedish bond yields fell from 0.1% to -0.4%, returning +3.0% in USD hedged terms.

This is not to argue that negative yielding bonds will always deliver positive returns, but simply highlights that the diversifying return characteristics of sovereign bonds still holds true in a negative interest rate world. Returns on a negative yielding bond may be positive or negative over the short term, just as they may be on a positive nominal yielding bond.

How is Colchester managing portfolios in the current environment?

Colchester continues to see the sovereign fixed income asset class as providing desirable diversification characteristics and specifically a negative correlation to risk assets. They believe that the events of mid 2019 suggest that despite the increasing prevalence of negative yields, this characteristic remains intact in the face of rising uncertainty and increased risk aversion. “The slowdown in global money and credit growth through 2017 and 2018 is likely to contain inflation in the near term and limit any large increase in bond yields. This benign environment is likely to be broadly supportive of bond prices and minimise the ‘cost’ of diversification insurance that may prove useful if the global economy, trade disputes or risk assets take a turn for the worse”.

Nonetheless at Colchester they are trying to limit their exposure to negative nominal yielding markets. “Instead we are skewing our portfolios towards markets that are offering positive real yields, that preferably also offer a positive nominal yield. Such markets are currently limited within the G10 or ‘traditional’ bond markets. It is tempting in such an environment to reach for yield by moving down the credit curve into subordinated or high yield debt, increasing exposure to emerging markets, or supplementing returns with an array of structured products. However, as all have a higher correlation with equity and other growth assets, this reduces the diversification benefit of holding bonds. Accordingly, we seek to build bond portfolios that not only offer higher relative real yields and attractive risk characteristics, but also maintain the diversifying integrity of a traditional bond market allocation. Therefore, while we are willing to add limited exposure to some non-traditional markets such as Singapore or Mexico, to benefit from their potentially higher real yields on offer and to offset some of the ‘insurance premium cost’, such exposure is limited to protect the diversification characteristics that most investors are looking for from their traditional sovereign bond allocations”.

Today their global bond portfolios are materially overweight versus benchmark those markets where they observe the most attractive prospective real yields. “Markets such as Norway, Singapore and Mexico, where both real and nominal yields are positive, feature in our portfolios. In contrast, the strategy is very underweight the euro area where both real and nominal yields are negative and our portfolios hold no exposure to German, French or Dutch bonds where yields are lowest. The strategy does however hold some exposure to negative nominal-yielding bonds, mostly in Japan. The Japanese market offers materially more attractive relative real yields than the core of Europe once we factor in the low level of projected inflation. Furthermore, the market exhibits very low levels of volatility. As we are looking to construct portfolios that in aggregate offer a balance between value (or expected return), liquidity and negative correlation to risk assets, it should be no surprise that despite their negative nominal yields, Japanese bonds have a role to play”.

Julius Baer Appoints New Head of Corporate Sustainability and Responsible Investment

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

tree-247122_1280
Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Julius Baer nombra a Yvonne Suter como su nueva directora de Sostenibilidad Corporativa e Inversión Responsable

Effective November 4th, 2019, Yvonne Suter took over as Head of Corporate Sustainability and Responsible Investment of Julius Baer. In this role, she is responsible for further developing the CSRI strategy of the Group across all business areas. She reports to both the CEO Office and the Bank’s Sustainability Board.   

Yvonne Suter joins Julius Baer from Credit Suisse, where she was Head of Sustainable Investment for the 5 past years and had held several leadership and management roles since 2005. She holds a Master in International Affairs and Governance from the University of St. Gallen.                  

Philipp Rickenbacher, CEO Julius Baer said: “I am delighted that we have been able to appoint Yvonne Suter, a proven expert, as the new Head of Corporate Sustainability and Responsible Investment. Thanks to her comprehensive knowledge and network, as well as her many years of experience, she has all the prerequisites for further developing Julius Baer in the areas of sustainability and responsible investment and expanding the Bank’s activities. This will further enable us to meet the ever-increasing demands in all aspects of sustainability: economic, social, as well as environmental.”

“After the Dotcom Bubble Burst Value Investing Enjoyed a Renaissance. We See No Reason Why History Will Not Once Again Repeat Itself”

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

boyar
Foto cedidaLeft to right, Mark A. Boyar and Jonathan Boyar. boyar

New York based Boyar Asset Management recently signed an alliance with the Spanish manager Mapfre AM, to benefit from their mutual capabilities and which will boost their businesses. In this interview with Funds Society, Jonathan Boyar, President of Boyar Research – with 11 years of investment experience, and since 2008 relocated to Boyar, where he improves the analysis and management process, as well as being in charge of institutional sales for both the research area and the management service, explains the key points about this alliance and how to plan to make a foothold, with its particular investment style, in the portfolios of the Spanish investor. Above all, because he believes that value will have have its comeback, and will shine again.

You have recently signed an asset management alliance with Mapfre AM. What will Mapfre AM bring to Boyar AM and what will Boyar AM bring to Boyar AM after the agreement?

The entire team at Boyar Asset Management is excited about entering this partnership. With Mapfre not only do we gain access to long-term patient capital allowing us to make equity investments for the long term, we will also be able to leverage their significant distribution capabilities. We are also looking forward to access to Mapfre’s expertise in both ESG investing and European equities which are two areas that interest us greatly.

Through this strategic partnership, Mapfre will gain access to our expertise in long-term catalyst driven value investing which we have been practicing since 1975. Mapfre will also gain from the knowledge of our team of seasoned investment professionals. 

Is Boyar AM looking for greater expertise in European equities thanks to Mapfre?

While we currently do not have plans to launch a European product, it is certainly something we are seriously considering as we grow. We look forward to beinging able to leverage Mapfre’s expertise in this area when the timing is right.

And are you also looking for ESG capabilities? Do you think it’s a trend with potential?

ESG is here to stay. It certainly is not a fad. Many well-respected money managers have adopted this practice and we look forward to benefiting from Mapfre’s already significant capabilities in this area.

With this alliance, will Boyar AM also seek to position itself in the Spanish market?

Absolutely. We plan on utilizing Mapre’s distribution network in Spain to target the Spanish market. We think this audience will embrace a long-term value-oriented investment style.

Boyar AM is a value asset manager and it will offer Mapfre its expertise in asset management in the US. What characteristics distinguish its investment style from other value houses, what characterizes its investment methodology in the US?

Boyar is quite different than most money managers as we take a private equity approach to public markets.  Since 1975, our flagship publication (which through another entity we sell on a subscription basis), Asset Analysis Focus (AAF), has been read regularly by some of the world’s most sophisticated investors. In keeping with AAF’s mandate of uncovering undervalued stocks, we use that same research to build and manage individualized portfolios for our money management clients. Many money management firms claim to do their own research—but we can prove it.

Based on that research, we invest in companies whose stock is trading significantly below what we believe the entire company is worth—believing that within a reasonable period of time, the stock market will reflect (or an acquirer will purchase the company for) its intrinsic value.

Unlike many value managers we are focused on identifying catalysts that we believe will help the stock ascend in value over a reasonable period of time. We believe by identifying these catalysts it helps us to avoid value traps.

Is it difficult now, with valuations at high levels in the US, to look for opportunities, undervalued companies? In this sense, what levels of liquidity do you have in your funds?

While the overall market is somewhat expensive by historical standards. We are finding many names in the small and mid-cap area that are selling at significant discounts to what we believe the company is truly worth. This market has been led by a handful of mostly mega cap technology shares, at some point the leadership will change and we believe investors like us that stick to their style through both  think and thin will be rewarded for their patience.

Value is not at its best… the performance has been bad compared to growth in recent times. Why and do you think this situation will change in the short term?

2019 has been yet another year when growth stocks have simply trounced value shares. The outperformance was consistent across all market capitalizations. The most expensive stocks continue to get more expensive, while the cheapest companies utilizing any acceptable metrics keep getting less expensive. At some point this trend will reverse course, as it always does. We just can’t predict the timing. On an absolute basis, value shares (just like prior to the dotcom crash) have posted respectable numbers but compared to growth stocks they significantly underperformed. Value investors were rewarded for their patience after the dotcom bubble burst and value investing enjoyed a renaissance. We see no reason why history will not once again repeat itself.

In Spain in recent years, managers have emerged with this style of investment and a lot of talent (Cobas AM, Magallanes, azValor, Horos AM …): do you know Spanish talent? Do you have any Spanish manager value among your references?

These are certainly people I know of by reputation and I have spoken at conferences where they have also presented, but I unfortunately do not know them personally. I would welcome the opportunity to meet some of them.

In an environment of increasing competition and polarisation in the asset management industry (and where scale matters more than ever)… do you believe that alliances are a good alternative to mergers between entities?

Anytime two smart organizations are able to share knowledge, ideas and best practices it is a win for everyone involved.

Do you think we will see a lot of M&A in the sector? Is a strong consolidation necessary? Or will we see more alliances and cooperation as a way of joining forces in this scenario?

I think due to compressing margins there will certainly be consolidation in the sector. Scale certainly matters, but I also think investors appreciate boutiques like ours that are able to invest outside of the mainstream. They understand as the great Sir. John Templeton once said, “If you buy the same securities everyone else is buying, you will have the same results as everyone else.

Four Ways to Invest in the CleanTech Revolution

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

Axa verde
Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Cuatro formas de invertir en la revolución CleanTech 

As the impact of climate change takes its toll on the planet, consumers, governments and corporations are all assessing their environmental practices and developing new clean technologies, according to an analysis by Amanda O’Toole, a Senior Portfolio Manager of the AXA Investment Managers Framlington Clean Economy Strategy.

CleanTech refers to companies that seek to increase performance, productivity and efficiency by maximizing the positive effects on the environment. With the world’s population rapidly increasing and fixed resources in danger of running low, the need for CleanTech solutions has never been greater. In fact, demand is so strong, that the global CleanTech market is anticipated to reach US$3 trillion by 2025, significantly up from US$601bn in 2014.

What does this mean for investors?

O’Toole, who is also a thought-leader within AXA IM’s Thematic Equities team of investment experts mentions that there is a growing social awareness of the pressures on scarce natural resources and the need for greenhouse gas emission reduction. “Businesses that are prepared to respond to this paradigm shift in how we perceive our environment should enjoy a sustainable, competitive advantage by reducing their input costs over the long-term. These moves offer significant growth potential in the decades to come, along with exciting potential new opportunities for investors along the way.”

As a result of this changing dynamic, they have identified four key areas which they believe will provide innovative, new investment opportunities: sustainable transport, recycling and waste reduction, smart energy and responsible nutrition. “With this universe expanding at more than 10% per annum – a very attractive rate compared to other industries –the structural growth opportunities can be significant.”

Sustainable transport

Across the world, the demand for sustainable transport is increasing, providing investors with ample investment opportunities in electric vehicles, battery technologies and emission reduction systems.

“The benefit of investing in these companies is already evident. During the recent trade tensions, electrification as a secular trend outperformed the broader automotive industry and we believe this is on track to continue. Globally, electric vehicles are anticipated to grow at a rate of 33% by 2030 and with the cost of lithium-ion batteries falling by 35% over the past year, the potential for sustainable transport is on the rise.”

A stock they like in this area is Aptiv, a global technology company that develops safer, greener and more connected solutions. Headquartered in Dublin, Aptiv delivers the software capabilities, advanced computing platforms and networking architecture that makes mobility work.

Recycling and waste reduction

The plight caused by plastics and growing electronic waste has been dominating environmental headlines in recent years. With approximately 8 million metric tonnes of plastic entering the oceans each year and only an estimated 20% of electronic devices recycled per annum, consumers and governments are waking up to the need for change.

“This change is starting to take shape. In July 2018, Seattle became the first U.S. city to ban plastic utensils and straws, and its actions have now been followed by other cities such as San Diego, where Styrofoam food and drink containers have been banned. We believe that because of ongoing action, we are likely to see the investable universe for compostable materials continue to expand.” 

A stock they like in this space is Smurfit Kappa, a FTSE 100 company that is one of the world’s leading providers of paper-based packaging. Smurfit Kappa is perhaps best known for its Bag-in-Box products, which offer more sustainable packaging for many industries such as wine, juice, liquid eggs, dairy and non-food applications such as motor oil and chemicals.

Smart energy

The necessity and demand for greener homes is growing, helping to provide the impetus and resources for the development of energy efficient technologies. This is creating investment opportunities in renewables, greener homes and efficient factories.

Notably, there has been an acceleration of interest in offshore wind development in the U.S., which historically has lagged Europe in adopting this form of technology. Massachusetts, for instance, recently approved contracts for an 800 megawatt (MW) offshore wind project, while New York State announced in July it had reached an agreement for two large offshore wind projects off the coast of Long Island. Momentum in this area is clearly building.

Responsible nutrition

The impact of unsustainable food production has put the planet in a delicate position. However, as O’Toole mentions, attitudes are changing. Companies are exploring new ways to meet the growing demands of rising populations while limiting the use of scarce water and land.

This has led some experts to algae, with some believing it could soon become a major source of the world’s protein. Growing ten times faster than terrestrial plants, algae does not require fresh water, can provide more iron than beef, and does not compete with other crops for land. The potential for algae is still in its infancy, but with ongoing developments the algae products market is anticipated to reach $5.2bn by 2023.

Furthermore, they believe that companies that are innovating to help support sustainable business practices – such as specialist ingredients firms that are shifting towards more natural ingredients and reducing the use of artificial products – are in an optimal position to perform well, despite the broader economic slowdown.

“We live in an uncertain world which gives investors little confidence from a macro or geopolitical perspective. Against this backdrop, it gives us comfort to invest in high quality businesses that benefit from clear structural growth trends within the Clean Economy.” O’Toole concludes.

 

 

Schroders Sells its Stake in RWC Partners

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

Screen Shot 2019-10-30 at 11
Foto: Pxhere CC0. Schroders vende su participación en RWC Partners

RWC Partners announced that it has signed a definitive agreement for Schroders to sell their equity in RWC back to the Company and to RWC’s new long-term partner, Lincoln Peak Capital.  Subject to regulatory approval, the transaction will see Schroders completely exit their equity stake in RWC Partners.

Dan Mannix, CEO of RWC commented: “We would like to thank Schroders for the support they have shown our organisation over the last 9 years.  In Lincoln Peak, we welcome a new shareholder to RWC who we have known for many years.  Lincoln Peak is a very attractive partner for us who has committed to our organisation for the next decade and beyond.  Our priority has been to secure a shareholder who supports the commitments we have to our clients and investment teams.  We are proud to differentiate our organisation through being independent, private and owned by very long-term shareholders who define success by the quality of services we provide to our clients and fulfilling responsibilities to our other stakeholders.”

Tony Leness, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Lincoln Peak commented: “We feel very fortunate to have the opportunity to partner with RWC shareholders and RWC’s exceptional investment teams, management and staff. Our long-term relationship with the Company provided us with a unique window to understand  RWC’s culture and future potential, allowing us to play an active role in assisting the key stakeholders to effect this transaction in a manner that will allow RWC to retain its independence and successful trajectory.”

Seth Brennan, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Lincoln Peak added: “We believe that RWC’s entrepreneurial culture and commitment to providing its talented investment teams with clear incentives, world-class support and the independence to focus on client outcomes is designed to deliver exceptional, long-term results for clients. This transaction and commitments made by various parties preserves RWC’s successful business model and improves the alignment between all of RWC’s stakeholders, positioning the Company for long-term stability and continued success.”

Based in London, Miami and Singapore RWC Partners is a privately owned, independent asset management organization with 18 billion in assets under management. 

Boston-based Lincoln Peak Capital is a private organisation that specialises in making long-term, minority investments in high quality asset managers.  Founded in 2008, Lincoln Peak facilitates ownership transitions in a manner that aligns the interests of a firm’s key constituents and positions it for long-term stability and success.
 

Jane Fraser Named President of Citi and Head of Global Consumer Banking

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

Citi JANE Nombramiento_0
Jane Fraser, courtesy photo. Jane Fraser

Citi CEO Michael Corbat announced that he “asked Jane Fraser to serve as President of Citi, a role that has been open since earlier this year. Stephen Bird has informed me of his decision to leave Citi to pursue an opportunity outside our firm, so Jane will also become CEO of Global Consumer Banking. Stephen will be available over the next few weeks to ensure a smooth transition.”

Ernesto Torres Cantu, currently CEO of Citibanamex, will succeed Jane as CEO of Latin America.  “Ernesto is well prepared to take on the role of CEO of the region.” Corbat added. According to him, an announcement about the leadership in Mexico will be made in the near future.

Jane has been at Citi for 15 years, since she joined from McKinsey to run Client Strategy in the Corporate and Investment Bank. “During the financial crisis, she led our Corporate Strategy and M&A group and, in many ways, Jane helped shape the company we are today. She subsequently ran two of our businesses, the Global Private Bank followed by U.S. Consumer and Commercial Banking & Mortgages”.

Most recently, Jane served as CEO of Latin America, where she and Ernesto have been overseeing Citi’s substantial investment in Citibanamex, which has strengthened their franchise as well as improved our products and services.

Ernesto is a 30-year veteran of Citi, having joined as a corporate banker in 1989. He was appointed CEO of Citibanamex in 2014. He has an excellent track record of driving business results while also prioritizing our culture and controls.

“Working together, we have made tremendous progress. I remain committed to leading our firm in the coming years and look forward to working even more closely with Jane in her new roles. We will continue to execute our strategy so we can deliver the results our stakeholders expect and deserve.” Corbat concluded.

Global Interest Rates: How Low Can You Go?

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

foto tipos
Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Tipos de interés globales: ¿Cómo de bajo puedes ir?

Central banks are rushing to provide additional support as the economic outlook darkens. However, there are growing fears that policy loosening might be doing more harm than good at present, warns Aberdeen Standard Investments in its recent “Macroscope”.

This so-called ‘reversal rate’ at which rate cuts become counterproductive is seen as working through a number of channels, including weak bank profitability; credit misallocation; softer household and corporate confidence; and low returns on saving. “But although there are some justifiable concerns over the unintended consequences of lower rates, we need to take into account the whole picture”, says the asset manager.

Indeed, most empirical evidence does not suggest that the costs of lower interest rates are outweighing their benefits, suggesting that policymakers have not reached a reversal rate (yet). This debate is a symptom of how much pressure is being put on monetary policy.

Then, how low can you go?

Historically, there have been concerns that a move into negative rates would prompt deposit flight from banks. However, says ASI, there have been few signs of an explosion in cash under mattresses. Instead, the fear has shifted to bank profitability: “banks have been unwilling (or legally unable) to fully pass on negative interest rates to depositors, providing a squeeze on net interest margins and profits”.

The fear is that this could undermine capital positions in the sector, leading to a reduced capacity to lend and driving a tightening in credit conditions. Besides, according to the asset manager, rate cuts beyond certain levels could sap confidence, as households and businesses see these as a sign of economic malaise.

“In economies with high domestic savings rates the lower return on these could encourage even more cautious activity”. Finally, the BIS has been keen to highlight the risks of credit misallocation as interest rates fall ever lower.ai

Ever-lower interest rates may well generate unintended negative consequences, but ASI points out that there are mitigating forces at play that need to be taken into account. For example, the squeeze on bank margins might be offset by higher lending, not to mention a boost from asset holdings.

Indeed, while the overall evidence is mixed, most credible studies do not support the conclusion that interest rates have fallen to a level at which the unintended consequences outweigh the benefits. “However, the fact that these exist adds to the case for fiscal policy to take more of the strain. Sadly, it does not feel as if governments are stepping up to the plate”, says ASI.

Another problem for banks

On the banks’ front, the fear is that lower interest rates could weigh on net interest margins and in extremis push deposits out of the sector. This might limit banks’ ability to pass through lower interest rates to the real economy and in some cases even force them to contract their balance sheets, lowering credit availability.

What banks need most in order to maximise the effectiveness of lower policy rates is 1) demand for credit, 2) an ability to lend at high leverage ratios and 3) for that the lending to be done at higher net interest margins – where curve steepness helps a great deal.

According to ASI, our starting point is that many banking systems, particularly those in Europe, are already struggling for profitability a decade on from the financial crisis and not just because of crimped margins. Post-crisis regulatory capital requirements more than quadrupled in some cases and banks needed to raise and retain substantial levels of new capital in order to comply.

Lending is now done at much lower multiples that require higher margins to maintain profitability. “However, weak growth, economic uncertainty, ageing populations and already high levels of debt have been drivers of lower demand for credit through the cycle”.

Reduced profitability since the crisis has affected banks worlwide. However, the problems have been most acute outside the US. The asset manager thinks that bond yields are a useful measure of market expectations for long-term growth and inflation, so it is no surprise that as European bond yields moved deeply negative, bank stocks continued to underperform other equities. “The cocktail of low growth, inflation and rates is clearly an unpalatable one for this sector”.

Bonos europeos

Gillian Tiltman, Neuberger Berman: “The Real Estate Sector is The First to Respond to Changes in The Way People Live and Work”

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

cell-tower-2252153_960_720
Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Gillian Tiltman, Neuberger Berman: “El sector inmobiliario es el primero en responder a los cambios en la forma de vivir y trabajar de las personas”

Gillian Tiltman, portfolio manager of the two Neuberger Berman REITS strategies is convinced that the listed real estate sector is the first to react to the social and demographic themes that are changing the world. Thus, in an exclusive interview for Funds Society, the manager explains the strong potential that they expect in the non-core sectors in the listed real estate investment segment (REITS).

“We think that real estate is the first sector to respond on how people are living and working”, explains Tiltman.

Among others, data storage is one of the main new industries that they are taking advantage of. “If you think about cell towers, there are our largest holdings in both our global and us funds, the expanding global broadband usage requires robust cell tower infrastructure and this next generation 5G technology build out is already very much underway.”, affirms the expert.

Tiltman also highlights the expected growth rates close to 40% in data consumption in the United States until 2023. “ It is not just about people having more and more devices, is the amount of data that they are using. When we are thinking about cell towers, we are leasing space in the air, the more the data usage the more you need to lease. Is 0,02 megabites to send a mail is 11.000 times that to watch a 30 min TV show in Netflix”, explains the portfolio manager.

Another of the non-core sectors with a lot of potential is the industrial segment that has been developed in response to the rise of e-commerce. Strong sales in e-commerce have negatively impacted the traditional real estate sector due to shop closures and bankruptcies in the real economy, but, nevertheless, it has caused the development of the industrial segment to meet the last mile distribution needs, in which the Neuberger Berman REITS funds have also invested.

On the other hand, the socio-demographic changes of the millennial generation and the ageing of the population have resulted in an overweight of the US residential sector: “Getting married used to be a real driver of the US residential market to buy a single family home. Now people are getting married later and later or not getting married at all and even when they do so, this is not going to be the catalyst to buy a home. They want flexibility, they don’t necessarily want that to be tied down to home ownership.”, comments Tiltman.

In this sense, a bigger demand in professional rental services from the new generations stands out “What we are seeing now is that when people do get married, or having children and they want access to school and they want to live in little more suburban environment they still want to rent. But they want to do that in a professional way. They don’t want to rent just from a person, they want to rent from a company and that is why we are overweight in single family rentals.”.

The segment of manufactured housing is another one that is overweight in its portfolio, due to its popularity among more senior population and for being “one of the bastions of affordable housing still the United States, ” says Tiltman

Although the development of the non-core segments has mainly focused on the United States, sectors such as student residences and personal storage are non-core sectors in the United Kingdom, which have helped alleviate the lower growth and uncertainty generated by Brexit. “There is still robust demand for universities from UK nationals and non- EU foreigners and that is what we are concentrating on”, declares Tiltman.

As for the impact of the macro moment, Tiltman questions the idea that the real estate sector can be considered cyclical and highlights the importance of investing globally. “When you invest globally the cycle stops mattering that much because there are so many different so called cycle to investing. In our global fund, for example, if you think on San Francisco offices is a total different cycle than NY offices, to Miami hotels so we believe that it can be an evergreen asset class”.

As per the advantages offered by this asset class in the composition of the portfolios, Tiltman highlights three: liquidity, performance and exposure. “It is an asset class to hold in a portfolio alongside bonds, alongside global equities, alongside physical real estate as well.”, affirms. In terms of correlation with equities  it is high because they are listed securities, but their current levels are at pre-crisis levels close to 0.5.

At this regard, the manager adds: “The longer you hold the securities the more direct real estate like you are going to became so that is why we take the view that understanding the true value of the asset is key and that is our investment style”.

Another advantage of this asset class is that listed real estate investments are required to pay to pay 90% of their capital income as dividends “this means they have to have a very good capital disciplineand  they are never forced buyers are private real estates companies might be.”, explains the expert.,

Finally, Tiltman is optimistic about the outlook for this asset category despite the strong returns already recorded. “There is plenty of earnings growth coming in different sectors, REITS are trading at low multiple versus equities, we have seen great signs to show how REITS have been resilient late cycle and also in recession”, concluded the portfolio manager.